The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, is a horror result for the Morrison government, crediting Labor with a lead of 56-44, out from 53-47 in the final poll in December. Labor is up three on the primary vote and the Coalition down two, to 41% and 34% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%.
Scott Morrison has plunged five on approval to 39% and is up six on disapproval to 58%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% and down two on disapproval, also to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is cut from 45-36 to 43-41. The poll also finds Albanese leading Morrison 33% to 32% as best to lead the country out of the pandemic and 39% to 21% for handling climate change, with Morrison leading 33% to 31% on creating jobs and growing the economy and 31% to 26% on dealing with the threat of China.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1526.
It’s easy to gloat at these numbers, but I’ll stick to remembering 2019. What’s more interesting is asking what Morrison will do in the face of them. My guess is he’ll do absolutely nothing differently than he has been doing, unless doing it even more counts as doing it differently. Our Dress-up King of the Playroom will make himself believe he just has to work harder, for himself that is. (All the while people keep dying on his watch.) Can Morrison convince his people (that’s not us, btw) that it’s better for them if they let him continue, that this will turn around? I expect Barty like analogies, winning from 1-5 down.
As for challengers for the kingship, we had that discussion earlier this month. Frydenberg is Victorian but Dutton is a Queenslander. (What’s the adjective from the word Queensland? Be nice.) I keep reading that the LNP need to do well in Queensland to have a chance. If that thinking exists within the Libs then Dutton may get the nod. (A campaign run by Dutton would be something else.) And he might like having been PM for a month or two. But the other problem is the logistics in replacing Morrison. What’s the quorum for that? When does parliament meet again?
It’s going to be an interesting week.
So, let’s assume the worst (best) case scenario comes to pass. Scomo is trounced, Dutton and Frydenberg lose their seats, Hunt has already retired. Who becomes opposition leader?
Asha @ #103 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 10:50 pm
Angus Taylor!?!
Asha @ #102 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 9:50 pm
At a guess, the most senior woman they can get who will take the job. They’ll be in turmoil and won’t know how to be an effective opposition. A woman will be easier to ignore and easier to replace once they figure out what they want to do.
Asha @ #102 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 10:20 pm
Which Coalition party has the most seats in this scenario? Could be Barnaby 😉
@Asha – who is the Brendan Nelson-like sacrificial lamb?
Funnily, the name that keeps popping into my head in the event there is a leadership vacancy and vacuum at the same time.
Paul Fletcher… the irony being … obvious.
Asha, I’d say Birmingham, who’d then move to lower house.
Seriously, I am hesitant to put the cart before the horse and start post-election leadership speculation but, if there is a crushing defeat where the obvious successors are all gone, the next leader is whichever random surviving frontbencher who normally would never be leader puts their hand up and they will very much be caretakers who are just there to keep the seat warm until the party is competitive again. Any future leader with serious realistic ambitions in the mix will wait for their time.
Catmomma
Do you read!?! I had a winky face at the end of it! Like this: It means, I was joking!
And I’ll comment if I want to, thanks for nothing.
————
While I’m not sure the relevance of the wink-joking with respect to my comment, i assume you agreed it had zero relevance to mundo’s views but it was a worthwhile “joke” to pretend is was.
Weird.
…but obviously, it’s important to see this info as a reflection, rather than prediction.
But it’s fun to speculate.
Asha, I take it your enthusiastic reply means you think I’m engaging in a little bit of motivated reasoning! I guess May is probably more likely.
But I think most Australians would like to see it sooner rather than later. Someone posted an independent’s campaign video for a rural seat that mentioned foreign policy as a reason to vote for her rather than the government — if a legitimate candidate thinks average Australians are worried about foreign policy, that’s crazy.
The other thing to remember about 1996 is that the Liberals dominated newspoll for years and after 1993 did not trust the polling.
Rakali,
I don’t really appreciate your condescending and borderline misogynistic replies. But it’s what I’ve come to expect from you.
Another leadership contender could be Sussan Ley.
Asha, in a best/worst case, the opposition leader will be Zali Stegall… (here I’m surely dreaming)
C@t:
Yeah, I was thinking Angus Taylor or Dan Tehan. Possibly even Alex Hawke.
Late Riser:
That pretty much leaves them Karen Andrews. Basically every other senior female Liberal is in the Senate.
I suppose Marise Payne could always run in the Cook by-election if she needs a House seat, assuming Morrison doesn’t pull a Billy McMahon and stick around for another decade or two. Which actually could happen, now that I think about it. What the hell else is he going to do?
The underground gossip is that the LNP know they’re cactus and are trying their level best to make sure Frydenburg is re-elected so he can become LOTO. Makes sense.
The Liberals are terminally split. Their moderate cohorts are openly running against the Heavy. This is an electoral fact now in the safest Lib-held urban seats, coast-to-coast. The loony wing has set up their own camp and are agitating against what remains of the official Party. The State LNP divisions either barely exist (WA, ACT and NT), are in open revolt against the Federal Liberals (NSW and SA), have surrendered to their own ideological stupidities (Victoria and QLD) or are disavowing their Liberal past (Tasmania).
If the Newscorp ratings were reproduced in an election, the LNP would be in line for their biggest thrashing since Chifley led Labor….since the Liberals were formed.
Since they are without any doubt the worst government we’ve seen since
Federation, this would be a very fitting result.
Scumo may try a complete Rebranding and say that as a result of Hillsongs legal problems he has seen the light and given up his pentacostalism and become a rastaferian with a dred lock wig.
Attempted voter suppression and dirty tricks by the Liberals at this election will need to be closely monitored.
And, yeah, obviously it’s more likely than not that if Labor does win, it’ll just be your standard comfortable majority rather than a full-on rout. But a man can dream.
Asha
That could depend on how the teals go because if they picked up half a dozen seats which is way more than i expect but if that happened then its a hiding.
Piechartgate starting to be a meme.
Apparently, the Oz have been somewhat careless in their pictorial presentation.
MB:
Good point!
BK @ #69 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 7:28 pm
I was just wondering when we will see him next.
He’s going to get very cranky when the questions start.
I’ll make the prediction that, if the Coalition lose the election, Hawke will put his hand up for Deputy Leader. At least just to get himself further up that ladder. He clearly has ambitions.
Was Labor under Shorten ever ahead by this much in Newspoll early in 2019?
I guess the Liberals could panic, Dutton or Frydenberg could start counting numbers and so on.
Morrison will be begging his pals over in Murdoch land to come up with some dirt file on Albo.
Guessing too that Newspoll tomorrow won’t be mentioned on 2GB, certainly not by Ben Fordham.
Chinese New Year is the year of the Tiger….
“can I propose same slightly sane and moderately credible speculation that he will quietly visit the governor general in the next few days to prevent a knife attack?”
That would be great. From my observations the ALP is ready to go any time.
Also, it would be a good distraction for Morriscum for issues around kids going back to school.
Of course if this was an ALP incumbent Gov going to an election there would already be a substantial amount of #leadershit chatter going on. With the way Albo is shaping up that would obviously be too stupid for words now.
And honestly, the Libs just don’t have the depth in their “team” to be able to knife Morriscum.
Interesting ABC news has now done two mentions that the business assistance announced in NSW is purely a state thing and the Feds have refused to be involved, and seems there is some quite open degree of grumpiness from the NSW govt.
Be interesting to see if the Feds get involved in flood relief in SA, particularly give the effect of that on supply issues in the NT and W.A. ???
“As Barnaby Joyce defends decision not to provide extra economic support [to small business]”
I’ve never seen a conservative (well, radical right really) government refuse to help small business like this, in this particular time.
They’ve lost the GPs, now they’re losing SMEs.
I’d say they’re basically stupid/ideological/robbing the bank now while they can get away
Here’s another prediction, watch for Morrison and Hunt to suddenly make RATs free for all people with a Medicare card, betcha that one is imminent
Going back over some earlier posts I found these numbers for this Newspoll.
PVs: L/NP 34 (-2) ALP 41 (+3) GRN 11 (+1) ON 3 (0)
TPP: L/NP 44 (-3) ALP 56 (+3)
Two things leap out. The first is just gloating/bragging, but from these numbers Labor’s primary vote isn’t very different than the L/NP two party preferred vote. The second is that the net change of primary vote numbers is positive. (-2+3+1=+2) Does that mean there’s been a 2% drop in undecideds? If people are hardening their views this is doubly harsh for Morrison.
It means there has been a 2% drop in “others”.
This is a bad poll for labor. It risks complacency.
Good for albo, and tip of the hat to him, BUT they have to keep their eye on the prize!
IF they can make a big swing happen onthe day, Labor need to start building systemic reforms into Australian politics.
IE, break up murdoch, and pass truth in media reforms. I really want to see a decade of progressive government.
Morrison won’t be going to the GG any time soon, unless he would use it as a force majeure move to get his chosen candidates in to seats which haven’t settled on one yet.
NSW people might have noticed today the state Liberal Treasurer Matt Kean slamming the Feds over the lack of economic support for small businesses in this state, then again Kean and Morrison don’t like each other. Perrottet too is now working hand in glove with Dan Andrews – hardly something Morrison and Frydenberg would approve of, you’d assume.
Finally, the NSW state byelections on February 12, a fair chance state Labor could take Bega off the Liberals, running a good candidate, the local 60 year old GP, Albo was there a few days ago with Chris Minns.
Ah. Thanks WB.
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sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:34 pm
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-3) ALP 56 (+3) #auspol
”
Still not as bad as what Howard government got in September 2007, when it was 58-42 to ALP and when Howard was tapped on Shoulder to which he implied GFY.
Don’t remember the ALP ever being that far ahead on primaries in 2019. If anything they were behind most of the time and that always gave the Liberals a sense of hope.
The Smearstralian reporting that Scummo will be doing a blitz of ABC interviews. 🙂
Frankly, I think we may be looking at him doing a fairly aggressive NPC appearance this week. Back to Shouty Scotty maybe? Not sure that will work very well for him.
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 11:03 pm
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Ashasays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:35 pm
Welp. Looks like it’s going to be a May election.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
·
1m
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-3) ALP 56 (+3) #auspol
”
More likely September.
Let’s go for 60-40… we need a big buffer against the coming scare, smear and disinformation campains from the Government and its media and business allies.
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:36 pm
”
Seriously though 16% are still unsure. Baffling to put it mildly.
“Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”….
Step by step we are advancing to the finish line…. Focus, determination, clarity of objectives, with a Social Democratic program, a high quality team… and the majority of the People on board!
@south – I doubt anyone here or in Labor HQ is any way complacent.
But it gives hope to the troops and its a sign the Government is on the nose and Labor’s messaging is getting through to voters.
And are people really… really still thinking September could happen? Lol, come on. Yes, Morrison is a craven and sliperry weasel, but he will be ridiculed to a truly catastrophic defeat if he tries it.
Yeah, interesting graphics.
David Pope@davpope · 34m
Yes, polls are rubbish, tools for massaging public opinion, but the way Murdoch’s papers skew their pie chart visuals when they don’t like the numbers, it’s almost like they’re a state-run media outfit (pie charts that match the actual numbers overlayed, right)
Morrison really should have gone to Hawaii.
“southsays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 11:16 pm
This is a bad poll for labor. It risks complacency.”…
The ALP have been well ahead of the Coalition in the 2PP for quite some time now, across the various pollsters…. Have you noticed any “complacency” in Albo and his Team?
Thanks again WB. That raises different questions. So if there’s a drop in “others”, and I keep hearing that “Teals” are popular, how does that square with a net gain for ALP(+3) GRN(+1)? Teals would be “others”, wouldn’t they? Were “Teals” not sampled for? Are “Teals” just a distraction and not as popular after all? I’m missing something.
“Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 11:26 pm
Morrison really should have gone to Hawaii.”…
… and stayed there….