Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Newspoll adds its weight to a grim new year polling picture for the Morrison government.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, is a horror result for the Morrison government, crediting Labor with a lead of 56-44, out from 53-47 in the final poll in December. Labor is up three on the primary vote and the Coalition down two, to 41% and 34% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison has plunged five on approval to 39% and is up six on disapproval to 58%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% and down two on disapproval, also to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is cut from 45-36 to 43-41. The poll also finds Albanese leading Morrison 33% to 32% as best to lead the country out of the pandemic and 39% to 21% for handling climate change, with Morrison leading 33% to 31% on creating jobs and growing the economy and 31% to 26% on dealing with the threat of China.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1526.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Dr Bonham..

    #Newspoll No federal government has polled a 44 or worse 2PP this close to an election and survived. (That doesn’t mean it is impossible.) The closest were Howard 01 and Morrison 19, who each did so about eight months out.

  2. Joseph Solomon, zoom.

    I thought I’d eliminated all our Blackberry, by hand and with a weeding fork. They’re mighty persistent buggers though.

    I did just about totally weed everything from the rock face on the side of the road up to my area and have been rewarded with a thriving colony of Flannel Flowers where there were none before. My crowning achievement that I see every time I drive home.

  3. @Zerlo – only one way to find out…

    FTR – based on what I’m hearing anecdotally, I buy the Government is in deep shit… and this is reflective of such a predicament.

    While 2019 is ALWAYS important to remember, sometimes what’s pretty obvious is pretty obvious.

  4. @Zoomster at 9:41

    I have a great mate who had 4,000 acrres in feral goat territory. He culled the coloured goats but left the white ones. He is the only farmer in the area that can access his creek (6 kilometres) and River (14 kilometres). He will however cull the white ones in times of drought. The goats actually prefer thistles etc to grass. Over 70 years it has worked out very well for him.

  5. As I said the other day: we’re winning.

    And before anyone smugly condescends that I am counting my chickens too early:

    1. I said we’re winning, I didn’t say we’ve won. It’s still possible to lose from a winning position.
    2. I think I’ve earned enough of a reputation to not just be dismissed as a naive and overly-optimistic rusted-on.

  6. “I wonder what Steelydan, Nostramus, and Taylor made think of the latest poll?”

    Ask them. They’ve been here all night hiding behind some buckets of glysophate.

  7. No party has won with a primary vote that low either.

    The only LNP government to Win with less than 40% was Howard in 1998 (39.5%).

  8. Australians went on holidays, ruminated about the Morrison Government and their decision is in at this stage.

    The Libs still have bribery to come.

    But, other issues apart from wallet are to the fore atm

  9. And now Billionaire Stokes West Australian rag reckons we are going to miss out on paying homage to Ash Barty later in the year because that party pooper McGowan won’t open the borders on the 5th of February. Don’t they get advanced notice of newspoll results?

  10. Leave Morrison where he is.
    I have theory, pretty shitful but anyway.
    Australians have this dumb idea they vote for the PM so if they vote him/her in they’re the ones to remove him/her.
    From the RGR wars there has only been one sitting PM to face the electorate, Julia Gillard and she only got back by the skin of her teeth. Bare with me.
    Rudd was elected, lost the leadership, regained it and lost the election.
    The rabbit won an election but was then rolled by Turnbull, not facing the electorate again to be replaced by the current moron. Both winning but only just.
    If the moron does survive I think he’ll be flogged, possibly losing his seat Even if he retains his seat and loses he’ll stick his tail between his legs and there will be a by election.
    If deposed we’ll have another 3 years of these fekwits until the the highly educated voting masses again get the chance to eject the PM they “vote for”
    Told you it was a lousy theory.

  11. This is a good reward for Albo’s hard work. Not least in getting himself in shape and fighting fit. It has taken years to undo the work of the Shortenites.

  12. Now the argument for glyphosate.

    It’s a cropping argument away from water courses.

    Glyphosate allows you to crop with less tillage, this allows an increase in soil organic matters which is an increase in soil carbon, an increase in soil health, an increase in worms and an increase in yields.

  13. Not sure even changing leaders at this stage of the cycle.

    The latest election date, May 21 needs to be called before April 14 (given Easter is 15-18) so effectively you are looking at 8 weeks.

    The clocking is ticking and given Morrison’s history, he will not make a decision quickly, he will defer until it effectively becomes too late. And plus, he thinks God will help him win.

  14. @Bert and LNP Parliamentary critters only care about their own survival. They only care about who the people “elect” as PM when it’s the other lot doing it.

    The danger for Frydenberg and, especially, Dutton, is Morrison could cost both of them their seats (Kooyong is still likely a bridge too far) – if the situation in private polling is even close to this, there is next to no chance Dutton will hold his seat. This is obviously pure speculation, but that gives Dutton an additional justification to consider his position.

  15. Of course, the next one will go back down to 55-45 or 54-46 and we’ll hear about how the polls are turning back now 😉

    Seriously though, it should definitely be said that no matter what happens on election day, the 2PP is not going to look like that. Narrowing will happen between now and then.

  16. I managed to clear my lawn of khaki burr by pouring boiling water on it. Turns the plants to mush instantly. It also works for bindii. I will need to get out there with the kettle again as a few “new” weeds have appeared in the lawn – but by hitting them with the boiling water each day, it will be easy to keep on top of them. The problem is that the neighbouring yard is full of it and it self sows in my yard.

  17. Re Kirky at 10.08 pm

    Election on 21 May could be called on Easter Monday, 18 April. Reps is scheduled to sit 11 to 14 April.

  18. Wat Tyler says:
    Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 10:10 pm

    Seriously though, it should definitely be said that no matter what happens on election day, the 2PP is not going to look like that. Narrowing will happen between now and then.

    I have no doubt the two remaining WA state liberals will be receptive to that argument.

  19. Kirky,

    Dutton and Frydenberg might be viewing their political life rushing before their eyes.

    Does changing Leader make it more likely they will survive.

    Dutton is the one in most danger. But, those pesky Teals have Josh in their sights.

  20. Dr Doolittle @ #42 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 9:42 pm

    Re Kirky at 10.08 pm

    Election on 21 May could be called on Easter Monday, 18 April. Reps is scheduled to sit 11 to 14 April.

    The election will be called on the weekend. The writs will be issued on the Monday.

    As I said in the previous thread, I think it’s unlikely he will visit the GG on Easter Weekend but if Morrison has his heart set on May 21, he can just go the weekend before and make it a six week campaign, instead of a five week one. It’s no biggie.

  21. ScoMo now has an illustrious career awaiting doing cooking demonstrations at shopping centres and chook shed assembly at Bunnings.

    Jen can write that long awaited book “Handy hints for doing the washing and ironing at Kirribilli House”.

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