Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Newspoll adds its weight to a grim new year polling picture for the Morrison government.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, is a horror result for the Morrison government, crediting Labor with a lead of 56-44, out from 53-47 in the final poll in December. Labor is up three on the primary vote and the Coalition down two, to 41% and 34% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison has plunged five on approval to 39% and is up six on disapproval to 58%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% and down two on disapproval, also to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is cut from 45-36 to 43-41. The poll also finds Albanese leading Morrison 33% to 32% as best to lead the country out of the pandemic and 39% to 21% for handling climate change, with Morrison leading 33% to 31% on creating jobs and growing the economy and 31% to 26% on dealing with the threat of China.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1526.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. We can’t get too ahead of ourselves now. The power of incumbency is enormous in these days of raiding the treasury to promote yourself.

  3. I use glycosphate to kill Kikuyu grass. But I wear gloves, mask, long pant etc. I out all clothes through the wash and I shower, including hair wash, immediately that I finish.

  4. Boerwar mentions the knife draw… It looks increasingly like the only chance the Prime Minister will have of (a) getting in the history books for a good thing (namely, first full term PM since Howard) and (b) getting his pet bill through (i.e. the Religious Discrimination bill) will be if he makes it to the election whole and in one piece. Since the social medias are rife with insane and incredible speculation that he’ll go full term, can I propose same slightly sane and moderately credible speculation that he will quietly visit the governor general in the next few days to prevent a knife attack? He probably has a genuine belief in his own greatness and the polls’ inaccuracy.

  7. Technically @Wat – 2019 was called on a Thursday and the writs issued the same day (I think the first time since 83 that’s happened).

  8. Only 56:44!

    The Murdoch media, the 9-SMH-Age network, the 7 network, and the public broadcasters: emaciated ABC and wokest USBS will do their best to “balance” by concentrating on PM curries, tennis, or anything else.

  12. But who can they replace Scotty with?
    Potato – he is less popular than Scotty.
    Josh – He’s in deep trouble in his home seat. I was driving around his electorate today and he has booked out every billboard and phonebooth, including a massive one around the corner from his house (probably makes his kids happy). Also there is the Jewish thing which might cause issues with the extreme Right inside the party.
    Then the cupboard in cabinet gets very bare.
    Dan Tehan – maybe, but I suspect he is a bit low on wattage
    Ken Wyatt – that would interesting but not happening
    Hunt is retiring
    Alex Hawke – banning Novax is hardly what built a Prime Ministership on.
    Karen Andrews – not switched on enough
    Angus Taylor has water issues
    Trudge has ex lover issues
    Lay is off in the clouds flying
    And the rest are Nationals or Senators. So the only thing saving Scotty is a lack of rival who could improve things.

  13. There are nearly four months (and possibly eight, if the House election is delayed until September) and reading into this poll would be highly premature.

    Trump trailed by 15 points in some polls after he contracted COVID-19 and that was only about five weeks before the election. In the end he lost the popular vote by only four points and nearly won the Electoral College.

    And in 2019, Morrison won after not winning ANY Newspolls. Who’s to say this can’t be repeated?

  14. Feels more like 1996 than 2019.

    The first polls in 2019 showed the first signs of Liberal party recovery there is none in this poll.

  16. jt1983 @ #57 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 9:50 pm

    Technically @Wat – 2019 was called on a Thursday and the writs issued the same day (I think the first time since 83 that’s happened).

    Oh ok, I’ve honestly forgotten the details of the firing of the starting pistol of the last election. In that case, if he had his heart set on May 21 but didn’t want to visit the GG on Easter weekend but didn’t want to go the weekend before, he could pop in on the Thursday before then.

  17. Things like unable to get RATs during a pandemic and then having to pay for them is a killer punch.

    Whoever is advising the Coalition needs to be sacked.

  18. Nostradamus,
    You probably thought Howard could pull his stones out of the fire in 2007. Instead he lost government and he lost his own seat.

  20. Not much time left for Scomo to turn this around. Sure, anything could happen in the next four months, but the government is presently in a far scarier position than they were around this time in 2019.

    I reckon the big problem facing Morrison from here on in is that he’s passed that event horizon where everyone’s already made up their mind about him, with each new thing that happens either filtered out or reinforcing the negative opinion. He’s clearly been desperately searching for some way to turn the narrative around for months now, but each bumbling attempt has just seemed to make things worse.

    On these numbers, even a 2019-style poll failure wouldn’t save him: Labor would be taking office with 52% or 53% of the TPP and a modest but workable majority. Yes, things will probably tighten closer to polling day… But they might not. They might even get worse. While a rare event federally, it’s far from uncommon on a state level.

    Dutton, Frydenberg, and their backers would be thinking very hard about their next moves right now. Normally, this close to an election, you’d think both would be better off letting Scomo wear the loss and trying their luck in opposition – but if these numbers are at all accurate, it’s quite possible neither will actually be in parliament next term.

    Interesting times ahead.

  21. That’s a beautiful set of numbers…. While 2PP voting intention is the main game, full credit to Albo on the approval and PPM figures. If it was just a case of the ALP benefiting off the Coalition’s woes you wouldn’t expect those PPM trends so much.

    I have always thought Albo would probably be a good PM but wasn’t confident he had what it takes to get there. It’s not over till it’s over of course, but these results are just about as positive for the ALP and as disastrous for the LNP as anyone could realistically expect them to be at this point in the cycle.

  24. If this continues into March, I will be interested to see if there’s any federal drag on the SA results (no I’m not going to be moaning broken record and start begging for a state poll again… but if they did want to field one soon… I wouldn’t complain… OK, I’ll shut up now 😛 )

  30. Max:

    One of the few things Scomo still had working in his favour last year as his polling went went downhill was Albo’s mediocre approval ratings. Not anymore, it seems.

  31. @Nostra – I’ll be OK if Labor win by the same margin as Biden did.

    On Albo’s performance – It’s amazing what happens when a leader decides he’s going to try to expand their appeal to as many people as possible and picking your moments for a little bit of mongrel, as opposed to challenging Morrison to meet him in the parking lot every five minutes… as some here were wanting.

    @Asha – the other thing, outside of the Bushfire period, even when the Government was down, Morrison’s own standing was middling to good. Over the last 6-9 months, what’s clear to me, is Morrison and the Government are now clearly tied at the hip.

  35. Felix:

    can I propose same slightly sane and moderately credible speculation that he will quietly visit the governor general in the next few days to prevent a knife attack?

    Christ, I hope something like this happens!

  36. Re jt1983 at 10.09 pm

    How might there be a federal election before 21 May? Frydenberg is less likely to play Brutus because he will presume his seat is safer. Dutton could challenge any time in the week or so from 8 Feb. That is now obvious to all (he is the shadowy figure in the Rowe cartoon), including ProMo. His only sure means of stopping Dutton is to call an election next Sun for 13 March, with the SA election moved 3 weeks later (which would probably suit Marshall). Sounds crazy, but if he knows he will be dumped, he won’t wait. Bert’s speculation might not be so far off. Dutton will know that when Qld swings Labor, it swings big.

  37. “I reckon Morrison has lost the Tradies.”

    I thought that was an offense against life itself, illegal even, never to exist in the history of focus groups and 21st century politics!!! Quick, run around in a hi-viz suit and make the Daily Telegraph even dumber. That ALWAYS works and will work now, with no present-day interfering circumstances even slightly denting that proposition.
    Phew sorted that out! Smugs all around, time for drinks boys!

  38. No good telling us your mad theories Nostra, you need to convince those hundreds of thousands voters who have realised that Morrison is a fraud, just like the WA voters realised that Kirkup and the rest of the LP were frauds.

  39. Gee, you couldn’t hope for better numbers than these. Not just the 2PP, but the ALP PV and the party leaders ratings. When did the ALP last have a 41% PV in a federal poll? And Scomo has a netsat of -19! Even if Labor’s lead narrows substantially, it’s hard to see the LNP coming back to actually win from here. Scomo was quickly forgiven after his mistakes during the bushfire catastrophe, but the electorate surely by now knows what he really is. You wouldn’t think he’d be forgiven again. And we are less than 4 months from the likely election date.

  40. As gut wrenching as the 2019 result was, I always felt that it could likely turn out to be very similar to the 1993 result for Labor. With how things have unfolded and now with tonight’s Newspoll, 2022 is looking more like 1996

  41. I have an unofficial barometer of how the electorate at large are feeling about Labor. I check out the local people that are prepared to be photographed with the leader when he goes on a regional tour of the states. They’re not looking like your average Labor sympathisers roped in to make up the numbers this time around. They look like the true ‘Quiet Australians’ that normally would run a mile.

  44. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 10:27 pm
    Only 56:44!

    Are you channeling mundo, Rakali?
    ————
    Bloody hell! Do you actually read before you send your 1,000th message?

    I was being facetious about our inadequate and partial media.

  47. Seriously though, it should definitely be said that no matter what happens on election day, the 2PP is not going to look like that. Narrowing will happen between now and then.

    That’s certainly the most likely situation, yes. But it’s far from a guarantee. Just look at some of the state elections in recent years.

  48. Rakali @ #95 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 10:42 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 10:27 pm
    Only 56:44!

    Are you channeling mundo, Rakali?
    ————
    Bloody hell! Do you actually read before you send your 1,000th message?

    I was being facetious about our inadequate and partial media.

    Do you read!?! I had a winky face at the end of it! Like this: 😉 It means, I was joking!

    And I’ll comment if I want to, thanks for nothing.

  49. What’s also kind of interesting, not to put too much into those issues questions, but …
    Albo +18 on tacking climate
    Albo +1 on leading the nation out of COVID
    ScoMo +2 on creating jobs and the economy
    ScoMo +6 on dealing with China…

    Those numbers for Morrison, particularly those last three, as an incumbent LNP PM are appalling.

    So either, this really is just a very anti-Morrison and pro-Albo sample – or the bottom really is dropping out.

  50. BS Fairman, you didn’t mention Bermingham. Why was he, a finance Minister, commenting on foreign affairs issues today? I reckon he fancies himself.

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