Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more

“More” being the Liberals’ slow-motion Dobell preselection and declining prospects for a March federal election.

As the silly season reaches its apex, such news and relevant information as I have to offer:

• A poll by Utting Research on federal voting in Western Australia, published yesterday in The West Australian, is broadly in line with other polling from the state in crediting Labor with a lead of 55-45, a swing of 10.5% compared with the 2019 election. The primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 39%, Greens 7%, One Nation 3% and UAP 1%. The poll also has Scott Morrison at 28% approval and 46% disapproval (which is quite a bit worse than his 45% approval and 51% disapproval from the state in the last quarterly Newspoll) and Anthony Albanese at 21% and 44%, while Mark McGowan has 75% approval with no disapproval rating provided. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 650.

• US pollster Morning Consult’s monthly tracking polling for various international leaders’ personal ratings has Scott Morrison at 43% approval and 51% disapproval, respectively down three and up five on a month ago.

The Australian reports the dispute over the New South Wales Liberal Party’s highly incomplete federal preselection process rumbles on, with St Vincent’s Hospital cardiologist Michael Feneley winning the endorsement of John Howard in his bid for preselection in Dobell – putting him at odds with Scott Morrison, who favours Jemima Gleeson, who owns a chain of coffee shops and a preacher at the HopeUC Pentecostal church in Charmhaven.

David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports that “the Omicron wave has wiped out the idea of a snap election campaign as soon as next month”, hitherto rated “an outside chance for some Liberals who believed it was safer to go to an election in March than to wait until May”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,159 comments on “Utting Research WA poll, Morrison leadership ratings and more”

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  1. “We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come.”
    Lame, Set-up and despatched.

    I can’t wait for the next Leak tomorrow:
    “Hey Dutts, there’s a whole bunch of Asylum seekers wanting to work on their volley…”

  2. The Liberal Party are the best party to represent the Working Class, so says Lincoln Parker, candidate for pre-selection in Warringah!?! Just look at the guy:

    A bigger toff you couldn’t find if you tried. He actually had the gall to say this from his comfy redoubt on the Lower North Shore:

    Mr Parker appeared on Sky News last week and said Labor had “left the working class”, who he claimed were now served by the Liberal Party.

    “We are now representing the working class, average mum and dad, and all of the people that once thought that Labor represented them,” he said. “We need to be going out there as the Liberal Party and saying ‘look, we represent the working class’.”

    Not to mention the roll call of the elites wishing to take over from John Alexander in Bennelong:

    But there will be a multi-way preselection contest for the federal seat of Bennelong, where Liberal MP John Alexander is retiring. Party officials not authorised to speak publicly said Salesforce executive and former ministerial staffer Gisele Kapterian was the frontrunner against former councillor Craig Chung, McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy and Ryde councillor Trenton Brown.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/surprise-liberal-challenger-emerges-in-warringah-with-working-class-pitch-20220110-p59n5y.html

    Give. Me. A. Break!

    tl:dr Us toffs will represent you, the little people, and grateful you will be for it!

  3. Ven @ #50 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 8:14 am


    WB:  The Australian reports the dispute over the New South Wales Liberal Party’s highly incomplete federal preselection process rumbles on, with St Vincent’s Hospital cardiologist Michael Feneley winning the endorsement of John Howard in his bid for preselection in Dobell – putting him at odds with Scott Morrison, who favours Jemima Gleeson, who owns a chain of coffee shops and a preacher at the HopeUC Pentecostal church in Charmhaven.

    BB and others who are showing interesting in Coffee Shop owners and Pentacostal church preachers,

    The candidate preferred by Morrison is Coffee Shop owner and Pentacostal church preacher. Could it possible, just possible, those 2 things characteristics of the person attracted Morrison to prefer her and influence his decision to open up the economy irrespective of the characteristics of Omicron?

    Pentecostals own a LOT of coffee shops. They see it as an easy way to make $$ as the society runs on this legal drug.

  4. Could a cartoon be classed as harrassment and abuse?
    Must cartoons be based on facts?
    Must cartoons be funny, witty or even mordant?
    When do cartoons become propaganda rather than comment?
    How does the ‘leak’ cartoon above, rate against these questions?


  5. Greensborough Growlersays:

    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 7:20 am

    Sprocket,

    Morrison’s form pattern is to do nothing until he has to and then stuff it up.

    So, I’m now thinking he’ll hold off as long as possible.

    September 2022 House election with half Senate election in May is a real possibility now.

  6. Thank you BK ,what is it with this Johannes Leak and my state’s Premier? She went to UQ, ANU and London School of economics. Where did his dad send him to school- Institute Public Affairs?

  7. Prince planet @ #60 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 8:21 am

    Thank you BK ,what is it with this Johannes Leak and my state’s Premier? She went to UQ, ANU and London School of economics. Where did his dad send him to school- Institute Public Affairs?

    The John Singleton School of Aussie Bastardry.

    Or, in other words, he led a charmed life in my neck of the woods going surfing, living overseas for a while with his mother after she divorced his dad and being taken under the wing of the power elite after his dad died. A ‘glide path’ to success you could say.


  8. General practitioners are being booked out en masse amid a surge of coronavirus patients, severe staffing shortages and a lack of rapid antigen tests that would allow doctors to see more people. The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners’ Victorian chair, Anita Munoz, said she was increasingly worried there could be Victorians ill with coronavirus or other serious conditions who were “trying to go it alone at home” after being unable to book appointments.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gps-booked-out-as-patient-numbers-surge-and-staff-testing-shortages-hit-20220110-p59n16.html

    Remember Morrison said that People need to look after their own health. Listen to what he said in below speech

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7560021/pm-blasts-mask-mandates-but-warns-omicron-is-a-game-changer/


  9. Ven says:
    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 8:19 am

    September 2022 House election with half Senate election in May is a real possibility now.

    Been my bet for months.
    The counter argument, more time to replace Morrison.
    The bet, the Liberal party is now so incompetent they can’t replace a leader that is clearly taking them over a cliff.

  10. Trump did an end run around the Dems by picking up working class votes.
    In the case of the US the gambit worked, politically. Working class whites fear they have the most to lose when whites run out of the numbers some time this century.

  11. A perfect match between sitter and subject. What a pity we had to pay for it.

    Johannes Leak awarded $40,000 commission for Tony Abbott’s official portrait
    Tue 9 Feb 2021

  12. frednk @ #31 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 8:25 am


    Ven says:
    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 8:19 am

    September 2022 House election with half Senate election in May is a real possibility now.

    Been my bet for months.
    The counter argument, more time to replace Morrison.
    The bet, the Liberal party is now so incompetent they can’t replace a leader that is clearly taking them over a cliff.

    Remember the Morrison driving the Liberal Party bus off a cliff back in 2019?
    Pope, I think….
    Sent it around to all the tories in my family for a laugh.
    Geez, later of course I wished I hadn’t.

  13. I am enjoying the Morrison fexk up of Novaxgate.
    I am currently in line for a PCR covid19 drive-thru test. I have been here since 7am.It opens at 8 am. It is 7.59am an 18 cars ahead of me!

    We are moving!

  14. Daughters are trying their luck this morning going to local vax hub to get 3rd shot as walk in.

    They are currently booked for 23rd jan. As they have to interact with public, would like to get it asap

  15. Dr Henry Madison @RageSheen

    Numerous things to be taken from this data.

    1) World Wars 1 and 2 are in this data.
    2) See 1).
    3) Pandemics are far more lethal than wars.
    4) Governments spent 100-120% of GDP to fight WW1 and WW2.
    5) Government spent about 35% of GDP to fight this pandemic.

    This is UK data, Australia will follow this trend

  16. Has Bushfire Bill seen this from Anna Davidson OzSAGE @PMGPSC

    For those who work in hospitals and have not spoken out yet, let me remind you that adverse events (you know, sub optimal care leading to death etc), that are actually a result of systems failures, are inevitably slated back to an individual level of responsibility.

  17. AND I am in my PJs and dressing gown. I didn’t take time to change so I could get early in line.

    Modbury, Adelaide, SA. A Private PAthology covid19 drive thru testing station.

  18. Vic,

    My wife and I received our booster shot at the Heidelberg Repat on Sunday. Walk ups. 15 mins in queue, 15 mins to be vaccinated, 15 minutes post injection wait.

    My MIL rang the Chemist at Diamond Village yesterday morning just before 9am an was Vaccinated at 11:45 for her booster shot.

  19. Cat

    I have never seen detailed figures on how many local jobs there were going to actually be in Adelaide from the French subs. But this story from back in September 21 highlights the damage done by AUKUS with no succession plan defined.
    https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/aussie-manufacturers-dudded-by-australias-submarine-flip-flop

    And this story highlights some of the firms that could expand assuming most of the subs (except reactors) were built here.
    https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/aukmin-interesting-more-details-on-subs-in-18-months

    By cancelling Naval and AUKUS starting after an 18 month stall, the Morrison government probably deferred $2-3 billion in spending.

    Have a good day all.

  20. Socrates @ #78 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 8:40 am

    Cat

    I have never seen detailed figures on how many local jobs there were going to actually be in Adelaide from the French subs. But this story from back in September 21 highlights the damage done by AUKUS with no succession plan defined.
    https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/aussie-manufacturers-dudded-by-australias-submarine-flip-flop

    By cancelling Naval and AUKUS starting after an 18 month stall, the Morrison government probably deferred $2-3 billion in spending.

    And the Morrison government want to run on what a great economy they have overseen? 😆

  21. mundo
    The situation now is not even close to 2019.

    2019 the Liberals just won, find one example where they have stood still or gone forward from there.
    Every Morrison stunt to try and regain ground has turned to shit.

    Khaki election – Billion spent- turned to shit -Chinese voters alienated .
    Tampa moment – No way it can be recovered – Serb voters alienated .
    Royal commission against Albo as they did for Shorten – too late.
    Ex Girl fiend claiming rape, valid or not – Nope. – This time it’s a line up of Liberals.
    Greens gas guzzler Convoy- No-whatever the planned stunt- who cares.
    Morrison failure after Morrison fail – Yes.

    One counter point, just one.

    As for Albo. A blank canvas, pretty much as Morrison was.

  22. Boerwar

    Working class whites fear they have the most to lose when whites run out of the numbers some time this century.

    They have also been ‘screwed over’ by the Democrats . First big time by Clinton with NAFTA. It was originally a Repug project to smash a couple of the only still powerful unions like the autoworkers’. Bubba Clinton bought home the bacon. There were vast numbers of blue collar workers who were ‘scrap heaped’ . Who went from a good well paid job with retirement benefits to ‘shelf stacker at Walmart’ , if they could find a job. Whole towns/cities forked as they were one industry towns. Then Obama and the GFC. As an article said at the time, in a choice between Wall St. and Main St. he chose Wall St. A lot of people lost their retirement $s . There would be a very large pools of resentment and the Repugs would have been drawing from it.
    Personally I think the making things all about race is convenient for the ‘Plutocrats’ who run the place. It is such a wonderful distraction . Set two groups who are both being fucked over by the plutocrats in conflict with each other. It keeps them from noticing who is actually the root cause of much of both their problems.

  23. frednk @ #65 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 8:25 am


    Ven says:
    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 8:19 am

    September 2022 House election with half Senate election in May is a real possibility now.

    Been my bet for months.
    The counter argument, more time to replace Morrison.
    The bet, the Liberal party is now so incompetent they can’t replace a leader that is clearly taking them over a cliff.

    If they did do that it would spell out in neon lights:

    DESPERADOES

  24. Just did my RAT. Finally.

    Negative! 🙂

    So, all I have is a summer cold. Like the nurse said was extremely likely and that we shouldn’t forget that they are still around.

  25. Does anyone know the reasons given for cancellation of those other tennis players visas? You would think the same may be applied to Djokovic unless they had made false statements. Unlike them, he won’t just comply. If it’s based on threats to the community, this opens up a whole can of worms.

  26. Puffytmd at 8:39 am

    AND I am in my PJs and dressing gown. I didn’t take time to change so I could get early in line.

    Completing the ensemble with fluffy slippers I hope 🙂


  27. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 8:53 am

    frednk,
    You left out:
    * broke the arm of a taxi driver. Nope.

    Wasn’t that Mark Latham?


  28. mundosays:

    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 7:50 am

    Palaszczuk has degrees in Arts and Laws from the University of Queensland, a Masters of Arts from the London School of Economics and a Graduate Diploma of Legal Practice from Australian National University.
    So Leak’s point is well made.
    Jeez the blokes a dick.

    I don’t know that Ana P is so well educated.

  29. @AaronKinKin1
    ·
    21m
    I think after General Frewen’s performance running logistics for the vaccine strollout, he should go back to commanding billions of dollars worth of useless tanks..

  30. Victoria @ #43 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 5:11 am

    A Twitter comment. Could you imagine Alex Hawke doing this?

    ——–
    Djokovic doesn’t want to get vaccinated & his views on vaccines are well known. He’s now saying it’s a medical exemption.

    After spreading antivax misinfo, contracting Covid & seen maskless amongst children.

    Minister has the right to cancel a visa on the grounds of character.

    Yes, but those grounds existed before he was issued a Visa and before he got on a plane.

    For me to do so now would just further highlight the Government’s incompetence in the matter.

  31. frednk @ #90 Tuesday, January 11th, 2022 – 8:57 am


    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 8:53 am

    frednk,
    You left out:
    * broke the arm of a taxi driver. Nope.

    Wasn’t that Mark Latham?

    Yep. The Coalition built a whole election campaign around his ‘unsuitability’ for high office off the back of that incident. And ‘The Handshake’ with Howard.


  32. Socratessays:

    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 7:52 am

    Assuming Morrison does delay to May, the news cycle will not get any easier.

    Other put off events like the trial of Brittany Higgins’ alleged rapist will return. Parliament will sit, with a host of questions to answer, from visas and bizarre tank purchases to our debt tsunami and risks for interest rates.

    On the $3.5 billion tank purchase, it makes no sense to me. It contradicts the build and buy local policy, our current tanks are not obsolete (many of the same model are still in the US Army) and with the withdrawal from Afghanistan where is the need? Indeed, with our defense policy shifting to a stronger navy and long range deterrence, why would we be planning to fight a land war anywhere?

    Maybe the Tanks are “Hovercrafts” so that we can use them on seas. 🙂

  33. SMH is farting on about “being greatist victory of them all”.

    Well no, it’s no over till the fat lady sings…

    When do we expect the minster to make a decision?..

    https://www.news.com.au/sport/tennis/disturbing-question-shuts-down-novak-djokovic-press-conference/news-story/24f12c78f6f5c7b31cd9d0fc50184f11

    Novak Djokovic’s family abruptly ended a press conference when asked whether the tennis star knowingly mingled with children without a mask at an event the day after he tested positive for Covid-19.

    I want this sucker deported.


  34.  Taylormadesays:

    Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 8:08 am

    3AW 10/01
    Gerard Healy has voiced his frustration over the ongoing Novak Djokovic saga after he won his court case in the federal court.

    “The damage has been done, unfortunately, and it was all so bloody unnecessary,” the Sportsday host said on Monday.

    Gerard said it all began with Tennis Australia’s “blind obsession” of having Djokovic play in the tournament.

    “By orchestrating rule exemptions and obsessing over his arrival, you are seen to ignore the very real pain endured for two years in the Australian Open’s own home address,” he said.

    “A savage insult wasn’t intended, but it was always going to be interpreted as such”
    _____________________
    Tennis Australia’s reputation is in tatters.

    Taylor
    Do you think we will lose the right to host the a Grand Slam event soon because “Tennis Australia’s reputation is in tatters.”

  35. Q: SA Incidentally the cancellation of elective surgery is serious too…..

    And not just for patients. I, like tens of thousands of people cross the country, lose our work when elective surgery shuts down.

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