A woman’s place

More on Pearce preselection prospects, another parliamentary retirement announcement, and a poll suggesting WA voters favour Tanya Plibersek over Anthony Albanese.

After an eventful conclusion to the year’s parliamentary sittings, more retirement announcements and preselection news, plus an opinion poll of sorts.

• The Financial Review reports there are two leading candidates to replace Christian Porter as the Liberal candidate in Pearce: Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (and granddaughter of Joseph and Enid Lyons), and Nicole Robbins, a Melville councillor and high school teacher. No mention is made of Miquela Riley and Alyssa Hayden, who featured in a report in The West Australian on Thursday. Michael Read of the Financial Review reports former state Hillarys MP Peter Katsambanis has indicated he would have been a contender had not the state government’s “heavy-handed” border restrictions left him stranded in Melbourne, but he would have had to contend with the party leadership’s clear preference that a woman be selected to succeed Porter.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Christian Porter’s decision to jump ship was influenced by internal polling for his seat that was, according to a source familiar with the matter, “not good”. However, the remainder of the report emphasises Labor’s hard path to a majority: the Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. Elsewhere in the Financial Review, Michael Read of the Financial Review reports both parties expect Labor to win the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Gladys Liu.

• Damian Drum, who has held the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls (known before 2019 as Murray) for the Nationals since 2016, has announced he will not contest the election. Rob Harris of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals now hope to recover the seat, which Drum won upon the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. Anticipated Nationals preselection candidates are Sam Birrell, former chief executive of the Committee for Shepparton; Michael Dobbie, former paralympian and staffer to Liberal MP Jane Prentice and Nationals MP Darren Chester; and Amanda McClaren, former Strathbogie Shire mayor. The only Liberal mentioned is Stephen Brooks, a “Cobram school teacher, irrigator and former international commodities trader”. Rob Priestly, Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and co-owner of an industrial laundry firm in Shepparton, recently announced he would run as an independent.

• The Katina Curtis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run, and also in Parramatta, where the Liberals are hoping the retirement of sitting member Julie Owens will help them knock over the 3.5% Labor margin. State Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has thus far resisted entreaties to run, which have displeased Dominic Perrottet, who would sooner avoid further by-elections.

• The West Australian has a poll by Painted Dog Research in which 801 Western Australian respondents were presented with a four-way preferred prime minister question, putting Scott Morrison at 41%, Tanya Plibersek at 32%, Anthony Albanese at 22% and Peter Dutton at 4%. Plibersek led Morrison by 41% to 36% among women, while Morrison led 47% to 25% among men. When asked who they trusted more out of the Premier and the Prime Minister, Mark McGowan scored 78% and Morrison 22%. Here too there was a significant gender gap, with McGowan’s lead of 71-29 among men comparing with 86-14 among women.

Affairs of state:

• Antony Green notes on Twitter that South Australia’s parliament has adjourned ahead of the election without having corrected the legislative anomaly that means pre-poll votes are not counted on election night, which is now unique to the state. As a result, the election night count will be “quick, over early, but will be very incomplete with no guarantee we will know the outcome until the declaration votes start being counted on the Monday after the election”.

• Yoni Bashan of The Australian reports Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate since her daughter and three of her cousins were killed after in February last year after a ute mounted the kerb, is considering an approach from the New South Wales Liberals to run in the looming Strathfield by-election. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of ousted Labor leader Jodi McKay, who held the seat by 5.0% in 2019.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “A woman’s place”

Comments Page 14 of 19
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  1. Asha says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 9:56 am

    Hold up, did Scomo seriously just get caught in another totally avoidable lie!?
    ______________
    You have to ask yourself, what’s more likely? That some Labor stooges stumbled over the photo lie of the century, or is it just an old photo and an old facebook post from years ago? I ask you.

  3. “ Abduls reviewing cutlery requirements in advance of Catmomma and Earlwood’s joint dining.
    I haz claws. ”

    I’ll bring some long spoons.

  4. Nath:

    I could have sworn I saw today’s date on the original post, but you may well be right.

    EDIT: Wait, no, that timestamp was for the Poll Bludger post.

    Hmm, I can’t seem to find the pic at all after a quick scroll through Scomo’s official Facebook page. Perhaps someone was caught out by the whole “Memories” thing Facebook does?

  5. On established record, what’s more likely with anything Morrison is that he’s lying. That is to say, he lies more than he doesn’t lie. By commission and omission and misrepresentation and and and and and….

    I don’t think. I know.

    (spelling edit)

  6. There are typically some negative ones but these are a few of the most respected.

    Anyone who had the role of leading during a pandemic is damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. I’m proud to be Victorian.
    Andrews best comment this year;
    ” it wasn’t the premiers who forgot to order vaccines”
    @Island in d sun
    1 hour ago
    Leader Dan Andrews was holding the hose this whole time but did anyone see The PM for NSW Scott Morrison doing the same for Victorians? Instead all the opposition did was hinder and criticise.
    Marg
    1 hour ago
    Once again Andrews is spot on. What other state or nation has been able to suppress a growing Covid wave back to zero, on more than one occasion, due only to the strong leadership and inspiration of the premier. The Victorian people appreciated that he was following the health advice and were motivated to follow the rules, urging the government to ‘stay the course’ until the job was done properly.
    Tim Allardyce
    1 hour ago
    He’s spot on, if a little cocky, but with the current opposition, can you really blame him?
    Many liberal politicians DO want political violence. They want the state to fail. They have not done one single thing to support the people of this state. Not once have they ever thought about our welfare. It’s only been about political point scoring & supporting their mates in business big & small.
    DP
    1 hour ago
    Agree. Most state oppositions have worked with their govts to do what was best to keep people safe. But not in Victoria, where the opposition backed up by Morrison and the Feds, played politics and have continuously undermined the premier and the health response, which I believe has encouraged division and given oxygen to these appalling, often violent protests. Disgraceful.
    DP
    1 hour ago
    Dan has done an amazing job, showing leadership and working tirelessly to keep Victorians safe, while the state opposition played politics and dog whistled to violent anti lockdown and anti vaxxer protesters. Then we had Morrison and Frydenberg doing the same, trying to get political mileage by undermining the premier and the Victorian health response. We won’t forget.

  7. A good policy as long as it’s not a recruitment drive for the AWU and CFMEU.

    Labor says providing free Tafe places in targeted areas will help rebuild the industries hit hardest by the pandemic, like hospitality and tourism, as well as meeting current and future needs in the care economy, including jobs in child care, aged care, disability care, nursing and community services.

    The funding will provide more than 465,000 free Tafe places, including 45,000 new places. The package also includes a $50m technology fund to improve IT facilities, workshops, laboratories and telehealth simulators.

    Labor will aim to prioritise the new funding for universities which are able to offer additional courses in national priority areas, such as clean energy, advanced manufacturing, health and education, or where there are skills shortages.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/05/labor-pledges-extra-university-and-tafe-places-to-help-rebuild-industries-hit-by-pandemic

  8. Changing technology has not caught up with politicians and the leftover tree media.
    Christmas starts on December 5 and comes back Jan 30 perhaps.
    Hopefully the bushfires, floods, Covid varieties, refugees, jobless, and the poor have been informed that they are on holidays.
    Morrison in Bathurst for the petrol sniffing, seems somewhat at odds with the car manufacturing companies intentions to produce mainly electric cars by 2030.
    At least the producer of Fat Pizza gets it even if the Bogan PM doesn’t!

  11. Nath
    “You have to ask yourself, what’s more likely? That some Labor stooges stumbled over the photo lie of the century, or is it just an old photo and an old facebook post from years ago? I ask you.”

    The chip and his shoulder doing a cameo!

  13. Pre print and not peer reviewed –

    “Prior COVID infection doesn’t appear to protect very well against Omicron. Whether or not Omicron can also evade vaccine derived immunity, has important implications for public health globally. Quantifying the extent of Omicron’s immune escape for both natural and vaccine derived immunity, as well as its transmissibility relative to other variants and impact on disease severity are urgent priorities to inform facility readiness planning and other public health operations.”

    We find evidence of a substantial and ongoing increase in the risk of reinfection that is temporally consistent with the timing of the emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa, suggesting that its selection advantage is at least partially driven by an increased ability to infect previously infected individuals.

    In contrast, we find no evidence that reinfection risk increased as a result of the emergence of Beta or Delta variants, suggesting that the selective advantage that allowed these variants to spread derived primarily from increased transmissibility, rather than immune escape.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

    (via axios)

  14. If Jones were to stand, he’d want to get more votes than the viewers he had on Sky before being dumped – highs of 60,000, lows of 30,000.

    _____________________________________________

    So Berejiklian’s seen as a rockstar by some. Let’s see how much gloss she’s left with when the ICAC hands down its report.

    _____________________________________________

    In the pic of Morrison standing on a ladder, his knees are very red, suggestive of psoriasis.

    _____________________________________________

    As for Ashely & Martin, they can’t work miracles, even with Morrison’s connections.

    _____________________________________________

    Bunnings doth beckon – brunfelsia pauciflora, feeding my new found hobby of gardening.

  17. Ah yes, Mr Ruddock, the devout Catholic, and amnesty international badge wearer, well remembered for calling the refugee boy in detention an “it”.

    Ruddock claimed Shayan’s illness had nothing to do with his experiences in the detention centres. If the child was ill, Ruddock claimed in an interview with Kerry O’Brien on ABC TV’s 7.30 Report, it was because “it was not a natural child of the mother, it’s a stepchild.

    https://theaimn.com/ruddock-man-called-refugee-child/

    Depersonalise to demonise. Somehow “the its threw their little its overboard” doesn’t fall off the tongue so easily. But that’s what they meant.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:19 am

    A good policy as long as it’s not a recruitment drive for the AWU and CFMEU.

    Characteristic absurdity from the editors of Rexology.

  20. I have two theories about Antic and his quarantine shenanigans. Strangely, both have Morrison telling the truth and, not strangely, both involve the media doing the bidding of a politician.
    1. Antic tipped the media off to his arrival and that he would create a news story for his political gain by being escorted to quarantine (even tho he is vaccinated).
    2. Someone who doesnt like Antic tipped the media off that he was arriving and when he saw the media he realised he couldnt secretly show is vaccination certificate to avoid hotel quarantine – as it would how him up for the hypocrite he is.

  22. Looks like the Shire Liar has removed Facebook photo of no existent 20 lap swim at the empty & demolished North Sydney pool … Bullshit PR as usual.

  23. BB
    “Re. North Sydney pool… it’s been closed, and therefore drained of all water, since February 2021…”

    The pool is still empty. And as ScoMo himself has told us, he doesn’t hold a hose.

  27. Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:43 am

    If Members and Senators are not vaccinated they shouldn’t be allowed into the Parliament. Nor should they be paired. The legislature is a workplace like any other, all told, and workers should be protected as far as possible from exposure to infection. The unvaccinated should not be allowed in the building. They should not be allowed into any Commonwealth building. They should be required to isolate until they have been vaccinated.

  28. Mavis,
    Those knees do look red. I don’t think even Morrison’s pet spaniel Nath would deny that he is in bad shape. Borderline obese, sweaty, often breathless, not as red-faced as Barnaby but certainly a tinge of grog flush. I’d say forgetful but someone who lies has often as he does needs a fabulous memory and he simply doesn’t have the mental hardware for that. By the way, who stands on a ladder balancing backwards, legs crossed, on one heel? Someone who doesn’t spend much time on a ladder. That’s who.

  29. ItzaDream @ #663 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:29 am

    Pre print and not peer reviewed –

    “Prior COVID infection doesn’t appear to protect very well against Omicron. Whether or not Omicron can also evade vaccine derived immunity, has important implications for public health globally. Quantifying the extent of Omicron’s immune escape for both natural and vaccine derived immunity, as well as its transmissibility relative to other variants and impact on disease severity are urgent priorities to inform facility readiness planning and other public health operations.”

    We find evidence of a substantial and ongoing increase in the risk of reinfection that is temporally consistent with the timing of the emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa, suggesting that its selection advantage is at least partially driven by an increased ability to infect previously infected individuals.

    In contrast, we find no evidence that reinfection risk increased as a result of the emergence of Beta or Delta variants, suggesting that the selective advantage that allowed these variants to spread derived primarily from increased transmissibility, rather than immune escape.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

    (via axios)

    Thank Itsa. That is a very significant signal in a methodologically strong paper from some who are probably the only people who could assemble it in this time scale.

  31. Bludging Bloos @ #677 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:24 am

    Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:43 am

    If Members and Senators are not vaccinated they shouldn’t be allowed into the Parliament. Nor should they be paired. The legislature is a workplace like any other, all told, and workers should be protected as far as possible from exposure to infection. The unvaccinated should not be allowed in the building. They should not be allowed into any Commonwealth building. They should be required to isolate until they have been vaccinated.

    Is this a good time for my hobby horse to ride in? MPs to attend parliament via zoom from their local library. Not just during a pandemic. But always (except special occasions – coupla times a year).

    There are SO many unexpected benefits to this. The negatives can be worked out.

  35. Greensborough Growler @ #675 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:51 am

    Another Teal Independent to run against Jason Falinski in McKeller.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-voted-with-barnaby-joyce-every-time-why-gp-decided-to-run-in-blue-ribbon-seat-20211202-p59ecu.html

    Quite a CV:

    Dr Scamps studied at Sydney and Oxford Universities, qualified for the 1992 Olympics as a middle-distance runner, and worked as an Emergency doctor at Mona Vale hospital before becoming a local GP.

    She is also the founder of Our Blue Dot, a community-led NGO to help people reduce their impact on the environment.

    Her husband is a former Wallaby and she has three children. The family lives in Avalon.

    Olympians are in a group of their own. Perseverance for one thing.

  36. Simon Katich @ #680 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:59 am

    Bludging Bloos @ #677 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:24 am

    Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:43 am

    If Members and Senators are not vaccinated they shouldn’t be allowed into the Parliament. Nor should they be paired. The legislature is a workplace like any other, all told, and workers should be protected as far as possible from exposure to infection. The unvaccinated should not be allowed in the building. They should not be allowed into any Commonwealth building. They should be required to isolate until they have been vaccinated.

    Is this a good time for my hobby horse to ride in? MPs to attend parliament via zoom from their local library. Not just during a pandemic. But always (except special occasions – coupla times a year).

    There are SO many unexpected benefits to this. The negatives can be worked out.

    There is absolutely no reason why members can’t work from their electorate offices.

  37. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:53 am
    Greensborough Growler @ #674 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:51 am

    Another Teal Independent to run against Jason Falinski in McKeller.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-voted-with-barnaby-joyce-every-time-why-gp-decided-to-run-in-blue-ribbon-seat-20211202-p59ecu.html

    15% too big a margin unfortunately you’d think, but you never know …

    The Lib-Lite needs to split the Heavy vote and attract prefs from Labor and the Greens. The 2PP vote last time was approximately 63/37, so the Lite will need a net 13/63 to eke out a win. 1/5 Heavy votes will have to shift. That’s possible, though they have very little time.

    The Lib PV was 53%, so the Lite will have to attract around 1/4 formerly Heavy primary votes. Maybe. Mobilisation within the reactionary plurality is underway. Presumably the Lite know their own precincts and think they have a chance.

  38. Correct. The ladder is in the wrong place and facing the wrong way. As regards staging, what isn’t staged with this clown? It’s like every action of every day is a photo opportunity. Cooking on unlit barbeques, swimming in empty pools, hammering non existent nails into a prebuilt chook pen, pretending to work with blank bits of paper, posing on the phone with Joe Biden. And who can forget the legendary photoshopped joggers with two left feet? The bullshit just never ends with him.

  39. There is absolutely no reason why members can’t work from their electorate offices.

    If they’re not vaccinated they should not be able to attend their office. They should not be among staff and members of the public. Electoral work is not otherwise-protected legislative work. It should not be exempt from the vaccination rules that apply to the workforce in general.

    I think a hard line on vaccination is entirely rational. MPs should be setting a very clear example. They are from the public and are not above the rest.

  40. Every Teal candidate in a safe Liberal seat is more resources and money the Liberals have to expend in place where they would normally not have to spend as much. Not sure how the fundraising has been going but volunteers are often less enthusiastic if their side is losing.

  43. B.S. Fairman @ #689 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    Every Teal candidate in a safe Liberal seat is more resources and money the Liberals have to expend in place where they would normally not have to spend as much. Not sure how the fundraising has been going but volunteers are often less enthusiastic if their side is losing.

    Labors HTV’s in these Lib held seats with Enviro Indys are going to be an interesting study.

  45. B.S. Fairman @ #597 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    Every Teal candidate in a safe Liberal seat is more resources and money the Liberals have to expend in place where they would normally not have to spend as much. Not sure how the fundraising has been going but volunteers are often less enthusiastic if their side is losing.

    Not to mention those same volunteers have to stay in their own electorate and fight a rearguard action against the Teal. Whereas, what the Liberals normally do is send those volunteers to marginal electorates, like my own Robertson, across from the Northern Beaches, to bolster their campaigns to hold onto the seat. Tony Abbott and Bronwyn Bishop used to do it all the time.

  47. Briefly,

    TBH the Teal Independents just need to finish first or second at the last elimination of candidates. I reckon they could win with roughly 20% of the Primary and sail home on preferences.

    All the candidates are photogenic, talking sense and clearly enunciating their reasons for opposing the incumbent and all have credible back stories. The consistent cry that the existing Member talks as a good fight and then votes for what Barnaby Joyce decides is going to resonate strongly imho.

    If they generate some momentum, there will be a real contest in all these Blue Ribbon Seats.

  48. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 11:19 am
    B.S. Fairman @ #689 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    Every Teal candidate in a safe Liberal seat is more resources and money the Liberals have to expend in place where they would normally not have to spend as much. Not sure how the fundraising has been going but volunteers are often less enthusiastic if their side is losing.

    Labors HTV’s in these Lib held seats with Enviro Indys are going to be an interesting study.

    You think? Labor will put the Lite ahead of the Heavy. The only interesting question is where Labor put the Greens. Realistically, nothing will change in this respect and Labor will preference the Greens, self-defeating though this might be. Will the Greens put the Lite ahead of Labor? Would the Greens rather see an expanded x-bench (this will reduce their own relative importance), or would they preference Labor? Will the Greens campaign against the Lite? Will they favour them?

  49. Epitomises the depths the CPG & Insiders has sunk to.

    Peter Campbell
    @peterc_150
    ·
    1h
    James Campbell: “the most credible policy on climate change is the one that wins the election.” So never mind the climate crisis! #insiders

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