After an eventful conclusion to the year’s parliamentary sittings, more retirement announcements and preselection news, plus an opinion poll of sorts.
• The Financial Review reports there are two leading candidates to replace Christian Porter as the Liberal candidate in Pearce: Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (and granddaughter of Joseph and Enid Lyons), and Nicole Robbins, a Melville councillor and high school teacher. No mention is made of Miquela Riley and Alyssa Hayden, who featured in a report in The West Australian on Thursday. Michael Read of the Financial Review reports former state Hillarys MP Peter Katsambanis has indicated he would have been a contender had not the state government’s “heavy-handed” border restrictions left him stranded in Melbourne, but he would have had to contend with the party leadership’s clear preference that a woman be selected to succeed Porter.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Christian Porter’s decision to jump ship was influenced by internal polling for his seat that was, according to a source familiar with the matter, “not good”. However, the remainder of the report emphasises Labor’s hard path to a majority: the Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. Elsewhere in the Financial Review, Michael Read of the Financial Review reports both parties expect Labor to win the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Gladys Liu.
• Damian Drum, who has held the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls (known before 2019 as Murray) for the Nationals since 2016, has announced he will not contest the election. Rob Harris of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals now hope to recover the seat, which Drum won upon the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. Anticipated Nationals preselection candidates are Sam Birrell, former chief executive of the Committee for Shepparton; Michael Dobbie, former paralympian and staffer to Liberal MP Jane Prentice and Nationals MP Darren Chester; and Amanda McClaren, former Strathbogie Shire mayor. The only Liberal mentioned is Stephen Brooks, a “Cobram school teacher, irrigator and former international commodities trader”. Rob Priestly, Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and co-owner of an industrial laundry firm in Shepparton, recently announced he would run as an independent.
• The Katina Curtis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run, and also in Parramatta, where the Liberals are hoping the retirement of sitting member Julie Owens will help them knock over the 3.5% Labor margin. State Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has thus far resisted entreaties to run, which have displeased Dominic Perrottet, who would sooner avoid further by-elections.
• The West Australian has a poll by Painted Dog Research in which 801 Western Australian respondents were presented with a four-way preferred prime minister question, putting Scott Morrison at 41%, Tanya Plibersek at 32%, Anthony Albanese at 22% and Peter Dutton at 4%. Plibersek led Morrison by 41% to 36% among women, while Morrison led 47% to 25% among men. When asked who they trusted more out of the Premier and the Prime Minister, Mark McGowan scored 78% and Morrison 22%. Here too there was a significant gender gap, with McGowan’s lead of 71-29 among men comparing with 86-14 among women.
Affairs of state:
• Antony Green notes on Twitter that South Australia’s parliament has adjourned ahead of the election without having corrected the legislative anomaly that means pre-poll votes are not counted on election night, which is now unique to the state. As a result, the election night count will be “quick, over early, but will be very incomplete with no guarantee we will know the outcome until the declaration votes start being counted on the Monday after the election”.
• Yoni Bashan of The Australian reports Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate since her daughter and three of her cousins were killed after in February last year after a ute mounted the kerb, is considering an approach from the New South Wales Liberals to run in the looming Strathfield by-election. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of ousted Labor leader Jodi McKay, who held the seat by 5.0% in 2019.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 11:25 am
Briefly,
TBH the Teal Independents just need to finish first or second at the last elimination of candidates. I reckon they could win with roughly 20% of the Primary and sail home on preferences.
All the candidates are photogenic, talking sense and clearly enunciating their reasons for opposing the incumbent and all have credible back stories. The consistent cry that the existing Member talks as a good fight and then votes for what Barnaby Joyce decides is going to resonate strongly imho.
If they generate some momentum, there will be a real contest in all these Blue Ribbon Seats.
I agree. I think they’re all in with a chance, depending on the source of their PV. To win, they must split the Heavy vote. If all they are able to do is re-arrange the past Labor and Green vote, then they will fall short. So they have to campaign against the Heavy in the precincts where the Heavy do best, knowing that Labor and Green prefs will mostly fall their way. They are running on 3 themes – climate change, female representation and the culture of sexism/misogyny in the Liberal Party, and corruption/integrity. These themes will shift votes in the Lib heartlands. The question is whether they will shift enough to topple the Heavy. I certainly hope so.
Will the Greens run for or against the Lite? Who cares anyway?
GG
the indies in Indi get around 30% and wouldn’t get in with less.
Rex Douglas @ #661 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 8:29 am
That would only be true if the election was a referendum solely about the respective climate change policies.
We know from previous elections that voters discount their views in this area and primarily allocate their votes for other reasons.
Barney,
I’m pretty sure the Kirribilli pool doesn’t have the gates of Luna Park included.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 11:29 am
Epitomises the depths the CPG & Insiders has sunk to.
Peter Campbell
@peterc_150
·
1h
James Campbell: “the most credible policy on climate change is the one that wins the election.” So never mind the climate crisis! #insiders
In a democracy, this is a valid point of view. Nothing can be done without the consent of the governed. Iron Rule. Voters decide these things.
Morrison at Mt Panorama today, shades of Trump courting the NASCAR vote in 2016 and 2020
Greensborough Growler @ #678 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 9:58 am
Australia: We have no Bill of Rights.
Also Australia (?): Not wearing a mask is a human right!
Roy Orbison @ #666 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 8:36 am
I thought it had been established that the photo didn’t match the message.
I was just proposing a more plausible scenario as to the venue for this marathon swim.
First Mao and now Morrison.
Bloos at 11.38
Winning an election on a particular climate policy does not make it credible, just politically desirable.
The most credible climate policy is the one where the party or person who proposes it has the greatest likelihood of delivering it if in power.
On that basis, Labor has the most credible climate policy.
Itzadream and rhwhombat,
Thanks for the preprint. The degree of immune escape is impressive. No doubt this is a large contributing factor to the high Reff. Hard to say whether the Ro is worse than Delta as a result. So much unknown.
Importantly for Australia, is immune escape decreased or enhanced by vaccination as opposed to prior infection? Good people working hard on this and hopefully we know soon.
In the meantime, I am a strong advocate for decreased mobility.
Oh and one more thing on omicron, I am still slightly irritated with this concept of the symptoms being “mild”. Both transmissibility and virulence are important, but I am more concerned with transmissibility than virulence. Because maths. Exponential function versus a proportion.
Speers to Josh on climate policy this morning. “So, Labor, the States, Business Groups, Science and the international community are wrong and Barnaby is right?”
This is the credibility problem the Government faces in this Election.
Some sort of religious weirdo opened Bathurst. Somebody else massacred the anthem.
So some of my ‘final observations’ on Insiders.
1. Josh having spent too much time with his boss gets caught claiming ALP female representative quota success for the whole parliament as a Liberal party success. Unfortunately for Josh he isn’t his boss so he flounders when he hears himself talking crap.
2. Watching James Campbell nearly falling off the edge of his seat by the end of the show was hilarious. The man is stressed out. His usual lounging back in the chair smoking a cigar schtick has long gone
3. What Philip Coorey adds to a conversation is negligible. Bloke at the pub in town that sits by himself that you come to realise why after your second visit. You go to a pub for some enjoyment not to be bored into an early death. Time went very slowly when he was talking this
morning.
4. The show missed Kathryn Murphy this morning. Would have loved her to be a 4th journo on to call out the BS from Campbell, Coorey and Frydenburg in her very clear way.
The Bathurst Morrison publicity vision they did not show!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1467296962705723397
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1240628.shtml
Xi’s dictatorship is busy selling something called ‘whole process democracy’.
Re: Morrison and that photo op of him at North Sydney Pool. THAT was taken in early 2019. Along with ScoMo talking about those 20 laps. I distinctly remember it. So either someone has recycled it on his Facebook Feed, or Facebook has done that randomly all by itself (which happens from time to time with my own feed).
Laughtong
Thanks for posting the comments on the Age article
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/44456#more-44456
This is Part 2 of Ben Raue’s Call of the Board from yesterday’s Council Elections in NSW. I can’t seem to find Part 1???
Wait! Griff was wrong about the swim photo! Unbelievable. What about the ladder being upside down? Oh, hang on, different staged photo.
Labor rules out a coalition with the Greens…
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7538178/labor-rules-out-coalition-with-the-greens/?cs=14329
zoomster says:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 12:29 pm
Labor rules out a coalition with the Greens…
_______________
They won’t need The Greens anyway, and if they do, they’ll do an agreement instead of a coalition. That agreement may involve shit that might look like a coalition.
Richard Marles laying down the Labor Policy and intentions.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7538178/labor-rules-out-coalition-with-the-greens/?cs=14329
nath @ Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 12:24 pm
Que?
zoomstersays:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 12:29 pm
Labor rules out a coalition with the Greens…
_____________________
All just words. No one will believe it until the opportunity presents itself and they knock it back.
Taylormade
It won’t be necessary, regardless. There’ll be a slew of indies to negotiate with in the event of a hung Parliament.
z,
Bandt is unlikely to be in Parliament if he and and the Greens maintain their anti-Labor rhetoric.
Do you think there will be a Newspoll tonight?
FYI
Taylormade says:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 12:40 pm
___________________________
Taylormade thinks everyone has the same debauched morality that he and the Liberal Party have.
The Teals are about to give them a big shock. Liberals in the wealthiest areas of Australia are sick of climate policies that are not only terrible environmental policies but even terrible economic and business policies. The first is acceptable if it keeps Labor out; the second is unacceptable as they see business opportunities stymied time and again.
Richard Denniss
@RDNS_TAI
· 3h
Josh Frydenberg just gave Liberal voters who care about #climate a powerful reason to vote independent. Just said on #insiders the Liberals he may lead post-election would not help pass ambitious climate policy, forcing Labor to deal with Greens. Talk about an own goal #auspol
Taylormade @ #633 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 12:40 pm
Aw, poor widdle Liberal Party, having yet another scare campaign knocked out of the park by Labor. 🙂
Scotty isn’t getting much love on Twitter #Bathurst1000 .
Greensborough Growler @ #694 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 10:00 am
Frydenberg just stated that the Coalition have no intention of acting appropriately on climate.
There is no need for a negotiation if the election is close.
Anyone advocating action, as part of their election platform, now has no choice but to support a Labor Government.
The Libs (with the demands of Barnaby) have managed to wedge themselves royally on 2030…..after a decade of wedging Labor. Categorically saying they wont lift the target gives them no room to move, rather foolish position to put yourself in.
Voices of Kooyong
@VoicesofKooyong
· Nov 30
BREAKING:
Kooyong’s independent candidate launch will be Saturday 11 December!
Save the date and book your spot now.
#auspol #VoicesofKooyong
UK Cartoons:
Martin Rowson on Shell’s exit from the Cambo oil field
Torchbearer,
Barnaby is the special sauce for Labor this time around.
You can see all those Teal Independent voters doing their “Not Happy, Jan” impressions every time his name is mentioned.
The Greens will also marginalise themselves in this Election if they persist with their usual screeching and carry on. A lot of people want some real action on CC and Labor is the only game in town if you want some progress in the next Parliament.
Who will these Indies preference though when they lose? They only there because voters cant bring themselves to vote Labor who are the only ones who are capable of any action on CC.
So with the Federal government now making vaccines available to the 5 year to 11 year cohort
How does this play out with the anti vaxxer demographic, which is where their vote is?
No doubt they will protest at vaccinating children
In another breaking scandal for Morrison, the person who actually put up that Christmas decoration at the Morrison residence has been identified and it doesn’t look it was Scott wot dun it!
Girls doing the work so the man can claim credit.
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases continue to rise ( weekend results )
– New cases: 56,237 ……………………. – New deaths: 517
– In hospital: 58,281 (+369)
– In ICU: 14,075 (+36)
808,608 total deaths now
No cases with the Omicron variant have yet been admitted to hospital in NSW for COVID-19 treatment.
Keeping my fingers crossed that this doesn’t change.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-records-286-covid-19-cases-amid-further-omicron-infections-20211205-p59evn.html
Disturbingly, GG seems a little obsessed with the Morrison girls and their decorations.
Confessions,
I need to clarify a comment I made about Abduls last night.
It its indeed an amazing restaurant. I had a bad experience 5 years ago, but I wonder if the family were taking a holiday or something, as I did not recognise anyone serving there at that time.
I went back last year, with my mother for lunch, and it was back to its brilliant self, with loads of people there. We had the vegetarian plate, and with was amazing. although I did miss the dolmades.
Actually, a few other places seem to have stopped doing dolmades. Perhaps too fiddly and expensive?
Some zingers from Albo at the pre- campaign rally today:
Albanese on leadership:
“In tough times, every one of us has to hold a hose.”
On Morrison’s relationship with the truth, Albanese said:
“[He is] a prime minister who has no regard for what he said yesterday – so you should have no regard to what he says today.”
What is it with these drunk Nationals?
‘Northern Territory senator Sam McMahon has been accused of trying to physically punch one of her Nationals party colleagues in a Canberra pub.
Witnesses told Sky News Senator McMahon took “multiple swings” at Jonathan Hawkes, the Nationals’ federal director, during the party’s Christmas drinks on Thursday night.
Senator McMahon had allegedly been drinking at the event with fellow MPs and staffers when she allegedly took three or four swings at Mr Hawkes.’
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/senator-sam-mcmahon-allegedly-tried-to-punch-nationals-federal-director-in-canberra-pub/news-story/e7833a4d854d41a6a79f4da7c8ed511c
I asked about that specifically last time I was there. Apparently you can’t get the vine leaves. When I asked why, I was told “Trouble back home” (ie. Lebanon).