A woman’s place

More on Pearce preselection prospects, another parliamentary retirement announcement, and a poll suggesting WA voters favour Tanya Plibersek over Anthony Albanese.

After an eventful conclusion to the year’s parliamentary sittings, more retirement announcements and preselection news, plus an opinion poll of sorts.

• The Financial Review reports there are two leading candidates to replace Christian Porter as the Liberal candidate in Pearce: Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (and granddaughter of Joseph and Enid Lyons), and Nicole Robbins, a Melville councillor and high school teacher. No mention is made of Miquela Riley and Alyssa Hayden, who featured in a report in The West Australian on Thursday. Michael Read of the Financial Review reports former state Hillarys MP Peter Katsambanis has indicated he would have been a contender had not the state government’s “heavy-handed” border restrictions left him stranded in Melbourne, but he would have had to contend with the party leadership’s clear preference that a woman be selected to succeed Porter.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Christian Porter’s decision to jump ship was influenced by internal polling for his seat that was, according to a source familiar with the matter, “not good”. However, the remainder of the report emphasises Labor’s hard path to a majority: the Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. Elsewhere in the Financial Review, Michael Read of the Financial Review reports both parties expect Labor to win the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Gladys Liu.

• Damian Drum, who has held the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls (known before 2019 as Murray) for the Nationals since 2016, has announced he will not contest the election. Rob Harris of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals now hope to recover the seat, which Drum won upon the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. Anticipated Nationals preselection candidates are Sam Birrell, former chief executive of the Committee for Shepparton; Michael Dobbie, former paralympian and staffer to Liberal MP Jane Prentice and Nationals MP Darren Chester; and Amanda McClaren, former Strathbogie Shire mayor. The only Liberal mentioned is Stephen Brooks, a “Cobram school teacher, irrigator and former international commodities trader”. Rob Priestly, Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and co-owner of an industrial laundry firm in Shepparton, recently announced he would run as an independent.

• The Katina Curtis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run, and also in Parramatta, where the Liberals are hoping the retirement of sitting member Julie Owens will help them knock over the 3.5% Labor margin. State Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has thus far resisted entreaties to run, which have displeased Dominic Perrottet, who would sooner avoid further by-elections.

• The West Australian has a poll by Painted Dog Research in which 801 Western Australian respondents were presented with a four-way preferred prime minister question, putting Scott Morrison at 41%, Tanya Plibersek at 32%, Anthony Albanese at 22% and Peter Dutton at 4%. Plibersek led Morrison by 41% to 36% among women, while Morrison led 47% to 25% among men. When asked who they trusted more out of the Premier and the Prime Minister, Mark McGowan scored 78% and Morrison 22%. Here too there was a significant gender gap, with McGowan’s lead of 71-29 among men comparing with 86-14 among women.

Affairs of state:

• Antony Green notes on Twitter that South Australia’s parliament has adjourned ahead of the election without having corrected the legislative anomaly that means pre-poll votes are not counted on election night, which is now unique to the state. As a result, the election night count will be “quick, over early, but will be very incomplete with no guarantee we will know the outcome until the declaration votes start being counted on the Monday after the election”.

• Yoni Bashan of The Australian reports Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate since her daughter and three of her cousins were killed after in February last year after a ute mounted the kerb, is considering an approach from the New South Wales Liberals to run in the looming Strathfield by-election. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of ousted Labor leader Jodi McKay, who held the seat by 5.0% in 2019.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “A woman’s place”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  1. I still dream about Abduls’ food:

    ● The best falafels anywhere,
    ● Fresh humous,
    ● Even fresher bread,
    ● Coriander potato,
    ● Coriander potato (worth listing twice),
    ● Lebbo sandwiches that leave you feeling you’ve really eaten.

  3. “Witnesses told Sky News Senator McMahon took “multiple swings” at Jonathan Hawkes, the Nationals’ federal director, during the party’s Christmas drinks on Thursday night.”

    Tis the season!

  6. Bushfire Bill says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 1:52 pm
    Some zingers from Albo at the pre- campaign rally today:

    Albanese on leadership:
    “In tough times, every one of us has to hold a hose.”

    On Morrison’s relationship with the truth, Albanese said:
    “[He is] a prime minister who has no regard for what he said yesterday – so you should have no regard to what he says today.”

    ______________________________

    I’m increasingly confident of Labor’s chances at the next election.

    After 2019 nobody thinks the polls showing Labor well ahead are accurate.

    Phil Coorey and others talking about Labor’s hard path to power further entrenches the idea that Labor cannot take the election for granted like 2019.

    Labor’s climate policy doesn’t scare the punters while offering those sick to death of political climate wars an acceptable compromise. The hysterical response of those to the left of Labor helps cement the idea of Labor’s policy as a sensible middle ground response (especially as it doesn’t offer the prospect of pain to anyone).

    And now Labor is making it about the trustworthiness of the Liar (and his band of graspers), which is absolutely what it should do. That comment though about everyone holding a hose is not so much about leadership, but about shirking. Another Australian ‘value’, although it does not get as much of a run these days, is about everyone pitching in to help in a crisis. That hose comment correctly paints the Liar as a piker – not there when the work is to be done but at the front of the queue when the rewards and celebrations are on.

  7. ParkySP
    “4. The show missed Kathryn Murphy this morning. Would have loved her to be a 4th journo on to call out the BS from Campbell, Coorey and Frydenburg in her very clear way.”

    Murphy was on Insiders last week. She was quite subdued. Not her usual witty and incisive self, I thought. Plus a technical glitch robbed her of her ‘final observations’.

  9. This is the same Sam McMahon who was “maggotted” in parliament a few months back. I’m starting to wonder if having a drinking problem is a requirement for National party preselection.

  10. I asked about that specifically last time I was there. Apparently you can’t get the vine leaves. When I asked why, I was told “Trouble back home” (ie. Lebanon).

    Given how many grape vines are grown in Australia, is there a reason why they can’t be sourced locally?

  12. Nicko
    “SO Joshy has confirmed a LNP government of any kind will never do anything on climate change.
    So Labor is your only option.”

    No, the Greens are your only option. If you vote Greens, nothing will get done on climate change – but you get to brag about it.

  13. TPOF I agree with your optimism, ALP would have to be the favourite unless something comes out of left field. Phil Coorey of late at least has become a real LNP apologist, his assessment is sanguine about their chances – way too sanguine for a mob who only just scraped home last time on a scare campaign. They are carrying so much weight in the saddle bags that the horse is only able to amble along but to Coorey this is immaterial. I know Albo is no Hawke or Whitlam or Rudd who for one reason or another really turned the voters on but he seems to be going with the flow and making the right noises just at the right time. No-one loved Abbott but he won the election and I reckon unlike “Abbottabad” people will grow to like Albo.

  17. So Frydenberg says the Liberal Party has to do more to recruit women

    Then you look at the women they do recruit

    And, just maybe, THAT is the problem

    The women who represent them

  20. Campaign launch was a lot of fun. Good energy, and Marles hit the right notes with his attack on Morrison the Phony. Was tightly scripted as these things always are but Albanese looks confident and ready. The things which stood out for me were the excellent young candidate for Reid and the obcious point that Labor really, really wants to put Albo up against Morrison in a contest over character and trustworthiness.

    Also, the young doctor they have running in Robertson is a great bloke. Almost a poster boy of a candidate.

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #768 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 3:23 pm

    Matthew Guy targets Liberal trolls like Taylormade.

    “He said there should be “no more talk, no more keyboard warriors” and urged members to provide an alternative to the incumbent Labor government”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-05/matthew-guy-reveals-2b-manufacturing-plan-at-liberal-council/100675362

    Libs love corporate welfare and trickle down rhetoric.

    Frydenberg still complaining today about lockdowns, but no-one asked him why his Govt knocked back Pfizers offer in 2020 which ended up causing lockdowns in 2021. #VoicesofKooyong

    Sumeyya Ilanbey
    @sumeyyailanbey
    ·
    4h
    Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says Melbourne going from world’s most liveable city to world’s most locked-down city is “a reminder of why we need good government”. “Matthew [Guy], I say to your whole team, we’re right behind you.”

  24. Credlin is sincere alright. Since she found out that instead of being Islamic, the South Sudanese are 93% Christian she has really changed her mind about them:

    In her Friday apology, Credlin clarified that the South Sudanese community was not involved with the end-of-Ramadan cluster and “indeed more than 93% of South Sudanese-born members of the community are Christian, not Muslim”.

  25. Observer @ #729 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 12:20 pm

    So Frydenberg says the Liberal Party has to do more to recruit women

    Then you look at the women they do recruit

    And, just maybe, THAT is the problem

    The women who represent them

    But that seems to be an issue with most of their candidates irrespective of their sex.

    The Liberals seem to be vacating the centre leaving a vacuum which the independents are targeting.

    I wish the independents all the success possible as it may help to create a more rational nuanced political contest rather than the binary extremes that have emerged over the last decade or so.

  26. The voters of Kew in Victoria might be looking for an Independent at the next state election given Matthew Guy and Tim Smith have abandoned their representation of them. Massive show of disrespect from the Vic Libs.

  28. Burgey @ #677 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 3:24 pm

    Campaign launch was a lot of fun. Good energy, and Marles hit the right notes with his attack on Morrison the Phony. Was tightly scripted as these things always are but Albanese looks confident and ready. The things which stood out for me were the excellent young candidate for Reid and the obcious point that Labor really, really wants to put Albo up against Morrison in a contest over character and trustworthiness.

    Also, the young doctor they have running in Robertson is a great bloke. Almost a poster boy of a candidate.

    Yep. And I’m proud to be the first person he asked to sign his nomination form. 😀

  29. nath
    “In her Friday apology, Credlin clarified that the South Sudanese community was not involved with the end-of-Ramadan cluster and “indeed” more than 93% of South Sudanese-born members of the community are Christian, not Muslim”.

    Even her apology sounds vaguely offensive.

  30. nath @ #736 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 12:36 pm

    Credlin is sincere alright. Since she found out that instead of being Islamic, the South Sudanese are 93% Christian she has really changed her mind about them:

    In her Friday apology, Credlin clarified that the South Sudanese community was not involved with the end-of-Ramadan cluster and “indeed more than 93% of South Sudanese-born members of the community are Christian, not Muslim”.

    That’s not new information, it was pointed out at the time.

    The formation of South Sudan was largely about this cultural divide.

  32. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:

    That’s not new information, it was pointed out at the time.
    ______
    What are you talking about? It’s obviously new information to Credlin.

  35. Was Morrison actually booed? I’m not seeing any reference to that in the article, just some detailed accounts of Scomo being a wanker.

  36. The prime minister, Scott Morrison, and NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, are speaking to the media in Forbes, where they have visited flood damaged areas.

    I bet Scott’s team gave consideration to a photo of him rescuing someone from the flood.

  37. Safety car called to escort an echidna off the side of the track. #Bathurst1000

    Well done to the track crew for spotting it, and the drivers for avoiding it while it was in the middle of the track.

  39. Nicko says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 2:08 pm
    SO Joshy has confirmed a LNP government of any kind will never do anything on climate change.
    So Labor is your only option.

    Abbott won from Opposition and then both Turnbull and Morrison defended their majority by promising to resist action on the climate. This has been a one-way street for the Reactionaries for more than a decade. Their aggression has been very amply rewarded in the past. They will be very tentative about changing their polemics/policies. The Nationals are openly campaigning against any change at all.

    Maybe time is up for them. Maybe. Presumably the Lib-positive plurality is splitting apart on climate policy, and in this case they will try to have their cake and eat: to vote for the Lites, and thereby vote for change while also opposing Labor.

  40. Such an Australian thing to do. Stopping the biggest race in Australian Motor Sport to preserve a native animal.

    Congrats to the organisers for making it happen.

  43. Has anyone noticed that the potential liberal candidates for Pearce are south of the river and Pearce is the most northern part of the Perth region. They have no chance.

    For eastern staters it is the equivalent of Sydney eastern suburbs and western or the shire and north shore / northern beaches or Melbourne eastern suburbs v north or western suburbs.

  44. James says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:30 pm
    Has anyone noticed that the potential liberal candidates for Pearce are south of the river and Pearce is the most northern part of the Perth region. They have no chance.

    The Liberal Party in the electorate of Pearce itself would barely exist. They might be able to count 20 members but even that would be open to question.

  45. Sumeyya (The Age) and Willingham (ABC) are ‘journalists’ whose job it is to amplify the mutterings of Victorian Liberals, thinking they are doing the party a favour. However, these media hacks don’t realise the damage it does to Josh, Matthew, etc. Best they keep it hush-hush, and spare them the embarrassment.

    Sumeyya Ilanbey@sumeyyailanbey · 4h
    Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says Melbourne going from world’s most liveable city to world’s most locked-down city is “a reminder of why we need good government”. “Matthew [Guy], I say to your whole team, we’re right behind you.”

  46. “Little guy was lucky! I cannot imagine the momentary panic the drivers felt when they saw it on the track”

    I imagine the echidna experienced no small amount of panic too.

  47. poroti says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:25 pm
    What a make over ,that or Albo’s body double ain’t very good. I like the pitch.

    ‘Renewal, not revolution’: Labor leader …..

    Renewal….modernisation….whilst bringing the country together. This is Labor’s historic mission. Hawke built a long-lasting reformist Government on these principles. The reactionaries are fundamentally incapable of this.

    Albo seems to grasp this.

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