Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Slight improvement in the Coalition’s voting intention numbers, but Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to track down.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 53-47, in from 54-46 three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 44% and up two on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 37% and up two to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has been cut from 48-34 to 46-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1524.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 31
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  1. ‘DisplayName says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 4:01 pm

    Boerwar

    Sure, there must be explanations for China’s imperial expansion.

    The point is that we don’t need to hypothesise “imperial expansion” as a motivation to explain that list.

    (and your cute act that you’re not inferring, implying, or otherwise discussing motive is not fooling anyone – not when you keep mentioning the motivation you claim not to be discussing …)’
    —————————-
    Imperial expansion is not a motivation. It is a behaviour. It is a series of territorial grabs. You may profess to know the motivations for China’s imperial expansion. BiTB does. I don’t.

  2. In regards to the 2024 US Presidential election, I don’t know what’s going to happen in an election that’s still three years away.

    Hell, I can’t even tell you with any great confidence what’s going to happen in an election 4-6 months away, despite current one-sided polling.

  3. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 4:05 pm

    I don’t need to know you Wat Tyler…

    I just know what you post.

    Actions speak louder than words.

    Like I said, you started the rabbit hole, you should jump in it.

  4. It’s obvious there is a misconception here.

    “Imperial ambition” is a hypothesis for that list of observations. There may be further sub-hypotheses related to “imperial ambition” but nobody has proposed any. What people have proposed (e.g. strategic or historical claims) are *alternative* hypotheses (to imperial ambition) for that list of observations.

    Imperial expansion is not a motivation. It is a behaviour.

    Expansion is a behaviour. Describing it as “imperial” attributes motivation, or particular ambitions.

    I don’t.

    When you use the word “imperial”, you do.

  5. mikehilliard says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 3:35 pm

    If what I paid at the bowser on Friday is any indication Morrison doesn’t need Labor to drive up petrol prices.
    ——————–
    Petrol prices are the bellwether for inflation but are politically dangerous because most people in ICE vehicles pick it up almost straight away.

  6. C@t

    Yep.

    At present it is merely a grifting exercise for Trump and co.
    The fact that so may idiots continue to support this conman is baffling. It’s not as if he is supremely handsome and charismatic.
    He has no redeeming qualities whatsoever

    It really has got me stumped.

  11. Yeah, now we’re just down to meaningless word salad. There’s nothing remotely useful to come out of continuing this back and forth. We’re done. Any further attempts at engagement will be ignored. I feel like a fool for even bothering in the first place. Good day, Zerlo.

  13. Furthermore, predictions that China will continue its expansion past that list necessarily depend on inferred motiviations.

  14. arney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 3:39 pm

    Boerwar @ #355 Monday, November 15th, 2021 – 12:15 pm

    DisplayName says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 2:44 pm

    Boerwar
    You claim that China has imperial ambitions, and then you say that you’re not commenting on their motivations. That’s a contradiction.
    ….
    ———————————-
    What I am saying is look at what they do: Tibet. Hong Kong. Bits of India. Bits of Bhutan. Bits of the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.
    You might want to go on what they say as well and add Taiwan, parts of Japan, and the unequal treaty portions of the far east.

    Well if Tibet should have their sovereignty returned, then why shouldn’t Hong Kong and Taiwan be returned to China? After all Taiwan was the recognised Chinese Government until the early 70s.

    What part of the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia have they taken? As I said earlier the South China Sea reefs and islands were disputed and controlled by no one.

    Bhutan, has there been anything from the Bhutanese Government saying that the complex that China has built was without their knowledge and approval?

    India, long running disputed border.

    Yes, sounds like a huge expansion beyond China’s current borders.
    ——————————
    Sure. There is only one rule for the comrades. If territory is disputed it is Chinese territory. Did you know that practically all the Russian Far East was once inside Chinese borders? Did you know that the whole of Vietnam, the korean pensinsula, Laos and Cambodia and parts of Burma were once part of China. Did you know that Luzon was run by a Chinese governor? Enormous scope for rationalizing the spread of the Chinese empire, don’t you think? You just make up some ‘borders’ and then fight until you reach them. After that… who knows?
    As noted for the Roman, english, US, british, dutch, french, russian and german empires there are always reasons and motivations. They were all bullshit. The realities were always prestige, power and money. Imperial expansion was always accompanied by force or threat of force. The locals were always exploited by the imperialists. The resources were always plundered. And, just to make your really, really happy, there were always ‘cultural’ reasons why the imperialists were behaving as they were. Christianity, civilization… blah, blah, blah.

  15. DisplayName says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 4:18 pm

    Furthermore, predictions that China will continue its expansion past that list necessarily depend on inferred motiviations.
    ———————
    As are predictions based on China stopping its imperial expansion.

    In fact the premise in both those statements is nearly always tacitly assumed by both the hawks and the doves when it should be front and centre.

  16. “Barnaby is making an ass of himself on Karvelas show and she’s getting mad with him.”

    Given the very dismissive and arrogant attitude, i can see why she is pissed off.

  17. ‘DisplayName says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 4:11 pm

    It’s obvious there is a misconception here.

    “Imperial ambition” is a hypothesis for that list of observations. There may be further sub-hypotheses related to “imperial ambition” but nobody has proposed any. What people have proposed (e.g. strategic or historical claims) are *alternative* hypotheses (to imperial ambition) for that list of observations.

    Imperial expansion is not a motivation. It is a behaviour.

    Expansion is a behaviour. Describing it as “imperial” attributes motivation, or particular ambitions.

    I don’t.

    When you use the word “imperial”, you do.’
    ————————————
    empire: ‘an extensive group of states or countries ruled over by a single monarch, an oligarchy, or a sovereign state.’

    You can call it something else. The Uighers, Tibetans, citizens of Hong Kong and shortly, Taiwan would beg to differ.

  18. I really am not interested in discussing the topic because of previously mentioned burnout but I think a lot of US commentary right now is driven by confirmation bias. Those who didn’t want Biden to win last year for whatever reason are finding evidence of his inevitable premature demise. Those who went the other way are finding it hard to fathom that Trump could have any future appeal whatsoever.

  21. Boerwar

    As are predictions based on China stopping its imperial expansion.

    In fact the premise in both those statements is nearly always tacitly assumed by both the hawks and the doves when it should be front and centre.

    That’s a fair enough comment.

  26. “Trump will not be president again.

    He is slowly but surely being exposed as the seditious traitor he really is.”

    ***

    I hope you’re right but it is very important that he not be underestimated again. He isn’t going away and Biden is in very vulnerable position with not a lot going for him. There’s certainly trouble in paradise when even CNN is writing pretty damming articles about the Dems such as this one…

    Exasperation and dysfunction: Inside Kamala Harris’ frustrating start as vice president

    (CNN)Worn out by what they see as entrenched dysfunction and lack of focus, key West Wing aides have largely thrown up their hands at Vice President Kamala Harris and her staff — deciding there simply isn’t time to deal with them right now, especially at a moment when President Joe Biden faces quickly multiplying legislative and political concerns.

    The exasperation runs both ways. Interviews with nearly three dozen former and current Harris aides, administration officials, Democratic operatives, donors and outside advisers — who spoke extensively to CNN — reveal a complex reality inside the White House. Many in the vice president’s circle fume that she’s not being adequately prepared or positioned, and instead is being sidelined. The vice president herself has told several confidants she feels constrained in what she’s able to do politically. And those around her remain wary of even hinting at future political ambitions, with Biden’s team highly attuned to signs of disloyalty, particularly from the vice president.

    She’s a heartbeat away from the presidency now. She could be just a year away from launching a presidential campaign of her own, given doubts throughout the political world that Biden will actually go through with a reelection bid in 2024, something he’s pledged to do publicly and privately. Or she’ll be a critical validator in three years for a President trying to get the country to reelect him to serve until he’s 86.

    Few of the insiders who spoke with CNN think she’s being well-prepared for whichever role it will be. Harris is struggling with a rocky relationship with some parts of the White House, while long-time supporters feel abandoned and see no coherent public sense of what she’s done or been trying to do as vice president. Being the first woman, and first woman of color, in national elected office is historic but has also come with outsized scrutiny and no forgiveness for even small errors, as she’ll often point out.

    Defenders and people who care for Harris are getting frantic. When they’re annoyed, some pass around a recent Onion story mocking her lack of more substantive work, one with the headline, “White House Urges Kamala Harris To Sit At Computer All Day In Case Emails Come Through.” When they’re depressed, they bat down the Aaron Sorkin-style rumor that Biden might try to replace her by nominating her to a Supreme Court vacancy. That chatter has already reached top levels of the Biden orbit, according to one person who’s heard it.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/14/politics/kamala-harris-frustrating-start-vice-president/index.html

  27. The Guardian blogger doesn’t have a hope in hell of capturing the agony of that Barnaby interview. Has to be seen to believed.

  28. People were wondering if Michelle Rowland would have anything to say about the ABC? Here is what she said today:

    Scott Morrison’s government has launched an extraordinary attack on the ABC and is trying to silence them ahead of the next election.

    Government Senators have launched an inquiry into the ABC which ABC Chair Ita Buttrose has called “political interference designed to intimidate the ABC and mute its role as this country’s most trusted source of public interest journalism”.1, 2

    This is just another example of how Scott Morrison and the Liberals will attack anybody who speaks truth to power in Australia. The ABC has been in their sights for years. There is now a clear pattern of intimidation of the ABC under Scott Morrison. It has suffered funding cuts, public attacks from cabinet ministers and calls for its privatisation.

    With a Liberal government in power, the ABC will never be safe.

    The independence of the ABC from government interference is what allows it to do the fearless reporting all Australians rely upon.

    Over the term of the 46th Parliament, the ABC and SBS have provided invaluable programs and services to help Australians through natural disasters, the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated “infodemic” of misinformation.

    Meanwhile, the Morrison-Joyce Government has overseen funding cuts to the ABC, misled the public about these cuts, attacked the ABC Board in response to a Four Corners investigation, and failed to act on the recommendations of two inquiries into press freedom in the wake of AFP raids on journalists at the ABC and News Corp.

    Labor will always stick up for the ABC. We can’t risk letting Scott Morrison have another term in government where he and his conservative mates attack the ABC at every corner.

  29. C@tmomma:

    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 4:01 pm

    [‘Labor are offering a Rebate’]

    Thanks for that. Some countries have a huge lead on us – eg, Norway. I blame Morrison and his cabinet of
    troglodytes. But I guess they’re only doing what they’re trained to do, prevent progress.

  31. The Monthly on the ABC:

    The PM says the ABC is not “above scrutiny”, but his government seems to be.

    Tensions between the Coalition and the public broadcaster have escalated, as ABC chair Ita Buttrose continues her pushback against an extraordinary Senate inquiry into the broadcaster’s complaints-handling process. Buttrose, who last night released a withering statement accusing the government of “political interference”, doubled down this morning, telling RN Breakfast that there was nothing “regular” about the way this was being done, despite the PM labelling the process “business as usual”. The inquiry was announced last week, seemingly unilaterally, by Communications committee chair Andrew Bragg, whom the PM’s office reportedly “rapped over the knuckles” on the weekend for going beyond his brief. But when asked about Buttrose’s criticism in his latest electioneering press conference, the PM insisted the inquiry was a normal process. “There is nobody above the scrutiny of the Senate,” he proclaimed. “I don’t know why they would consider themselves an exception to business as usual,” said the leader of a government that regularly treats itself as an exception to the rule, and has done all it can to prevent scrutiny of its actions, ministers and policies.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2021/15/2021/1636951934/scrutineering

  32. firefox
    Veeps are nearly always neither seen nor heard.
    Smart ones learn to work with the POTUS because it is the POTUS who makes the rules.
    It sounds from that description as if the Harris entourage thought that it would be handed to them on a platter.

  33. More good points by Rachel Withers at The Monthly:

    That well-known tendency to avoid accountability at any cost has made Morrison’s claim – that his government’s troubling inquiry into the ABC is simply about good old-fashioned “scrutiny” – all the more outrageous, and many are crying hypocrisy. This is the same government, after all, that would not even allow motions calling for an inquiry into allegations against former minister Christian Porter to be tabled in the Senate, and which later upended precedent to protect Porter from having his “blind trust” donation scrutinised by the privileges committee. It’s the same Coalition that makes Senate estimates as painful as possible, with a growing number of unanswered “questions on notice”, and often fails to have the appropriate representatives show up for questioning at all. And, of course, it vehemently opposes introducing a federal anti-corruption commission that could actually look into its most egregious instances of pork-barrelling.

    The hypocrisy of this government is hilarious. If it wasn’t so serious.

  35. Boerwar
    I have no problem with that definition of Empire.

    The point is that your explanation for China’s expansion is that they desire to build an empire. Other explanations are that they are claiming lost territory or territory that serves some strategic interest (which could be offensive or defensive). Or maybe even some combination of all of these.

    All of “imperial”, “lost” and “strategic” imply motive. Their definitions are not in dispute. The issue is that you claim that you’re not implying anything.

    So, for the sake of argument let’s say you are not trying to imply anything, and take “imperial” as a purely neutral and descriptive term of the territory that China covers. That is, “China and the territories it covers are an empire”. Not “China is on an empire building spree”. In that case, there’s nothing to extrapolate from your list, and nothing to discuss.

  36. A headline from the US but is happening around the world including Australia. What is going on and how is it going to end, with a BANG ? Why are we seeing crazy rises in house prices here when demand produced by population growth has virtually stopped ?

    Will Real Estate Ever Be Normal Again?

    In the Covid-era market, prices are skyrocketing in Austin, Texas, and other cities around the U.S., forcing people to act like speculators.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/magazine/real-estate-pandemic.html

  37. DisplayName
    It is an empire now. For whatever reasons the empire is expanding its territory.
    As mentioned previously all expanding empires had ‘reasons’ why they had to expand.
    China? Why? Over to you.

  38. List: frog, vanilla bean, neutron star, green, microwave.
    Discuss.

    What’s there to discuss? Am I asking for an explanation. Nope, strenuous denials to the contrary, and browbeating of anyone who offers what they perceive to be a pattern. Am I asking for a value judgement? Who knows. Maybe this is some kind of rorschach test for PB?

  39. Boerwar
    “Why?
    Historical and defensive strategic reasons. The expansion will stop in a couple of decades on completion of that list.

    Done! Whew, that felt like an easy one. Did I get the answer right?

  40. “Wait, I’m confused. Is ThatUppityWoman too visible or not visible enough?!”

    ***

    Well I certainly think she should be more visible but it would seem that some in the Dems don’t want her to be. Would have thought she would be being prepared to take over from Biden should he not run again but apparently not?

  41. “Smart ones learn to work with the POTUS because it is the POTUS who makes the rules.
    It sounds from that description as if the Harris entourage thought that it would be handed to them on a platter.”

    ***

    Hard to tell exactly where the blame lies but it’s certainly not an ideal situation.

  42. Firefox says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 3:21 pm

    Campaigning for Trump again! already. Nothing changes among the junk-left.

  43. @BrownedoffB
    ·
    17m
    Matt Canavan just stated that the National Party has nothing to do with any agreement signed by the LNP Govt.
    It’s definitely Barnaby o’clock!

  44. Why are we seeing crazy rises in house prices here when demand produced by population growth has virtually stopped ?

    Dark energy?

  45. Ali King MP
    @AliKingLabor
    That’s twice in less than a week my office has been targeted by vaccine conspiracy theorists.

    Anyone who thinks public health measures equal Nazism needs to read a history book.

    I won’t stop encouraging our community to get protected by getting vaccinated!

  46. Labor’s policy is coming …

    Chalmers is asked when Labor will announce its 2030 target and how ambitious it will be.

    “In the coming weeks.”

    … but then so is Christmas. Coincidence? I think not 🙁

    There is also this gem …

    “This is symbolic, of eight years of shambolic and economically damaging inaction from the government, 22 or 23 different energy policies, after eight years in government they give us a pamphlet, not a plan, they sign up to an international agreement, they have no intention of keeping to.”

    There isn’t a policy the Coalition has ever put forward that Labor has not adopted in a desperate effort to avoid being wedged on the issue. Who here seriously thinks Labor is going to come up with a policy of their own during an election campaign?

    If you can think for yourself and want action on climate change, vote Independent.

  48. Hello again. Nice to see Mark McGowan putting Greg Hunt in his place. Is our Federal Health Minister a lying Hunt?

    I have also been catching up with the debate on EVs, including the Tesla v VW arguments of Nath, Sceptic and others.

    On this one occasion (unusually) I must agree with Nath. Tesla have a huge lead on all other manufacturers in their EV production capacity, technology and delivery cost efficiency. Tesla are on track to deliver 1 million EVs this year. No other manufacturer outside of China will come close.

    Tesla’s profit margin per EV is far greater than any European rival, meaning they should pull further ahead. Demand for Teslas exceeds supply, so they can name their price, and cannot lose money. Tesla bet the house on the Model 3, and it has been a smash hit. In Australia 2/3s of all EV sales in 2021 are Tesla Model 3s. If you order now, you get your Tesla in February.

    VW will exceed 300,000 EVs this year. VW’s Zwickau plant has a maximum capacity (VW’s figures) of 330,000 per annum. Their China plant is just starting up. The whole of Germany produced 5 million cars in 2019; VW made 8 million worldwide, including all the owned subsidiaries outside Germany. Tesla’s Berlin plant alone will produce 250,000 per year from 2022, and will expand to 500,000 per annum.

    The keys to EV production are battery production and software, not bodyshells. Tesla has the market dominated on both. A single Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada can be expanded to 1 million batteries per year. Other manufacturers will take years to catch up to that.

    I recommend listening to this podcast which interviews German auto industry analyst Alex Voigt. He is not pro-Tesla; he is concerned Tesla is about to wipe out some legacy German car companies, because they have been too slow switching to EVs.
    https://fullycharged.show/podcasts/podcast-130-talking-tesla-with-alex-voigt/

  49. If you want any action on climate change then a Labor government is a must, otherwise those “independents” will be totally ignored like the last 8 years.

  50. Caught a snippet on ABC News24 this afternoon where someone was giving a ‘round up of the day’s LNP exudations. Wtte…”they are just throwing mud in this pre-election period to see what sticks”
    In other words, The Prime Marketer hasn’t a f#$*ing clue what to do following a week or two of “Energiser Bunny” and he’s pissed that it’s having F…all effect on the polls.
    Expect “Labor regional branches lit the Black Summer Bushfires” to be given a go tomorrow.

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