Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Slight improvement in the Coalition’s voting intention numbers, but Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to track down.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 53-47, in from 54-46 three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 44% and up two on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 37% and up two to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has been cut from 48-34 to 46-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1524.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Fully vaccinated as a percentage of population

    NSW 77.1%
    Australia 70.2%

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccines

    Compared to
    Denmark 76.2%
    Spain 80.2%
    Malta 83.4%
    Singapore 86.25%
    Portugal 87.6%

    And Singapore demonstrates how a wealthy country that is even more highly vaccinated than Australia can still be suffering high levels of infections.

  2. Sprocket correctly says the Libs have pissed away $3bn on subs to save a seat in Adelaide.

    The seat is Sturt. The member saved was Christopher Pyne (by just 900 votes in 2007). The subs will never be built in Adelaide.

    Now that Pyne has gone, replaced by a silent member, and the whole fiasco is there for all to see, Labor has devised a stunning strategy for Sturt – delay selecting a candidate until the last possible minute.

    That should work very well indeed.

  3. covid19data conveniently breaks this down into whole population, 12+ and 16+

    For NSW its
    79.7 double dose whole population
    77.1 at least one dose whole population
    —-
    90.4 double dose in 12+
    93.5 at least one dose in 12+
    —-
    94.3 double dose in 16+
    91.4 at least one dose in 16+

    And if you look at the detailed age breakdowns in https://covidbaseau.com/vaccinations/ you get

    NSW (at least one dose)
    12-15 80.68%
    16-19 89.76%
    20-24 87.04%
    25-29 87.13%
    30-34 91.07%

    And then it stays in the 90s.

    So, kids 12-15 has still got a way to go and that’s about educating parents.
    And the 20 somethings is still a problem and needs targeting. We should continue the ban on unvaccinated people using social venues and not drop it in December as Perrottet wants.

    And we should be hurrying up with kids 6-11. We already have enough real world data. Just get on with it.

  4. Oh well, that’s it then.

    Shown the footage of the 2018 remark on ABC TV program The Drum on Wednesday night, Ms Sudmalis said she knew the background in what was the worst week of her political career.

    “When I spoke to Scott he said: ‘I don’t want this job – I’m not ready for it yet’,” she said.

    Asked if she believed him, Ms Sudmalis said: “Yes, I did.”

    Ms Sudmalis said she knew Mr Morrison better than many others and believed it was not his plan to topple Mr Turnbull.

    “It was not his plan. The whole plan was to try and keep Malcolm there,” she said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-don-t-want-this-job-liberal-reveals-scott-morrison-s-claim-about-tilt-for-pm-20211117-p599v0.html

    One person, claiming special access to Morrison’s thinking, tells us that “he is the accidental PM”.

    And I believe her. No-one could have been more surprised than Scott Morrison when someone at the spill meeting elbowed him in the ribs, woke him up, and said, “Hey Scotty. You’re PM!”.

    And, written by David Crowe, you just KNOW it’s all true.

  5. Scott Morrison knows who are the gullible fools in his party and he plays them like a piano.

    Scott Morrison wanted to be Prime Minister of Australia ever since he was a sperm on the way to his mother’s egg.

  6. Of course Morrison had to appear the reluctant Prime Minister to Sudmalis. She was one of the few who genuinely liked Malcolm.

    I’m guessing that Morrison assumed that if Sudmalis believed that he had been maneuvering for the position then he feared that she might do something wild and abstain from the Dutton/Morrison ballot, which was close and he needed her.


  7. phylactellasays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 9:29 pm
    PM Tells Those Offended By Protestors With Nooses – “It could Be Worse They Could Be Shooting People”

    https://theunaustralian.net/2021/11/17/pm-tells-those-offended-by-protestors-with-nooses-it-could-be-worse-they-could-be-shooting-people/

    Unbelievable. It reminds me of the statement Morrison made in Parliament when women protested in front National Parliament.

    “Not far from here, such marches, even now are being met with bullets, but not here in this country,” Mr Morrison told Parliament.”

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/13251804?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16371480313691&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2021-03-16%2Fbullets-women-march-4-justice-scott-morrison%2F13251804

  8. Of course, it wasn’t really Morrison who brought down Turnbull. It was Dutton, but Morrison sensed the opportunity to gather the support of the Moderates who dislike Dutton. It was a well executed double play, and probably the most competent thing he has done.

  9. Socrates @ #1486 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 7:09 pm

    Agreed. It is a terrible time to buy a new car in Australia right now. Less long term prospects than Tim Smith.

    That bad, huh?

    Cud Chewer @ #1491 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 7:21 pm

    The people who advised Turnbull are the ones that deserve to be taken out and shot. People like Henry Ergas (who strangely enough got a nice gig at the new NBNco) and certain other parties who knew what they were doing was dodgy but didn’t mind the dosh.

    No doubt there was a bunch of sharks in that pool to help guide Mal in his choices.


  10. nathsays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:19 pm
    Of course, it wasn’t really Morrison who brought down Turnbull. It was Dutton, but Morrison sensed the opportunity to gather the support of the Moderates who dislike Dutton. It was a well executed double play, and probably the most competent thing he has done.

    You say you are a supporter of Albanese. But I never read you criticise Morrison once about his political behavior. Not once. You already posted atleast 2 positive comments today on Morrison.


  11. Bushfire Billsays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:21 pm
    Ven,

    Check the link. It’s to the UN-australian.

    I know the article is about UN rep being stunned about Morrison statement. But the article includes Morrison statement and orther comments supportive of Morrison.

  12. Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:25 pm

    You say you are a supporter of Albanese. But I never read you criticise Morrison once about his political behavior. Not once. You already posted atleast 2 positive comments today on Morrison.
    _____________
    I will have to up my anti-Morrison game then. Perhaps some memes or Scumo word play?

  13. The WA Upper House

    We have seen long term Conservative (now Right Wing) governments over history due to gerrymanders

    Think SA (Playford)

    Think Queensland

    And don’t stop there

    It has been Australia wide

    And that is before you get to appointments, donors and the list goes on and on

    Murdoch and the other media Chairs are just part of the entrenchment which puts a question over democracy

    Even the references to a liberal democracy

    So define “liberal”

  14. Herald Sun 17/12

    The Andrew government’s pandemic laws are in crisis with Adem Somyurek set to sensationally defy his former party and block the controversial Bill.

    Somyurek on Wednesday night told the Herald Sun he would sensationally return to parliament to oppose the Bill, saying it gives “too much power to the government” and could lead to a “tyranny of rule by decree”.
    _____________________

  15. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:38 pm

    Ven, the “unaustralian” is a satirical site; a pretend newspaper.
    ________
    Don’t listen to him Ven. BB is a spreader of mischief and possibly an agent for the IPA.


  16. Mavissays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 8:12 pm
    Lizzie:

    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 7:57 pm

    [‘Mavis

    I couldn’t follow most of Sen Bragg’s justification. Made me think it’s just a political stunt with nothing behind it. He’s not the brightest.’]

    That’s because he didn’t have one. I get the feeling he wants to make a name for himself with the right-wing media & also his Party. I may’ve missed it but Labor should be all over this, in particular Rowlands, the Shadow Minister for Communications

    Mavis
    Following is my post today morning on this topic. 🙂

    Vensays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:11 am

    Zac Crellin reports that notable ABC figures have thrown their weight behind chair Ita Buttrose’s stinging condemnation of a new Senate Inquiry engineered by controversial Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/16/abc-andrew-bragg-inquiry/

    Probably Andrew Bragg wanted bragging rights to bring down ABC, the institution, which is reportedly the pet project of LNP, IPA and Murdoch press.

  17. Vensays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:19 pm

    What was it when he said when he never told a lie in public? I Bet he would have loved like Trump.


  18. nathsays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:29 pm
    Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:25 pm

    You say you are a supporter of Albanese. But I never read you criticise Morrison once about his political behavior. Not once. You already posted atleast 2 positive comments today on Morrison.
    _____________
    I will have to up my anti-Morrison game then. Perhaps some memes or Scumo word play?

    Please do not change your behaviour because of me. I just made an observation based on your posts. I found it odd . That’s all.


  19. Bushfire Billsays:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:38 pm
    Ven, the “unaustralian” is a satirical site; a pretend newspaper.

    Oh I see. Got it. For a moment I thought he said it because of his past speeches. 🙂
    I thought you were commenting on my ABC link.

  20. To be pm.Morrison needed Turnbull to be dumped in a spill first then to beat Dutton…..along the way ensure Julie Bishop got very few votes guess what happened? To do that he was all things to all.people..

    .

  21. Labor will need to find another vote for the pandemic bill it seems. They will surely have known this was a possibility and have planned for this.

  22. BB, Sudmalis actually said what Crowe has reported of her, on the Drum tonight. It was said in a general discussion in relation to the dishonesty of the pm. In that context Sudmalis was obviously making up the almost biblical story of scomo’s self-doubt before his ascension to PM. I mean his knife work was masterful, and demonstrated further the adeptness he had shown with tony abbott, who also gave little squeals at Morrison after the knife went in.

  23. Taylormade @ #1521 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 10:38 pm

    Herald Sun 17/12

    The Andrew government’s pandemic laws are in crisis with Adem Somyurek set to sensationally defy his former party and block the controversial Bill.

    Somyurek on Wednesday night told the Herald Sun he would sensationally return to parliament to oppose the Bill, saying it gives “too much power to the government” and could lead to a “tyranny of rule by decree”.
    _____________________

    Because Adem Somyurek wants all the power to be with him. And the Liberals are happy to go along with that. Not to mention the Liberals are happy to support a notorious Labor branch stacker. Right got it. 😐

  24. Solo Monk
    @JJKALE2

    Children protesting climate change were told to get back to school. Women protesting sexual assault were told they were lucky not to get shot. A bunch of extremists protesting and crickets from our leader and his flunkies.

    Says everything.

  25. Counter-terrorism officials have charged a Victorian man who encouraged anti-lockdown protesters to bring firearms to State Parliament and execute Premier Daniel Andrews, and are continuing to investigate other alleged extremists involved in the Melbourne pandemic bill protests.

    The criminal charges are among several cases brought quietly by Victoria Police’s counter-terrorism command security investigation unit and come amid growing evidence that neo-Nazi extremists have infiltrated the Victorian anti-pandemic-law protest movement.

  26. Niki Savva once again describes SfM perfectly. He’s the ultimate poser.

    So far, Morrison has been able to talk his way out of most predicaments. But the tactic is starting to wear thin. He is starting to wear thin.

    On so many issues he’s like the circus performer trying to ride two horses at the same time. After finally dismounting he insists it went without a hitch, despite videos showing he had fallen off repeatedly. No matter. In keeping with his ever more preposterous photo frenzies, he does a tap dance in a red sequinned top hat and changes the story.

    After Emmanuel Macron accused him personally of lying, Morrison vowed he wouldn’t cop people sledging Australia. Asked again the other day about Macron’s charge, he responded by accusing the opposition leader of siding with China.

    “I see Anthony Albanese backed in the Chinese government and a number of others in having a crack at me as well,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-employs-risky-strategy-to-win-the-votes-of-disaffected-australians-20211117-p599mw.html

  27. Of course ‘neo-Nazi extremists have infiltrated the Victorian anti-pandemic-law protest movement’, they see this as their ideal opportunity to advance their cause by co-opting a bunch of easily brainwashed sheep.

  28. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 6:26 am
    Counter-terrorism officials have charged a Victorian man who encouraged anti-lockdown protesters to bring firearms to State Parliament and execute Premier Daniel Andrews, and are continuing to investigate other alleged extremists involved in the Melbourne pandemic bill protests.
    —————
    And this is the crowd whose political will Somyurek is now effectively enabling on the pandemic bill. It’s a really poor outcome from a policy perspective. Given Somyurek’s antipathy to the ALP, presumably it’s unlikely to be the case that the government can get his vote by making further amendments to the independent oversight and human rights regime in the bill, as recommended by the Ombudsman among others (which amendments I’d welcome).

    The ALP would be advised to recognise that the Somyurek situation is of its own making, and that unless it has effective internal governance the ripples of dysfunction will spread out and compromise its ability to govern.

    It would also be strongly advised (like every other polity in Australia) to get rid of group ticket voting in the Upper House- that now has a clutch of Liberal Democrats who would otherwise not otherwise be elected. In this instance it could have made the difference. The Andrews government has done zilch on this front.

    The Liberals will be delighted. They get a perceived win over Andrews. The fact that the current less democratic legislation which gives the unelected CHO broad powers rather than an elected, and accountable, officer, will be swept under the carpet. The inadequacies of the current legislation are irrelevant to the Liberals as are the serious illness and loss of life that have been caused by this pandemic. If the Liberals never govern in Victoria again it will be too soon.

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