Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Slight improvement in the Coalition’s voting intention numbers, but Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to track down.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 53-47, in from 54-46 three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 44% and up two on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 37% and up two to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has been cut from 48-34 to 46-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1524.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Who wins a negative no one is popular campaign? The incumbent.

    Bill Shorten was going to beat Tony Abbott and Shorten wasn’t popular. Abbott kept going negative and attacking Shorten. Shorten was smart enough to stay out of the firing line and let Abbott hang himself.

    I think Scott Morrison is more cunning then Abbott. And he may be able to bullshit himself out of this one. But it’s possible that his attacks could also end up being counter productive and it starts wearing thin with the public like they did with Abbott.

  2. Macron calling Morrison a liar, reinforcing the perception that the PM is a shifty piece of work, starting to negatively impact Scomo’s personal ratings.
    Encouraging for Albo that despite little media coverage, he is making some headway

  3. Tony Abbott basically didn’t have a primary vote under 43-44% in 2013 when he won the election that year.

    In 2013 people had clearly decided to put an end to R/G/R and decided Abbott would do.

    Beat it however you like these figures have not broken decisively for Albo. One side just falls over the line – you would have to say in the face of such hesitancy that will ultimately favour the Libs.

  4. On the discontinued thread I have made reference to the 4 week Coronial Inquest commencing in Melbourne tomorrow into St Basil’s Aged Care Home

    2 Federal Ministers should fall

    This will be confronting and brutal – given media report (which they have not done previously across 3 previous reports)

  5. Abbott frequently saw mediocre-at-best personal ratings while OL under Gillard (the latter’s popularity was also in the toilet) but there was no mistake that Abbott was winning because nobody not rusted-on believed that rule you pulled out of your arse earlier was a thing. References to the Coalition primary vote at the 2013 election are completely non-sequitur and just desperate spin.

  6. In fact Lars’s pathetic show is very reminiscent of commentary on this site back in that era. Lots of desperate twisting and spinning and “The PM is just doing the OL slowly” commentary.

    Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Coalition are out of this contest at all, there’s plenty of ways Morrison and the Government can get back on top and I’d say that, while Labor is probably the favourites at this point, it’s far from a lock. I definitely think prematurely declaring the election over for Labor is a huge mistake. That said, the counterpoints presented tonight have been a little on the pathetic side.

  7. Wat – in 2013 you had a party that decided to eat itself, ie the Labor Party. I looked at the final opinion poll in 2013 I think Abbott was -5 and so was Rudd.

    In 2021 – whatever the conjecture on her the Liberals are locked in behind ScoMo.

    Use all of the adjectives you like – there is just no enthusiasm for Albo and no positive agenda. Maybe that works, time will tell. Ultimately that’s the bet that Albo has made on how he wins.

  8. According to Kevin Bonham, the last poll in 2013 had Rudd on -25 and Abbot on -6. So a bit of a difference there.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/11/poll-roundup-albanese-is-still-less.html

    “All else being equal, if the 2PP is 50-50, the PM’s netsat is about seven points higher than the Opposition Leader’s, so a PM being more popular while trailing on 2PP isn’t uncommon at all.”

    The polls are tracking late 2018, so the Morrison is clearly betting he can do a repeat on another narrow path to victory.

    The only unknown is Newspoll’s methodology changes. They claim to have removed the bias to Labor from the last election. Are they also applying a moving average or something else to voting intention to smooth out the polling series?

  9. Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 11:07 pm

    If you cannot see the trend in the preferred PM and net sat numbers for the two party leaders over the past 18 months or so, then you really aren’t comfortable with numbers.

    But keep talking. You are very amusing at present 🙂

  10. The Coalition gets a 2 point PV improvement on a one-point shift in the PHON vote? I call a rounding error in their favor on that (unless the ‘Others’ cohort has also moved?). May as well still be 54/46.


  11. Victoriasays:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:35 pm
    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 44 (-2) Disapprove 52 (+2) #auspol

    Interesting numbers


  12. Victoriasays:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:36 pm
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-2) Albanese 38 (+4) #auspol

    Meaningless number unless someone is planning to topple Morrison

  13. The polls are tracking late 2018, so the Morrison is clearly betting he can do a repeat on another narrow path to victory.

    The only unknown is Newspoll’s methodology changes. They claim to have removed the bias to Labor from the last election. Are they also applying a moving average or something else to voting intention to smooth out the polling series?

    So true. Scott Morrison has now record to run on though, and this government will be 8 years old by the next election. So there are couple of differences with the 2019 campaign.

    They really don’t deserve to be re-elected. It will be another campaign full of lies and smear just to cling on to government.

    There legacy will be quite shit if they lose. Labor’s debt will only be fraction what the Liberals accumulated even before the pandemic. And they will have gone through 3 Prime Minsters in eight years heading to 2022. And for all the rhetoric about Rudd/Gillard years they have just done what they condemned Labor for doing. But of course when the Liberals do it its different just ask Newscorp.

  14. I don’t have an issue with predicting the Coalition winning. For all I know they can turn this around. And there are certainly some reasonable arguments for it. The problem I have is using faulty logic to get there because, if the prediction turns out to be correct, it’s often treated as though how they got there was also correct.


  15. Parramatta Moderatesays:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:50 pm
    So this Newspoll includes a fair bit of Morrison in campaign mode, yet his approval numbers and especially his PPM numbers seem to have taken a bit of a hit. That’s encouraging! Or is just a delayed reaction to the clusterf**k which was his overseas trip?

    The 12% “others” in the PV must be assumed to be breaking pretty solidly to the LNP, for the 2PP to be 53-47. Is that really a justifiable assumption?

    Is preferencing of ‘Orhers’ based on 2019 or real preference allocation?

  16. There are 2 reasons I feel ScoMo could be re-elected. The first is having a May election after a tough budget- voters always back the Libs on finances over ALP. The second is that in such unstable times people like stability and keeping the Libs in government will be seen by many as doing this?


  17. zoomstersays:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:53 pm
    nath

    Because the numbers they’re polling are statistically insignificant.

    I don’t think there’s some dark anti Clive conspiracy happening, though if there was Clive would probably enjoy it

    Is it possible nath influenced by anti-vaxx and anti-lockdown rallies for his support for higher UAP numbers?
    My query is only because nath was not critical of ‘noose’ at all from what I read. I am no implying nath supports those rallies. On the contrary I believe.

  18. Boerwar @ #949 Sunday, November 14th, 2021 – 6:27 pm

    Observer says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:00 pm

    Boor War

    Who else has a military presence in the South CHINA Sea, China’s trade route to the World?

    Noting that China is the economic powerhouse of the Globe – and increasing its economic might to the benefit of its citizens
    ==================================
    1. BiTJ always takes the comrades line.
    2. BiTJ stated both that I knew what was in Xi’s mind and that I did not know what was in Xi’s mind.
    3. I have never claimed to know what was in Xi’s mind.
    4. I have stated that the way to understand Xi is by his actions.
    5. I have no problem with yourself, BiTJ, A-E and any other bludger trying to explain WHY Xi behaves the way he does.
    6. The bottom line remains. It is not what Xi thinks. It is what Xi does. By his actions ye shall know him.

    1. No, I would like to see a rational discussion around China that you seem to be unable manage.

    2. No, but apparently my sarcasm went straight over your head.

    3. Your constant projections suggest you think you do.

    4. Such a depth of analysis. If you were a Liberal, you’d publish it as modelling.

  19. Loris says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 11:45 pm

    I’m worried about UAP. This Guardian article is a concern and who knows how that will play out at the next election. Could be around 5% or more of the population – some people just don’t like being told what to do.

    In bed with local terrorism, will they never learn!

  20. In my mind – the Libs trying to repeat 2019, down to the early Budget highlights the weak position the Government is in. They believe a Budget promising a surplus and framing Labor the way they did, won them the election.

    This is a remarkably different situation. It shows they think the only way a win is possible is to make the 22-23 Budget the reset and try to force Labor to play on their ground – which is, of course, the incumbent government’s prerogative.

    Morrison needs Labor to make mistake, and a big one. The risk in the 2019 redux model for the PM – is Labor hasn’t gifted them a clear contrast on clear household issues- which wasn’t the issue in 2019. So it requires them to manufacture a contrast. Will they try? Sure. Will the media push it in the absence of a real contrast? Of course, there’s no clicks in reporting the facts. Will it work? Who knows – but Albo and the Labor team have been much more effective at dodging Morrison’s increasingly desperate wedge attempts.

  21. Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 10:14 pm
    Latest Billington analysis…

    R(eff) in the Sydney “LGAs of concern” has now risen back to 1.27

    R(eff) of Greater Sydney as a whole is back to 1.19

    That blinking red light is getting brighter… wonder when the media will sit up and pay attention?

    Cud
    IMO, I think you should put the scary stuff on NSW away for the time being especially when Victoria numbers are bouncing in the range of 1000-1200.

  22. Labor wins the election comfortably

    1-the lib/Nat’s combined primary vote under 40%

    2-Labor primary vote higher than lib/Nat’s combined primary vote

    3-Labor primary vote within 7%
    Margin of the lib/Nat combined primary vote

  23. R(eff) of Greater Sydney as a whole is back to 1.19

    That blinking red light is getting brighter… wonder when the media will sit up and pay attention?

    1000+ daily cases in NSW is the threshold of interest.

  24. a r

    “1000+ daily cases in NSW is the threshold of interest.”

    I’m curious to know why you think this is the threshold of interest? After all the government is doing its best to manipulate the media into not caring about case numbers anymore.

  25. Ven

    I’ll add to that. I fear that Victoria has a natural disadvantage as far as covid goes.. climate? We were talking about this mid last year and I still have a gut feeling about this. In the same way that QLD had “gotten lucky” a surprising number of times.

  26. The Australian says:

    The Coalition has clawed back support among conservative voters, as the leadership contest between Scott Morrison and ­Anthony Albanese narrows.

    That’s all I can read off the page. The rest is for subscribers. But it implies that the 2% improvement in primary was recovered from parties to the right of the LNP. ON is down 1% (from 3% to 2%). Other is down 1% (13% to 12%, calculated from WB’s previous Newspoll post). So that might account for it.

    However, assuming an 80% Green and 10% ON preference flow* to Labor, you need half of the Other cohort to preference ALP and half to preference LNP to get the reported TPP of ALP 53/47 LNP. **

    * ON is only at 2% primary, so the calculation is not very sensitive to ON preference flows. It could be 20% preference flows to Labor and the TPP only changes to ALP 53.2/46.8 LNP, which is no meaningful change at all.

    ** It’s late. Calculations are risky.

  27. Cud Chewer @ #41 Sunday, November 14th, 2021 – 11:42 pm

    I’m curious to know why you think this is the threshold of interest? After all the government is doing its best to manipulate the media into not caring about case numbers anymore.

    It’s a change in the order of magnitude. Though also yes, there being no threshold of interest anymore due to the way the pandemic has been politicized is also possible.

  28. a r

    Will be interesting to see what will happen and if the government gets away with the whole “we aren’t counting cases any more” strategy.. I can only imagine the triage tents in the hospital carpark might be the point where the media suddenly sits up and pays attention.

  29. I’m seriously confused as to the complete lack of polling coming out of WA considering there are a lot of seats in play for Labor.
    Swan- (my home seat) is probably already gone given the fact only Labor & Greens are even campaigning.
    Pearce- Christian Porter running will lose the Libs the seat. Christian Porter not running will lose the Libs the seat bc this is swinging regardless.
    Hasluck- maybe Ken Wyatt just holds on? Would be close regardless.
    Tangney- Swing at state election was smaller than the rest; Morton might narrowly hold on.
    Moore- Swung a hell of a lot (20%+) at the S.E. A 9% reduction means Goodenough isn’t good enough.
    Libs will hold onto Curtin, Canning, Forrest, Durack & O’Connor and Labor will hold theirs, Cowan, Perth, Burt, Brand & Fremantle.

  30. Mark McGowan seems to have control of what’s happening in WA.
    If Morrison or Palmer turn up in the west it will add to the deteriorating regard for all things east/Liberal/Morrison/Palmer.
    The marketing bullshit artist from the east may have been advised to observe the existing quarantine conditions and stay away.
    The “next” PM of Australia sees no benefits by interfering the west.
    All the bellyaching about WA, Covid vaccinations and McGowan by the MSM and the bevy of liberal desperates is counterproductive.
    Morrison has just finished a giant suck-
    up to Victorians, the results of this “kiss a forklift” or “steer an electric vehicle” have not indicated any positive results yet.
    Barnaby kept out of the news during the Glasgow climate parade.
    The election will be based on a “Lollie scramble” of public money, fear of house prices falling, fear of maintaining superannuation concessions and the “hate of Labor procession” by the “dig a hole cartel”.
    The “yellow peril” tag will continue to be used by the”union jack” facemask mob appealing to the “inner bogan” just beneath the surface.
    Cronulla is the spiritual home of flag wavers!
    Perhaps the sewerage problem never left the Shire.
    Covid is yet to written out of the script!
    Achieving emissions reductions will not benefit from the amount of “bullshit” to be produced by Morrison and the liberal guru puppeteers between now and an election.
    Polling, the “castor oil” before an election!

  31. Morning all. Well done Mitch Marsh in the T20 final! I was pleasantly surprised.

    Cop26 sadly, predictably failed. Scomo and Angus Taylor had a lot to do with the failure. Adam Morton conveniently sums up the questions that must be asked of them and their fake “plan” now that they are supposed to be back home governing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/14/five-questions-the-morrison-government-must-answer-now-it-has-agreed-to-the-cop26-pact

  32. On the Newspoll all the movements are within MOE and without any reporting of any difference between ON, UAP and conservative Independents I can’t really tell what is going on. To me it is still steady as she sinks for the LNP Crime Gang.

    With both John Alexander standing down and Christian Porter rumored to be, the LNP internal polling can’t be great.

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