Sooner or later

Odds lengthen on an early election, John Alexander calls it a day in Bennelong, doubts over the passage of the government’s voter identification bill, and more.

A consensus has locked in over the past week behind the notion that the federal election will not be until May, with John Kehoe of the Financial Review reporting public servants have been told to cut short summer holiday plans to help prepare a pre-election budget in April. The government will then be able to “fight the poll on an expected economic bounce-back from COVID-19”.

Also:

• Liberal member John Alexander has announced he will not seek re-election in his Sydney seat of Bennelong, which he recovered for the Liberals in 2010 following John Howard’s historic defeat in 2007. The Sydney Morning Herald reports contenders for the preselection are likely to include Gisele Kapterian, a former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash and current executive at software company Salesforce, and City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung. Kapterian was mentioned as a possible challenger to Alexander’s preselection earlier in the year.

• The federal government seems to be struggling to get the numbers it will need to pass its voter identification bill through the Senate before the election. With One Nation for and Labor, the Greens and independent Senator Rex Patrick vehemently opposed, the swing votes in the Senate are Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff and independent Jacqui Lambie. While Griff supports the idea in principle, the Financial Review reports that Lambie and the Centre Alliance’s lower house member, Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, has criticised the short time frame and the government’s prioritisation of the matter over issues including the establishment a federal integrity commission. Independent MP Bob Katter added to the momentum against the measure when he declared it “blatantly racist” due to its disproportionate impact on indigenous voters.

• In the period between his drink driving misadventure a fortnight ago and announcement at the start of this week that he would bow out at the next election, Tim Smith’s Victorian state seat of Kew was the subject of a comprehensive poll by Redbridge Group which had Liberal on 39%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 12%, suggesting a close contest between Liberal and Labor at the final count to be determined by the unknown quantity of independent and small party preferences. However, the poll also recorded a 40.2% “very unfavourable” rating for state Labor, along with 44.9% for Smith and 49.5% for one of his backers, Tony Abbott. The poll was conducted November 4 to 7 from a sample of 920.

• The Liberals have confirmed candidates for two Hunter region seats that swung heavily against Labor in 2019. In Paterson, where the margin was cut from 10.7% to 5.0% in 2019, the candidate will be Brooke Vitnell, a family law solicitor and former ministerial staffer to Paul Fletcher and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Shortland will again be contested by Nell McGill, a commercial litigator at Sparke Helmore Lawyers, who cut the margin from 9.9% to 4.4% in 2019.

• It has come to my attention that US pollster Morning Consult conducts a weekly tracking poll of approval and disapproval for 13 world leaders including Scott Morrison, who has lately fallen into net negative territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Sooner or later”

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  1. “ Sprockets, If you need to understand what drives fuel prices I suggest an annual subscription to david woo unbound. $100USD – money well spent.”

    Soooo … facts do matter sometimes, L’arse?

    Let me guess: Labor should – must – be fact checked, but it’s a free kick for ScoMo and the Tories, when we they fib, flannel, bullshit or straight up lie … you’d agree, obviously, that with them anything goes and it usually does.

  2. Alpo says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:10 pm
    “On return to Government, Labor”… will be bloody busy fixing the complete mess left behind by the three most incompetent federal governments in living memory: the Suppository-of-all-wisdom’s, the Waffler’s, the Liar-from-the-Shire’s…
    _____________________________
    We need a Fuelwatch and maybe even a grocery watch too! Perhaps a internetdatawatch could be a modern update too?

  3. “Sprockets, If you need to understand what drives fuel prices I suggest an annual subscription to”.. blah, blah… Or save your money and simply blame the Morrison Liberal/Nationals/LNP federal Government… Blame it many times, inform as many people as possible, spread the word….
    —————
    P.S. You always learn something by watching Murdoch’s modus operandi.

  5. After another century or two, there will most likely be advances in technology to reverse what “climate change” might have occurred in the meantime (not proven to not be due to natural variation).
    ————————
    By “proven”, you mean you ‘don’t choose to believe’ what is accepted as fact by the overwhelming majority of experts in the field. Very different things. What proof would you need that a cancer is terminal? Death?

    In choosing to ignore their evidence, the rest of your statement has zero credibility. But for the sake of a robust blog of discussion – you are making a huge assumption that humans will be able to advance technology at all, let alone significantly, beyond 2100 in a climate warmed by 2-3C. You also ignore that whilst it may be possible to remove atmospheric gases that are warming the planet, humans may choose not to do so – just like they are choosing to not do the far easier thing of reducing emissions. And, you ignore that reversing climate change won’t reverse all the effects of climate change – many of them significant to human habitation.

  6. “We need a Fuelwatch”… No, you only need a ballot paper and marking ALP1, Greens2…. your local Coalition party last.

    It’s very simple, anyone can do it.

  7. David Woo had an entire podcast devoted recently to why oil prices had risen and would continue to rise over the next few years.

  10. “ Don’t the Australian public deserve to know Labor’s plans before the election?”

    No more than Australians deserved to know the Liberals plans at any of the last four elections.

    Australians obviously reward lies and liars, so Labor should treat with them accordingly.

  11. Liesl Von Trapp:
    “David Woo had an entire podcast devoted recently to why oil prices had risen and would continue to rise over the next few years.”

    Nah, it’s all ScoMo’s fault. He’s trying to take away my weekend!

  12. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:18 pm

    Lars, did Woo mention the dismemberment of the Australian refining industry by the Liberal government? Thought not.
    ___________
    I don’t mind you using the closure of refineries as political propaganda.

    But what I fear is that you are actually genuine, and others like you might want to actually subsidise refineries that wont be able to compete with Asian mega refineries, beginning again, the cycle of Australian protectionism, with all the stagnation anti competitiveness and expense that we incurred on ourselves decades ago.

  14. Well Labor made the tactical decision to run zero target.

    It cannot be surprised that the Liberals will proceed to campaign on what they say Labor’s agenda is – when Labor hasn’t articulated any of its own.

  17. Kakuru @ #913 Sunday, November 14th, 2021 – 8:22 pm

    Liesl Von Trapp:
    “David Woo had an entire podcast devoted recently to why oil prices had risen and would continue to rise over the next few years.”

    Nah, it’s all ScoMo’s fault. He’s trying to take away my weekend!

    Yeah, imagine if you can no longer afford to put petrol in your gas guzzler to tow the tinnie and go camping! 😆

  18. “Don’t the Australian public deserve to know Labor’s plans before the election?”…

    Hey, Lars, tell your mate ScuMo to call the election…. what is he waiting for? We want to know… the “Australian public deserve to know”…. After he calls the election… the Future of Australia will be revealed to you…. In the meantime, go here: https://www.alp.org.au/
    … and read….
    🙂

  20. nath, you are somewhat behind the times..

    Your Liberals have solved that pesky strategic inconvenience of over reliance on disrupted supply chains by a secret deal.

    Well done, Angus!

    ‘Oil over water: what is behind Angus Taylor’s $94 million US stockpile deal?

    With Australia’s precarious fuel reserves suddenly set for a boost, questions remain about Angus Taylor’s oil deal with the US.

    But the deal — which will see Australian oil stored in America’s national stockpile — has been brewing for some time. And despite claims that it is part of an effort to improve Australia’s fuel security, the oil will sit, unrefined, in reserves on the other side of the world.

    So what’s going on here?

    Crikey has confirmed that the oil is not being purchased from the US government, but from the private sector, with details currently commercial in confidence.

    The Taylor’s office would not say which company Australia was buying the oil from. It was also unable to say when the oil would be purchased.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/04/29/angus-taylor-oil-deal/

  21. So Scotty signed up to Cop26, which says we need to revisit and strengthen our 2030 targets, also we need to phase down coal…. so when is Scotty going to explain how he is going to do that?
    I am curious to see how he explains this to the coal communities.

  24. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:29 pm

    nath, you are somewhat behind the times..

    Your Liberals have solved that pesky strategic inconvenience of over reliance on disrupted supply chains by a secret deal.

    Well done, Angus
    ______________
    What’s the strategic reserve got to do with the Global fuel trade?

  26. Rivian, an EV truck maker who just listed on NASDAQ, have a market cap greater than General Motors.

    Must have missed this gem in Woo’s petrol podcast

  27. “Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:26 pm
    Well Labor made the tactical decision to run zero target.”….

    Gees, thankfully Labor is a “zero target”. Given the constant attacks against the ALP, Albo and the all the ALP members of Parliament in the pro-Liberal-party mainstream media (just about all of them), can you imagine the circus if Labor vas a “big target”?

    Lars, there is no “zero target” in Labor, as far as the demented media are concerned. If they have nothing to attack, they always make something up and attack that… But it looks like that a majority of Voters have had enough, and it was about time!

  28. Exactly nath, Angus could be just clipping the ticket on the ‘strategic reserve’ rather than dealing with Australians forking out $1.93 a litre today.

  30. “This guaranteed production payment will provide financial relief for the refineries in times of difficulty, to the tune of $2 billion by 2030”

    What does it matter if we import crude or fuel? If we are cut off we are cut off and can only rely on the reserve. If it was here.

    That’s 2 billion probably wasted so that Australians can say ‘we can make our own fuel’. Psuedo Nationalist bullshit.

    What’s next, the whole car thing probably. ‘Australia needs to make its own cars’. Here’s 10 billion Ford.

  32. When Labor came to government in late 2007 inflation was rampant (and the reasons are well detailed)

    Inflation saw the Cash Rate increased by the RBA during an election year then during an election campaign – both unprecedented

    Petrol prices have always been a lead factor in inflation readings and consequently interest rates (refer the First Global Oil Shock)

    The ability to “shop” bowser prices was in this context – a factor of inflation in 2007

    Then came capitalisation and the GFC (sub prime lending)

    And the Cash Rate remains at accommodating settings – 14 years later (now at the lowest level ever)

    With prices at the bowser inflationary

    Noting we need wages increases to exceed inflation for a sustainable economy

  33. “Henrysays:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:26 pm
    One gets the feeling that Lars and his ilk are shouting into the wind.”

    Everybody tries to make ends meet somehow, a job is a job after all…. This is an expensive country, let’s not forget.

  35. Just how barbaric is the US Justice System?
    Pity Assange if he gets extradited to the US….. he can look forward to life long torture.

    Ghislaine Maxwell….
    During lengthy jury selection procedures, international interest will focus on two key issues: first, the likelihood that Maxwell and her lawyers will offer up details of prominent names implicated in the case, including Prince Andrew’s, and second, the alleged poor state of the defendant’s health.

    Maxwell’s elder brother, Ian, a British businessman and thinktank founder, alleges his sister’s incarceration, under 24-hour surveillance in a cell measuring just 9ft by 6ft, amounts to excessive cruelty. She has slept on a concrete bed beside a toilet and has had no access to natural light.

    Maxwell also claims her eyesight is failing and her hair falling out, while her guards repeatedly wake her by shining a torch in her face. Prison officials say the scrutiny is designed to prevent Maxwell harming herself in the light of Epstein’s cell suicide two and a half years ago, but her lawyers argue this is merely the cover story for a persecution campaign.

  38. “sprocket_says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:36 pm
    Exactly nath, Angus could be just clipping the ticket on the ‘strategic reserve’ rather than dealing with Australians forking out $1.93 a litre today.”

    sprocket, don’t forget that this is the government that, in response to a serious pandemic, told Australians to cover their needs by taking money from their superannuation…. Are you seriously expecting that they would use the strategic reserve rather than asking Australians to just fork out $1.93 a litre?

  41. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 4:50 pm

    Xi did promise not to militarize the South China Sea island grabs.
    Xi militarized them.’

    ==========================================

    But you have no idea what the motivation and hence the goal of that action was. You just project your cultural views on it discounting all other possibilities.
    ====================================================
    The facts are straightforward:

    1. Xi did promise not to militarize the South China Sea island grabs.
    2. Xi militarized them.’

    I am happy for you to indulge your imaginings of what Xi’s motivation might have been.

  42. Bass Strait

    Simply, Australian prices are reflective of global prices whether it be crude, gas, fruit and vegetables

    Domestic supply chains are immaterial to what Australian households pay at the cash register

    Our prime fruit is exported – we paying the premium price of exported produce for the less than premium product which remains in Australia

    The monetary benefit accruing on the Balance Sheets of capitalism at the expense of household budgets (noting also the history of wages movements)

    Private capital has a major part to play in the health and prosperity of the citizens of the Nation

    But it is a two way street

    You do not defer exclusively to Capitalism

  43. Boor War

    Who else has a military presence in the South CHINA Sea, China’s trade route to the World?

    Noting that China is the economic powerhouse of the Globe – and increasing its economic might to the benefit of its citizens

  44. It cannot be surprised that the Liberals will proceed to campaign on what they say Labor’s agenda is

    Liberals lie and disinform. The murdochracy and Channels 7 and 9 act as distributors for their bullshit. The ABC is neutered. I would suggest reminding voters of the Government’s corruption and incompetence. Of a botched vaccination and quarantine program that resulted in 160,000 Covid cases and 1,000 deaths.

  46. Wat Tyler says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:05 pm
    Hey Lars, while we’re on the topic, what does your astrologer have to say about next year’s election?
    __________________________
    He said:”Lars, don’t engage with sanctimonious hipster smartarses on PB”

    Make of that what you will.

  49. Observer says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 9:00 pm

    Boor War

    Who else has a military presence in the South CHINA Sea, China’s trade route to the World?

    Noting that China is the economic powerhouse of the Globe – and increasing its economic might to the benefit of its citizens
    ==================================
    1. BiTJ always takes the comrades line.
    2. BiTJ stated both that I knew what was in Xi’s mind and that I did not know what was in Xi’s mind.
    3. I have never claimed to know what was in Xi’s mind.
    4. I have stated that the way to understand Xi is by his actions.
    5. I have no problem with yourself, BiTJ, A-E and any other bludger trying to explain WHY Xi behaves the way he does.
    6. The bottom line remains. It is not what Xi thinks. It is what Xi does. By his actions ye shall know him.

  50. That’s a first. I’ve never been called a hipster before. I’ve been called a smartarse plenty of times and sanctimonious a few times as well but never a hipster.

    EDIT: Actually, that’s a lie. I was called that once by somebody on Twitter years ago for my taste in music. Weirdly, the music wasn’t even hipster, just slightly different from what they liked.

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