Sooner or later

Odds lengthen on an early election, John Alexander calls it a day in Bennelong, doubts over the passage of the government’s voter identification bill, and more.

A consensus has locked in over the past week behind the notion that the federal election will not be until May, with John Kehoe of the Financial Review reporting public servants have been told to cut short summer holiday plans to help prepare a pre-election budget in April. The government will then be able to “fight the poll on an expected economic bounce-back from COVID-19”.

Also:

• Liberal member John Alexander has announced he will not seek re-election in his Sydney seat of Bennelong, which he recovered for the Liberals in 2010 following John Howard’s historic defeat in 2007. The Sydney Morning Herald reports contenders for the preselection are likely to include Gisele Kapterian, a former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash and current executive at software company Salesforce, and City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung. Kapterian was mentioned as a possible challenger to Alexander’s preselection earlier in the year.

• The federal government seems to be struggling to get the numbers it will need to pass its voter identification bill through the Senate before the election. With One Nation for and Labor, the Greens and independent Senator Rex Patrick vehemently opposed, the swing votes in the Senate are Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff and independent Jacqui Lambie. While Griff supports the idea in principle, the Financial Review reports that Lambie and the Centre Alliance’s lower house member, Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, has criticised the short time frame and the government’s prioritisation of the matter over issues including the establishment a federal integrity commission. Independent MP Bob Katter added to the momentum against the measure when he declared it “blatantly racist” due to its disproportionate impact on indigenous voters.

• In the period between his drink driving misadventure a fortnight ago and announcement at the start of this week that he would bow out at the next election, Tim Smith’s Victorian state seat of Kew was the subject of a comprehensive poll by Redbridge Group which had Liberal on 39%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 12%, suggesting a close contest between Liberal and Labor at the final count to be determined by the unknown quantity of independent and small party preferences. However, the poll also recorded a 40.2% “very unfavourable” rating for state Labor, along with 44.9% for Smith and 49.5% for one of his backers, Tony Abbott. The poll was conducted November 4 to 7 from a sample of 920.

• The Liberals have confirmed candidates for two Hunter region seats that swung heavily against Labor in 2019. In Paterson, where the margin was cut from 10.7% to 5.0% in 2019, the candidate will be Brooke Vitnell, a family law solicitor and former ministerial staffer to Paul Fletcher and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Shortland will again be contested by Nell McGill, a commercial litigator at Sparke Helmore Lawyers, who cut the margin from 9.9% to 4.4% in 2019.

• It has come to my attention that US pollster Morning Consult conducts a weekly tracking poll of approval and disapproval for 13 world leaders including Scott Morrison, who has lately fallen into net negative territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Sooner or later”

Comments Page 18 of 21
1 … 17 18 19 … 21

  4. Ita Buttrose on the warpath:

    ABC chair Ita Buttrose has accused the government of political interference over a decision to launch a Senate inquiry into the way it and SBS handle complaints from the public.

    Ms Buttrose will ask the government to suspend or terminate the inquiry, which was announced by Liberal senator Andrew Bragg, chair of the Senate standing committee on environment and communications, last Thursday night. She said the review of the ABC’s processes undermined the public broadcaster and was a…

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-interference-designed-to-intimidate-abc-s-ita-buttrose-lashes-government-inquiry-20211112-p598eo.html

    Story also on ABC website: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-14/abc-ita-buttrose-accuses-government-of-political-interference/100619454

  5. I am happy. Just bit the bullet and bought a new battery for my e-Bike. Replaces the 6 year old one that has really started to show its age. 🙁 Back on the bike today after a few weeks crook and not able to face exercise and has been really nice. 🙂 PB chugging on i see. Me, i really dont like the very obvious messaging of nooses at protests.

  6. From comments I am reading on Twitter I feel that the destructive behaviour of the LNP government has clothed all politicians with the same evil aura. This is not the only reason for the rise of indies but is contributing.

  7. I’m predicting 54-46 to the good guys for Newspoll, with a further drop in Morrison’s personal ratings.

    I would be stunned if we saw a move back to the Coalition after the events of the last few weeks.

  11. 51-49 to Labor: big shift back to the coal-ition on primary’s and Morrison on PPM.

    Nothing but clear skies and sunlight uplands for Bullshit Man. …

  14. Ah yes, the mastermind behind Boris Johnson’s miraculous come-from-ahead win against an extremely divided opposition who had been lingering in the polls forever. We should all be very frightened of this politics whisperer.

  15. One thing is for sure – we call expect a barrage of half-truths, lies, spin, smear and disinformation in coming months – from the Government (paid for by taxpayers), the Coalition parties, much of the mainstream media, the fat yellow slug and this Levido guy. I hope that Labor is prepared and has a counter-strategy. Last time they weren’t and they didn’t.

  22. Immediately after Moses Morrison’s miracle in May 2019, Latika Burke published a hagiography of Andrew Hurst, Isaac Levido’s head honcho in crime, in the SMH, headlined something along the lines “Sometimes the good guys can win”. …

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-architect-of-the-coalition-s-unlikely-victory-is-proof-nice-guys-can-win-in-politics-20190520-p51p6w.html

    Here is Latika really troweling on the love:

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/how-the-liberals-beat-labor-at-its-own-game-20190523-p51qki.html

    And here:

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/creative-actually-digi-kiwis-lift-the-lid-on-boris-johnson-s-video-masterstroke-20191216-p53kk6.html

    Hirst-Levido-Kiwi digi wunderkinds … lots of latika love all round. I mean who doesn’t love industrial scale lies and misdirection leading to the perpetuation of the worse governments thrown up by the Anglosphere since the end of WW2?

  23. What annoyed me about Morrison photo-bombing Bert Newton’s state funeral, replete with garish and obnoxious Aussie Flag mask, was that Newton and his wife were Labor.

    There is nothing sacred to a marketing man.

  24. Bushfire Bill says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 7:31 pm
    What annoyed me about Morrison photo-bombing Bert Newton’s state funeral, replete with garish and obnoxious Aussie Flag mask, was that Newton and his wife were Labor.

    There is nothing sacred to a marketing man.
    ______________________________
    How would you know about Patti’s thoughts on the matter? There has been nothing reported to this effect – are you a family friend?

  27. The fact is that the Liberal Party oppose mandatory vaccination

    This is the very same Party which has spent a fortune in advertising for people to get vaccinated

    And has bragged about the numbers vaccinated (noting the botched supply and roll out – and our young now not able to be vaccinated until 2022)

    And has given the advantage of vaccine supply to NSW upon the Delta mutation being introduced to that State

    And has promoted the Pentecostal with the glass jaw (and other Ministers) getting vaccinated – replete with Australian face mask (noting the wearing of a mask is also a source of protest)

    And provides vaccine to other Nations
    in our near vicinity (to great fanfare)

    So on the one hand go and get vaccinated and we implore you to do so

    But on the other hand don’t go and get vaccinated – and when you protest against vaccination (and don’t get vaccinated) don’t make threats including death threats against those who promote vaccination (and don’t give them any authority to respond to a Pandemic)

    What a contradictory mess

    Mind you the Liberals did not oppose the protest at the Shrine – only the venue of the protest being the Shrine

    And there is the word

    Liberals

  30. Obviously Barnaby’s bandits hold the whip hand here. And that suits Morrison just fine.

    Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target will be a live issue in next year’s federal election after the Coalition refused to revisit the goal despite signing the Glasgow Climate Pact, which requests nations come back with tougher pledges within 12 months.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne and Energy Minister Angus Taylor insisted on Sunday that Australia’s target of a 26 to 28 per cent commitment is “fixed” despite the COP26 climate conference ending with a pact calling on countries to make a more ambitious 2030 commitment by November next year.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-battleground-morrison-government-insists-2030-target-is-fixed-despite-glasgow-20211114-p598qr.html

  32. Why has Scott Morrison raised petrol prices so high? Is he punishing Australians?

    And lying saying that Labor had this policy at the last election, when secretly it was his plan all along.

    Stop it Mr Morrison!

  33. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 7:38 pm
    _________________________
    That’s little patti isn’t it not Patti Newtown in the photo?

    Sure Bert and Patti did appear in the It’s time ad – not sure how that’s proof that Patti was offended by the presence of the serving PM at her husband’s funeral , but perhaps Bushfire Bill knows something no one else does?

  34. “Nostradamus:
    Any intel on when the world is due to end?”

    The world will end when the Sun reaches the asymptotic red giant branch which is not expected for about another eight billion years.
    If you refer instead to the extinction of humanity, it is unlikely that catastrophic global warming will threaten humanity’s survival within the lifetime of anyone currently alive. After another century or two, there will most likely be advances in technology to reverse what “climate change” might have occurred in the meantime (not proven to not be due to natural variation).

  35. The simple strategy in the UK was to point to Labour needing to form a Coalition with the Scots to achieve a majority

    So Westminster being in the hands of the Scottish

    And that is a tactic from Australia – where they promote that a vote for Labor is a vote for a Greens government in Canberra

    Noting there is no focus on the part played by the National Party in dictating to the Liberal Party, which is again in focus courtesy of Glasgow (those pesky Scots again, hey?)

  37. I see a few predictions about the Newspoll reputed to drop tonight, and I am reminded that a large majority of Poll Bludgers, curiously for people who claim to follow the polls so closely, seem to think that 1 or 2 point movements in poll numbers mean something. Tonight’s Newspoll may well shift a point or two back to the government, or it might not, but either way it’s statistically pretty meaningless. You’d like to think that people who frequent this site would know this, but obviously that’s not the case, so I’ll restate the obvious: a single poll means fuck all. If there is a swing back towards the government, that will be determined across multiple polls over a few weeks and months, not in a single poll tonight.

  39. When petrol costs a lot more than diesel the oil companies are ripping off their customers, trying to recoup losses during the discount phase, although there hasn’t been such a phase in Sydney for a while.

  40. The world won’t end for another eight billion years? I think Morrison is counting on the great tribulation and the rapture occurring a fair while before that.

  42. On return to Government, Labor should promise to set up a website so consumers can see petrol prices and call it fuel watch!

  43. “it is unlikely that catastrophic global warming will threaten humanity’s survival within the lifetime of anyone currently alive. After another century or two, there will most likely be advances in technology to reverse what “climate change””…

    Please Nostra, at least read the memo before replying to a poster, there is no “advances in technology” nonsense, it’s: “We are at a peak of a natural wave of temperature change, the cooling trough is soon to start …. Three…. two…. one…. Get your mittens now!”

  46. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:06 pm
    Lars, why is the Morrison/Joyce government hiking the price of petrol so high?
    ______________________-
    Sprockets, If you need to understand what drives fuel prices I suggest an annual subscription to david woo unbound. $100USD – money well spent.

  47. ” when will Chris Bowen announce labor’s 2030 target?”

    He’ll take a serious target to COP27, to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, from 7-18 November 2022. For the first time in a decade, Australia won’t play a spoiler role.

  48. “On return to Government, Labor”… will be bloody busy fixing the complete mess left behind by the three most incompetent federal governments in living memory: the Suppository-of-all-wisdom’s, the Waffler’s, the Liar-from-the-Shire’s…

  49. why is the Morrison/Joyce government hiking the price of petrol so high?

    Easy – it’s part of his plan to promote electric cars and utes for the tradies!

  50. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, November 14, 2021 at 8:10 pm
    ” when will Chris Bowen announce labor’s 2030 target?”

    He’ll take a serious target to COP27, to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, from 7-18 November 2022. For the first time in a decade, Australia won’t play a spoiler role.
    ___________________________________
    So no target then? Don’t the Australian public deserve to know Labor’s plans before the election?

Comments Page 18 of 21
1 … 17 18 19 … 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *