Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 20
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  1. Another live (still) immature male or female Bower Bird just hopped (two feet hopping) across the verandah and disappeared into a Geebung.

  2. Chuckle.

    A mental health warning has been sent out to all fact-checkers in the country after Prime Minister and pathological liar Scott Morrison told another lie this morning, when he told radio host Neil Mitchel that he has never told a lie while holding office.

    This blatant lie about his previous lies, which also includes some other lies about whether he had lied, has left many fact-checkers in a state of mental anguish with some taking stress leave while others have been taken to seek treatment after being found in a state where they only seem to be able to scream, ‘Fuck him, just fuck, fuck… fuck off… ahhhh… hehehehehe’ on repeat.

    https://chaser.com.au/national/fact-checker-takes-stress-leave-after-morrison-claims-he-has-never-told-a-lie-before/

  3. poroti:

    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 3:49 pm

    [‘Mavis at 3:40 pm
    You must have done some awful things to Telstra in a previous life I’ve always had good service and disruptions have been super rare,touch wood.’]

    I’m glad you’ve had a good run with them but my experience has been just awful.

  4. No, it was a lazy, sneaky, greedy person. Like I said, probably one of Morrison’s ‘Quiet Australians’.

    Probably.

    BTW, “quiet” and “Morrison” don’t gel for me.

  7. Definition of a quiet Australian:
    A Quiet Australians is an Australian who zips their mouths to anything “Woke” and always votes LNP on election day

  8. lizzie @ #793 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 4:38 pm

    Itza

    If he exists, he beamed his magic in the wrong direction. This afternoon I found some military ribbons that Ken had mislaid. But no birth certificate. I’m running out of places to look. 🙁

    He’s probably put you on hold, for the difficult stuff, and the ribbons are like lovely soothing music. If only they played lovely soothing music. I think they play stuff to get you to hang up.

    (Sometimes you walk into a shop, and the music just makes you want to stay. That’s good business.)

  9. Bennelong race thrown open as John Alexander decides to leave politics

    Federal Liberal MP and former tennis champion John Alexander will not contest the next election in his seat of Bennelong.
    2 minutes ago (SMH)

  12. I’ve always wondered about people who insist on wearing or sporting their country’s flag while living in and moving about their country. It’s like wearing a name tag in your own house.
    I can understand people visiting abroad who want to show pride in their country, as I felt when I was overseas and people commented on my Australian accent. But why wave the flag in your own country? It’s really a way of trying to say “I’m more patriotic than you”. Well, if anyone thinks waving around symbols is all that there is to patriotism, then they are probably the scoundrels seeking their last refuge.
    I am an Australian patriot, in that I want to be proud of my country’s genuine achievements and seek to make it a better and fairer place to live. A true patriot also calls out their country’s shortcomings and should not be afraid to take another’s country’s side, if that country is being wronged.
    To take an extreme example, many Germans opposed to the Nazis and hoping for an Allied victory claimed they were acting out of genuinely patriotic motives. I think they were.

  13. The Liberal Party will call for candidates to contest the key Sydney seat of Bennelong amid fears it could lose the seat after former tennis champion John Alexander announced he would leave politics at the federal election.

    Mr Alexander ended months of speculation about his future by telling constituents on Friday afternoon he would not contest the election.

  15. There is a clip going around on social media of Anthony Albanese responding to a question from a journalist about the ALP’s alleged propensity for quotas (of women) and mandates. The journalist informs AA that he is from the Sydney Morning Herald, not the Murdoch press. Does anyone know who this dope is?

    A footnote to this is that it looks as though all the mainstream media intends to dig in behind Morrison and the LNP for the next election.

  16. But why wave the flag in your own country?

    As an Australian living in the USA for 18 years I did something like that when I returned. The quite large Australian flag I had been given on leaving for the US had never been used. (Flags are tricky things in the US.) But when I returned I hung it in my living room. I was home. It hung for 6 months until I took it down. The memory feels weird now.

  18. Two sportsmen so far nominated by their jurisdictions for Australian of the Year – Dylan Allcott (Vic) and Patty Mills (ACT) but thankfully , at least, more than for their sporting prowess.

  19. Oh well.. another day another Shire Liar policy failure….

    Australia’s only working carbon capture and storage project fails to meet target
    Chevron says it failed to meet Western Australia’s target of capturing at least 80% of the CO2 that would otherwise be released at its Gorgon LNG project ….

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/12/australias-only-working-carbon-capture-and-storage-project-fails-to-meet-target

    All part of the Plan that isn’t a plan

  20. Sometimes you walk into a shop, and the music just makes you want to stay. That’s good business.

    And sometimes it makes you want to transact your business as quickly as possible and get out, especially if it’s loud.

  25. BTW, “quiet” and “Morrison” don’t gel for me.

    Oh but it does. That is, everyone else must be quiet while Morrison speaks. 😐

  26. Sara
    @_sara_jade_
    ·
    2h
    #Scomo updated his Facebook cover photo 6 hours ago with Jen and the girls. It’s on and it’s gonna be a long election campaign… so sickly transparent.

  29. Wonderful news re JA. Keneally can show how popular she is by having a crack at Bennelong and the injustice meted out to Tu Le by the NSW alp for being uppity can be corrected !

  31. There are further questions about the integrity of Australia’s carbon credits scheme, with new analysis revealing millions of credits issued for reforestation are junk cuts.

    Data contained in a recent report by the Clean Energy Regulator has revealed more than 10 per cent of the areas included in projects that are intended to regenerate forests already had forests on them when they started.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/junk-credits-issued-for-australian-forests-that-already-exist/13628202

  33. The comparison between Morrison’s “look at me antics” and Daniel Andrew’s rather moving tribute to Bert Newton says it all really.

  35. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    2h
    Dear
    @craigmcmurtrie @abcnews
    You have been put in a difficult position for which you need to review your processes imo. The PM has taken to election campaigning daily, along with preselected (not elected) candidates, at events purporting to be press conferences for announcements

  37. Bludgers, some political news: John Alexander will retire at the next election, so the Liberals will need to preselect a new candidate for the seat of Bennelong. Apparently one of the frontrunners is Craig Chung, who you often see on the Drum as a panellist.
    Labor as yet haven’t preselected a candidate, as the margin is 7%, maybe they think they don’t have much of a chance? I guess they could ask Brian Owler to run again. In 2019, he got a 2.5% swing to him. Take away Alexander’s personal vote, and the next election could be interesting, maybe.

  40. This is another version of lying by Morrison.

    @devalara44
    ·
    1h
    why has the PM updated his Facebook Page with an old Xmas pic with the family?

  42. I live not far from Bennelong, which is basically Epping/Eastwood/Ryde in Sydney’s North.
    I’m in Berowra, where Labor is lucky if they get a primary vote over 20%. Only in the 2007 election did the ALP’s 2PP vote exceed 40% in Berowra. From 2010 onwards, the Lib 2PP vote has gone back up into the high 60s. Julian Lesser the current MP is very active, you have to acknowledge that.

  44. I can’t see Labor winning Bennelong. It needs a 7% swing, and it’s a seat where Labor actually got about a 3% swing towards it in 2019, making a big swing in 2022 even more unlikely.

    Does anyone know what’s happening in Banks? It needs a 6.3% swing, but the Libs got a 5% swing in 2019, so maybe a chance of that reversing. If I recall correctly, there were very big swings in working-class Riverwood booths against Labor. The sitting member, David Coleman, has been on indefinite leave for undisclosed personal reasons for nearly 2 years-although remarkably, he remains a minister. What’s going on with that? If he has some problems with his health, I wish him well, but surely he should leave the parliament if that’s the case. For 2 years the electors of Banks have had no member representing them!

  45. C@tmomma, I’d forget Bennelong, the rusted on Chinese and Korean business community there is a solid block for the Liberals. Maxine McKew’s win there in 2007 was one of those “once in a hundred years” type of events. I really doubt Labor will put too many resources in there, even with Alexander’s retirement taken into consideration.
    Where you are in Robertson, far greater prospect, your new Labor candidate, Dr Gordon Reid, very impressive, what I’ve seen of him, I think he’ll give Lucy Wicks a run for her money

  46. Parramatta Moderate: the ALP candidate for Banks is Zhi Soon, who is an Education Adviser and former diplomat.
    Albo did a meet and greet with him a couple of weeks ago.
    I’d assume Labor think they have a chance in Banks, because as you say, David Coleman is a fairly non-existent MP and there’s no guarantee he’ll run again, also the suburbs of Banks suffered a lot from the recent NSW government lockdowns – resentment lingering towards the Liberals over that?
    I would guess that Labor think Reid is a good chance too, they’ve preselected Sally Sitou. Margin in Reid for the Liberals is 3%

  47. I grew up in Banks, at that time it was an Anglo-Australian safe Labor electorate
    Now its a multicultural safe Liberal one…
    go figure…

  49. Wonderful news re JA. Keneally can show how popular she is by having a crack at Bennelong and the injustice meted out to Tu Le by the NSW alp for being uppity can be corrected !

    Already discussed Tu Le wasn’t even guaranteed even to win the pre-selection. You seem to be concerned that Le didn’t get selected but you don’t seem to care for others who maybe wanted to stand.

    The member for Fowler Chris Hayes had handpicked her because he felt entitled to decide who should be the next member. Which largely rubbed people in the NSW Labor party the wrong way.

    Oh, yeah, and Le moved in the electorate last year. Despite protesting to the media and leaving out this fact out when she complained. And finally you don’t seem to have a problem Kristina Keneally contesting Bennelong despite not living there which shows the hypocrisy of your argument.

  50. The @climatecouncil is savage on the government’s #netzero modelling, says it fails to meet its own goal of net zero emissions by 2050. The council’s Tim Baxter says, “it may as well have been written in crayon”.

    Never has the expression “putting out the rubbish on a Friday afternoon” been better exemplified.

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