Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. …….. Scott Morrison has just arrived at the state funeral of Bert … PM Scott Morrison just arrived with his trademark Australian flag mask….,

  2. a r says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 10:50 am
    Ven @ #558 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 9:43 am

    When I pointed this to Victoria yesterday after her projection that Biden will be remembered like FDR, there was silence om this blog.
    If Biden gets blamed for inflation then…the US deserves whatever crackpot they elect next, I guess.

    Crazy inflation is the inevitable result of QE Infinity. Wasn’t started by Biden. And nobody seemed to care particularly much during the run-up, so kind of hypocritical of them to act like they care now.

    Most of the inflation we’re now experiencing results from the liquidation of productive capacity rather than from monetary expansion. Covid-related business closures have crushed capacity in sector after sector, resulting in deep shortages. Price increases have reflected these shortages. This has been nowhere more apparent than in shipping, where disruptions to trade have smashed shipping services. Prices for shipping have soared, in some cases by a factor of 10 or 12 times. This will rebalance and prices will subside to some extent, but this will take time.

  3. I think they left the emissions reductions gap by 2050 in to distract people from realising that the modelling simply assumes an emissions reduction trajectory (for The Plan) to begin with. It does *not* model how The Plan reduces emissions.

  5. If you’re someone reporting on the modelling, and you say: “The Plan only gets us 80% of the way there”

    That is the same as saying: “The Plan gets us 80% of the way there”.

    What you should be saying is: “The modelling does not show that The Plan does anything to reduce emissions, because that was not even the question the modellers were asking”.

  7. After the visit of three Telstra technicians, four modems in the period of three months, my internet, and streaming services were interrupted every night. So yesterday I changed my provider to Optus. They provided a great service and touch wood, everything’s working tickety-boo, and to top it off, the internet speed is much faster. I’ll never return to Telstra again.

  8. As I have contributed here previously, access Vanguard and their appraisal titled “Inflation beyond the current spike”.

    It commences “Markets weren’t too surprised to see a run up in inflation in much of the world in 2021, aware that prices in a re-opening economy would be compared with the low year earlier prices that prevailed during COVID 19 lock-downs. But readings have been even hotter than forecast as supply in a range of goods and even in labor has failed to keep up with resurgent demand”

    It then begs “could inflation rates we’ve seen in 2021 persist in 2020 and beyond?”

    “It’s not our base case”

    Then goes to the detail of the answer to the question.

    And the reasons for the summary response of “It’s not our base case”

    This is the summary response by one of the Globe’s major Fund Manager houses.

    Their vested interest is performance of funds under management on behalf of their client base.

    So credible, unlike others with vested interest, including political.

    It is interesting that places other than Melbourne, Victoria, Australia have had lock-downs.

    Who would have guessed?

    And the Focus Groups must have informed Morrison – hence the responses we see from him.

    “I do not lie in public”

  10. Mavis at 3:40 pm
    You must have done some awful things to Telstra in a previous life 🙂 I’ve always had good service and disruptions have been super rare,touch wood.

  11. lizzie says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 12:12 pm
    Burgey

    I can’t stand watching/listening to Stan Grant and I can’t really work out why.
    —————-
    He can come over as taking himself very seriously, but in my view he’s a wonderful contemporary Australian thinker and writer. I’ve been reading “Talking to my Country.” It’s beautifully written and a book that every Australian, particularly non-indigenous Australians, would benefit from reading. He certainly doesn’t line up neatly on any simplistic right/left political divide.

  16. Bushfire Bill,
    I’m thinking Bubsy may have intentionally drifted downwards behind the kitchen cabinets. You said there were dead cockroaches there. He eats cockroach paste. I’m just joining the dots. 🙂

  17. Grant is insightful on some topics and is well-read and thoughtful on others.
    I find him annoying in the circumstance where he chairs a panel discussion.
    The less I hear from chairs the better.
    When Grant chairs, we hear an awful lot from Grant.
    It is a role conflict thing.

  19. This ‘Freedom From Government’ turn of phrase is a nasty Trumpian developement, playing to nasty Trumpians. If there was any doubt of Morrison’s modus operandi, not to mention ideology, it’s getting pretty clear. The voter fraud fallacy is just another pimple on the arse of it all.

    Yesterday, for example, I listened to ABC radio in the car late evening. The Bob Katter member for central Qld was on being interviewed by someone with the skills and thought processes of an adolescent about his constituency being locked out of pubs by Palaszczuk because they weren’t vaccinated. Long story short, everything was her fault.

    He prefixed his comments with ‘some people might find this hard to understand’. That much was on the money. The rest of it spun on voters didn’t like being told what to do by government. It wasn’t that they were against vaccines per se so much, but a stronger force in their way of living in society was not to do what they were told, especially by the likes of Palaszczuk, even when that meant they could die, but I don’t think they’d thought (or whatever they do) it through that far.

    And anyway, Palaszczuk didn’t care about their health (despite trying to encourage people to take steps to not get a potentially fatal disease) because there were no dialysis machines somewhere or other, or CAT scans either. So, if she’d gone about vaccination some other way (he didn’t elaborate) then they would have got vaccinated, possibly, of not probably. But certainly not if she told them to.

    Her mistake obviously was not telling them not to get vaccinated.

  20. Tony Abbott would not have turned up to a State funeral wearing an Australian flag mask rather than a plain, sober coloured one.

    Let’s not rewrite history. Tony Abbott was never good in terms of diplomacy in his tribute to the passing of Margaret Whitlam he said some along lines of ‘even though there was alot wrong with the Whitlam government’. He just couldn’t help himself. He just had to put that cheap shot in to score a political point even when it meant paying tribute to someone who passed away.

    Abbott’s tribute to Bob Hawke’s passing was nothing more then a partisan swipe.

    In a statement posted to Twitter, Abbott, Australia’s 28th prime minister, described Hawke as “Labor’s greatest prime minister”, but also as a leader who “went against the Labor grain as Labor’s more recent policy direction shows”.

    “You might almost say he had a Labor heart, but a Liberal head,” Abbott said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/pea-for-a-heart-tony-abbott-criticised-over-partisan-tribute-to-bob-hawke

  21. I saw that mask episode on twitter earlier today. My thoughts at the time were that either (1) Scott is in campaign mode 24/7, (oi, oi, oi), or that (2) it’s the only mask he owns because he’s in campaign mode 24/7. The thing is, he constantly moves on. Only the moment matters. Gas lighting comes naturally.

    Something I learned the hard way is that the three things you need to succeed are, repetition, repetition and repetition. So:
    * Scott lives in the now.
    * He dismisses the past and hides the future.
    * A man with no past has no future.
    * And that’s a problem for all of us.

  22. The !@!@ I get from Grant when I’ve listened to him is the many many quotes from books he has recently read. It can come across more about showing how well read he is than advancing whatever argument is being discussed. At times If you took out the quotes there wouldn’t be much said at all.

  23. Australia has the highest greenhouse gas emissions from coal power in the world on a per capita basis, nearly doubling those in China, according to a new analysis released at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/12/australia-shown-to-have-highest-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-coal-in-world-on-per-capita-basis

    BWut BWe should, from our superior position, lecture China on its poor performance, because we have The Plan, The Very Greatest Plan, strongly promoted by our great leader, who never lies.

  24. As I understand it, Catholic support for palliative care (which they admit is in need of improvement, which says it all actually) is based of the aversion to suicide, a mortal sin, per se confining the involved to an eternity of separation form the Deity (the One who loves unconditionally – sorry, that’s Dogs, not Gods). The premise for this position is that your life is not your life, but God’s life, He gave it to you, and it is not yours to take. Suicide is rejecting God’s gift of life.

    I think. That’s how I understood it more than half a century ago. And that’s a few minutes ago in Catholic Church time.

  26. From the ABC News site

    “Four lions at a Singapore wildlife park have tested positive for the coronavirus after coming into contact with infected zookeepers, and have symptoms including coughing and sneezing, officials said Wednesday.
    .,….
    “The infected big cats along with five others at the Night Safari park have been placed in isolation”

    Apparently (according to the ABC story) “they … have been placed in isolation”

    Really?? In a zoo?

  27. We had an Oncidium sp. orchid growing next to our letter box.
    It had produced a substantial flower spike, and had just started to flower.

    Today, some f**ker has removed and stolen the flower stalk.

    “What a bunch of bastards.”

  28. The Mad Monk was a different kettle of fish. He actually had some core beliefs, sure they were crazy but he would openly display his inner ‘mad monk’ not infrequently. Bullshitman would go straight for the lies rather than display any core beliefs that the ‘SfM personality’ would deem harmful electorally.

    I still think Tony Abbott stood for nothing. Abbott’s budget in 2014 had cuts in spending that he lied about during the 2013 election. But he then panicked when he went was down in the polls and started spending like a drunken sailor to hold on to the Prime Minstership. If it meant well surpassing Labor’s debt to stay in power then so be it. This is all while after hypocritically banging on about Labor’s debt.

    If bringing back knighthoods and giving the late Prince Philip a knighthood on Australia day counts. In terms of his views as monarchist means he stood for something. Then he did stand for something as Prime Minster I guess.

  29. Tony Abbott stood for nothing

    He stood for the British Queen, I remember one time after he was sacked he was in London and wanted to meet her, and she said no

  30. I don’t wish to speak ill of the dead and so I won’t.

    But really, of the ten or so people I have spoken to today, with me mentioning Bert Newton, about 3 had ever heard of him.

    It’s just like ScoMo to crash Newton’s funeral, photo-bombing it with that crass “Aussie Flag” mask. Morrison has no proprietary rights over the Australian flag. It’s not his property. I fear that by the time election day arrives the voters will be mightily sick of Scotty From Marketing’s ugly mug and that obnoxious face covering. A State funeral is not a circus tent.

    Sure, there are a few nutters here who are Trump fans, believing there’s too much government in this country. But judging by the very high compliance with both lockdown and vaccinaction rules, regulations and protocols, it’s obvious this country isn’t America, and its voters are pretty appreciative of how its government services and institutions have functioned smoothly so far, hence that co-operation.

    Running around trying to resurrect the socialist bogey, or even the communist one, is a sign of Morrison’s weakness, not his strength. That he felt it wise to wear a mask more reminiscent of something you’d find in an Easter Show sample bag is indicative of his desperation, not his confidence.

  32. I saw this presser by Morrison and thought how unusual his range of expressions was.

    Sara
    @_sara_jade_
    ·
    2m
    #Scomo releases modelling for 2050 net zero target emissions. BL teeth baring aggression, smirking, smug , arrogant superior smartarse, eye-blocks. Angus detects lies nose swipe. Face cover when speaking of Dan Andrews, liar. Fake reply to CC qu downturned mouth unhappy, angry.

  35. BB

    I had never seen Newton because I didn’t watch commercial TV for years. I think he’s more a Melbourne personality, perhaps.

  37. Does anyone think any of our current politicians are narcissists?
    I use that word carefully because I don’t know if its something you can get in trouble for suggesting?

  38. So Morrison wore the stupid ass mask to the Newton funeral but not for the press conference? Also, is there even a mask mandate in Melbourne anymore?

  41. The point about Morrison is that there is no “there” there. For Scott it’s caring that causes problems, rather than caring is what reveals them. His solution is simple when put like that. Empty man. Empty promises. Simply empty. But today his branding solidified. LIAR is the word that I hope becomes his albatross.

    (I’ve not read the story about mariners and albatrosses. Apologies if the metaphor missed.)

  43. A ‘Quiet Australian’, most likely.

    I wouldn’t mind so much if I had had a chance to see it and enjoy it myself… Try again next year?

    I get the “waste not, want not” theory of urban harvesting (e.g. an abundance of mangoes) – but this wasn’t one of them.

  44. Itza

    If he exists, he beamed his magic in the wrong direction. This afternoon I found some military ribbons that Ken had mislaid. But no birth certificate. I’m running out of places to look. 🙁

  45. Late Riser @ #790 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 4:36 pm

    The point about Morrison is that there is no “there” there. For Scott it’s caring that causes problems, rather than caring is what reveals them. His solution is simple when put like that. Empty man. Empty promises. Simply empty. But today his branding solidified. LIAR is the word that I hope becomes his albatross.

    (I’ve not read the story about mariners and albatrosses. Apologies if the metaphor missed.)

    Here you go 🙂

    https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43997/the-rime-of-the-ancient-mariner-text-of-1834

    I was just thinking about Morrison the other day when I read it again. How he is the albatross around the neck of the nation.

  48. Jaeger @ #792 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 4:37 pm

    A ‘Quiet Australian’, most likely.

    I wouldn’t mind so much if I had had a chance to see it and enjoy it myself… Try again next year?

    I get the “waste not, want not” theory of urban harvesting (e.g. an abundance of mangoes) – but this wasn’t one of them.

    No, it was a lazy, sneaky, greedy person. Like I said, probably one of Morrison’s ‘Quiet Australians’.

  49. lizzie @ #784 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 4:29 pm

    BB

    I had never seen Newton because I didn’t watch commercial TV for years. I think he’s more a Melbourne personality, perhaps.

    My main memories of him were as ‘side kick’, which sounds a bit pejorative, but really a role easily underestimated, to Graham Kennedy and Don Lane. I saw him once live in Sydney as the Crazy Bird Man in The Producers. He was good, but I suspect her was better on TV than stage, in terms of personality size. I don’t remember him ever being anything other than a smiling nice good decent person.

  50. And you can bet dollars to diamonds that Scott Morrison will call the election at the absolute last minute so that Anthony Albanese cannot be given an equal platform to him. Only for so long as he absolutely has to.

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