This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Interesting that Morrison is playing the ‘we won’t force anyone to do anything’ theme when from my reading today the Indue Card and the proposed Voter ID legislation not to mention the use of proposed legislation to make us all be nice to religious people or the poor folk who have no say in being screwed over by Robodebt , are major iterations of Government Force.
Kakuru says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 5:11 pm
“Singapore to start charging Covid patients who are ‘unvaccinated by choice”
It’s a fantastic idea. Similarly, in the US, health insurance providers are considering charging higher premiums for non-vaccinated policy holders.
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But, but, but… why not charge higher premiums or full hospital costs for smokers, for recreational drug users, for obese people, for old people, for people with ‘bad’ genes…
Good to see our resident warmonger ‘on form’.
You’re done with PJK?
OK. fuck off out of the Labor Party then. And please take Sir Charles Marles and his little posse of Grouper Wolverine wing nuts with you.
Peter Dutton probably could use someone to had out how to votes for him. A road trip is in order cranky C@t.
C@tmomma at 5:01 pm
The point is they have moved in that direction. It may well have been prompted by the building company and the deep shit it is in but it is happening.
I’d think doing so would be seem as excellent “capitalism” . After all being too big to fail means “the market” isn’t there to ‘discipline’ you. You can let let or be allowed to have inefficiencies, poor practices or sail closer to the wind than is prudent as you are “too big to fail” .Safe in the knowledge you will be bailed out by the taxpayers.
Katie Allen backpedalling on her support for “the government” over emission standards.
“I’m not in government, I’m not the minister.”
She must be in trouble in her electorate.
There’s been a bit too much ripe language around here lately. It’s not big or clever.
Boerwar,
The issue will be health insurance for the non-vaccinated. Smokers pay higher life insurance premiums because their risk of death is higher than non smokers. Males typically pay higher Premiums than females.
So, excluding non Vaxxed will be a pretty easy business decision for the Insurers if you look at the stats of those that get admitted with Covid and their vaccination status.
One for the ‘Wolverines” . (Lordy that name is max-LOL juvenile)
lizzie says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 5:04 pm
I was never a great fan of Keating PM, as he was too far to the right for me. However, we do need more voices other than the parroted slogans of the current government.
______________________
While Keating was of the Right and certainly proved this as Treasurer. Any objective analysis of his Prime Ministership would have to conclude that he pursued a Left Wing social and cultural agenda. And a more traditionally Leftist approach to Foreign policy.
Native Title, The Republic, The Asian Century, Creative Nation, The Redfern Speech.
We have not seen his like since. I’m hoping Albo will take some inspiration from this.
Lurker
Yes, I was basically judging him as Treasurer. A bit unfair, I know.
Daniel Andrews is the only Labor leader of the last 25 yrs that matches Keating for political talent.
They both have/had the skill to articulate with confidence and crush their opponents confidence.
lizzie @ #2648 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 5:16 pm
Pray harder, lizzie! 😆
Look I may need to pray to St Antony myself. I’ve lost a referral for a CAT scan and I don’t really feel like going back to my GP for another one. 😀
poroti @ #2652 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 5:23 pm
I can definitely see it from that perspective too. I wasn’t trying to say Capitalism in the West was blemish-free. In that sense China is, I guess, a capitalist society. With special characteristics. 😉
If you want to see a snarky comment, who better to refer to than the Potato.
Oh dear. Someone had the audacity to question St Paul of the Labor Party. I forgot, it is verboten! 😆
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 5:46 pm
Daniel Andrews is the only Labor leader of the last 25 yrs that matches Keating for political talent.
They both have/had the skill to articulate with confidence and crush their opponents confidence.
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Run of the mill Labor Premier. Has done some very good things, but isn’t Paul Keating’s shoelaces.
And for the information of the keeper of the flame in the cathedral to St Paul, no I don’t agree with Peter Dutton that Paul Keating talked down Australia today.
I do think Paul Keating was too forgiving of the Chinese, however. Different thing altogether.
Dutton might want to save those type of smears until he’s had a go at leading the country as PM, then we can compare.
Keating could sue Dutton
This is quite a funny story (for The Global Times):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238564.shtml
“ Keating could sue Dutton”
Fashionable.
When it comes to Covid and borders, comrades Xi and McGowan are on the same page, more or less:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238548.shtml
Former prime minister Paul Keating has said Taiwan is not a vital Australian interest and has urged the nation to avoid being drawn into any military engagement with China over the island.
In his first appearance at the National Press Club in almost 26 years, Mr Keating delivered a colourful performance in which he declared that Australia had “lost its way” and was “at odds with its geography”.
He called British Prime Minister Boris Johnson an “old coconut head”, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age journalists “ning nongs” and said Australia’s plan to acquire eight nuclear submarines to help contain China was like “throwing a handful of toothpicks at the mountain”.
Mr Keating repeated his criticisms of the Labor Party, singling out foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong, for not standing up to the Coalition’s policies which have infuriated Beijing.
He also took aim at the “spooks” in Australia’s national security agencies for Australia’s foreign policy towards China, singling out Office of National Intelligence director-general Andrew Shearer.
Those with a mortgage, fasten your seat belts. You’re in for a bumpy ride.
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
The RBA put out its Statement on Monetary Policy 5 days ago.
It is obsolete.
Never has a statement from the RBA been so out of date so quickly.
On my figuring, it needs to hike 250-300bps over the next 12 -24 months as inflation spikes to levels not seen in 15 years.
When the highpoint is the host, Boris Johnson, telling the world how “heroic” was ScoMo’s effort, it’s all downhill from there.
We have to be thankful some days. Europe is getting squeezed mightily by Russia via Gazprom. Paying massive amounts to stay warm this winter.
‘Bushfire Bill says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:06 pm
There is no doubt about it. COP 26 is a catastrophe.
When the highpoint is the host, Boris Johnson, telling the world how “heroic” was ScoMo’s effort, it’s all downhill from there.’
….
————————————–
Where COPs are held matters. The leader of the country hosting matters. Part of the COP26 tragedy is that Britain had turned itself into an offshore island with a leader who has no gravitas, no integrity and who has spent much of his adult life putting people in other countries down.
Timbo
“Andrew_Earlwood – yep fun times in the early 70’s cold war. Regarding the stealth of SSNs, I was not a Sonar man but I knew one (who was prone to exaggerate) brag that they could hear the steam turbines whistling away at over 200 km away in the right conditions.
My only recollection of SSNs was that we were able to sneak up on them on a few occasions and they appeared to not detect us – a big blind spot at the stern.”
Thanks for your comments and informed perspective. (An uncle of mine served on RAN Oberons during the Vietnam War).
The stealth of all subs, but especially SSNs, improved greatly around the time of the Collins Class build in the 1990s, and before that in the 1980s for US and UK subs. This was when they learnt to build sound isolated motors and reactors in the hull. The SSNs machinery made the most noise, so they got the most benefit from the improved isolation. Impellers have continued the trend. SSNs are still noisier than conventional subs in shallow water, but the difference between the two has reduced, as has the overall noise level.
Sonars now have digital signal processing that is quite remarkable. In open ocean a western sub below the thermocline using a towed array can hear noisy ships many 100s of km away. Conversely running silently modern subs are now quieter than background ocean noise such as whales.
Whales have been detected communicating with each other across ocean basins up to 4000 miles (6400km) apart, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if subs can now do similar things.
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2005/02/secrets-whales-long-distance-songs-are-unveiled
C@tmomma says
But what was worst of all was that Paul Keating had the audacity to falsely equate what the Chinese are doing and have done to the Uigher Muslims, to what the Indians are doing to Kashmiri Muslims! Not that I’ve seen evidence of, Paul. Not to mention the fact that, if India were so intent on malign actions towards its Muslim population, as China is, then why is it the case that the Muslim population of India is on track to become the largest religious demographic in that country? And where are the Muslim Concentration Camps in India?
Nope, I’m done with Paul Keating. He has become too firmly embedded up China’s clacker to be able to see the wood for the trees. And it breaks my heart to say it.
_________________________________________________________
If that’s what Paul Keating said, I too am distressed. I think Keating was a good prime minister, even great in his recognition of native title and addressing the crime of the stolen generations, not to mention his push to make Australia a republic.
But he does have an unfortunate fascination with dictators. For years he seemed to be quite enamoured of Indonesia’s ruler, Suharto, who had governed the country since the bloody (very bloody) coup of 1965. In that fascination Keating, along with some other Labor prime ministers, was quite insensitive to the oppression of East Timor and its struggle for independence.
I think some Labor leaders tended to see Third World strongmen such as Suharto and the Chinese communist party bosses, as modernisers throwing off western imperialism. A lot of truth there of course.
But that shouldn’t blind anyone to the shortcomings of such regimes. You can’t keep pointing to their past, or even present-day, achievements as reasons to ignore human rights abuses.
Keating’s dismissal of China’s treatment of Uighurs by comparing it to India’s treatment of its Muslim minority, is a classic case of deflection with “look over there”.
Lurker at 6:08 pm
The Europeans put their own nuts in the vice and turned it. With high demand it’s first in best dressed as many EU buyers went in for very short term contracts rather than long term ones. No doubt on part due to concerns about US pressure re Russian gas in to Europe. Apparently the US hoped to get US’s fracking expensive fracked gas into Europe. Then of course there was Nord Stream which would have been up and running yonks back if it were not for US pressure.
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:18 pm
But he does have an unfortunate fascination with dictators. For years he seemed to be quite enamoured of Indonesia’s ruler, Suharto, who had governed the country since the bloody (very bloody) coup of 1965. In that fascination Keating, along with some other Labor prime ministers, was quite insensitive to the oppression of East Timor and its struggle for independence.
_______________
It had nothing to do with being enamored. It was all about charting a different course in foreign policy than just trotting along behind the United States.
Both Keating and Turnbull recognised that Australia’s best interests lay in having the closest relationship possible with Indonesia. Australia pressuring Indonesia on East Timor would have had led to a strained relationship and not advanced East Timorese independence one iota. It had to be accepted by Indonesia firstly, which it ultimately was.
Resident regal legal eagles.There could be any number of laws or regulations that may have been broken but how does it come under corruption ? Cops selling pics to media ?
poroti,
Possibly due to police involvement…
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/dani-laidley-disappointed-after-police-officers-share-photo-of-her-at-races-20211109-p597gp.html
It’s not really what he said. The question he was asked was whether Australia should stay silent about human rights abuses, and he said WTTE “Absolutely not”. The point he was making was that we seem to be silent about human rights abuses in allied countries but vocal about abuses in “enemies” (scare quotes his). He didn’t say anything that should lead to thinking he equated the Uighurs with Kashmir.
For mine, I think he should give up public forums such as that. His mind is still sharp but the link to verbalisation is on the way out. He should stick to writing.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #2679 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 6:18 pm
Lurker says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:24 pm
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:18 pm
But he does have an unfortunate fascination with dictators. For years he seemed to be quite enamoured of Indonesia’s ruler, Suharto, who had governed the country since the bloody (very bloody) coup of 1965. In that fascination Keating, along with some other Labor prime ministers, was quite insensitive to the oppression of East Timor and its struggle for independence.
_______________
It had nothing to do with being enamored. It was all about charting a different course in foreign policy than just trotting along behind the United States.
Both Keating and Turnbull recognised that Australia’s best interests lay in having the closest relationship possible with Indonesia. Australia pressuring Indonesia on East Timor would have had led to a strained relationship and not advanced East Timorese independence one iota. It had to be accepted by Indonesia firstly, which it ultimately was.
________________________________________________________
That is absolute nonsense Lurker. The United States was just as accepting of East Timor’s forcible incorporation into Indonesia as were successive Australian governments. It was a case of modern-day appeasement of an aggressive dictatorship. Nothing about an independent foreign policy there.
Australia was unable by itself to liberate East Timor, but it could have at least spoken up for it. Just as we and the United States spoke up for the independence of the Baltic states from Soviet Russia.
As for Indonesia “ultimately accepting” East Timor’s independence, it only did so because it was forced to. It finally got to the point where international pressure, UN condemnation and East Timorese resistance proved too much.
Even then, BTW, Paul Keating was criticising people for condemning Indonesia.
It’s 46 years tomorrow.
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:04 pm
Those with a mortgage, fasten your seat belts. You’re in for a bumpy ride.
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
The RBA put out its Statement on Monetary Policy 5 days ago.
It is obsolete.
Never has a statement from the RBA been so out of date so quickly.
On my figuring, it needs to hike 250-300bps over the next 12 -24 months as inflation spikes to levels not seen in 15 years.
I have been trying to get building trades for a few of my clients… when contacted they all laugh..
“thanks for calling mate, never ever been this busy, stopped taking new work 3 months ago.. full up till April”…. What with no OS holidays .. the well to do are renovating like never before… prices through the roof!!
Dutton is such a thin skinned spud.
Keating tries to put forward a more nuanced view of China, which is difficult in the current environment which is basically “China bad” is aired in our media 24/7.
I do think he is too pro China for my liking, but also I do agree with his views on the US.
China may well be on a more threatening path, but the US is also on a downwards spiral, I mean you literally have Americans trying to destroy democracy, and they have come close, and I can see them eventually succeeding, especially when some of these politicians should be in jail as they have committed sedition.
Thanks Socrates
Yes I’d assumed a closing of the stealth properties.
I was aware of the improvements in propeller design to reduce cavitation – the US came to the party to help the Collins class if I remember correctly.
Anechoic tiles of course must also make improvements.
All the poor old O boats had was supposed radar absorbing paint! I’m sure that would have really made a difference! The other thing the O boats had of course was their incredible ability to remain stealthy at top speed – primarily because they couldn’t get out of their own way, they were so slow.
Still an SSN at speed would make a hell of a racket even now with the turbulence. They move a lot faster when they want to – much much faster than the published specs would suggest.
Sceptic @ #2688 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 6:58 pm
He’s a new potato – thin-skinned and white.
I think the ALP are going to have to take effective measures to publicly distance themselves from Keating, so his pro-CCP views are not attributed to the parliamentary ALP of today by busy voters not following the nuance. The ALP certainly should not be inviting him to the campaign launch, his pro-CCP stuff last time in an interview at the conference probably undermined the ALP`s election chances, making sure that it is publicly known that he is not being invited over his differences with the ALP over policy for dealing with the CCP.
”Dutton might want to save those type of smears until he’s had a go at leading the country as PM, then we can compare.”
Hopefully we never get the chance to compare…
I agree with Lurker’s comments about Paul Keating.
However it might be time for PJK to gracefully give up public commentary? Cant see how it helps the ALP?
First there was the ringing endorsement of Keneally over Tu Le now writing off Taiwan?
An unabashed fan of PJK here..
His central premise, that Australia is an Asian country has not changed in 30 years – and we need to work on accomodation, not yearn for the Big White Bwana.
And suspect his central premise will hold for another 300 years.
For example, saying that we should have spent 25 years training the Indonesian military in our colleges, rather than pissing away our sovereignty in Afghanistan and the Middle East is the type of national interest thinking long ago lost – with Deputy Sheriff JWH to blame.
Tom,
I think Labor says fuck off to Greens shills like you.
”China may well be on a more threatening path…”
Quite possibly. Populist bellicosity won’t help, nor will new submarines possibly coming in 20 years’ time. I doubt that a reprising of our role as a junior partner in empire will be much help.
The Labor Party is a broad church, and honours it’s former leaders.
GG, thanks for the Kouk quote.
Whatever happened to Steve Keen? Remember he had views about property/debt/ interest rates?