A matter of time

An early federal election either likely or not likely, depending on which papers you read.

Writing in InQueensland, press gallery veteran Dennis Atkins lays out the case for a November 27 election, observing that the imminent passage of technical electoral law legislation will “put the final duck in place for Morrison to call an election from the next weekend, with an announcement on either Saturday, October 23 or the following day”. With New South Wales’ super Saturday of state by-elections sure to be set for December 4, this would be the only feasible date for an election this year, at a time when “the balance of risk tilts further and further towards a poll in 2021” – at least in Atkins’ assessment.

Conversely, James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reckons the by-elections have “dramatically shrank (sic) the chances of an early federal election”. Unspecified “insiders” point to the risks of “election fatigue”, together with the hope that the government’s stocks might be boosted by the opening of national borders early next year and summer weather keeping case numbers within acceptable limits.

Other news:

• As noted in the post below, Andrew Constance will resign from his state seat of Bega to contest preselection for the corresponding federal seat of Gilmore, which Fiona Phillips gained for Labor in 2019 by a 2.6% margin after a 3.3% swing against the trend. Constance is particularly helpful for the Liberals in this seat due to the sympathetic media attention he received after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the 2019/20 bushfires, which devolved into a public relations disaster for Scott Morrison. However, he will first have to face a local preselection ballot, which the state party is loath to deny its members after imposing Warren Mundine on them in 2019, only for him to lose the seat. He has a rival contender lined up in Paul Ell, an associate with law firm RMB Lawyers. The Guardian reports Ell has “strong support of moderates in the branch”, such that “some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected”.

• There has been much speculation that Gladys Berejiklian could line up as the Liberal candidate for Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall in 2019. However, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a consensus that this will not be feasible until the Independent Commission Against Corruption brings down the findings of investigation into her, presumably under the assumption that such findings would be favourable, which it is not likely to do for several months. The Daily Telegraph reports the preselection front-runner is Jane Buncle, a Manly barrister and factional moderate who is “understood to believe climate change is real”, although a number of others are named as potentially competitive starters.

• The West Australian reports Liberal MP Melissa Price had no trouble seeing off a preselection challenge for her seat of Durack from Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard, winning the party ballot by 47 votes to three.

• Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and Left faction convener, has been officially confirmed to fill the South Australian Labor Senate vacancy caused by the death of Alex Gallacher on August 29.

• The Age/Herald have published Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by state from their regular monthly Resolve Strategic polling. This might have been interesting if they had included results from the smaller states, but they are in fact only provided for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, breakdowns for which are already provided in the regular monthly release.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,582 comments on “A matter of time”

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  1. Boerwar at 6:41 pm
    After recently seeing several items from several different countries highlighting long covid I did wonder why it seems ‘invisible’ here. Perhaps now that NSW+Vic have produced very large numbers of covid cases we’ll start to hear more about it . Although probably not until the media lizards move on from selling us Freedom Day trinkets.

  4. “Another recent UK study showed that more than half of patients with covid-19 had long covid symptoms three months after discharge from hospital, with worse outcomes among those younger than 50, women, and those with higher pre-covid fitness levels.”

    That should do the economy lots of good…

  6. I can happily say that I have never tasted a beer that I liked.

    They all taste like piss.

    I recall having someone special who whilst travelling with me in the UK decided to try me out on all the local brews.

    Yuk.. Yuk.. Yuk.. Yuk.. Yuk… 20 times over.. yuk.

  11. Cud Chewer says Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:09 pm

    I can happily say that I have never tasted a beer that I liked.

    They all taste like piss.

    I can happily say that I have never tasted piss, at least not in my memory (I think things might have been different in vitro). So, I have no idea if what you claim is true.

    Beers do certainly vary in taste, so maybe the same can be said for urine (mine certainly has a different odour after eating asparagus).

  13. Luzzie

    Yes. I continue to be proud of the sense of my fellow Australians. That vaccination rate says a lot of where would be if we had supply earlier.

  14. ”
    Lurkersays:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:53 pm
    Ven says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:50 pm

    Are you now so assured of Federal LNP win in next election that Albanese will have hard time winning his seat?
    __________________
    I think Albo will win by +10 seats. So no, again you mistake a light hearted comment for something it wasn’t. It went over your head again didn’t it?
    ”

    How can ordinary people like me differentiate joke post and serious post of you?

  17. @JoshButler tweets

    Craig Kelly and the United Australia Party have “joined” with Reignite Democracy (major anti-lockdown group organising protests in Melbourne)

    If you had any doubts about what the UAP platform will be at the next election

  20. Hahn Premium Light, in a bottle. Cheers. 🙂

    –––––––––––

    Australia is completely unprepared for most everything these days. Why would Long Covid be any different?

  21. Ven says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:23 pm

    How can ordinary people like me differentiate joke post and serious post of you?
    ___________________
    I don’t know. I’m sorry you can’t distinguish between a light hearted comment and a serious political speculation. But it’s not my problem.

  22. Went to the launch of a new range Hahn beer in the mid-90’s at the NT Parliament House. Ended up in the Chief Minister’s Office and got poured out of there about 2 am. The BDM was stunning. Dr Hahn was a good guy.

  23. Looks like Labor has a solution to deal with branch stacking. Get IBAC to sort it out.

    Greens and Liberals will try and twist it, but they will be left with branch stacking problems. Labor won’t.

  25. Reason why Morrison is scared of a Federal ICAC , especially if it looks into Morrison’s preselection/branchstacking he would be the first one facing the Federal ICAC

  26. Scott
    It is hard to see how branch stacking comes under IBAC if it is only an internal matter falling under Labor rules, there must be evidence somewhere that public money is involved. I bet there are a lot of people in Labor happy IBAC are having a look and and are of the view, let the chips fall where they may.

    Don’t see anyone in Labor coming out trying to undermine IBAC like the Liberals have tried and are trying to undermine ICAC.

  28. Yeah nah frednk.

    2 party duopoly politicians on the make – same turd different smell.

    Never see the Greens or genuine independents assisting with these type of inquiries do you?

  30. frednk says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:52 pm

    Scott
    It is hard to see how branch stacking comes under IBAC if it is only an internal matter falling under Labor rules, there must be evidence somewhere that public money is involved.
    __________
    And that is exactly what has occurred. The media reports at the time revealed that Parliamentary and public sector employees (electorate officers) were actually undertaking full time and part time factional work instead of doing what they were being paid to do. Anthony Byrne admitted that was the case today.

  31. Cud Chewer
    This economics guy has been banging on for a while about the need to take int0 account the cost of long covid. Saw in an interview recently and got a good LOL when he talked about economists putting a $ value on a life, he mentioned something about economists , being heartless and not getting invited to parties
    .

    Why governments will have to consider the costs of long COVID when easing pandemic restrictions

    In the UK it is reported two million people have experienced long COVID. Around 385,000 having suffered symptoms for a year or more……………………..The focus, therefore, needs to shift towards protecting quality of life as much as saving lives in the first place.

    https://theconversation.com/why-governments-will-have-to-consider-the-costs-of-long-covid-when-easing-pandemic-restrictions-164944

  32. Scott says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:46 pm
    Reason why Morrison is scared of a Federal ICAC , especially if it looks into Morrison’s preselection/branchstacking he would be the first one facing the Federal ICAC

    Are we talking Guy Sebastian type vote rigging?

  34. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:45 pm

    “A WA mate recommended red back but have never seen it on sale here.”

    Yes, I do too. It is my second after Corona. Must have lemon for some reason.

    I also like Blue Moon Wheat Beer and Erdinger Weissbrau.

  35. poroti says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:06 pm

    No, the Taj Mahal was opened before I moved there.

    First Minister was ex-CO of 2 Cav so invited the 1AR and 2 Cav Officers to the function – absolute cracker of a night.

  36. People complain about the ratbag anti-vaxxers putting up their posters – well spotted this Red Flag effort today – with QR code attached…

  37. Ven, I agree that the ALP is heading for a win. However, expect the most of every dirty and underhand trick that the media and LNP can muster during the campaign. That is a good thing in my opinion because the Albanese Government will have a watertight excuse to reform media ownership and introduce truth in advertising laws.

  39. Lurker says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:00 pm

    Given the outcome of the Red Shirts rorting I can’t see anything substantive coming from this inquiry. Same shit, different day.

  40. Granny Anny

    The ALP aren’t going to do either.

    I suppose you think they’ll reform Privacy Laws and make them apply to Politicians too. No?

  41. Sceptic says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:05 pm

    Are we talking Guy Sebastian type vote rigging?

    ————-

    Newsltd style didn’t like that the other person who was running against Morrison in the preselection

  45. Raised in 2015. Yawned at by the electorate in 2018.

    Only the permanently aggrieved believe this is a political issue in 2021.

  46. Shades of Reagan 1984 – Its Morning in New South Wales!

    There was a real buzz around Sydney today!

    Polling over the next 8 weeks will be very interesting.


  47. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:55 pm

    Yeah nah frednk.

    2 party duopoly politicians on the make – same turd different smell.

    Never see the Greens or genuine independents assisting with these type of inquiries do you?

    I wonder how the green select he first senate position, it is the only prize worth having.

  48. I did four tours of the Southampton Real Ale Festival. Many many varied flavours textures and colours of ale, stout, porter, cider and Perry.

    And beards. So many beards.


  49. Lurker says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:00 pm

    frednk says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:52 pm

    Scott
    It is hard to see how branch stacking comes under IBAC if it is only an internal matter falling under Labor rules, there must be evidence somewhere that public money is involved.
    __________
    And that is exactly what has occurred. The media reports at the time revealed that Parliamentary and public sector employees (electorate officers) were actually undertaking full time and part time factional work instead of doing what they were being paid to do. Anthony Byrne admitted that was the case today.

    I would hope so. If none is found it could be argued that Labor is using IBAC to sort out an internal party problem. That in and of itself could be argued is corruption, but the Liberals and Greens will try hard to paint whatever, as the end of the world, that they won’t notice that subtle point.

    It is interesting to note Labor is not trying to undermine IBAC unlike the Liberal who seem to think corruption is acceptable.

  50. So frednk – whats more democratic?

    The Greens who hold a membership vote to select a Senator, or Labor which allocates Senate seats to union secretaries?

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