A matter of time

An early federal election either likely or not likely, depending on which papers you read.

Writing in InQueensland, press gallery veteran Dennis Atkins lays out the case for a November 27 election, observing that the imminent passage of technical electoral law legislation will “put the final duck in place for Morrison to call an election from the next weekend, with an announcement on either Saturday, October 23 or the following day”. With New South Wales’ super Saturday of state by-elections sure to be set for December 4, this would be the only feasible date for an election this year, at a time when “the balance of risk tilts further and further towards a poll in 2021” – at least in Atkins’ assessment.

Conversely, James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reckons the by-elections have “dramatically shrank (sic) the chances of an early federal election”. Unspecified “insiders” point to the risks of “election fatigue”, together with the hope that the government’s stocks might be boosted by the opening of national borders early next year and summer weather keeping case numbers within acceptable limits.

Other news:

• As noted in the post below, Andrew Constance will resign from his state seat of Bega to contest preselection for the corresponding federal seat of Gilmore, which Fiona Phillips gained for Labor in 2019 by a 2.6% margin after a 3.3% swing against the trend. Constance is particularly helpful for the Liberals in this seat due to the sympathetic media attention he received after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the 2019/20 bushfires, which devolved into a public relations disaster for Scott Morrison. However, he will first have to face a local preselection ballot, which the state party is loath to deny its members after imposing Warren Mundine on them in 2019, only for him to lose the seat. He has a rival contender lined up in Paul Ell, an associate with law firm RMB Lawyers. The Guardian reports Ell has “strong support of moderates in the branch”, such that “some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected”.

• There has been much speculation that Gladys Berejiklian could line up as the Liberal candidate for Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall in 2019. However, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a consensus that this will not be feasible until the Independent Commission Against Corruption brings down the findings of investigation into her, presumably under the assumption that such findings would be favourable, which it is not likely to do for several months. The Daily Telegraph reports the preselection front-runner is Jane Buncle, a Manly barrister and factional moderate who is “understood to believe climate change is real”, although a number of others are named as potentially competitive starters.

The West Australian reports Liberal MP Melissa Price had no trouble seeing off a preselection challenge for her seat of Durack from Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard, winning the party ballot by 47 votes to three.

• Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and Left faction convener, has been officially confirmed to fill the South Australian Labor Senate vacancy caused by the death of Alex Gallacher on August 29.

• The Age/Herald have published Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by state from their regular monthly Resolve Strategic polling. This might have been interesting if they had included results from the smaller states, but they are in fact only provided for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, breakdowns for which are already provided in the regular monthly release.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,582 comments on “A matter of time”

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  1. Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has cleared the way for a deal on climate change after a party room meeting backed his stance in talks with Prime Minister Scott Morrison on whether to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.

    Labor just need to push that on all issues that matter Libs come late & never deliver.. be it climate, social issues, defence, ICAC.. anything… the only thing they deliver is PORK

  2. When you despair at our pollies take a moment to consider ‘Mercan’ pollies. Jeebus. I hear Bill Maher mention this guy and thought he was taking the piss. It seems not.

    Democrats and the state’s Republican governor have called for Rep. Ken Weyler to be removed as chair of an influential committee after he emailed the conspiracy theories to colleagues

    A New Hampshire lawmaker is facing backlash for reportedly circulating wild conspiracy theories to his colleagues about COVID-19 vaccines, “octopus-like creatures” and babies born with “pitch-black eyes.”…………………..In Mexico, babies of vaccinated parents are born with “pitch-black eyes,” according to the document’s baseless claims. “It also appears that these babies are aging too fast, as they can stand and even walk at only three months old.”…….Weyler spoke with InDepthNH.org by phone and acknowledged “there’s exaggeration on both sides.”

    “I’m speaking my mind as a state rep. and skeptical person,” Weyler said, adding he won’t step down from his position and that he looks to “sources other than the CDC” for information about the safety of vaccines.

    https://people.com/politics/new-hampshire-lawmaker-spreading-false-claims-covid-19-vaccines/

  3. rhwombat:

    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:48 pm

    [‘There was only one way of seeing if urine tasted sweet then’]

    He drank it? Acknowledgement to the pioneers of insulin.

  4. DisplayName says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 10:02 pm
    Sceptic
    It’s “with conditions”.

    Wonder what they will be :P.

    I’m betting none of any significance or that undermine SfMs election strategy… the main condition is he can rely on .. promises anything deliver nothing.

  5. The NSW Liberal Party lost a Premier.
    The NSW Nationals lost a Deputy Premier.

    Some people need to learn the meaning of ‘perspective’.

  6. rhwombat says Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:48 pm

    Diabetes mellitus (“urinating sweetly “) was the term Thomas Willis of Oxford coined in 1674. There was only one way of seeing if urine tasted sweet then. These days we use a biochemical reaction on a dipstick.
    The Ebers papyrus (~1550 BCE) describes a treatment for “excessive urination”: “water from the bird pond, elderberry, fibres of the asit plant (which we still can’t identify), fresh milk, beer-swill, flower of the cucumber, and green dates.” Some things have improved a bit.

    Does it work because it tastes so bad that the patient would rather be dehydrated?

  7. poroti says Monday, October 11, 2021 at 10:02 pm

    “I’m speaking my mind as a state rep. and skeptical person,” Weyler said, adding he won’t step down from his position and that he looks to “sources other than the CDC” for information about the safety of vaccines.

    I don’t see much evidence of a sceptical mind there. Quite the opposite.

  8. JOBkeeper saw the Accounting industry very, very busy giving advice – and guess where the billions have gone

    So from advice as to the minimising of tax obligations to advice on how to qualify for JOBkeeper

    Plus the advice is a tax deductible expense

    Meanwhile, back in the real world some were provided with no support and others were forced to their superannuation accruals

    People vote – not Company Balance Sheets

  9. The influence of the early years. I just saw an interview with the German guy Hasselmann who won the Nobel Prize in Physics this year. Watching and listening him it was hard to believe he was born in 1931 and he had a decidedly English accent. He attended primary and secondary school in England and returned to Germany in 1949 but the accent remained. A sharper ear would identify exactly where in England the accent is from.

  10. C@tmomma:

    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 10:13 pm

    [‘The NSW Liberal Party lost a Premier.
    The NSW Nationals lost a Deputy Premier.

    Some people need to learn the meaning of ‘perspective’.]

    Agree, when the ICAC’s report is released, Berejiklian won’t be smelling of roses, nor would the corrupt Labor government of the ’90s. It’s all to do with life-long entitlements.

  11. Melbourne Mailing?

    Mantack?

    Where is the Ombudsman on this matter?

    Is Mantack now a convicted criminal?

    For fraud against his former employer?

    And his former position was?

    Anyone seen any media reporting?

    Not an excuse for the former ALP Member because what he did was against Party rules (if not illegal) – and he no longer holds Party membership because he broke the rules

    But why are certain matters headlines and others not?

    As I am informed about 40 matters a year are referred for inquiry – most of these flying under the radar of media

  12. poroti:

    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 10:55 pm

    [‘Mavis

    When is the report due to be released ? Or is the timing of the release a bit of a “how long is a piece of string” ?’]

    She doesn’t appear until October 18. When it releases its report, it’ll firmly red flag our Glad & dear Daryl. And I’m not against Gypsies, placing a small wager on Tyson Fury.

  13. Vaccine rollout:

    NSW

    74% fully vaccinated; 90.4% first dose

    National

    62.4% fully vaccinated; 82.4% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.

    – SMH.

  14. poroti says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:28 pm

    Rubbish. The only people who would care about that stuff would never vote Liberal.

  15. frednk says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:33 pm

    Rubbish. See my previous post.

    The political decisions made in the lead up to the election had nothing to do with religion.

  16. Quoll @ #2568 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 8:28 pm

    The pattern is clear: Australia’s next election will be a competition on cruelty
    Behrouz Boochani
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/11/the-pattern-is-clear-australias-next-election-will-be-a-competition-on-cruelty

    The next election will be run on the status quo position and any policy discussion will occur after the election.

    Sadly there are no political benefits and plenty of negative ones to do otherwise.

  17. poroti:

    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 11:07 pm

    [‘As long as it looked like this’]

    It did indeed, but, my great-niece (2) became so scared, I felt obliged to relocate it. And it’s goodnight from him.

  18. Via poroti:

    When you despair at our pollies take a moment to consider ‘Mercan’ pollies. Jeebus. I hear Bill Maher mention this guy and thought he was taking the piss. It seems not.

    So, after a couple of Wiki clicks…

    The New Hampshire House of Reps has 400 members. (Yep, almost triple the Australian HoR, for a state with the population of South Australia.) This guy is pushing 80, and a couple of thousand people voted for him. (His district is basically an outer suburb of Boston, and smaller than the average council ward here.) He makes good clickbait, but that’s about it.

    Also, they get paid $200/term (2 years) – politics is very much a side hustle there. I got more as pocket money when I was a kid.

  19. ‘ On Sunday night, John Oliver used his Emmy-winning HBO series Last Week Tonight to take shots at his corporate overlord, AT&T.

    According to an in-depth Reuters investigation this past week, the disinformation station One America News Network—described by Oliver as “a far-right channel that peddles COVID misinformation and conspiracy theories”—was started by AT&T, which still owns WarnerMedia, the parent company of HBO.’
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/john-oliver-torches-his-atandt-bosses-over-oan-reveal-you-make-the-world-worse?via=twitter_page


  20. Bucephalus says:
    Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 12:02 am

    frednk says:
    Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:33 pm

    Rubbish. See my previous post.

    The political decisions made in the lead up to the election had nothing to do with religion.

    I tend to agree, it is a problem when a group that has a very narrow view of the world takes control. It’s a problem when the branch stacking comes from that narrow group and is well organized. In the Liberal’s case the church provides the zeal ( the belief the end justifies the means), the contempt of science and the structure.

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