Writing in InQueensland, press gallery veteran Dennis Atkins lays out the case for a November 27 election, observing that the imminent passage of technical electoral law legislation will “put the final duck in place for Morrison to call an election from the next weekend, with an announcement on either Saturday, October 23 or the following day”. With New South Wales’ super Saturday of state by-elections sure to be set for December 4, this would be the only feasible date for an election this year, at a time when “the balance of risk tilts further and further towards a poll in 2021” – at least in Atkins’ assessment.
Conversely, James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reckons the by-elections have “dramatically shrank (sic) the chances of an early federal election”. Unspecified “insiders” point to the risks of “election fatigue”, together with the hope that the government’s stocks might be boosted by the opening of national borders early next year and summer weather keeping case numbers within acceptable limits.
Other news:
• As noted in the post below, Andrew Constance will resign from his state seat of Bega to contest preselection for the corresponding federal seat of Gilmore, which Fiona Phillips gained for Labor in 2019 by a 2.6% margin after a 3.3% swing against the trend. Constance is particularly helpful for the Liberals in this seat due to the sympathetic media attention he received after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the 2019/20 bushfires, which devolved into a public relations disaster for Scott Morrison. However, he will first have to face a local preselection ballot, which the state party is loath to deny its members after imposing Warren Mundine on them in 2019, only for him to lose the seat. He has a rival contender lined up in Paul Ell, an associate with law firm RMB Lawyers. The Guardian reports Ell has “strong support of moderates in the branch”, such that “some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected”.
• There has been much speculation that Gladys Berejiklian could line up as the Liberal candidate for Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall in 2019. However, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a consensus that this will not be feasible until the Independent Commission Against Corruption brings down the findings of investigation into her, presumably under the assumption that such findings would be favourable, which it is not likely to do for several months. The Daily Telegraph reports the preselection front-runner is Jane Buncle, a Manly barrister and factional moderate who is “understood to believe climate change is real”, although a number of others are named as potentially competitive starters.
• The West Australian reports Liberal MP Melissa Price had no trouble seeing off a preselection challenge for her seat of Durack from Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard, winning the party ballot by 47 votes to three.
• Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and Left faction convener, has been officially confirmed to fill the South Australian Labor Senate vacancy caused by the death of Alex Gallacher on August 29.
• The Age/Herald have published Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by state from their regular monthly Resolve Strategic polling. This might have been interesting if they had included results from the smaller states, but they are in fact only provided for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, breakdowns for which are already provided in the regular monthly release.
Lars,
in two weeks time people will get sick, and people will be dying within 3 weeks. If a few kids die, it’ll be all over.
I have heard that doctors once tasted urine when diagnosing illness. That of course leads to the old joke about paying attention: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/urine-for-a-surprise/
lars,
Whomever delivers policy that voters support
Never seen a Greens Government in my life time.
yeah south – death riding. See how that goes.
Branch stacking in the Liberals must be interesting, there are so few members how would you notice. One solid church congregation and it’s yours. Several congregation going after the same branch might be a problem, hay.
The Morman’s and Hillsong going after the same branch must be entertaining.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:35 pm
So frednk – whats more democratic?
The Greens who hold a membership vote to select a Senator, or Labor which allocates Senate seats to union secretaries?
If the latter was true there would be no need to branch stack now would there.
I once bought a six pack of this: https://www.danmurphys.com.au/product/DM_762391/matso-s-chilli-beer-330ml
Never again.
yeah I think ur right frednk
frednk says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:41 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:35 pm
So frednk – whats more democratic?
The Greens who hold a membership vote to select a Senator, or Labor which allocates Senate seats to union secretaries?
If the latter was true there would be no need to branch stack now would there.
___________________
Labor members don’t vote for senate positions. At least not in Victoria.
“The focus, therefore, needs to shift towards protecting quality of life as much as saving lives in the first place.”
That’s what goes through my head every time I hear that idiot Gig Foster
Well maybe union’s are democratic lurker?
As I understand it from perusing the SDA publications – many young retail workers are very anxious about homo-sexuals and their agenda and the importance of traditional families? Who knew?
Lurker says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:45 pm
…
___________________
Labor members don’t vote for senate positions. At least not in Victoria.
True.
A bit like Australians don’t get to vote on legislation. The system chooses representatives ( including union leadership) to duke it out.
Having said that reform is being argued.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/pops/pop34/c10
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:51 pm
Well maybe union’s are democratic lurker?
As I understand it from perusing the SDA publications – many young retail workers are very anxious about homo-sexuals and their agenda and the importance of traditional families? Who knew?
Join a union, take an interest.
Lars,
So, which side are you on?
Asking for another sock puppet like you?
Lars Von Trier at 8:51 pm
Yes indeed. It was quite a shock to discover how socially ‘dinosaur’ young people working in ‘shops’ must be. 😆
Player One:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 4:21 pm
Mavis says: @ #2335 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 4:12 pm
[‘Perrottet is either gutsy or foolhardy. If his opening up plan works, he’ll be lauded; if it fails, he’ll be taken apart, confirming he’s a Johnny-come-lately – big gamble.
Player One say:
[‘He’s gambling that NSW Labor will remain unelectable. I’d actually call that a pretty safe bet.’]
As I see it, Perrottet-Rees Mogg is impetutous, heatstrong,
a political novice, the charisma of a log, who would be a nobody had not Berejikian resigned in disgrace.
Who, for instance, has a carboard cut out, selling for around $80 – this after the ICAC listed her for a hearing on an alleged breach of public trust and the more serious allegation of failing to report the corruption of the slimy Maguire.
And had she not fallen on her sword, a movement for her
political sainthood would be well under way, doubting very much that Minns would’ve had half a shoo-in.
Minns chances of restoring Labor in NSW to its historcially rightfull place – eg, Wran, Carr – have, though, risen dramatically by not having Berejiklian to face in 2023. He’s now up against a minnow, who’s most interesting physcial feature is his eyebrows, aping those of his protege, Howard; his most attractive political quality (for reactionaries), Thatcher’s and Frydenburgs’ neoliberalism.
What I’ve seen of Minns evidences he’s well aware of the battle ahead. He doesn’t seem like a show pony, a motor-mouth, taking small steps whereas his opponent’s the opposite. It could turn out to be a case of Aesop’s fable:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSCW2ksGSwA
Politically as long as Labor is seen to be genuine about reform to prevent Branch stacking I think they will be fine despite media attempts to call it a crisis.
Time will tell. As for the Liberals I think Western Australia is a warning for that party and others too.
Lurker says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:45 pm
frednk says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:41 pm
..
Labor members don’t vote for senate positions. At least not in Victoria.
And why is Victoria in the dog house? What is IBAC looking into?
Playing it all wrong mate, should be asking why is IBAC sorting out Labors branch staking? If it is so important, why aren’t IBAC also sorting out our problems as well?
guytaur says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:58 pm
Politically as long as Labor is seen to be genuine about reform to prevent Branch stacking I think they will be fine despite media attempts to call it a crisis.
__________
Oh it’s a crisis alright, or maybe a cancer would be a better term, consuming both major parties down to the bone.
guytaur says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:58 pm
Politically as long as Labor is seen to be genuine about reform to prevent Branch stacking I think they will be fine despite media attempts to call it a crisis.
Time will tell. As for the Liberals i think Western Australia is a warning for that party and others too.
Branching voting suspended.
IBAC looking into it.
No-one defending those caught.
I think you have to say they are serious.
frednk says:
And why is Victoria in the dog house? What is IBAC looking into?
Playing it all wrong mate, should be asking why is IBAC sorting out Labors branch staking? If it is so important, why aren’t IBAC also sorting out our problems as well?
_____________
I have no idea what you mean. It is literally incomprehensible to me.
poroti says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:57 pm
Lars Von Trier at 8:51 pm
Yes indeed. It was quite a shock to discover how socially ‘dinosaur’ young people working in ‘shops’ must be.
__________________________
And it seems these socially conservative youth elect people who reflect these attitudes:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-is-the-union-that-represents-supermarket-workers-stopping-gay-marriage-20150430-1mwl32.html
Whats more democratic?
The Greens who hold a membership vote to select a Senator, or Labor which allocates Senate seats to union secretaries?
________________________________
Wrong, the correct answer is the Liberals – the best democracy that Money can buy, steal, flog off, subsidise, rort, pork barrell, negatively gear and apply Franking Credits to all at the cost of the planet that your grandkids will inhert.
I’ve been involved in Labor representative election as a voter. The people up for election put in a lot of effort to get votes.
I have the right to vote but I don’t have the day time to be an active member, which is a pity because policy development would be interesting and the party definitely encourages you to get involved. . I went to all the candidate presentations so I took it serious also.
In the electorate I was involved in I saw a hard fought election, a lot of good candidates, but I did not see any branch stacking.
frednk – have you been involved in any Labor related litigation?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-preselections-can-proceed-after-judge-lifts-injunction-20210609-p57zkx.html
If its all so hunky-dory why is it ending up in Court?
Lurker says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:02 pm
frednk says:
And why is Victoria in the dog house? What is IBAC looking into?
Playing it all wrong mate, should be asking why is IBAC sorting out Labors branch staking? If it is so important, why aren’t IBAC also sorting out our problems as well?
_____________
I have no idea what you mean. It is literally incomprehensible to me.
Change “our” for “Liberals”, from memory Nath claims to be traditional Labor. I think that is you, it’s hard to keep track.
The point in simpler terms, Labor is trying to deal with branch stacking, the Liberals are letting the churches rip.
frednk – by Labor’s own admission 25% of the Vic ALP membership was paid for. Hardly a paragon of democratic virtue is it?
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:15 pm
frednk – have you been involved in any Labor related litigation?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-preselections-can-proceed-after-judge-lifts-injunction-20210609-p57zkx.html
If its all so hunky-dory why is it ending up in Court?
No, I only get to vote in one seat, and I only have experience with one seat.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:18 pm
frednk – by Labor’s own admission 25% of the Vic ALP membership was paid for. Hardly a paragon of democratic virtue is it?
The key phase in that comment is: “by Labors own admission”. The Liberals have not faced up to anything.
The only interesting point is 25% of Labors membership is greater than the Liberal party membership self paid or otherwise.
frednk says:
The point in simpler terms, Labor is trying to deal with branch stacking, the Liberals are letting the churches rip.
_________
I wasn’t aware that the Victorian Labor Party referred itself to IBAC. Who knew?
guytaur says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:58 pm
“As for the Liberals I think Western Australia is a warning for that party and others too.”
What happened in WA had nothing to do with Branch stacking. It was just terrible politics. So many mistakes.
Lurker says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:22 pm
frednk says:
The point in simpler terms, Labor is trying to deal with branch stacking, the Liberals are letting the churches rip.
_________
I wasn’t aware that the Victorian Labor Party referred itself to IBAC. Who knew?
I don’t. but it is interesting Labor aren’t going around trying to undermine IBAC ,like the Liberals are trying to undermine ICAC.
Is it because Labor are very happy with what is going on or because Labor has more respect for our institutions than the Liberals.
In either case the Liberal’s attempt to undermine ICAC reflects very badly on the Liberals
Bucephalus at 9:25 pm
Maybe not branch stacking but recruitment drives among certain ‘devout demographics’ sure did not help.
Won’t this get Angus Taylor and his scummy crew of fossil fuel lovers, Canavan and Pitt going?
Don’t be surprised if Pitt tries to stop it seeing his record with stopping anything renewable in QLD.
https://twitter.com/AnnastaciaMP/status/1447442418597449733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1447442418597449733%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2Flive%2F2021%2Foct%2F11%2Faustralia-covid-news-live-sydney-lockdown-freedom-corona-perrottet-victoria-andrews-retail-
Bucephalus says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:25 pm
guytaur says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 8:58 pm
“As for the Liberals I think Western Australia is a warning for that party and others too.”
What happened in WA had nothing to do with Branch stacking. It was just terrible politics. So many mistakes.
Brought about by a very small membership with a very narrow view of society. Churches may see it as a success taking over the Liberal party. Churches do not represent mainstream Australia. In WA the churches are now competing for the protest vote held by the greens and family first ( a well selected, but miss named party if ever there was).
https://www.ombudsman.vic.gov.au/our-impact/news/referral-of-a-matter-from-victorias-legislative-council/
Doesn’t say specifically who voted for what though :P.
frednk says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:27 pm
Is it because Labor are very happy with what is going on or because Labor has more respect for our institutions than the Liberals.
______________
Considering that the Vic government has now lost 4 ministers and who knows what’s to come I would assume that despite being happy with getting rid of Somyurek, most serious political operators would be appalled about what is going on.
Anthony Byrne has tipped a bucket over all of them by initiating all this. The real question is can it be contained to the Somyurek machine? So far it has, but who knows what Somyurek knows and what he can prove and how vengeful he is. I’d imagine he would be quite vengeful.
Greensborough Growler @ #1897 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 8:24 pm
I wouldn’t even glorify what they’re doing as being genuinely aggrieved, GG. nath and Lars von Trier are simply muck-rakers.
And isn’t it interesting to note that Lars is so slimy it has caused his faux bonhomie facade to slip?
Not to mention that his guttersnipe mate, Sock Puppet of the Day, appears from my casual reading of today’s contributions to have spent all day glued to his chair in a vain attempt to undermine the Victorian Labor Party. Whilst at one and the same time he, and his pusillanimous political pal from the gutter, just ignore the fact that the Victorian Greens do branch stacking (Alex Bhathal ring any bells?), and the Victorian Liberals branch stack with Pentecostal and Mormon losers like there’s no tomorrow.
*crickets*
Luke Donnellan did the right thing and resigned.
Michael Sukkar is still there and Scott Morrison couldn’t give two hoots about it because they’re HIS people.
And guess who’ll be as silent as a sock puppet? nath Michael Lurker and Edwina St John Lars von Trier.
Apparently we have a new standard of guilt that they have also been trying to retail to suckers. If it doesn’t make it to IBAC, it doesn’t count and because there is no Federal ICAC, it doesn’t count. Talk about ‘Alternative Facts’.
Pa-thetic.
Angus Taylor held up when he should have ran. Big political mistake was made.
poroti says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:28 pm
Bucephalus at 9:25 pm
Maybe not branch stacking but recruitment drives among certain ‘devout demographics’ sure did not help.
_________
It is funny how certain groups get “activated”. Religious groups, ethnic groups.
Still I think there are some untapped community reservoirs out there for both parties, My suggestions:
1) Chess Clubs;
2) Books Clubs
3) Footy teams (although it has been tried in some instances but not fully tapped)
4) Tennis comps (just add in the fine print that they are joining the local Branch too)
5) conservative shop assistants ( they seem so militantly conservative – joining the Local Branch shouldn’t be a stretch)
Lurker says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:36 pm
frednk says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:27 pm
Is it because Labor are very happy with what is going on or because Labor has more respect for our institutions than the Liberals.
______________
Considering that the Vic government has now lost 4 ministers and who knows what’s to come I would assume that despite being happy with getting rid of Somyurek, most serious political operators would be appalled about what is going on.
Anthony Byrne has tipped a bucket over all of them by initiating all this. The real question is can it be contained to the Somyurek machine? So far it has, but who knows what Somyurek knows and what he can prove and how vengeful he is. I’d imagine he would be quite vengeful.
___________________
He’s not Buddhist is he?
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:18 pm
Both parties cheat. If that were a sin, the political extension of Murdoch would see him serving a term in the geriatric wing of Rikers, the only fair thing is that I think Jerry’s dissatisfied, finding in Mick a less interesting party (?).
Lurker says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:36 pm
..
Considering that the Vic government has now lost 4 ministers and who knows what’s to come
…
That is the time to do it. When your majority is so large the loss of a dozen or so does not matter.
The Liberals are so far behind the loss of the same number really wouldn’t make much of a difference, they could move to a telephone box for party room meetings.
It would be hard to argue there are many Liberal members that are worth saving underlining the pitiful state of the Liberal party.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:41 pm
He’s not Buddhist is he?
_____________
I don’t believe he is.
But Guy Rundle has an excellent piece on him, how the ‘Sultan of Springvale’ came ‘towards Spring Street, up Mulgrave Freeway like the Seljuks swooping out of central Asia towards Constantinople in the 1200s.’ Where he engaged with the ‘Dance of the Buttefknife’ and other notorious exploits.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/06/17/unions-victorian-labor-somyurek/
bc @ #2504 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 8:36 pm
Diabetes mellitus (“urinating sweetly “) was the term Thomas Willis of Oxford coined in 1674. There was only one way of seeing if urine tasted sweet then. These days we use a biochemical reaction on a dipstick.
The Ebers papyrus (~1550 BCE) describes a treatment for “excessive urination”: “water from the bird pond, elderberry, fibres of the asit plant (which we still can’t identify), fresh milk, beer-swill, flower of the cucumber, and green dates.” Some things have improved a bit.
Mavis says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:44 pm
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 9:18 pm
Both parties cheat.
…
For safe seats, on either side, it has to be a hard thing to manage. The prize is pretty good if your into that sort of thing.
Well all this branch stacking doesn’t seem to have hurt the Victorian ALP.
These corruption commissions don’t really seem to be achieving much. Minor political transgressions. Maybe they have a preventative effect but I doubt it.
As I understand Andrews referred the matter which is the source of such attention by media
And. I would assume, provided the Terms of Reference
The Commissioner can, of course, seek to have the Terms of Reference extended (which did not happen with the so called Banking Royal Commission despite what was tendered by way of submission – so a waste of time and money)
Any Government not agreeing any extension would be so marked you would think
But to branch stacking
Branch stacking is not illegal
It is however against ALP rules
In regards branch stacking, how did Bastiaan and Sukkar gain control of the Victorian Branch?
Control they maintain, including over certain Councils where the campaigns of Councillors are run from the Offices of Federal Liberal MP’s
It is suggested to non aligned Councillors that they will not be the beneficiaries of Federal spending such as on car parks and sporting facilities (so you do what you are told or you get nothing)
And where does Joyce’s daughter work ?
And the mother of his child?
Once upon a time family members could be employed in the Electoral Office of a family member
Which was stopped
So they now work in the Offices of other MP’s (witness Joyce because the employer of his daughter is now in the media currently)
Mind you there is no Federal IBAC, so Andrews if in the Federal sphere would not have had an authority to refer the matter to and provide the Terms of Reference to
A tangled web, hey?
And the games of power and influence – in every aspect of life (including JOBkeeper)
The former ALP parliamentarian who is the subject of this Inquiry is no longer an ALP member, said to have resigned ahead of being expelled (and he professes his innocence it should be noted)
Perhaps an in house inquiry should have been attended – as with Bastiaan and Sukkar (by Sukkar’s former employer no less!!)
Before you get to the former Upper House MP now the Member for a Lower House seat in the Victorian Parliament
One question always leads to another
Does Dom know what he’s doing?