Writing in InQueensland, press gallery veteran Dennis Atkins lays out the case for a November 27 election, observing that the imminent passage of technical electoral law legislation will “put the final duck in place for Morrison to call an election from the next weekend, with an announcement on either Saturday, October 23 or the following day”. With New South Wales’ super Saturday of state by-elections sure to be set for December 4, this would be the only feasible date for an election this year, at a time when “the balance of risk tilts further and further towards a poll in 2021” – at least in Atkins’ assessment.
Conversely, James Morrow of the Daily Telegraph reckons the by-elections have “dramatically shrank (sic) the chances of an early federal election”. Unspecified “insiders” point to the risks of “election fatigue”, together with the hope that the government’s stocks might be boosted by the opening of national borders early next year and summer weather keeping case numbers within acceptable limits.
Other news:
• As noted in the post below, Andrew Constance will resign from his state seat of Bega to contest preselection for the corresponding federal seat of Gilmore, which Fiona Phillips gained for Labor in 2019 by a 2.6% margin after a 3.3% swing against the trend. Constance is particularly helpful for the Liberals in this seat due to the sympathetic media attention he received after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the 2019/20 bushfires, which devolved into a public relations disaster for Scott Morrison. However, he will first have to face a local preselection ballot, which the state party is loath to deny its members after imposing Warren Mundine on them in 2019, only for him to lose the seat. He has a rival contender lined up in Paul Ell, an associate with law firm RMB Lawyers. The Guardian reports Ell has “strong support of moderates in the branch”, such that “some senior party sources say an intervention will be needed to ensure Constance is preselected”.
• There has been much speculation that Gladys Berejiklian could line up as the Liberal candidate for Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall in 2019. However, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a consensus that this will not be feasible until the Independent Commission Against Corruption brings down the findings of investigation into her, presumably under the assumption that such findings would be favourable, which it is not likely to do for several months. The Daily Telegraph reports the preselection front-runner is Jane Buncle, a Manly barrister and factional moderate who is “understood to believe climate change is real”, although a number of others are named as potentially competitive starters.
• The West Australian reports Liberal MP Melissa Price had no trouble seeing off a preselection challenge for her seat of Durack from Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard, winning the party ballot by 47 votes to three.
• Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and Left faction convener, has been officially confirmed to fill the South Australian Labor Senate vacancy caused by the death of Alex Gallacher on August 29.
• The Age/Herald have published Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of federal voting intention by state from their regular monthly Resolve Strategic polling. This might have been interesting if they had included results from the smaller states, but they are in fact only provided for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, breakdowns for which are already provided in the regular monthly release.
There are of course places in Victoria that being seen drinking a non Victorian beer can be a little dangerous. At the very least it might cause strange looks and sneers. It is fortunate that I discovered Crown Lager. It was CUB, so I couldn’t be accused of being traitorous, and perhaps I was looked upon as a Diplomat or Aristocrat.
In WA Emu Export aka Bush Chook is apparently the thing – same boat as VB.
Of course, it would be the SDA that sinks the ALP boat in Victoria. It would have been better if they they just stayed in the DLP in the 70s.
@KosSamaras tweets
Doing a focus group in Sydney atm. Amazing how the tone is so different from what many of us read on this platform.
Summary of tone.
“We are at the end of the beginning” – of this pandemic.
Bucephalus @ #2397 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 5:23 pm
There are some craft beers that you should only drink one. Or two. Slowly.
My advice to you Buce is look for craft brewers who do Session ales. Or lighter, summer style beers. I enjoyed a few of these recently….
http://www.beergardenbrewing.com/eyre-peninsula-ale/
If you’re into one and only the one beer, you’re missing out. There’s a huge range.
When the main topic of conversation is about the best kind of beer I reckon it must be a slow news day.
Would we elect a PM who didn’t drink beer?
Lizzie
Yes. Bob Hawke, but its complicated.
Buce
There was one craft beer I really liked. Can’t bloody remember its name but it was fantastic as a sip, sip, sip beer. Even the froth was enjoyable. It would be bloody useless on a stinking hot day when you ‘had a thirst up’ though 🙂
Bucephalus says Monday, October 11, 2021 at 5:56 pm
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01900-0/fulltext
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57833394
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003773
Bucephalus says Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:03 pm
I used to prefer EB. I would never drink VB out of principle.
Ch 10 news showed Minns having a haircut somewhere in SW-W Sydney. Apparently he raised several $’000 for charity having his mullet removed.
Also on Ch 10, a story showing Morrison claiming he wanted to take people into his confidence over emissions reduction, with Albo telling the government to pull its collective finger out. There was also Taylor contradicting Morrison by proclaiming he didn’t want to hear criticism of ‘blue hydrogen’ and his other dodgy proposals. The deputy PM didn’t appear.
‘Bucephalus says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 5:56 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 5:48 pm
If there’s strong evidence that it’s a problem then I’m happy to accept it but everything I’ve seen to date has been anecdotal.’
——————————–
You would not be happy to accept it.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n853
From media reporting “branch stacking is not illegal. But it is against ALP rules”
What happens in business is that you appoint who you appoint because you have respect for ability, trust in commitment and preference for loyalty.
Hence people known to you.
So there is something to be said about it is not what you know but who you know – even at Company Board level.
And you need the numbers.
In a Party political sense, the membership numbers in any Branch or Division are very few (and then you get to the age demographic).
How many contributing to this site are Members of a Political Party, and how many turn up to Branch Meetings?
And, by extension, how many vote at pre selection contests (noting the Candidates would be trying to “get the vote out”, including voting for them)?
How many did Turnbull bus to Canberra for his maiden address to the Lower House?
And to digress.
It continues to appear that the infection numbers in the West and North of Melbourne are trending down.
Unfortunately replaced by increasing numbers in other locations, being where the growth corridors are to the South-East, this demographic seemingly confirmed by the age profile at under 40.
So those who protested and those who ignored Health Orders on Grand Final weekend?
When all is said and done, the number of people forging vaccine certificates will be less than those voting twice at elections..
Boerwar @ #2414 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 5:15 pm
buces historical anti-CC stance would suggest you’re spot on
I have a colleague in the UK with long covid. She’s in her early 50s, has been fully vaccinated. Came down with the delta strain, 16 days in hospital, now home. She’s lost her voice, and suffers from fatigue, palpitations, coughing, and night sweats. Yesterday she was at the hospital for nerve conduction tests because of the weakness in her legs. In her words: “It’s the virus that keeps on giving….”
And Albo having a beer on ‘Freedom Day’ is in line with his rope-a-dope strategy throughout this phoney war period. Eliminate the reasons not to vote for the regular guy who we all know…
bc @ #2412 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 5:43 pm
Have I told you about the time as a 17yo touring South America, I and a mate were billeted to couple (who worked for Alan Bond in Santiago) and the wife sat us down one day, put on a soft porn movie and handed us Emu beer with ice….?
Gough and Bob ‘back in the day’.
My sad beer story happened at a nice food court in Beijing. There was only one outlet selling beer and that was Budweiser. It was happy hour with two beers for the price of one. I couldn’t explain that I only wanted one and so ended up consuming double the quantity of my un-favourite beer.
Simon Katich says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:20 pm
Have I told you about the time as a 17yo touring South America, I and a mate were billeted to couple (who worked for Alan Bond in Santiago) and the wife sat us down one day, put on a soft porn movie and handed us Emu beer with ice….?
________________
Now that’s a good host.
SK
The beer with ice never quite worked for me – I can recall the Beer Bintang in Bali which would come with ice in the glass (sans the soft porn)..
Boerwar at 6:15 pm
!!!!!!! Bloody hell, the ‘in-hospital’ .
Lizzie @ #2408 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 6:11 pm
Paul Keating can’t stand beer.
Watson’s pub in the Entertainment Quarter is one of those we dash out of the Members to have lunch during the Test Match. They do a decent Vege Burger, Chips and Salad.
However today, would have told the scullers what we really thought…
sprocket_ @ #2416 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 5:17 pm
Hmm. Those two things seem unrelated.
Another beer story – in Japan a long time ago I came across a small flat bed truck that had lost most of its cargo of bottled beer. A very frothy intersection ensued.
There was one stubby of Sapporo beer left in the fridge, so as I see other comments on beer, I am smashing it down. And today was supposed to be an alcohol free day, Oh well, only 1 beer eh?
When I was young 6 schooners in an hour was my strong point.
Hardly drink beer at all anymore unless it’s the small cans of Estrella on a very hot day & they’re icy cold.
I have heard it said, from a friend who knows his beer, that Dark Emu beer may well be one of the best beers he has ever had. I will of course do my research and test this theory….
To move away from beer for a moment.
Panahi is attacking Brett Sutton in the Hun tonight
She who was caught without a mask last week
”
Bucephalussays:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 4:02 pm
If Gladys didn’t have to resign then why is Donnellan resigning?
”
He did not resign from Vic parliament like Gladys did from NSW parliament.
I have a good beer story.
In the early 80s a certain Carlton Premiership player owned a pub in inner Melb.
One night, a local 16 year old kid with a tough reputation came in and while the Publican went out the back the kid jumped the bar, poured himself a beer, then robbed the till before leaving.
The Premiership Publican returned and was told by patrons what had happened. He swore that he would bash the kid the next time he saw him.
A few weeks later the kid returned. Burst into the pub with an arm in plaster, the result of a motorcycle accident.
‘I hear you’ve been bad mouthing me’ the kid yelled to the Carlton Premiership Publican, who came forward angrily to confront the boy, who proceeded to knock out the much bigger Carlton Premiership Publican.
He then jumped the bar again, poured himself a beer…. and robbed the till.
Where is our main man, Rex?
p
For some reason or other Long Covid is not getting much of a public policy trot in Oz.
Clearly it is a major issue.
Shellbellsays:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:37 pm
Where is our main man, Rex?
________________
Been in hiding since the Vic case numbers exploded.
He was pretty confident in Victoria’s ability to handle the Delta outbreak.
Actually i hope he is ok and nothing bad has happened to him and he will start posting again.
A WA mate recommended red back but have never seen it on sale here.
Pica says Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:34 pm
The best beer I ever had was in Kimba, South Australia. I have no idea what it was, but it was cold, and I had just spent all day in an un-airconditioned truck with outside temperatures hitting 47c.
@crikey_news tweets
There’s plenty of cause for (careful) celebration at Australia’s vaccination rate. But while inner-city areas in states which have experienced long lockdowns have high vaccine uptake rates, there are huge gaps across the country, writes @AmberMaySchultz
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/10/11/australia-may-become-the-most-vaccinated-country-in-the-world-a-cause-for-careful-celebration/
($)
Yet more victims of Morrison’s habitual too little, too late.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-11/australians-remain-stranded-in-afghanistan-taliban-interested/100529936
Agreed Shellbell – Rex with the “meat and potatoes” Albanese has pretty much nailed the strategy.
For some reason or other Long Covid is not getting much of a public policy trot in Oz.
It also seems to be getting very little media attention, so little public concern. Newscorp decides what gets put up in lights and what gets ignored. Much of the rest of our mainstream media, including the ABC, take their lead.
”
Lurkersays:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 5:32 pm
poroti says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 5:27 pm
Buce
It is not so much that Albo had a beer it is the ‘me too’ look. There are only two places in the photo op game. First and last. Besides , he went for an ‘inner city craft beered’ beer. Wot’s wrong with a bog standard Toohey’s New ?
_________________
First and foremost Albo has to hold Grayndler!
”
Are you now so assured of Federal LNP win in next election that Albanese will have hard time winning his seat?
Guytaur
Exactly what has just been discussed on The Drum. Triumphalism in Sydney contrasts with lack of vaccinations in regions.
Ven says:
Monday, October 11, 2021 at 6:50 pm
Are you now so assured of Federal LNP win in next election that Albanese will have hard time winning his seat?
__________________
I think Albo will win by +10 seats. So no, again you mistake a light hearted comment for something it wasn’t. It went over your head again didn’t it?
Just added my vaccination certificate with my Victorian checkin app. Pretty painless. Lot more secure than a PDF.
poroti
“https://www.ebay.com.au/b/Mens-Swim-Thongs/15690/bn_1664508”
Should work a treat at the uni pool 🙂
Late Riser @ #2428 Monday, October 11th, 2021 – 5:29 pm
OK. How about, the number of people forging vaccine certificates will be less than the number of children drowning in open water. The point surely is that the damage one person may cause in a community can be severe to the point of causing death.