The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
And in Victoria, the Health Minister was replaced (and subsequently resigned from the Parliament)
The reasons may now be apparent
No doubt being a Health Minister in these times is challenging – and you act on advice including because no one is all knowing
Which introduces the need to question
But it appears the foundations were not fit for purpose – even noting the conclusion by Counsel Assisting that “simply there was insufficient time to turn a plan into a policy and then deliver on that policy”
Given that start point, the need for rigorous audit was the requirement
So the Minister is gone – as the Westminster System decrees
In terms of the address of Turnbull today, he makes many very valid points
You only get your reputation once – and once lost it is lost (regardless of any mea culpa in an attempt to recover some reputation)
I used to challenge my staff with “do you have confidence in the person with whom you are dealing or are proposing to deal with?”
If the answer is “No”, the decision is no
That, and to clients, never tell me what you cannot do, always tell me what you can do
Because if you tell me what you cannot do we have a problem
Morrison holds the position of being the prime minister of Australia
It is a respected position
One you do not trash
As Turnbull mentioned “a change of government, and then it may still be difficult”
The LNP has not only been in government for 8 years, it has occupied the Treasury benches since 1948 absent Whitlam, Hawke then Keating and Rudd then Gillard (all undermined by media)
And what we see now is the result
“I followed the last US election very closely, mainly on CNN. ”
***
As did I, as you are all painfully aware of. Watched CNN for most of it. I found their analysis to be quite biased towards the Establishment Dems and the right. I guess it’s all relative though. CNN seems left wing when compared with something like Fox but when viewed on it’s own from a left wing perspective it does come across as very biased in favour of the establishment and the centre-right over the left.
I do think that may be slowly changing though as the likes of Sanders and AOC and their policies gain more and more support among the Dems and wider America. There’s still a big fight going on among the Dems over the direction of the party. The left is on the rise while the establishment are still trying to sideline them and just use them to make up the numbers.
Yes you are right that it hasn’t been easy for the left in America. It is a very right leaning country – this is the heart and soul of rampant capitalism we are talking about after all. They’re also constantly petrified of the communists under their beds, so are very susceptible to smears linking the progressive left to communist regimes which they are in fact nothing like. Many Americans think that left/progressive/socialist/anything-not-right-of-centre = communist.
Aqualung
That is very good news indeed.
I noticed that the residents of Frederic house are out and about again today, but there is only one so far that I recognise. So good to hear the news about my friend.
Scott @ #1090 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:47 am
The territories may not have a choice. The feds can override territory laws if they want, though at their political peril.
Mavis
A severe case, probably untreatable, possibly retarded by an election defeat.
Morrison will have to live with it, but should everyone suffer!
Stupidity isn’t a criminal offence, apparently.
Shellbell says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:47 pm
No lawyers required.
https://www.afp.gov.au/news-media/media-releases/afp-statement-relation-leppington-triangle-investigation
………………………………………….
Had criminal activity explained the outrageous misuse of public funds, the Minister would have been entitled to say “
Not my fault. I shall carry on”.
It seems from the afp investigation the misuse of public funds was entirely in accordance with due process in the department.
The only conclusion is that the minister has been derelict in his oversight of department spending processes. No public confidence in the minister can be held as, without a ministerial refresh, we are entitled to assume nothing has changed to prevent further waste in the future.
“I am always astonished that run-of-the-mill citizens like Paul Murray can get a soap box where people take notice of their views. And their opinions are taken seriously.”
***
Yeah, he’s just another shock jock far-right nutter who has nothing more than the gift of the gab. He just winds the right up and fills them with hatred and anger like most shock jocks do.
I found some comrades for Boerwar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC_2VpeunDo
I’m not sure if they have wombats though, maybe Pandas?
WeWantPaul at 12:37 pm
” you can’t not punish that kind of thing or it threatens to undo you plans to be the dominant world global power.” 😆 Funnily enough Rupert had the same thought..Rupert went hard to get into China. Getting in there early was seen as the way to be the ‘global super power’ when it came to media business for the Rupertarium. Rupes was very accommodating to the wishes of The Comrades back then. Crikey he even got himself a Chinese wife. But the Chinese decided in the the end to tell him to GAGF. When push came to shove poor Rupes was brushed aside like a pissant, he has been on a jihad against the Chinese ever since.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-14214309
.
Dave Sharma has decided to back Morrison’s support of “Zero by 2050” by coming up with a weak version of his own, presumably to persuade his electorate that he isn’t as hard-nosed as Morrison. A typical “diplomatic” solution.
So simon holmes à court has been having a Twitter argument with him over who is the extremist.
“guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:55 pm
@KJBar tweets
Malcolm Turnbull: “Laura, I have spoken to Emmanuel Macron. He is a friend and I have stayed in touch with him since I left office.” #NPC”
Perhaps Turnbull doesn’t expect Macron to speak to him in English.
Just wait until 6g gets here:
That hasn’t stopped experts guessing how fast 6G will be. One of the most often quoted is from Dr. Mahyar Shirvanimoghaddam from the University of Sydney, who claims 6G could deliver mind-boggling speeds of 1TB per second, or 8,000 gigabits per second. Forget one movie downloading in a few seconds from Netflix with 5G, with 6G speeds like that, in just one second you could download 142 hours of Netflix movies.
Firefox
It a sad LOL seeing Faux News people describe the sort of health care system we have as ‘radical’ , ‘extreme’ ‘socialist’ or even ‘communistic’.
Poroti
Yes. To me the way to counter war hawks is to assert diplomacy as primary. It’s why I backed the Quad even as a right wing project. If your primary goal is upholding the Sovereignty of the little guy that’s a huge shift away from war.
I don’t buy the rhetoric v the reality. See Australia East Timor.
However I believe East Timor is better off today than it was under Indonesian rule. The whole self determination thing.
6G will require lots of fibre.
Poroti, have you seen this:
https://vimeo.com/76646445
‘Too many OB/GYN’s aren’t able to practice their love with women all across the country.’ G.W Bush.
Nicko says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 2:49 pm
6G will require lots of fibre.
_______
Or satellites.
Lurker at 2:50 pm
No.I shall watch it later. Thanks. I look forward to seeing something about “the best health care system in the world” 😆
poroti says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 2:53 pm
Lurker at 2:50 pm
No.I shall watch it later. Thanks. I look forward to seeing something about “the best health care system in the world”
_______
It’s a great doco. Perhaps his best.
“That hasn’t stopped experts guessing how fast 6G will be. One of the most often quoted is from Dr. Mahyar Shirvanimoghaddam from the University of Sydney…”
Mahyar took over my teaching load when I left USyd.
1 TBS impressive…………………….or maybe not.
https://newatlas.com/telecommunications/internet-speed-record178-terabits-per-second/
There are areas where ‘wireless’ is fantastic but as a backbone for the system ? Nah.
Lurker
Before you start assuming that 6G will be an even better replacement for fiber than 5G: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Race-for-6G-South-Korea-and-China-off-to-early-leads
It appears that we’ll need a fiber network with comparable coverage to the NBN to support all those 6G base stations.
Lol no, unless you’re saying all those base stations will have satellite connections? Maybe leave the engineering to the engineers …
The Age 29/09
Set up to prevent COVID-19 from transmitting from overseas arrivals into the community, the department’s hotel quarantine program last year did the opposite, with an inquiry into the failed system linking 783 deaths during the state’s second wave back to the hotels.
In a statement published on Wednesday, WorkSafe alleged the department failed to appoint people with infection prevention and control expertise at the hotels, failed to provide security guards with appropriate infection control training and did not provide, at least initially, written instructions on how to use protective gear.
The department also did not update written instructions about how to wear masks at several of the hotels, WorkSafe said.
In all charges, the health and safety regulator said the department’s own employees, the government’s authorised officers and security guards were put at risk of contracting COVID-19 and serious illness or death.
________________
I blame the Herald Sun.
Who knows what Elon Musk has up his sleeve in relation to Starlink. I heard he his putting his groundlink stations directly into Google Data centres. Won’t need much fiber in that case.
Anyone who thinks they have prescience in this space should prepare to be surprised.
Lurker
That’d be you, who has declared the NBN will be a white elephant. If that’s not a claim to prescience, then what is?
Well 6G has nothing to do with satellite as far as I know.
Starlink is something else. Also is not intended to be a replacement to fixed line, and more for remote locations.
Lurker @ #1268 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 2:53 pm
The latency on satellites is too poor. To say nothing of the inadequate bandwidth available at usable frequency ranges once you factor in what happens if/when everyone is trying to share it, for any wireless solution.
Can’t subvert basic physics. Even if you’re Elon Musk. You either live with poor throughput, build tons and tons of ‘xG’ towers (and solve a bunch of second-order problems that will follow), or give people properly capable, wired connections for their fixed-location connectivity.
“It a sad LOL seeing Faux News people describe the sort of health care system we have as ‘radical’ , ‘extreme’ ‘socialist’ or even ‘communistic’.”
***
Exactly. Really makes you shake your head in disbelief. They even think Biden – an establishment moderate conservative who has spent his entire life propping up capitalism – is a communist! It’s absolutely nuts…
Marjorie Taylor Greene Says ‘History’ Proves Biden Committing Communist Takeover of U.S.
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has said that “history” proves that Democratic President Joe Biden is leading a “communist takeover” of the United States.
“It’s a communist regime. It’s been a communist takeover of our country, and it happened on January 21. And that is who Joe Biden is,” the Georgia Republican said during an interview on Steve Bannon’s War Room.
https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-says-history-proves-biden-committing-communist-takeover-us-1613746
Absolutely nuts.
The Liberals have made the NBN a white elephant, although it is trying to save some face by installing fibre in some FTTN areas.
No truer words were spoken.
Federal Labor should be using this clip far and wide.
“It’s the biggest failure of public administration I’ve ever witnessed” #auspol https://t.co/PNCA2vapIa
Musk… just a social freeloader..
SpaceX Starlink satellites responsible for over half of close encounters in orbit, scientist says.
Starlink satellites might soon be involved in 90% of close encounters between two spacecraft in low Earth orbit.
Uses a human resource without paying the true cost!
a r says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:03 pm
Lurker @ #1268 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 2:53 pm
Or satellites.
The latency on satellites is too poor. To say nothing of the inadequate bandwidth available at usable frequency ranges once you factor in what happens if/when everyone is trying to share it, for any wireless solution.
______________
I read that starlink was at times getting latency of 20 compared to fixed bb of 14. Who knows what can happen in a few years.
Lurker has no idea. They think wireless is some magical thing requiring no infrastructure. Instant teleportation of information anywhere in the world by magic.
A 5G network depends heavily on the NBN. 6G even more so.
Physics lets us predict this dependency. Someone who doesn’t understand the physics should probably stop talking about “prescience”.
DisplayName says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:02 pm
Lurker
Anyone who thinks they have prescience in this space should prepare to be surprised.
That’d be you, who has declared the NBN will be a white elephant. If that’s not a claim to prescience, then what is?
________
Last night you agreed that it was a white elephant with the 21 billion dollar writedown.
Lurker
Ah, one of BK’s faves, speeds ‘up to’ 😆 .
Lurker
Don’t make crap up.
poroti says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:09 pm
Lurker
I read that starlink was at times getting latency of 20 ..
Ah, one of BK’s faves, speeds ‘up to’ .
_____________________
He will just iterate and his satellites can get better and better. Leveraging free rides on his launches. I wouldn’t count him out from building something truly awesome.
”
Nsays:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 12:13 pm
NZ has outsourced their defence to Anglophone reaction…to Australia, the UK and the US. NZ, who will do nothing to provide for their own defence nor the defence of their neighbours, friends and allies, are happy to take a free ride on anyone offering one.
I for one think Keating is right. He’s not been right about everything. But he’s right about this idiotic subs deal and the dismantling of Australian sovereignty that it entails. What Morrison has done, on the pretext of defending Australian autonomy against the ambitions of China, is to cede that autonomy in semi-perpetuity to the US.
Australia is a significant net contributor to strategic peace and security. We can do a lot better for ourselves. Morrison has decided we will do a lot less.
”
As Keating said what we have done with this Nuclear sub deal is that we paid for 8 Nuclear Subs and added it to American fleet.
DisplayName says:
Tuesday, September 28, 2021 at 8:29 pm
The Coalition’s model is the white elephant.
Lurker at 3:08 pm
The ‘white elephant’ component of the NBN was installed by Malcolm and tony. A deliberate sabotage of the original plan and intentions. Remember their public boasts of such an intention ?
“Who knows what Elon Musk has up his sleeve in relation to Starlink. I heard he his putting his groundlink stations directly into Google Data centres. Won’t need much fiber in that case.”
***
Satellites aren’t all that great for delivering internet, unless it’s to remote areas. The problem with them is the high latency (or ping) which comes as a result of the huge distances the signal has to travel to make a round trip. Each time you send/receive data it has to go all the way up into space and then all the way back down again. Also, atmospheric conditions can weaken and slow down the signal and lead to a lot of packet loss. Wireless internet from cell towers also has this problem – even trees swaying in the wind can give wireless big lag spikes. Fibre is the way to go when possible.
Anyway, I have to go, and I promise not to bring it up again. The NBN has given me more aggro than I anticipated and even my beautiful poroti is angry.
I will just say that when all is said and done, perhaps we will all have wished that government would have stayed out of this and let private companies provide these services. Why else did they sell Telstra for anyway.
[‘Emmanuel Macron has refused to speak to Scott Morrison since the Prime Minister tore up Australia’s $90billion submarine deal with France.
But the French President has spoken to former leader Malcolm Turnbull to express his fury, it was revealed on Wednesday.
In a virtual speech to the National Press Club, Mr Turnbull slammed Mr Morrison for scrapping a deal to buy 12 French-made diesel-electric submarines in favour of eight nuclear-powered boats in a new pact with the US and UK.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10039905/French-president-Emmanuel-Macron-speaks-Malcolm-Turnbull-not-Scott-Morrison-submarine-deal.html
Turnbull, the de facto PM.
“I read that starlink was at times getting latency of 20 compared to fixed bb of 14. Who knows what can happen in a few years.”
***
The main obstacle is the distance, which will be hard to overcome. The signal is already traveling at the speed of light (while in a vacuum), it can’t be made to travel any faster than that.
All our money is being spent on “advisors” to prop up Morrison’s non-delivery of necessary services and his inability to make decisions. The poor get nothing, ever.
Lurker
I said the Coalition’s infrastructure (all that new copper and curbside infrastructure) is the white elephant, because it was already obsolete as soon as it was put it in, is now being replaced, and it’s the Coalition that are replacing it.
So you’re deliberately misrepresenting what I said, which I’m not all that surprised by.