The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
UK Cartoons:
There’s a fair bit of this amongst the themes:
We must remember that Scott regularly displays poor judgement, and leaves a trail of disappointed and disgruntled people in his wake.
This undoubtedly will continue to drip by drip, make his position worse the longer it goes.
The irony of Morrison announcing this wonderful defence alliance with the UK and USA, is that the UK is considering bringing in the army to distribute fuel to its citizens.
You cant make this shit up!
It’s not your call though. It’s exclusively the Prime Minister’s call. He won’t call an early election on the basis the people are sick of him and want to boot him out sooner rather than later.
The PM’s decision will be based entirely upon what he thinks best suits him politically.
Wat Tyler
Of course it is his call.
I’m happy for him to make it asap
Kean was not having it:
It’s great that Matt Canavan is selling Kodak cameras but it doesn’t count for much when the iPhone is coming. The reality is the world is changing rapidly.
We need a net-zero commitment by 2050 at least by the federal government and we should have more ambitious targets in line with what the states and territories are doing for 2030, as well.
Matt has to look after his brothers coal interests .. you never know one day he might get a payoff
Victoria
Me too. Assuming they lose of course. The sooner they go, the better.
Steve777 @ #1019 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 7:57 am
I have seen one or two ads but nothing like previous rounds. Maybe they have little to spruik???
Wat Tyler
Yes that is what I am counting on!
Cracks appearing, even from the Qld Crackpot…
Ronald Mizen
Ronald Mizen
Economics correspondent
Sep 29, 2021 – 5.00am
Queensland Coalition senator Gerard Rennick says he will cross the floor and vote against the government’s move to exclude national cabinet from information disclosure laws, saying he’s “got no time for secrecy”.
The move puts in jeopardy Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s push to overturn a decision of Federal Court Judge Richard White, who found Mr Morrison was wrong to claim national cabinet was a committee of federal cabinet.
“If you’re locking down people on the advice of an unelected health bureaucrat, people are entitled to know what’s going on in these meetings,” Senator Rennick told The Australian Financial Review.
“I don’t really know why Scott Morrison feels the need to keep it a secret. I’ve got no time for secret stuff. I’ll vote against it.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rennick-to-cross-floor-on-national-cabinet-secrecy-laws-20210928-p58vh9
”
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 9:02 am
The irony of Morrison announcing this wonderful defence alliance with the UK and USA, is that the UK is considering bringing in the army to distribute fuel to its citizens.
You cant make this shit up!
”
In AUKUS alliance only one leader has maturity to govern but is having huge problems whereas other 2 don’t want to govern but want to be in power for power sake.
If you’re around Douglas and Milko, l picked up your friend at the George this morning.
He got off at Racecourse and Gardner’s Rd East Lakes.
Good Morning
It’s good seeing the consequences of their actions coming home to roost for the government. So the question is. Are we at saving the furniture with Mr Marketing Man unable to repeat his last election performance?
I would like to think so. I just remember I thought so in 2019 along with everyone else.
My hope is that selfishness has gone out of fashion due to the pandemic. I would like to see the LNP shift on climate. It could be happening but I know progressives cannot depend on it with people like Canavan required to make sacrifices.
On the timing of the election. My guess and it’s only that is before the EU can impose carbon import taxes or a new fear campaign of the other can be dreamed up.
Ali Moore reporting 950 new cases
Victoria records 950 COVID-19 cases and seven deaths as some restrictions ease slightly
The new infections were detected from 61,322 test results processed on Tuesday, and brings the number of active cases in the state to 9,890.
There were 34,028 vaccines administered at state-run sites yesterday, with the total number including GPs and pharmacies to be confirmed later today.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-29/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-vaccine-progress/100499188
Victoria
One of the reasons I prefer the fixed term. Even with an emergency of a pandemic, election speculation would have just made things worse in NSW. It may have been enough for let her rip to win. If there was let her rip thinking of living with the virus in charge the Premier would not be calling an election.
We at least have certainty of when things are happening.
Re pre-election advertising funded by taxpayers, there is a strange TV ad seeming to imply a bright future ahead with renewables. It doesn’t say the government is doing anything (probably because they are still fighting internally).
Presumably it’s the first in a series of pre-election taxpayer funded ads on 2050 net zero?
”
With Donald Trump heading the field as the most likely Republican candidate for the presidency in 2024, America’s constitutional crisis seems far from over as new material surfaces about Trump’s effort to illegally seize power in January this year, writes Paul Kelly who says Donald Trump is a political criminal, not just a populist. Wow!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/donald-trump-is-a-political-criminal-not-just-a-populist/news-story/485a5caa3ec619063f5564db3bbd03c4
”
Is Pompous ponderous Pontificator leaving Murdoch or does it portend to the signs that Murdoch may pull plug on Murdoch?
@kylegriffin1 tweets
Obama to ABC on the reconciliation bill: “Anybody who pretends that it’s a hardship for billionaires to pay a little bit more in taxes so that a single mom gets childcare support or so that we’re doing something about climate change … that’s an argument that is unsustainable.”
From the Age blog but well put
I still find it shocking that a federal govt (federal supposedly here to serve the whole nation) would disadvantage selected states due to politics in a HEALTH crisis.
Just to have a favoured state reach vaccination targets before the ‘others’.
And no calls for accountability.
Two tier society indeed.
And another from the Age
Every man and his dog has predicted much higher cases as we come out of this .
Josh Frydenberg thinks this is great time to cut disaster payments.
Well what did we expect?? He is a liberal treasurer
citizen @ #1067 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:39 am
Yes I posted about this last night.
Scotty from Marketing is on the case.
Operation Sucked-in under way.
The voters will be putty in his hands.
And this is only the beginning.
Not long now.
There was some discussion Bludger about Milley’s behaviour.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-29/under-fierce-republican-attack-u-s-general-milley-defends-calls/100499364
Has Morrison sent Josh out today on a suicide mission to “reward “ him for his all the way with net zero 2050 push ?
I think Frydenberg is so much against lockdowns that he will do all in his power to prevent them and since he holds the purse strings, that’s what he’s using.
guytaur @ #1063 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:21 am
‘I thought so in 2019 along with everyone else.’
Ahem….not everyone.
AZ
Thanks for the cartoons.
Mundo
It’s the big Morrison gamble. As the articles in todays Dawn Patrol point out. He made promises at the Quad meeting. He has been getting the states to make headway so he has the strongest case to take to the party room. This is as big a moment in our political history as Minchin getting Tony Abbott installed as Liberal leader and wrecking climate policy.
After a 40% increase in the money supply Yellen is talking about taxing unrealized gains…
Wat Tyler @ #1054 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:05 am
‘I would like an election to be held so we could finally be rid of him and his incompetent and corrupt regime.’
Oh dear, someone’s in for big big disappointment.
Scotty will make Graham ‘Whatever it Takes’ Richardson look like Boutros Boutros-Ghali once he flips the switch to vaudeville.
The Government is airing ‘feel-good’ climate ads on TV as a green-cladding move but the material being cited is entirely actions taken by individuals or business’ and not the result of anything the government has done.
The LNP won’t be going to an election at the same time as covid support payments are being cut. They will wait. January will pass. Sometime after Australia Day, when the borders have been opened across the country and covid cases are tapering off, an election will be called, most likely for mid March. Morrison could go for late March/early April too. He will want to claim credit for shepherding the country through the worst of the pandemic. So he will play the shepherd until the storm has passed.
The government won’t be going to an election while the economy is in recession, real or technical.
”
phoenixREDsays:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 9:28 am
Victoria records 950 COVID-19 cases and seven deaths as some restrictions ease slightly
”
Ironic isn’t it that Andrews is easing restrictions as cases and deaths due to COVID are at their highest ever/ day in Victoria, whereas Victoria was subjected to strict lockdowns when cases were less than 10 and no deaths.
I know the steelys, the taylormaids and L’arses may be celebrating at the turn of events and LNP ministers may be sharpening their political knives. But that is what it is
@simonahac tweets
it’s important to remember that australia currently has a minority gov’t.
@ScottMorrisonMP’s liberal party is a coalition with @Barnaby_Joyce’s increasingly unstable national party.
they cannot agree on climate policy… ie. we have a dysfunctional hung parliament. #auspol
…of course, if just two “coalition” members had the courage to cross the floor we could have:
• @zalisteggall’s science-based net-zero bill
• @helenhainesindi’s federal integrity commission bill
…passed within the month.
let’s see who the pro-climate, pro-integrity MPs are.
Looks like Gladys is pulling ahead in the Dan/Gladys race.
Until the Liberal party withdraws from the coalition with the national party, and national party members go to the cross benches , those in the Liberal party will always be lying about any zero targets to they believe in climate change
Lurker says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 10:11 am
Looks like Gladys is pulling ahead in the Dan/Gladys race.
————–
Incorrect
NSW has been given more vaccines than any other state/territory and the cases in NSW are still high , NSW is a worry
At the daily ACT Covid press conferences, the chief minister has constantly “thanked” Frydenberg for co-operating with ACT on payments for businesses and people affected by restrictions. (ACT also provides its own payments.)
I had an idea that Victoria was doing something similar. It’s not a bad way to associate Frydenberg in peoples’ minds with payments, such that if payments cease, the federal government will cop all the blame.
The other states/territories shouldn’t open to NSW ,until 2022 because of the NSW lib/nats incompetence
The QLD state LNP is making the same fatal mistake as the Victorian liberal party ,wanting the state government to allow the virus to spread in QLD , by following NSW
I think Morrison has been marked down by the public for the Pfizer bungle. As for the Premiers, I don’t think there will be too much negative impact on their re-election chances.
Victoria has recorded 950 new locally acquired cases, a significant jump on yesterday’s numbers.
Sadly, seven people died overnight.
A funny funny article
DeathSantis’s policy cred takes a dump because he thinks China’s less dictatorial than Australia
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2054971
Desperate to get MSM to ay attention away from his farcical COVID policy, Ron DeSantis tries to triangulate a strawman in Australia. His PR flak Christina Pushaw demonstrates how to bring a knife to a gun fight when she trades pies with Daniel Dresner. The Tweet-fight is amusing, if only to show how wedded DeSantis is to his draconian vaccine policies in Florida, having killed more people than the Vietnam War. Trumpian isolation revisited as DeSantis thinks the US should sever diplomatic ties to Australia. A very weird triangulation to suck up to the French over being shunned for their failed submarine sale to Australia, and hence a criticism of the Biden administration. A bit too oblique for Florida Man.
Is the Land Down Under freer than China?
Gov. Ron DeSantis isn’t so sure anymore.
Australia is finally nearing the end of lockdowns after more than a year and a half of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that’s in stark contrast to places like Florida, which DeSantis effectively fully reopened in September.
The Australian military was also deployed this summer to enforce lockdowns in Sydney, the nation’s largest city.
Sydney has been in lockdown since June 26 and Melbourne since Aug. 5. The capital territory of Canberra locked down on Aug. 12 after one positive test stemming from Sydney emerged.
Speaking at the International Boatbuilders Exhibition in Tampa on Tuesday, DeSantis lamented the strict pandemic approach from one of the United States’ closest allies.
“That’s not a free country. It’s not a free country at all,” DeSantis said. “In fact, I wonder why we would still have the same diplomatic relations when they’re doing that. Is Australia freer than communist China right now? I don’t know. The fact that that’s even a question tells you something has gone dramatically off the rails with
Lurkersays:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 10:11 am
Looks like Gladys is pulling ahead in the Dan/Gladys race.
________________
Dan spent too much time blaming everybody else instead of getting on with the job.
Yes, what did happen to the Coalition’s wall to wall “if you have nothing to hide then you have nothing to fear” when they wanted to spy on us ?
Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 10:31 am
Sadly, seven people died overnight.
————————————
This is the point what the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units are sickly ignoring
The deaths and people who are at risk of getting very sick , there hasnt been a 0 death day in NSW for a while
Dog’s Breakfast @ #1081 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 9:58 am
Doesn’t matter.
The voters will lap it up.
It’s the vibe.
It’s called marketing.
Scotty’s from there.
“Payne and the Prime Minister were bedazzled by the grand reception they were afforded in Washington – a reception any strategic client of the United States would have received had they turned over control of their armed forces to the US. But in our case, turning over effective control of our foreign policy into the bargain. Any prime minister that shops Australia’s prerogatives and interests to another power will always be feted and celebrated by that power. And this is precisely what Scott Morrison and Marise Payne experienced.
The US submarine decision was not just about under-sea warfare, it was about donating eight submarines paid for by us to the command of the United States, as an integral part of its Pacific fleet. Try and think of another country that would do anything this submissive.”
——
Sigh! imagine debating issues of substance.
It seems such a long time since we had real politicians, rather than shallow “marketers” and Quislings!
Quite happy to outsource the last of my comments on China and the media efforts to paint China as the big bad guy, and the publics almost desperate need to buy this spin, to a former model, comedian, who is perhaps best known as a recorder of reaction videos to MAFS, still he nails it:
https://youtu.be/jEt9uxuKje8