Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September

Newspoll finds the Labor swing approaching double digits in Western Australia, more modest movements in New South Wales and Victoria, and a relatively bright picture for the Coalition in Queensland.

The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:

• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.

• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.

• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.

• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.

• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.

From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.

The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September”

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  1. I assume at some point (10am?) they’ll put up a link to the voting page…

    Australian bird of the year 2021: poll returns as climate change threatens beloved species

    The shortlist features some birds hit by bushfires and a few urban ‘bullies’ that dominate as cities grow
    * The Guardian/BirdLife Australia 2021 bird of the year poll begins on Monday

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/australian-bird-of-the-year-2021-poll-returns-as-climate-change-threatens-beloved-species

    How to vote in the 2021 bird of the year

    Fifty birds. Two weeks. Only one winner.

    The voting system in 2021 has changed. The competition kicks off on Monday 27 September with a lineup of 50 Australian native birds. The bottom five birds are eliminated at the end of each weekday, with everyone able to vote again in the next round each day. You can vote again on the 45 most popular birds and so on. You have one vote each day, but it doesn’t have to go to the same bird. Eliminations will be paused over the weekend when the vote count will be hidden. Voting will go dark on Thursday 7 October for the final 10 birds and voting will close at midnight. All votes from the early rounds are discarded before the final count. The winning bird will be the one that receives the most votes in a simple poll of the final 10 on Thursday 7 October. The winner is announced on Friday 8 October.

  2. The LNP will need the same “marketing magic” to occur in the last two weeks before an election as occurred at the last election.
    That last final blitz before an election is very Morrison, the only member of the LNP team with nothing to lose.
    It was the “convirus that done it” will be the cry!

  4. The Liberals are in deep deep trouble with Chisholm. They have Gladys Liu who is very pro-China and a fair chunk of the Chinese population in Chisholm is actually Hong Konger. Plus the rhetoric from the government is basically anti-China, so it is going to be a very confused messaging there. Even if the polls hadn’t changed I would have written it off anyway.

    The massive population growth in La Trobe is likely to have reduced the margin there as well too.

    Smith quitting will probably reduce the personal vote in Casey too.

  6. Morning Squires,

    Further to my claim last night: that Fed MPs are exempt from travel restrictions.

    I knew I’d read somewhere about WA’s exemptions, and assumed (possibly incorrectly) that all States would have similar exemptions.

    Anyway, here are WA’s exemptions:

    Those exempt from the ban on entering WA include:

    certain senior government officials;
    certain active military personnel;
    Commonwealth parliament members;
    people fulfilling duties under Commonwealth law;
    people carrying out specialist responsibilities for time critical maintenance where the skills are not available in WA — excludes FIFO;
    people coming to WA at the chief health officer’s request;
    people responsible for transport freight or logistics;
    people approved by the state emergency coordinator or an authorised officer — this category includes compassionate reasons, such as WA residents who recently travelled to Victoria and need to return home.
    https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/covid19-restriction-checker/domestic-travel/wa

    Hope that helps.

  7. Set your timeline to zero,the only narrative the ABC will be propagating is SM is a net zero by 2050 warrior and the only thing holding back the change is the nationals.

    The reality is there are 68 votes in the Labor party who’s policy is 2050.

  8. If Morrison could get the AFL to make Perth the permanent home for the Grand Final, would that fix things?
    (Ignoring the obvious problem in Vic)

  9. Soldiers are likely to be put on notice to drive petrol tankers to forecourts within days as motorists continue to panic buy, The Times has been told.

    90% of UK petrol stations are dry.

  10. Of the 29 people who died at home in NSW, most were in Sydney’s western suburbs and only 13 were known to NSW Health and being called regularly to check in on their health.

    The remaining 16 were only diagnosed with COVID-19 post-mortem.

    It is not clear why so many people are dying at home, and it has become a feature of the current outbreak in Sydney and in Melbourne, where nine people have died, all in the city’s northern suburbs. Four of them were diagnosed with COVID-19 post-mortem.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/australians-dying-at-home-with-covid-19-sydney-melbourne/100482978

    I guess this shows the value in regular testing, esp if you live in one of the hotspot areas and are unvaccinated.

    Another failure of the federal govt is not escalating the availability of home testing. If people didn’t have to make the effort to queue at a testing hub it would be so much easier to be diagnosed and get the help they need.

  11. Britain is finding – as Australia has when it comes to fruit pickers – that when you get rid of the migrants who were ‘taking our jobs’, there’s no one left to do the jobs the migrants were taking.

  13. Labor’s response to a Morrison/LNP’s net zero in 2050 will be “what about the coal jobs in Qld ?”.
    Morrison will not dare upset the mob from the tropics. That will be his used by date.
    Morrison will promise the world to achieve everything by 2050 while also promising to keep and increase coal jobs.
    But he won’t actually do anything.
    The obvious contradiction doesn’t worry Morrison and more worrying, doesn’t worry the voters!

  15. PM @ScottMorrisonMP tells the @westaustralian he may not attend the Glasgow climate conference.

    Of course not. It would interfere with election campaigning.

  16. Jaeger @ #1 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 5:43 am

    I assume at some point (10am?) they’ll put up a link to the voting page…

    Australian bird of the year 2021: poll returns as climate change threatens beloved species

    The shortlist features some birds hit by bushfires and a few urban ‘bullies’ that dominate as cities grow
    * The Guardian/BirdLife Australia 2021 bird of the year poll begins on Monday

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/australian-bird-of-the-year-2021-poll-returns-as-climate-change-threatens-beloved-species

    How to vote in the 2021 bird of the year

    Fifty birds. Two weeks. Only one winner.

    The voting system in 2021 has changed. The competition kicks off on Monday 27 September with a lineup of 50 Australian native birds. The bottom five birds are eliminated at the end of each weekday, with everyone able to vote again in the next round each day. You can vote again on the 45 most popular birds and so on. You have one vote each day, but it doesn’t have to go to the same bird. Eliminations will be paused over the weekend when the vote count will be hidden. Voting will go dark on Thursday 7 October for the final 10 birds and voting will close at midnight. All votes from the early rounds are discarded before the final count. The winning bird will be the one that receives the most votes in a simple poll of the final 10 on Thursday 7 October. The winner is announced on Friday 8 October.

    I hope the Pelican is on the list. They have done a marvelous job of surviving human habitation in their environment up here on the Central Coast.

  18. Confessions @ #15 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 6:51 am

    PM @ScottMorrisonMP tells the @westaustralian he may not attend the Glasgow climate conference.

    Of course not. It would interfere with election campaigning.

    And he’d have to be in the same room as people who were demanding he do something concrete, and not fudgy, about Global Heating and Climate Change.

  20. Morrison has a plan.
    Morrison will assume the identity of a jigsaw piece, but everyday a different piece.
    The idea is that it will all come to together on election day (whenever that is).
    The LNP must completely trust ” the liar from the Shire”

  21. Evidence of humans in North America during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Despite a plethora of archaeological research over the past century, the timing of human migration into the Americas is still far from resolved. In a study of exposed outcrops of Lake Otero in White Sands National Park in New Mexico, Bennett et al. reveal numerous human footprints dating to about 23,000 to 21,000 years ago. These finds indicate the presence of humans in North America for approximately two millennia during the Last Glacial Maximum south of the migratory barrier created by the ice sheets to the north. This timing coincided with a Northern Hemispheric abrupt warming event, Dansgaard-Oeschger event 2, which drew down lake levels and allowed humans and megafauna to walk on newly exposed surfaces, creating tracks that became preserved in the geologic record. —AMS

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg7586

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Queensland Deputy Premier Steven Miles has criticised the Australian prime minister for giving people false hope about the state opening its borders in time for Christmas. Speaking to the media on Sunday, Mr Miles said Scott Morrison needed to focus on his job instead of discussing “what should happen in Queensland in 90 days’ time”, reports Jocelyn Carter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/deputy-premier-hits-out-at-pm-over-qld-border-opening-for-christmas-20210926-p58uvb.html
    Darren Chester’s decision to remove himself from the Nationals federal party room, albeit temporarily at this stage, is a reflection of how Balkanised the junior Coalition partner has become, writes Rob Harris who tells us that the departure might be least of Joyce’s troubles right now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chester-s-departure-might-be-least-of-joyce-s-troubles-right-now-20210926-p58uvg.html
    Katherine Murphy tells us Matt Canavan has signalled he is prepared to defy his party room if a majority accepts a commitment to net zero, as his Victorian colleague Darren Chester – who supports an aspirational mid-century target – will take a break from the National party.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/26/i-havent-even-begun-to-fight-matt-canavan-to-defy-nationals-party-room-if-majority-back-net-zero
    Scott Morrison has a month to win the Coalition partner’s backing, and it’s going to cost him money, money, money, predicts Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-must-herd-nationals-through-the-gate-on-net-zero-20210926-p58uvm
    Scott Morrison will return home to a fight on two fronts – and one could prove ruinous, writes Katherine Murphy. She says replacing Christian Porter is just the start of the PM’s problems, as climate jostling in the National party over net zero threatens to spill into all-out warfare.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/26/morrison-will-return-home-to-a-fight-on-two-fronts-and-one-could-prove-ruinous
    Alan Kohler says that Australia’s net-zero target must include legislation. Without it, he says – if net zero is just an intention – it will be meaningless.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/09/27/net-zero-legislation-alan-kohler/
    Swift action for a coal-free future cannot come fast enough, urges the SMH editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/swift-action-for-coal-free-future-cannot-come-fast-enough-20210926-p58uv9.html
    Denis Shannahan says that Scott Morrison is preparing an integrated climate change plan to more swiftly transition Australia’s energy exports from fossil fuels towards new low emissions technologies and cleaner energy sources to avoid the nation being left behind as the world moves towards a net zero future.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/prime-minister-scott-morrisons-clean-energy-export-plan/news-story/239b6706762450519ead7d3a39c5d786
    John Lord declares that the National Party has no environmental credibility whatsoever.
    https://theaimn.com/the-national-party-has-no-environmental-credibility-whatsoever/
    Former finance minister Mathias Cormann is set to become a key figure in a push to create a global carbon pricing regime, a move that would confound his many detractors in the climate-change movement, writes Hans van Leeuwen.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/cormann-leads-push-for-global-carbon-price-20210925-p58uo5
    A government move to shield national cabinet meetings from scrutiny should be “killed off”, says independent senator Rex Patrick, as he launches a counter challenge to block the last-minute changes. It comes on the eve of a Senate hearing into the contentious legislation that would block the leaders’ meetings from being subject to Freedom of Information disclosures – something that has concerned government accountability experts. Writes Josh Butler.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/09/26/national-cabinet-secrecy-inquiry/
    Nancy Pelosi’s praise for Scott Morrison should terrify Labor, says Sean Kelly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/nancy-pelosi-s-praise-for-scott-morrison-should-terrify-labor-20210925-p58uqh.html
    John McCarthy argues that, with AUKUS, we are moving fast from being a country with the self-respect of true independence.
    https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-we-are-moving-fast-from-being-a-country-with-the-self-respect-of-true-independence/
    Councils and NSW Health have defended the decision to allow unvaccinated people to access outdoor pools when they reopen on Monday, amid community concerns about the spread of COVID-19.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-too-risky-pools-to-reopen-amid-community-concern-20210926-p58uv1.html
    Associate professor in political philosophy, Holly Lawford-Smith, argues why vaccine mandates must be a last resort.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-vaccine-mandates-must-be-a-last-resort-20210924-p58uew.html
    Professor Stephen Alomes explains how the Doherty model has been politically weaponised.
    https://johnmenadue.com/how-the-doherty-model-has-been-politically-weaponised/
    Meanwhile, the New Daily tells us that vaccine passports for fully jabbed people will be trialled in parts of regional Victoria, testing how to enforce rules that will enable double-dosed patrons to take part in a “vaccinated economy”. The series of trials will begin across some regional Victorian businesses and events from October 11 in areas with high vaccinations and low virus such as Buloke, Pyrenees, Bass Coast, Bendigo, East Gippsland and Warrnambool.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/09/27/coronavirus-victoria-vaccine-trial/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    Rachel Clun reports that home COVID-19 testing will become widely available as soon as the medical regulator approves its use, with the federal government eager for self-testing to become another layer in the community’s protection against the pandemic as the country opens up.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/additional-protection-of-home-covid-testing-expected-before-christmas-20210924-p58ugg.html
    Health experts say the smaller and sooner-than-expected peak in severe COVID-19 infections in NSW should be replicated in Victoria as better-than-expected vaccine effectiveness pushes against modellers’ worst-case scenarios, writes Tom Burton.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/vaccines-capped-nsw-s-hospitalisations-it-s-victoria-s-turn-next-20210926-p58uu3
    The fallout from the cancellation of the nation’s Attack-class submarines contract has widened, with American defence giant Lockheed Martin – which was to have built the boats’ combat systems – issuing termination letters to its subcontractors. The move affects large defence contractors such as Thales Australia, as well as dozens of small and medium enterprises, including 12 named as Lockheed Martin partners on the program on the day before the French-designed submarines were cancelled, writes Ben Packham.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence-giants-hit-by-submarines-blowback/news-story/2cc5d64decb80b6b31bca94d90fb2d10
    Morrison’s tanking of the Australian-French submarine deal in favour of the AUKUS pact signals to the world that Australia is not interested in being a real sovereign nation, writes Peter Henning.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-sub-par-performance-tanks-australias-national-identity,15555
    The nation’s economists are realising that what we need is not smaller government but better government – government that delivers value for money. That means stopping the waste of taxpayers’ money. But identifying genuine waste is harder than you may think, explains Ross Gittins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/budget-wisdom-keep-your-options-open-and-don-t-cry-over-sunk-costs-20210926-p58uu5.html
    Catholic historian Paul Collins writes that Australia is an object lesson in what not to do when planning church renewal as he looks a the upcoming plenary session of the Catholic church. He is not impressed with them shying away from the key issues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/historic-gathering-with-bland-agenda-unlikely-to-stem-decay-in-the-catholic-church-20210926-p58ut1.html
    Furniture, televisions, electronics, toys, sporting goods and food are facing months of delays as port strikes across the country, triggered by a worsening dispute over union demands for more pay and control of hiring workers, threaten to cripple imports ahead of Christmas and further strain supply chains in the middle of state lockdowns, reports the AFR.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/port-strikes-threaten-to-cripple-christmas-20210926-p58usq
    Decades of economic expansion have come at the expense of developing nations and a tremendous cost to the planet. Degrowth is a healthier future option, writes Erin Remblance.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-value-of-a-degrowth-economy-our-planet-would-be-richer-for-it,15546
    Foodco, the franchisor behind Jamaica Blue and Muffin Break cafes, is signing up franchisees to failed sites despite a decline in both businesses, in a bid to bolster its profits, writes Cara Waters. What IS it about franchisors?
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/entrepreneurship/they-walk-out-broken-people-jamaica-blue-and-muffin-break-push-failed-stores-20210922-p58ttn.html
    Hundreds of soldiers could be scrambled to deliver fuel to petrol stations running dry across the country due to panic buying and a shortage of drivers under an emergency plan expected to be considered by Boris Johnson on Monday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/26/boris-johnson-to-consider-using-army-to-supply-petrol-stations
    Biden must act quickly to save his presidency, opines Simon Tisdall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/26/old-man-in-a-hurry-biden-must-act-quickly-to-save-his-presidency

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Mark David


    Peter Broelman

    Jim Pavlidis

    Warren Brown

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US







  28. • The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.

    I suspect this swing to the ALP in NSW is hiding the true trend. The white hot anger at GladysB’s declaration of 12 LGAs for harsher penalties- some like working rights still in place – compared with the looser measures in Liberal heartland, means the seats within or partially so the GladysGhetto are at higher risk of being lost.

    The Liberal leads in these seats is within sight of a S/W and Western Sydney backlash against being treated so poorly by GladysB – with Morrison cheering on the stigmatisation and unfairness.

    Lindsay 5.0
    Banks 6.3
    Reid 3.2

  29. La Palma update:

    INVOLCAN @involcan

    Updated information: deformation recorded by the Canary Islands Geodetic Network over the last 24 hours shows deflation, indicating a decrease in pressure within the Cumbre Vieja magmatic system.

  31. sprocket_ at 7:03 am

    What happened to the mooted Greens triumph in Germany?

    Fully 85.5% of the electorate appear to have rejected them..

    A whopping 76% rejected Mutti Merkel’s party, what losers. You’ve been hanging out in ‘two party’ land for too long 🙂

  32. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Monday, September 27, 2021 at 6:34 am

    Soldiers are likely to be put on notice to drive petrol tankers to forecourts within days as motorists continue to panic buy, The Times has been told.

    90% of UK petrol stations are dry.’
    ___________________________
    Boris is a naughty boy.

  33. The Greens are doing in Germany what they are doing in Australia.
    Cannibalizing the left vote at the expense of the overall left vote.

  34. J
    Thanks for your posts on Palma.
    Looking at the dimensions of the crater, the current eruption/lava flow is a baby compared to some previous event(s).

  35. Albanese knows where the work has to be done. And if Morrison doesn’t attend the Glasgow summit, all & sundry will know that he’s sought the guidance of his diety and has been told, it’ll be sorted. The only other possibility is that he intends to visit Yarralumla.

  37. NSW is the only state not to have legalised assisted dying. Independent Alex Greenwich will introduce a private member’s bill next month.

    Senior NSW minister Andrew Constance says Liberal MPs should be allowed a conscience vote on voluntary assisted dying and the issue finalised this year in a significant move which will further deepen internal divisions.

    NSW Labor leader Chris Minns has said his MPs would be given a conscience vote.

    Ms Berejiklian will face internal opposition within her parliamentary party if she allows a conscience vote, with Corrections Minister Anthony Roberts warning that his fellow conservative MPs were deeply opposed to the bill.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/constance-wants-conscience-vote-on-assisted-dying-laws-20210926-p58uw8.html

  38. When looking at the electoral calendar, the months of October and November are known as Summit Season. There is APEC, the G20, East Asia Summit and this year, the Glasgow Climate Change COP.

    A deft leader, comfortable with foreign matters and adept at diplomacy, would lap up the opportunity to parade on the global stage, rub shoulders with the high and mighty. And advance Australia’s interests.

    Only a fool would call an election in those months for callous political calculations.

  39. Re Griff @6:46.
    ”PM @ScottMorrisonMP tells the @westaustralian he may not attend the Glasgow climate conference. #auspol pic.twitter.com/Aazd1qJQ6o”

    What – and face an audience that won’t believe his bullshit p? Possibly have to face media not controlled by his friends or cowed into compliance? Who’d have thought?

  42. Thanks for your posts on Palma.
    Looking at the dimensions of the crater, the current eruption/lava flow is a baby compared to some previous event(s).

    I’m curious to see what the post-eruption “satellite” photos look like.
    Google Maps is doing my head in – the image is “upside down”, so the lighting inverts the perceived height of features. This photo taken from the ISS in 2008 doesn’t have that problem:


    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/8827/isla-de-la-palma-canary-islands

  43. confessions

    They backed Clive’s attacks on our sovereignty.

    And for some reason ScoMo keeps pushing a very NSW centric narrative regarding the pandemic. One that bears little resemblance to the lived experience of people from states without covid circulating.

  46. Joyce and Canavan are the obvious delegates, with Bandt to provide light relief, and with Christensen going along to provide logistic and entertainment support.

  47. I’m interested in how Canavan is going to “fight”. Appear on TV even more? Threaten to resign? Start a sub-species of the Nats? Stand as a representative of Qld in House of Reps? Try to take Barnaby’s place as Leader?

  48. Chris Bowen
    @Bowenchris
    · 4m
    The energy chaos continues. Morrison spruiks a “clean energy export plan” on the front pages and the Resources Minister (pretty relevant to energy) Keith Pitt tells @RNBreakfast “I haven’t seen that plan”.

  49. My question is whether there is a hot spot, and if so, whether the island is still substantially over the hot spot?

    Yes, the Canary Islands are a hotspot volcanic chain like the Hawai`ian Islands.

    The hotspot is somewhere near La Palma and El Hierro at the western end of the island chain:

    El Hierro had a submarine volcanic eruption about 10 years ago just off it’s southern coast:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932012_El_Hierro_eruption

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