The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
I didn’t know that Christensen was the catalyst.
Greensborough Growler @ #40 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 7:33 am
https://www.smh.com.au/national/historic-gathering-with-bland-agenda-unlikely-to-stem-decay-in-the-catholic-church-20210926-p58ut1.html
What would you do, GG? Bring back George Pell to add his dynamism and commitment to empathetic healing? That Melbourne solution was a big hit.
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Monday, September 27, 2021 at 7:10 am
zoomster @ #11 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 4:44 am
Britain is finding – as Australia has when it comes to fruit pickers – that when you get rid of the migrants who were ‘taking our jobs’, there’s no one left to do the jobs the migrants were taking.
The hotel industry will be struggling too.
NDIS so many on Covid visas.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, September 27, 2021 at 6:34 am
Soldiers are likely to be put on notice to drive petrol tankers to forecourts within days as motorists continue to panic buy, The Times has been told.
90% of UK petrol stations are dry.
”
Will this affect a person who has electric car in UK?
I should have said “presumably”; it’s a bit more complicated than that as all the islands except perhaps La Gomera are still considered active:
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/canary-islands.html
If those in the National party who claim are against the 2050 target , will there be a new national party leader before the upcoming federal election
Steelydan
What they are finding is that the locals do not tolerate the exploitation that those ‘guest workers’ are subjected to by arseholes who built their business model around such exploitation. A business model you’d be right on board with.
sprocket_ @ Monday, September 27, 2021 at 7:58 am
I can’t see what you are seeing. This is a review of existing data. AZ vaccination (with an accelerated dosing schedule in particular – how we ended up deploying it), is clearly inferior to either Pfizer or Moderna. I can’t see much data in this review for the durability of the response. Perhaps you are suggesting that the jury is still out for mixed vaccine dosing strategies? I am with you on that.
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Monday, September 27, 2021 at 7:10 am
zoomster @ #11 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 4:44 am
Britain is finding – as Australia has when it comes to fruit pickers – that when you get rid of the migrants who were ‘taking our jobs’, there’s no one left to do the jobs the migrants were taking.
The hotel industry will be struggling too.’
_________________________
Britain is finding what Australia is finding. Both Britain and Australia used to host large native rural workforces but when employers are allowed ruthlessly to exploit foreign gig workers you exclude local workers. Result: Australia has over a million unemployed and underemployed workers.
Thanks BK!
There has been a lot of commentary recently to suggest that Pfizer will require a booster as efficacy wanes after 6 to 8 months.
AZ not so much.
porotisays:
Monday, September 27, 2021 at 8:11 am
Steelydan
Britain is finding – as Australia has when it comes to fruit pickers – that when you get rid of the migrants who were ‘taking our jobs’, there’s no one left to do the jobs the migrants were taking.
What they are finding is that the locals do not tolerate the exploitation that those ‘guest workers’ are subjected to by arseholes who built their business model around such exploitation. A business model you’d be right on board with.
Not my comment mate.
However, Unemployed Australians, lets say second generation on, do not change adult diapers for any money and the majority believe cleaning is below them. This is just a fact. Talk to anyone in the industry, not that you would know any business owners other than your local Barista owner who makes a late to die for.
porotisays:
Monday, September 27, 2021 at 8:11 am
Steelydan
Britain is finding – as Australia has when it comes to fruit pickers – that when you get rid of the migrants who were ‘taking our jobs’, there’s no one left to do the jobs the migrants were taking.
What they are finding is that the locals do not tolerate the exploitation that those ‘guest workers’ are subjected to by arseholes who built their business model around such exploitation. A business model you’d be right on board with.
Not my comment mate.
However, Unemployed Australians, lets say second generation on, do not change adult diapers for any money and the majority believe cleaning is below them. This is just a fact. Talk to anyone in the industry, not that you would know any business owners other than your local Barista owner who makes a late to die for.
He has been out and about on social media getting the message out .
——
Julian HillMP
WHY? Ask yourself WHY, this billionaire Clive Palmer is spending millions?
⚠️ It’s a giant SCAM to get Scott Morrison re-elected!
⚠️ A Vote for Clive Palmer is a Vote for Scott Morrison.
PART 2 of 3
#auspol https://t.co/Aadnpzxfze
Here’s a request for some corruption, aka pork barrelling, that will be used to sell ‘nett zero’ to the Nats etc. A very large barrel of pork that coal and gas people will no doubt be able to access for their ‘brown’ and ‘blue’ hydrogen projects.
.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/industry-calls-for-19bn-net-zero-fund-to-pump-up-hydrogen/news-story/b9f144312c301928f9821fd61704be7c
Beware the Sunny Uplands vision for Blue Hydrogen:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/blue-hydrogen-20-worse-burning-coal-study-states-180978451/#:~:text=Blue%20hydrogen%20is%20derived%20from,captured%20and%20stored%20deep%20underground.&text=In%20addition%2C%20carbon%20dioxide%20is%20a%20byproduct%20of%20blue%20hydrogen%20production.
In a prefect world the Murdochs and their blight on Western civilization would be sued out of existence.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/sep/26/spice-girl-among-stars-to-begin-phone-hacking-claims-against-murdoch-empire
ABC has posted two articles this morning on NSW and Vic opening up.
The NSW article is little more than a repeat of what Gladys said “”I know that everybody is keen to book their holidays, their time away,” she said. “In NSW it is definitely safe to book for Christmas, to think ahead for the future but also to definitely look at November as a month where you can start planning.”
However the Vic article is full of negative comments by the Chamber of Commerce and good old Tim Smith the “Shadow Minister for COVID-19 recovery coordination”.
Fairly normal MSM bias I suppose.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/nsw-pools-reopen-construction-at-full-capacity-60-per-cent-jabs/100492562“>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/nsw-pools-reopen-construction-at-full-capacity-60-per-cent-jabs/100492562
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/victoria-covid-vaccine-economy-pandemic-infectious-disease-/100492882
The Liberal Party published their findings into their result in the WA State election
It is worth reading
Now for the rest of Australia to join the WA public
Victoria @ Monday, September 27, 2021 at 8:24 am
I shall not comment on the commentary. I will say that the mRNA vaccines appear to have greater initial protection against overall infection which wanes over a few months. This is bad for transmission – there will be an increase of mild or asymptomatic infection. Hence the spikes in cases that countries are seeing when they relinquish restrictions. AZ doesn’t provide quite as good cover initially, but it wanes less over this time period. NB:- they only modelled out to 90 days (3 months). For details, see https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237.abstract
But what about serious disease i.e. hospitalisation or even death?
The good news is that this looks more promising even past 3 months. Here is a recent case-control study preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.12.21263448v1.full-text
Here is what they said:”The efficacy of two vaccine doses against severe COVID-19
in the most recent time windows is around 92% and does not differ between AstraZeneca and mRNA products. Efficacy against the broader category of hospitalised or fatal COVID-19 remains slightly lower for the AstraZeneca vaccine than for mRNA vaccines (88% versus 91%)”
So both vaccines start off well against severe COVID. This is delta variant evidence so that is good. What next?
“Efficacy declines rapidly during the first two months after the second dose but more slowly thereafter. For the broad category of hospitalised or fatal COVID-19, the results support a model in which the efficacy is the sum of a waning effect with half-life of a few weeks and a time-invariant effect, declining towards a constant value of about 80% over the first few months.”
What does this mean? Well they modelled out to about 200 days and they see efficacy for both mRNA and AZ vaccines reach a plateau at about 80% effectiveness against hospitalisation or death. The need for booster shots for protection against severe COVID is not required for at least in the first 6 months, and possibly longer.
Victoria records 705 new COVID-19 cases as Geelong and Surf Coast leave lockdown
The cases were detected from 51,252 test results processed on Sunday.
At state-run sites, 29,657 doses of the vaccine were administered.
The City of Greater Geelong and Surf Coast Shire left lockdown at 11:59pm Sunday, with only metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire in lockdown.
Victoria is expected to reach its target of having 80 per cent of the population aged 16 and older vaccinated with at least one dose this week.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/victoria-new-covid-cases-geelong-melbourne-lockdown/100493364
Someone asked how Matt Canavan would ‘fight’?
Apparently, smart alec statements to the press is his weapon of choice..
“The National Party in the past at least has been against net zero emissions,” he told radio station 2GB.
“What
has said is that he wants to make sure the party room has an opportunity to discuss these matters.
“In our party room we provide people the liberty to take their own positions.”
Mr Canavan labelled net zero a “utopian target” and “about as silly as zero COVID
705 cases for Victoria today
One nutter to be replaced by an even bigger nutter –
Morgan – on Sky’s trashy weekday nightly line up. Those who don’t subscribe to Foxtel can view dear Piers on YouTube not long after his show screens live. I think it’ll also be available on free-to-air (Ch.53) for regional viewers.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/murdoch-s-succession-birthday-complete-with-family-no-show-20210926-p58uwc.html
(from Guardian updates at 8:41)
Wonder why?
A German look at the elections
https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-move-over-grand-coalition-germany-wants-change/a-59318731
citizen at 9:09 am
Because he’s………..
Pell has been back, ensuring the manipulable Bishop holds the party line.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/09/25/exclusive-george-pell-returned-australia-ahead-church-reforms
($)
Wise words from Aussie muso, Ben lee:
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/music/they-need-me-ben-lee-comes-home-to-save-australia-from-itself-20210923-p58u7l.html
I picked up on the fact that Wellness advocates were prime subjects for those with authoritarian tendencies to co-opt them, years ago. #Freedumb
Blue Hydrogen – the greatest fossil fuel scam in history?
https://youtu.be/2EA4tDYwNYo
The WA Division of the Liberal Party released their Report on the reasons for the result of the WA State election
It makes an interesting read
Now for the rest of Australia to come to the same realisation as did the voters of WA
C@t
I have already mentioned friend of my sibling who has contracted covid and is now on a ventilator?
He is in his 40s.
Very fit. He said there was no way he was going to put the vaccine poison into his body.
He said he was healthy enough to fight it off naturally.
Yet he is now fighting for his life.
sprocket_ @ #24 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 7:03 am
If you slice it that way, then at least 75% of the electorate appears to have rejected every single party.
The Gernam greens are going to get 100+ seats. Seems like a pretty good triumph. Might even allow a left-wing government to form, without the CDU involved at all.
victoria
Instead of all his adverts about lockdowns and ivermectin, Craig Kelly could have spent his money on telling people that Covid isn’t the same as flu.
I must be dreaming.
Victoria @ #61 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 8:24 am
The commentary is incorrect, at least with respect to the “AZ not so much” part. People are misinterpreting a study that shows Pfizer’s efficacy decreasing more quickly than AZ’s over time. What they consistently neglect to point out is that Pfizer’s decline in efficacy begins from a much higher starting point.
Yes, it declines faster. No, it doesn’t decline to the point where someone vaccinated with Pfizer actually has less protection than someone vaccinated with AZ.
Everyone will need boosters, regardless of what they were vaccinated with.
UK Cartoons:
Lizzie
Keep on dreaming. Lol!
Victoria @ #81 Monday, September 27th, 2021 – 9:25 am
Victoria, I was talking last week to the wife of a surgeon friend about the latest at St Elsewhere’s, where elective surgery is on hold, only urgent cases are done after a specific application process, and they are fully occupied managing patients from the campus public hospital. Her nursing friend has been coopted into Covid care, which she is finding extremely taxing, and her only comment about the disease was: “Don’t Get It”
(none of this is news, I know, but always sobering)
As I have said many times: beware the Climate Epiphany.
Let us not forget the Free Set Of Steak Knives:
● Barnarby Joyce transformed by the media into a hero who led his party into the 21st century,
● Journos telling us that, “Life’s not fair”, “good intentions don’t make a policy”, “though Labor fought the good fight” etc., the reality is that only the Coalition can deliver meaningful action on Climate Change.
● This is too important to play politics with, like pointing out that Morrison once brought a lump of coal into Parliament.
Speaking of coal, as the coal mining barons will be against it, don’t expect Morrison to be too serious. Nothing will happen except the announcement.
And don’t expect anyone in the media to question too closely how it’s all going to be paid for, if indeed any numbers are given out by Morrison at all.
Remember the half a dozen versions of the NEG? Not once did any journalist say “Whoa there!” to the costings, timings, the actual strategy or the verbal convolutions necessary to get even to the announcement stage. They all just pretended to swallow it whole – all the various versions – and cheered “Hooray! We’re saved!” Each time.
The same will happen with the “2050” target.
Observer says:
Monday, September 27, 2021 at 9:23 am
The WA Division of the Liberal Party released their Report on the reasons for the result of the WA State election
It makes an interesting read
Is there a link?
What are their main conclusions?
a r
Thanks. From what I have seen, the commentary has focused on Pfizer probably due to the Israel experience.
Morning all. I can but agree with others that “Blue Hydrogen” is indeed a scam. I have been saying so for months. We don’t need evidence that it fails. Try finding any evidence that it works! There is none.
They really should call “blue” hydrogen “brown” hydrogen. In emission terms it is dirtier than burning diesel. Gas companies are trying to position it close to green hydrogen, when they are not close at all in emission terms. So even the name is spin.
Andrew P Street
@AndrewPStreet
Every time I hear the federal government talking about how coal miners must be compensated if their industry shuts down I’m reminded how many of them were in the Abbott government in 2013 when it killed the motor industry and did
nothing about compensating workers.
I’m not against industry transition plans, to be very clear, but watching certain Coalition pollies talk about them like they’re a thing which happens regularly and that this isn’t a cynical method of delaying climate action by parties who’ve made their positions clear.
Patrick
@bankermason
Replying to
@AndrewPStreet
As if the money would go to workers. It’s hard to believe that people’s are so naive, they are though.
Itzadream
It is indeed sobering. Hence why many of us are frustrated by the attitude of many people in this space.
If we can get 90 percent people on the vaccination train here in Australia, we will have a good chance of managing this disease.
a r
So your joining Pfizer’s anti AZ campaign with vigor.
a r @ Monday, September 27, 2021 at 9:33 am
Please read my post earlier today – need for boosters isn’t certain.
You too Victoria 🙂
“Remember the half a dozen versions of the NEG? Not once did any journalist say “Whoa there!” to the costings, timings, the actual strategy or the verbal convolutions necessary to get even to the announcement stage. They all just pretended to swallow it whole – all the various versions – and cheered “Hooray! We’re saved!””
And that fool Mark Butler adopted it too!
Any news on the proposed quarantine centres in Qld and Vic? Seems to me they will be urgently required if Scotty’s dreams of opening up come true.
And why is the Regulator taking so long to approve the new rapid tests? Too many forms to fill in? Or has Hunt got his paws in the porridge?
I’m old enough to remember “Holden v. Ford” and “Beta v. VHS”…
Interesting that this comes from the bloke who told us last year he was going to go out and catch the bug, get it out of the way, then on with the partying, just to teach the Boomers a lesson or two.
Now he’s a vaccine snob.
Perhaps we should aim for Matt Zero as a first step.