The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
Some information for Taylormade,steelydan,bucephalus,Lars von trier and Lurker
from a liberal party premier
Monte Bovill
@MonteBovill
Tasmanian Premier reveals modelling that if Tasmania opens at 80% vaccination rate, over first six months there would be 14900 cases and nearly 100 deaths
Firefox2
Yes, but Elon Musk is a magician!
Of course someone might invent something that completely disrupts the whole communications sector, but conventional satellites and wireless are not it, because they are limited by physics we already know and understand, and hence the development of such technologies is predictable.
Lurker at 3:16 pm
Definitely not ‘angry’ .No point now. The NBN has been borked by Truffles and the Mad Monk and that is the way it is. All that is left is for the taxpayers to, eventually, cough up the many 10s of $Billions to fix it.
Did Victoria have these problems with Ambulances having to ramp for up to 15 mins during the last time Covid outbreak. No where near the peak either. Talks a big game does Dan the man.
6G satellites? Yeah nah.
5G range: around 500m uninterrupted
6G proposed range: around 200m uninterrupted.
For a detailed explanation, D&M knows a bit about the scattering effects of the atmosphere on different wavelengths of EM radiation.
There’s an article in The Conversation about why there are few women MP’s. Basically their research suggests that we the voterts don’t discriminate but the parties do. Most discrimination is applied by tending to run women in seats that are difficult to win. The Nats are worst with the Libs not much better.
I think change is coming. Local Government elections take place in October and in my Shire, seven of the nine candidates are women. In my ward, all three are women.
Lurker
It is the Coalition’s plan to convince people that government is hopeless. They can easily do so, when in government, by being hopeless. Which is what they’ve done.
And they’ve succeeded, because now we have people like you sheeting home the Coalition’s failures to Labor.
Gladys is now being attacked by the same liberal party premier
Bailey Kenzie
@baileykenzie01
Tasmania’s Premier Peter Gutwein says NSW’s plan to have no restrictions for anyone following 90% vaccination is a “recipe for disaster”.
—————
Will newsltd /Morrison,Gladys and their cronies ,attack the Tasmanian liberal party state government
I’m on satellite. You’re limited in the amount of data you can buy and you can’t ‘top up’ if you use it up.
We have to monitor our usage fairly strictly – we go on sites like Netflix towards the end of our billing month when we know how much data we can ‘waste’.
‘I will just say that when all is said and done, perhaps we will all have wished that government would have stayed out of this and let private companies provide these services. Why else did they sell Telstra for anyway.’
Except they wouldn’t, at least not where they were most needed. It’s why we’re now using taxpayer’s money to provide mobile phone coverage in ‘blackspot’ areas – it wasn’t worth Telstra or Optus’ while to spend their own money.
The really nasty kick in this one is that whichever provider uses taxpayers’ money to build the blackspot towers gets control of who can access that tower – so if you’re on Optus, yourphone won’t work here, because the mobile tower (paid for, I stress again, at least in part, by taxpayers) belongs to Telstra.
It’s a total rort and I’m surprised not more of a fuss is made about it.
Hand over the job of providing internet services to Telstra and you’d end up with something similar. They’d wait until the Nationals were demanding it be subsidised before they raised a finger.
nath doesn’t cope very well with being shown that he’s wrong.
The media is now in strife
not only Labor states/territories but now Liberal party state government has come out publicly , against Morrison and Gladys
DisplayName
You didn’t finish the sentence. It should read
“It is the Coalition’s plan to convince people that government is hopeless”, so that everyone will agree that all services should be privatised, giving more opportunities for mates profiteering.
lizzie
I admit to being fallible ;-).
Gutwein gone rouge on the national plan and Scott Morrison…!!!
Looking forward to seeing Probes on the ABC give Gutwein a good slap!
“Yes, but Elon Musk is a magician!”
***
He sure will be if he can crack faster than light travel and communications. When we get to that stage, which who knows we may one day in the future, then we can start thinking about sending humans on interstellar trips and bringing them back again. Think making the jump to lightspeed Star Wars style and then arriving at your destination not long after.
Speaking of dumbarse Americans and what they call “radical extreme socialist communism. Come on down Ron.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/off-the-rails-florida-governor-ron-desantis-blasts-australias-covid-restrictions/news-story/9aea5a9f5df3c82cbf4bdcbdd62a8cd5
So how has dickhead Ron done in his charnel house ?
Florida Population -21,000,000
Covid Deaths 27th Sept 483.
Covid Daily deaths 7 day average 311
Total Dead 54,000 . Higher than US casualties in the Vietnam War.
Any premier who can’t get there State to well above 80 % plus before Christmas is electorally shot. Further vaxcinated people will find it difficult to feel aorry for anyone refusing to get vaccinated. Your making a choice.
Steelydan
If the backlog is bad now wait just until we open up because that is what happened in Britain.
The blame will rest with those that wanted to live with covid.
Waiting for the media.Morrison and Gladys to apologise to the Labor premiers’ chief ministers and to the public for pushing a lie that NSW was following the national plan
Tasmanian premier says NSW roadmap contradicts national plan
Well done ACT
100.2% of 50 years plus first vaccinated and rising.
They said you would never make it.
You finally pulled through.
It didn’t take long for media to change their narrative. They know National Cabinet is not secret. It’s COAG. No secrecy legislation to change that. A Liberal Senator crossing the floor and Lambie against it if they even put it up.
It’s going to be very interesting what Labor Premiers say next armed with that knowledge.
Shellbell
“100.2% of 50 years plus first vaccinated and rising.”
Did I read that right? 100.2%? If so, I am beyond impressed.
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
On the WorkSafe charges a Victorian Government spokesperson said:
“As the matter is before the courts we will not be providing comment.”
In respect of whom, was comment sought? The Vic government is the prosecution, the defence and funds the court hearing the dispute.
Steely Dan
Gutwein went to an election last year. He does not need to worry.
He does know that if Covid really took hold there it would electorally disastrous as their health system is Very fragile
Kakuru
The over 70s are 104.9%
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-29-september-2021.pdf
Sounds like the Cth might be a bit behind in its ACT population count.
I’m just going to drop this here and back away slowly…
https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia
Half of Australians say they would support Australia developing nuclear power-plants, but a third would oppose.
Dandy Murray
Must be Barnaby’s New Maths!!
German election: Greens and FDP meet for preliminary two-way talks
The Greens and the Free Democrats have held a first meeting on the long road to forming a new German coalition government. Both the SPD and the CDU/CSU hope to secure the support of the two kingmakers.
The leaders of Germany’s Green Party and the Free Democrats (FDP) met Tuesday for two-way negotiations seeking common ground before future coalition talks.
After the meeting, FDP leader Christian Lindner posted a photo on Instagram of himself and General Secretary Volker Wissing, alongside the Greens’ co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck.
The caption read: “In the search for a new government, we are seeking out common ground and bridges over our divisions. And we are even finding some of those things. Exciting times.”
More details on what had been discussed were not provided.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-greens-and-fdp-meet-for-preliminary-two-way-talks/a-59346191
“Half of Australians say they would support Australia developing nuclear power-plants, but a third would oppose.”
***
Yeah this subs announcement was just the tip of the iceberg. It’s started off the campaign for nuclear. Can see the Coalition backing nuclear power as a way to avoid renewables and try and sell their new pivot to “net zero by 2050” nonsense. Matt Canavan has already started campaigning for it.
@AdamBandt tweets
“Winding down” income support (that already excluded so many people) at 70% vax, even though your own modelling admits we’ll still need lockdowns?
Despite skyrocketing demand at food charities?
The pandemic isn’t starving people.
The government is starving people.
The only “nuclear power plant” we should be using is the Sun via solar panels. Solar power could be considered to be a form of nuclear power. There is no need for dangerous nuclear reactors on Earth. We can get clean energy from plenty of other sources and it’s just far too dangerous. There is absolutely no margin for error when it comes to nuclear.
But will it happen? Gladys will have to consult her rich friends first.
I just cannot see any Premier leading a COVID-free state into plague conditions (and expect to survive).
How do you tell your citizens that because NSW couldn’t keep numbers at or near zero, as your state has done for over a year, the entire country has to voluntarily allow itself to get infected, as some kind of COVID pissing contest to see who’s the toughest?
Why would any state voluntarily sacrifice its real “freedoms” so that it can get sick and die with the Big Boys, just to help out Scott Morrison, or keep his options open for an early election?
I just can’t see this happening.
poroti @ #1316 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 3:43 pm
The lunatics have taken over the Florida asylum.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:49 pm
Steelydan
If the backlog is bad now wait just until we open up because that is what happened in Britain.
The blame will rest with those that wanted to live with covid.
I do not recall one single prediction from you or nearly everyone on this site ever, that is ever being right.
Open up at 80% fully vaccinated.
UK fully vaccinated 67% we can do better than that.
“Sounds like the Cth might be a bit behind in its ACT population count.”
Heh heh. Yes, I’d say so, Shellbell.
One explanation for ACT achieving >100% vaccination could be the number of foreign diplomatic staff who have been vaccinated here but are not included in the ACT population count.
Then there is the large transient workforce, especially in the military.
I had an interesting conversation with the check-in security guy at Services NSW today about ‘Freedom’.
He said he thought it was his duty as the father of 2 children to keep them ‘free’ from COVID-19 by getting vaccinated. Also to keep the people he comes in contact with ‘free’ from catching the disease off him and the ‘Freedom’ to live their lives as healthily as possible. 🙂
Also, while I was at Services, a couple of people waiting in line to come in had a go at Scott Morrison, unprompted. One lady said that she had been promised JobKeeper by her employer but when she went to claim her payment she was told she was only eligible for JobSeeker. She was not happy and still hasn’t gotten over it.
Then the guy behind her piped up and said the thing he hated about Scott Morrison was that he was two-faced.
So Josh Frydenburg can put on his best anodyne expression and tell us today that he will be cutting off disaster payments, but to people in the real world that’s real money with real world consequences. And they notice. And they vote.
Dandy Murray says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:59 pm
I’m just going to drop this here and back away slowly…
https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia
Half of Australians say they would support Australia developing nuclear power-plants, but a third would oppose.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Those stats are disappointing if true. It seems the memories of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and the Fukushima disaster of 2011 are fading.
Still, I doubt that Australia will go nuclear-powered. It is way too expensive, would take about 10 years to establish and by then renewables will have developed further and become even cheaper.
From someone on the front line at a Public Hospital in Melbourne, those presenting with Covid are aggressive idiots of the first order
They have to be physically subdued to put masks on them – just for starters
They are easily identified – and I will not repeat the description referencing their understanding of the English language
The description is “uneducated and dangerous” (and I added to society)
These health workers are under enormous pressure including because of the low life they are being forced to treat – and low life is a very polite description
For those interested in true or real vaccinations rates:
NSW first = 5.88 million/8.18 million = 72.5%
NSW second = 4.27 million/8.18 million = 52.2%
ACT first = 317,000/425,000 = 74.6%
ACT second = 218,000/425,000 = 51.2%
Vic first = 4.42 million /6.65 million = 66.5%
Vic second = 2.66 million/6.65 million = 40%
The rates of increase per day first and second vary between 0.5% and 1%.
NSW should be 77% or more whole population first vaccinated as at 11 October and around 62% full vaccinated.
Lurker says
I will just say that when all is said and done, perhaps we will all have wished that government would have stayed out of this and let private companies provide these services. Why else did they sell Telstra for anyway.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If Telstra had remained in government ownership, the government could simply have turned the telco into the NBN itself. It could have ordered Telstra to provide proper FTTH internet connections to even the remotest of locations.
Would that have been dreaming? In the 1940s, the Australian government instructed Telstra’s predecessor, the Post Master General’s department, to roll out phone lines to as many Australian homes and businesses as possible, no matter how remote they were. It cost 50 million pounds – something in the billions of dollars in today’s money.
I don’t know if anyone back then was saying the private sector should do it, or that it was incurring an unsustainable debt or even that telephones were not really necessary.
But aren’t cha glad it happened?
steelydan
We better hope that i am wrong because if what is happening in Britain happens here then it wont be long before the shit hits the fan.
“If Telstra had remained in government ownership, the government could simply have turned the telco into the NBN itself. It could have ordered Telstra to provide proper FTTH internet connections to even the remotest of locations.”
***
And they wouldn’t have had to buy back all the old copper trenches to lay the new fibre in. Abbott and Turnbull splashed out $11 billion on buying back that old copper network. Unbelievable waste of money to buy something that the government used to already own. Privatising Telecom/Testra was a disaster and continues to be so.
The Premier @GladysB says she has “inherent faith” the unvaccinated won’t enter premises from which they are banned. Sure. But I still don’t understand why the police won’t occasionally check if her faith is well placed.
_____________
Proving that, beyond doubt, that she has rocks in her head and/or couldn’t care less of the public health consequences.
“Monte Bovill
@MonteBovill
Tasmanian Premier reveals modelling that if Tasmania opens at 80% vaccination rate, over first six months there would be 14900 cases and nearly 100 deaths ”
“Dictator-Pete” (Guttwein). There is a name you don’t hear every day in the Murdoch press.
I’m picking ‘B” Binchook does not give a shit about the price the plebs will pay. The Rum Corp’s interests trump all.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1345 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 4:56 pm
Which they got to sell to NBNCo for billions. Pretty good business model:
1. Build infrastructure
2. Charge for access to infrastructure
3. Don’t bother maintaining the infrastructure
4. Sell decrepit infrastructure to the public
5. Profit