The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
JTI on the ‘pub test’ . Google trick to leap over the paywall.
.
Pubs are back soon, and it’s time to show the cliched ‘pub test’ to the door
JACK THE INSIDER
…………When that glorious day arrives, I will be first in line banging at the entrance should the clock pass eleven with no sign of the publican dropping the bolts from the front door.
As that first glass is raised, I believe it is also time to run a rusty knife through what politicians and many journalists refer to as ‘the pub test’…………..If it is to exist at all it should be confined to two simple actions:
If you enter a pub and order a schooner of something called Scruttocks’ Old Dirigible – Now with coconut oil, replete with sticks and leaves floating on top that costs $14, you’ve failed the pub test.
Don’t get me started on the surfeit of boutique brewers’ wares………….
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/pubs-are-back-and-its-time-to-show-the-cliched-pub-test-to-the-door/news-story/8ae2c206647ddc008b8ed13ca4847ee3
Bolt and the Hun back to their usual victims. Of course he is an expert modeller and epidemiologist
Andrew Bolt: Doom and gloom virus models holding Victorians hostage
Dan Andrews seems to treat Victoria’s Covid models as holy writ while the NSW government takes them with a pinch of salt. Yet our infections are rising faster than Sydney’s ever did.
Me oh my!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gutwein today:
A.R
Telstra and its short sighted management.
Rowe!!
Murdoch’s Hobart Mercury attacking Gutwein – and he’s a Liberal premier too!
Now for the SA Liberals to act to protect their vote at the March election?
All in all, not an encouraging day for Morrison.
It’s not as if they did not know the copper network was not fit for purpose years before.Oh and a bonus “up to” for BK.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/copper-longevity-a-mystery-for-nbn-20130915-2tsra.html
I can back up Observer on this!
One of my friends daughter is a nurse at a large Melbourne hospital.
They are being threatened on a daily basis eg. Could you please wear a mask – NO F…OFF!
On a tram going home after TWO shifts, threaten with assault, water tipped on them and bag of urine thrown!
Now go home in ordinary clothes now!!!!
Mainly uneducated red neck Australians!
Parents worried about her safety!
Thanks to Herald Sun, Age , LNP and there supporters!!!!!
Absolutely disgraceful people who support attacks on these defenceless hospital staff!
I notice some people on here support these organisations.
BK says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 5:34 pm
All in all, not an encouraging day for Morrison.
———————–
Yes, or for Gladys , they have both been called out not telling the truth about what was agreed to in the national cabinet ,by one of their own Liberal party premiers
Oops! Now Gladys has made Murdoch angry. That’s two Liberal premiers today.
Jeez the Superb Fairy Wren is playing a blinder against the Tawny Frogmouth and the Gang Gang Cockatoo. Why people vote up Kookaburras and Magpies, two of the most ubiquitous birds going around, and good for them, I don’t know?
2015…
Australia could have nuclear submarines within 15 years under French Barracuda option.
https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-could-have-nuclear-submarines-within-15-years-under-french-barracuda-option-20150213-13dnw8
Australia considered buying nuclear submarines from France before ditching deal, Peter Dutton says
It would appear that a couple of weeks ago conceded the Barracuda was fit for purpose under the original contract & it was dumped for other reasons.
Indeed the lawyers will make a killing on this … especially when Malcolm is called as a witness for the French… current & former PM calling into question each other’s truthfulness
Apropos hospital stories, this is a really, really sad one:
https://www.politicalflare.com/2021/09/covid-patient-that-anti-vaxxers-took-out-of-hospital-against-medical-advice-passes-away/
This is a little taster for my long form post, which – alas – has now been postponed until tomorrow. Sorry about that. Hopefully this might wet the appetite for more.
One of the reasons for the contract delays and specification rewrites for the final Naval Group contract – which had just been settled to the apparent satisfaction of all parties according to the correspondence received by the French the very day that the Prophet Morrison cancelled it was the rapidly evolving technologies surrounding both batteries and fuel cells between the date that the French were selected and 2020.
Originally the short fin barracuda was to have a range of 20,000 nm (over double that of the Collins, which itself had by far the longest range of any SSK at 9,000 nm), with its snorkel depth cruise speed increased from the Collins class’s 9 knots to about 15 knots (which is precisely the economically crushing speed of our capital ships in the RANs surface fleet) and the ability to stay submerged without snorting via the snorkel increased from 24 hours to several days. Further, it was envisaged that it would be able to operate at maximum speed – 25 knots, up from the Collins’ 20 knots – for up to or over a day. These improvements were the reason why Canberra was willing to risk switching from a propeller system to a pump jet system – because if sustained speeds of 15 to 25 knots actually became ‘a thing’ for this sort of SSK then the problems with propellor cavitation would have to be addressed. It WAS risky, because no one at the time knew whether it was all possible.
However advances in two seperate fields seem to clearly indicate that it is: fuel cells and li-ion batteries.
This is what the French have succeeded in doing in the field of submarine fuel cell technology in late 2019-20:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2019/07/naval-group-achieves-breakthrough-with-its-fc2g-aip-system/
The takeout points in this is that their system runs by reforming diesel – the exact same fuel as the generators on the Attack class uses. So there is no need to double up on fuels that are inherently unstable, like for example hydrogen gas or ammonia. This fuel means that an Attack class submarine could remain submerged on station for up to three weeks without snorting just on the electricity generated from this next generation AIP fuel cells system.
But wait, there is more.
The Japanese have now moved away from their old Sterling AIP systems that were installed in boats 1-10 of the Soryu class and taken out all the lead batteries in favour of – twice as many li-ion batteries for boats 11-12 in class. The Li-ion Soryu subs can still stay submerged for a week as the original Sterling AIP variants (which had to carry seperate and volatile fuel in addition to diesel) but the extra available energy that can be instantly obtained from the Li-ion batteries means that it can also sustain maximum speeds (20 knots for the Soryu) for days on end.
Now, let’s go back to the Attack class contract that had been finally settled. Although details are sketchy (thanks to Morrison’s typical secrecy) from what I’ve been able to gather from various sources the boats – if they had been built – would have had both the next generation French AIP system and Li-ion batteries and it is understood that the boats were expected to have the following characteristics:
20,000 nm range before diesel refuelling (nearly the same distance as the earth’s circumference);
– 90 days endurance per deployment;
– 15 knots economical cruising speed at snorkel depth;
– 25+ knots maximum submerged speed;
– 3 weeks underwater endurance without snorkelling; and
– Sustained maximum speed duration on stored Li-ion battery energy of approximately 3 days continuous running (or close to 2,000 nm at maximum speed but silent running because only the electric motor is being used, not the diesel generators).
And we have scrapped the contract! After 4 billion dollars and 5 years further development. FMD.
Crozier is being used for the daily liberal whinge on Channel 7 news. Very annoying ‘worried’ face
Firefox2 says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:28 pm
“No other Democrat would’ve been up to the task.”
***
Pretty much any one of them, with the exception of Bloomberg after Warren totally destroyed him on live TV, would have won. Trump lost because he totally ignored/downplayed/mishandled the Covid crisis. It really is that simple. It was the issue of the election. Any one of the Dems, including Biden, would have done a better job of handling it. Clinton would have done a better job of handling it had she won in 2016 too. 2020 was all about Covid and Trumps abysmal handling of it. That’s the bottom line of why he lost and Biden won.
Biden was the choice of the Democrat-voting community in the US from Feb 2020…when the pandemic was in its earliest phase. Even then, Trump was in trouble.
Clinton was a terrible candidate. She probably would have made a good President though.
In her 4 part interview with Howard Stern she reveals a much more intriguing and authentic personality than what she put forward in the campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kHUA-Zma1U
Andrew. Looking forward to the long form.
nath,
You speak non stop rubbish all the time.
Back to the sock draw for you!
You are pathetic.
For the health staff I expect these numbers help deal with the stress of dealing with the dickheads a little.
The community is with you.
@DanielAndrews tweets
Since becoming eligible earlier this month, 40% of 12-15 year old Victorians have come forward to get their first vaccination.
That’s over 123,000 doses.
In just 17 days.
Oh look. Oscar the Grouch has emerged from his rubbish bin.
One last taster.
A rebuttal to the late to the party growling Queensland Policeman, Admiral Peter Dutton, as expressed here:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/17/australia-considered-buying-nuclear-submarines-from-france-before-ditching-deal-peter-dutton-says
As Malcolm Turnbull pointed out today – and I mentioned repetitively over the last 2 weeks – having to refuel every 10 years is not an impediment for operating a SSN.
Every sub has to be overhauled every 7 to 10 years. The entire period of this overhaul (which is in addition to the regular maintenance that takes them out of deployment for up to 60% of the time between overhauls) ranges between 12 to 24 months. The French overhaul schedule is 12 months.
As Malcolm Turnbull said, the refuelling process – conducted at the same time as the overall submarine overhaul – only takes a few weeks. So, every 10 years – were Australia to acquire them – the RAN would send them to France (transit time approximately 1 month each way) and then 3 months later they would be back at Osborne for the rest of their 12 month overhaul. 15 months (down from the 18-2 year rebuild time for the Collins that has to happen every 7 years).
The advantages of going with the low enriched uranium option include safety by an order of magnitude, lessening the risks of proliferation because we are not using weapons grade uranium, not needed to have a weapons grade nuclear industry as part of a redundancy ‘if something goes wrong’ (and something always goes wrong eventually) and – when directly comparing the Barracuda nuclear subs to either the Virginia or Astute subs – having redundancies which the UK/US simply don’t possess. That’s because the drive system in the French subs are an electric motor: the nuclear reactor simply charges the batteries. Each French nuclear submarine has a diesel generator and sufficient diesel fuel to ‘go back home’ if the reactor needs to be shut down (and being a commercial low grade reactor it is easier to shut it down than the weapons grade reactors on the US/UK boats).
As Turnbull said today, the ‘thinking’ behind the so-called advantages to Australia of acquiring a sub with a 35 year nuclear supplied reactor is just like getting a power tool from Bunnings with a long life battery and simply returning it when the battery runs out. It’s just absurd.
If we do have to pivot to the nuclear option – and I’m not convinced just yet of THAT conclusion the obvious starting point – the benchmark for a proper evaluation process would be the Suffren class just coming into service as the most modern and probably the most stealthy SSN variants on offer (I’m sure that will offend C@t because she has been assured by ‘experts’ – aka folk with looong snouts in the American Nuclear submarine industry – that the next block Virginias are best of all. lols).
I think that a possible solution out of the present mess would involve:
1. A change in federal Government;
2. A diplomatic reset with France. Restart the attack program but for 7-8 boats (two squadrons of three boats each, plus one or two spares to account for unavailability due to the scheduled 10 year overhauls and any other unforeseen issues along the way). With some diplomatic deftness we may have only lost a year and will limit our multi billion dollar exposure if we truly do walk away now. We will also restore our reputation outside the Anglosphere as a trustworthy nation and not a bunch of sovereign risk pirates and shysters;
3. Select an evolved Suffren class SSN boat for the final 7-8 boats. This evolution would include vertical launch tubes for missiles, Americans combat systems to be compatible with the Attack class, and alternative weapons than what the French use – again to be compatible with other weapons in the ADF arsenal. I’d suggest that the first 1-3 SSNs be built in France concurrently with the attack class being built in Australia, with the remaining boats also being built in Australia; and
4. As an interim, consider acquiring 3-4 refurbished Rubis class SSN boats from France as they come out of service with the French navy this decade, so as to train up additional crews in SSN operations before we receive the evolved Suffren class boats from the middle of next decade.
I dont think the Americans will mind very much if we pivot back along these lines. If the Brits have the shits. Boo Hoo. Although we should consider acquiring two QE class carriers of them: that would help smooth ruffled features.
Nath,
I don’t care. Do you?
Lots of feelpinions and trolling is all you’ve got.
You’ve absolutely nothing of substance to offer the conversation.
But, you already knew that.
GG, the reason you sledge people like this is that you are neither intelligent enough to mount an argument nor humble enough to acknowledge the obvious fact that you don’t have anything to offer.
VS
Just to add, these individuals are presenting to hospitals because they are having trouble breathing
But they can still yell abuse and threats to hospital staff and struggle to not have protective clothing including masks put on them – needing to be restrained to arrive at that outcome
And, once they are in surgery, losing a lung because of this virus
So committed health professionals are saving their lives
Putting themselves in the line of danger, some losing their lives to this virus of unknown source
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 6:02 pm
2015…
Australia could have nuclear submarines within 15 years under French Barracuda option.
https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-could-have-nuclear-submarines-within-15-years-under-french-barracuda-option-20150213-13dnw8
Australia considered buying nuclear submarines from France before ditching deal, Peter Dutton says
Dutton’s fingerprints are all over the US/UK subs deal and the repudiation of France.
Watch Lucien Eye say what he really thinks about Scott ™
https://twitter.com/joshburnsmp/status/1443057599838973958?s=21
WB,
Why do you ban people for being sock puppets with turned up moral outrage then let them back in as sock puppets? Now you are running a protection racket for sock puppets!
Your comment last time when you banned nath was he was “fucking up your blog”. Nothing has changed and nath certainly hasn’t changed.
So, your erratic moderation policy pot porri lacks transparency, consistency and logic.
You create the environment to sledge because you are inconsistent and half hearted in doing the job you have signed up for.
I humbly propose that argument for your due consideration.
If you are interested in things like why there was a gap between the bronze age and the iron age, this is a cracker of a lecture, IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRcu-ysocX4
An interesting option for energy storage, an Australian company got a mention (MGA thermal), no doubt the Liberals will do their best to destroy them. Can’t have Australian innervation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edVjYofLYc4&t=541s&ab_channel=JustHaveaThink
https://www.mgathermalstorage.com
Since Nath is allowed to post here, and since there was nothing in the comment to which you were just responding to which any reasonable person would have taken exception, it follows that you are not allowed to sledge him for it. Nath is not the issue here. Here is one of many other examples of you swinging a haymaker at another commenter for absolutely no reason whatsoever.
This historic selfie is going viral now and German Twitter has even begun analysing the different Insta filters the four of them used when posting it. They’re tackling the important issues while being kept in suspense hehe…
It’s really interesting how the Greens and FDP decided to meet up first like this before speaking to the SPD or CDU. Seems like their meeting was pretty friendly and productive too. The FDP seem to be somewhat similar to the Lib Dems in the UK – centre-right economically but more socially progressive than conservative. Small l liberals. I reckon the three parties can make a Traffic Light coalition work well, they’re off to a positive start anyway.
Also found it interesting that younger voters in Germany overwhelmingly favoured the Greens and the FDP over all the other parties. The German population skews quite old – there are far more Gen Xers and Boomers than Millennials and Zoomers. They were saying on DW before that if the demographics were reversed the Greens and the FDP would be the largest and second largest parties in the country, respectively. So the future looks even brighter for the Greens than it is already. The CDU on the other hand gets most of it’s support from older generations, as does the AfD.
Speaking of the CDU, the cracks are already starting to appear. The wheels might really fall off once Merkel is no longer caretaker Chancellor. I think they’re headed for quite a long period of decline as she will be a very tough act to follow for them and as I said before the demographics will start working against them too.
Friendly Jordies.
.
War with China?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=89&v=jEt9uxuKje8&feature=emb_logo
‘Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 4:34 pm
Dandy Murray says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:59 pm
I’m just going to drop this here and back away slowly…
https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia
Half of Australians say they would support Australia developing nuclear power-plants, but a third would oppose.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Those stats are disappointing if true. It seems the memories of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and the Fukushima disaster of 2011 are fading.
…’
____________________
I haven’t forgotten about either. Chernobyl is surrounded by a de facto wildlife reserve that, apart from some weird stuff involving the skull size of some species of birds, is going gangbusters.
Fukushima killed a few first responders and may have shortened the lives of a few tens of thousands of people. If that.
Climate change has already killed tens of thousands of people. It is global will impact for millenia, and will dwarf a hundred Chernobyls and Fukushimas combined.
If we can crank out nuclear plants cheaply and quickly I am all for them.
The latest stuff about juice not coming out of the mains in China (cos coal) or petrol from the forecourts of the UK cos the Brexit xenophobes got rid of all the lorry drivers, is fascinating.
WB,
You do love to dissemble, don’t you.
If nath’s back and glorious how about reforming Frank Calabrese and bemused.
It’s only right and fair.
On the day that Vic hits its highest cases and the Latrobe Valley goes into lockdown, Joshie announces the withdrawal of financial support because there will be no more lockdowns.
Well bowled sir.
A-E
Thanks for you posts on the subs. Illuminating for moi.
Lizzie,
Can’t see the Libs being successful with this sort of threatening campaign.
“Biden was the choice of the Democrat-voting community in the US from Feb 2020…when the pandemic was in its earliest phase. Even then, Trump was in trouble.”
***
Not sure how you figure that considering the Iowa (first) Democratic Primary – which was won by Sanders – was only held on February 3rd. During that time Sanders was the front runner. Bloomberg was still the establishment’s pick at that stage. It wasn’t until weeks and months later that Biden was considered the favourite.
On the same day the Iowa Primary was held (3rd Feb), the US declared a public health emergency, so Covid was already taking hold in the US and Trump was already mismanaging it…
Jan. 22, 2020: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.” – Trump
Earlwood,
You can write a million words and pat yourself on the back for all of them and you would still be missing the point.
The American submarine deal is not simply a deal for submarines. It is a deal, if you wish to mention the Suffren Class, for a submarine that is quieter and more advanced than the nuclear propulsion Chinese submarines and the Suffren Class submarines. However, it is also a deal that encompasses integration of the submarine fleets of 3 countries, so that they can work together.
It also involves early access to the next generation of the Virginia Class submarine that will more likely than not outperform the Chinese submarines.
However, most importantly it will give Australia access to Quantum Computing and AI integration into the scenario. Things the French may also be working on but not that I’ve seen mentioned, not to mention the fact that the Americans are generally superior in this area to the French.
Now you can count all the angels on the head of a pin they find in a submarine and expostulate at length about them but it is the strategic issue that you seem unable to address convincingly as far as I’m concerned.
Also, you can try and humiliate me and the references I choose, but that’s not going to convince me. All it says to me is that you are polishing your knob when you do it.
Firefox: it’s not really a surprise the Greens and FDP are talking to each other first. Unless there’s another grand coalition (unlikely), the only possible way to a majority involves both of them whether they like it or not, so it’s a logical thing to do.
There’s been SPD/FDP and SPD/Green federal governments before, so a traffic light coalition isn’t that much of a stretch. It looks like the most likely outcome at the moment.
If the question were..
“Nuclear power will be 3 times more expensive that building renewables with grid scale energy storage. Do you support nuclear power?”
I don’t think it would score as well.
There was a political advert during the channel 9 news here in Melbourne.
I wasnt able to catch it all. But something to do with the premiers getting pay rises and the image of the odious Rita Pahani.
It was tres weird.
There is obviously some type of testing the waters for a federal election.
Cos why else?
Vic,
One thing I know from years of election experiences is that the voters distinguish between Federal, State and Council candidates.
It would be a mistake for the Federal Libs spending time, energy and money on Daniel Andrews.
GG
I didnt watch it properly, but I saw images of all the premiers with their salary next to their image.
Earlwood and c@t proving the NSW right still fight like cats and dogs.
Probably fair given c@T’s geographical location that she can be labelled a Terrigal and Earlwood a trog. Kinda seems appropriate??
Im assuming Eddie’s holiday shack at Terrigal is now owned by the trustee in bankruptcy??
“ for a submarine that is quieter and more advanced than the nuclear propulsion Chinese submarines and the Suffren Class submarines”
Probably right about the former but almost certainly dead wrong about the later. You rally need to stop accepting the word of american experts who are totally embedded – and objectivity compromised – with their own programs. American and British subs use a steam driven shaft system geared directly to the jet pump impeller propulsion system. The French use their civilian grade reactors to simply charge the batteries. Basic engineering dictates that electric motor is quieter than mechanical gearing.