The Australian today brings us the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which combine all the Newspoll surveys between July and September to produce state and demographic breakdowns from credibly sized samples. As such, the headline national figure of 53-47 to Labor tells us nothing we didn’t know already, with the juiciest meat instead to be found in the state breakdowns:
• The demarcation between this quarter and the previous quarter aligns fairly neatly with the onset of New South Wales’ COVID-19 crisis in late June, so the results here are particularly noteworthy. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result last quarter, a movement that skirts a 2.2% margin of error from a sample of 2057. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 3.8% compared with the 2019 election result, which if uniform would gain them the seat of Reid on a margin of 3.2%.
• The biggest movement since the previous quarterly poll is in Victoria, where Labor’s lead has blown out from 53-47 to 58-42. This is a 4.9% swing from the 2019 result, which if uniform would bag Labor the seats of Chisholm (a post-redistribution Liberal margin of 0.5%), Higgins (3.7%), Casey (4.6%) and Deakin (4.7%). The sample in this case is 1731 for a margin of error of 2.4%.
• Queensland provides the Coalition with its one ray of sunshine, with the Coalition credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 53-47 last time. This nonetheless amounts to a 3.4% swing to Labor compared with their disastrous result in 2019, just barely enough to win them Longman (margin 3.3%) if uniform. The sample here is 1536, the margin of error 2.5%.
• Conversely, Western Australia remains the Coalition’s biggest headache, with Labor’s two-party lead edging out to 54-46 compared with 53-47 last quarter. This amounts to a swing to Labor of 9.6%, which would win them not only the relatively low-hanging fruit of Swan (post-redistribution Liberal margin 3.2%, with incumbent Steve Irons having announced on the weekend that he will not seek re-election), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%), but push them up to the level of the rarely discussed seat of Tangney (9.5%). However, the sample here is notably smaller at 602, for a margin of error of 4%. This is because Newspoll juiced up its samples from the three largest states in last week’s poll to provide leadership and COVID-19 management ratings for the premiers.
• Labor leads 53-47 in South Australia, down from 54-46, for a swing to Labor of 2.3%, which exceeds the 1.4% margin in Boothby, the state’s one Liberal marginal. Here the sample was a modest 472, and the margin of error about 4.5%.
From the other demographic breakdowns, the big eye-opener is movement to Labor among older voters. This is reflected in a narrowing in the Coalition lead among the 65-plus age cohort from 65-35 to 59-41, and among retirees from 61-39 to 57-43, from robust sample sizes of around 1500 in each case. The results also show the Coalition holding its ground among those in the $100,000 to $150,000 income cohort while losing it among those poorer and richer.
The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 14 and September 18, with a combined sample of 6705.
O @ #1183 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 12:39 pm
Has briefly changed his nom again? 🙄
WeWantPaul @ #1198 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 1:06 pm
I can see why you, and the other lawyer, Earlwood, have so much free time to spend on PB. You’re not very good, if that’s the best counter argument you can come up with. ‘Trump MAGA Murdoch Morrison Boo!’ 😆
With the new manslaughter laws the Victorian labor government implemented to nail dodgy big businesses, pretty serious.
Trust? Morrison?
I, for one, support a lawyerfest where one arm of government prosecutes another one.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 12:23 pm
….
Only a fool would trust in China’s benign, ‘defensive’ intent.
China has far bigger problems than Australia buying some submarines in 18 years and they are all internal.
The only use AUKUS ( AUstralia KaktUS) is its value as a shinny announcement.
Biden gets to bad mouth China.
Johnson gets to pretend the empire is back.
Morrison gets an opportunity to Wedge Labor.
Beyond that it really is a non event. Whatever is going to happen to China will have played out before Australia gets its new toys ( if it does become more than a shinny announcement, which I doubt).
Paul Keating got it about right.
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:04 pm
I honestly don’t understand your response. What is the Alice through the Looking glass defence?
I am trying to understand your logic that a change in president from Trump to Biden is a rationale for this change in defence strategy. I am not going into whether it is good or bad decision. Just trying to understand the logic. It is very confusing as Trump was not the president when the original contract with the French was negotiated.
Are you tying yourself into a pretzel? It is Octoberfest after all 🙂
At the National Press Club…
Reporter asks Turnbull who he’s going to vote for at next election and he says “It’s a secret ballot and that will be between me and the ballot box”
As I was saying…
@bobjcarr tweets
A leadership award to NSW Health Minister Hazzard for saying unvaccinated health workers would be placed on unpaid leave. Absolutely right. You lose your right to work in a hospital if you carry the virus and spread it over the 20-30 patients & co-workers you encounter each day.
Like smoking at work it’s an occupational health and safety issue.
Biden’s legacy to democracy is that he demolished Trump, at least for four years. No other Democrat would’ve been up to the task. Unfortunately, he’s most likely suffering cognitive decline; the line, “that fella Down Under” could have been a joke of sorts but I think it was more likely an attempt to compensate for a failing memory. But he’s no worse than Reagan, for instance. I very much doubt that Biden will serve a second term, his ratings in freefall and a great orator he is not.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Oh dear. I see another right winger has blocked me on Twitter after I called out their racism against Tu Le!
They’ve joined the likes of Paul Murray and Chris Kenny of Sky After Dark infamy in the ranks of the right who’ve blocked me like the cowards they are after being challenged.
It’s like a badge of honour!
Sprocket.
Snap
“ I, for one, support a lawyerfest where one arm of government prosecutes another one.”
Verily.
$$$$$
Someone linked a story about comparing the rights and wrongs of what Australia is doing in regard to Florida and the insane De Santis and whether or not we’re worse that Communist China. I don’t how the formatting is going top be but mistaking Australia’s total cases and deaths with the population of NSW is always going to end in tears. It also shows how very little the rest of the world knows or cares about Australia. It also shows the lengths Murdoch and co will go to distort a story. They depict a protestor as being arrested for “having a smoke with lunch”. I’m sure Mundo would approve. Anything for his guy Morrison.
Cases Deaths Population
China 96,081 4,636 1.4 billion
US 43,615,631 700,924 332 million
Australia 100,912 1,256 8.9 million
Florida 3,539,218 53,116 21.6 million
Mavis
Some would say that Morrison PM is also in cognitive decline or should we just refer to his symptoms as selective memory or even sinister enhancement?
Griff @ #1206 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 1:15 pm
1. I don’t drink and I think that was a pretty low blow to suggest that I am drunk.
2. The Alice Through the Looking Glass defense is attached to those who, when they look in the mirror, see things from the Chinese perspective in order to argue against a move in Australia’s defensive interests.
3. The contract with the French was negotiated when Trump was President because Trump decided not to sanction China’s territorial expansion and so he was not the President to offer Australia a superior submarine. President Biden has.
I wonder if the newspapers will publish that Mark Babbage was staying at Mt Hotham and Skiing all winter? Looks like he was there since the start of July – great way to avoid the lockdown…
“No other Democrat would’ve been up to the task.”
***
Pretty much any one of them, with the exception of Bloomberg after Warren totally destroyed him on live TV, would have won. Trump lost because he totally ignored/downplayed/mishandled the Covid crisis. It really is that simple. It was the issue of the election. Any one of the Dems, including Biden, would have done a better job of handling it. Clinton would have done a better job of handling it had she won in 2016 too. 2020 was all about Covid and Trumps abysmal handling of it. That’s the bottom line of why he lost and Biden won.
Isn’t it sick making to see the defender of free speech resort to blocking folk from even reading their social media broadcasts?
As opposed to merely muting anyone they deem to be a troll or crank from reposting or responding to their comments?
What cowards. Censorious cowards.
Labor campaign advertising opportunity on vaccination failure just provided by Turnbull.
Worksafe charges the Victorian health department with breaching OHS laws
Worksafe has just issued a statement about charges against the Victorian health department over its hotel quarantine system. It has charged the department with 58 breaches of the Occupational Health and Safety Act.
WorkSafe alleges that the department of health breached OHS laws by failing to appoint people with infection prevention and control (IPC) expertise to be stationed at hotels it was utilising for the program.
It alleges the department failed to provide security guards with face-to-face infection prevention control training by a person with expertise in IPC prior to them commencing work, and either failed, or initially failed, to provide written instruction for the use of PPE.
WorkSafe further alleges the department failed to update written instructions relating to the wearing of masks at several of the hotels.
In all charges, WorkSafe alleges that department of health employees, Victorian government authorised officers on secondment, or security guards were put at risk of serious illness or death through contracting Covid-19 from an infected returned traveller, another person working in the hotels or from a contaminated surface.
The maximum penalty for a body corporate for each of these charges is $1.64m (9000 penalty units).
“Isn’t it sick making to see the defender of free speech resort to blocking folk from even reading their social media broadcasts?”
***
Yes! Exactly right. These are the very people who rant and rave non-stop about free speech but the second they are challenged they run and hide from other people’s “free speech”. The truth is they only support free speech when it’s something they agree with.
The cancellation of the French subs deal will be more than a lawyers’ picnic, it should be a veritable orgy.
I think Tim Watts answers his own question but it’s a question worth asking:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/29/facebook-asked-to-explain-craig-kelly-ads-after-mps-page-banned
Here is the quote I think Labor should use in advertising
@Paul_Karp tweets
“The reason we’re in lockdown is the federal govt didn’t buy enough vaccines last year – no argument about that – it is the biggest failure of public
administration.” – Turnbull
#auspol #npc #COVID19Aus
Honestly, c@t stop digging. We know you have a murder boner for uppity yellow folk and the red mist is getting in the way, but seriously you are not entitled to alternative facts.
“ 3. The contract with the French was negotiated when Trump was President because Trump decided not to sanction China’s territorial expansion and so he was not the President to offer Australia a superior submarine. President Biden has.”
_______
The evaluation process leading to the awarding of the French submarine contract happened entirely in the period that Obama was President. As the then Prime Minister – Malcolm Turnbull has just explicitly stated at the time – the Americans were all over the process. They were enthusiastic about it. Not surprising given that it involved the use of Lockheed Martin combat systems and American weapons.
Also it gave the Americans an intellectual property buy in to the most modern and cutting edge development of fuel cell technology and military applications thereof. Something that will be highly relevant to the next pivot in naval warfare – autonomous submersibles (even if the Americans stay 100% nuclear for manned submarines, the potential application of fuel cells and submarine drones is vast).
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:26 pm
1. I apologise. I had no intent to infer that you are drunk. I am sorry that is what you inferred. I was attempting to be lighthearted about your logic. Hence the smiley face.
2. If that is the Alice in the Looking Glass defence, it is irrelevant to the logic of your argument about presidential change being the rationale.
3. You may want to check your dates. Trump was elected November 2016. The French won the submarine contract in May 2016 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-26/pm-announces-france-has-won-submarine-contract/7357462?nw=0&r=HtmlFragment)
Lol @ Turnbull stating he will be attending Glasgow , i would laugh if Morrison and his cronies refuse Turnbull exemption to leave Australia
Queensland Coalition senator Gerard Rennick says he will cross the floor and vote against the government’s move to exclude national cabinet from information disclosure laws, saying he’s “got no time for secrecy”.
…… “If you’re locking down people on the advice of an unelected health bureaucrat, people are entitled to know what’s going on in these meetings,” Senator Rennick told The Australian Financial Review.
“I don’t really know why Scott Morrison feels the need to keep it a secret. I’ve got no time for secret stuff. I’ll vote against it.”…..
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rennick-to-cross-floor-on-national-cabinet-secrecy-laws-20210928-p58vh9
No lawyers required.
https://www.afp.gov.au/news-media/media-releases/afp-statement-relation-leppington-triangle-investigation
Oh I had better check my dates as well. It was even earlier; April not May 2016!
C@tmomma @ #1229 Wednesday, September 29th, 2021 – 1:36 pm
After seeing this I went to the UAP site on Facebook and reported a number of posts for false information. May not make a huge difference but if lots of people did this the message may get through to the facebook moderators/admin
Shellbell @ Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:47 pm
Impressive effort!
@KJBar tweets
Malcolm Turnbull: “Laura, I have spoken to Emmanuel Macron. He is a friend and I have stayed in touch with him since I left office.” #NPC
Firefox2:
I followed the last US election very closely, mainly on CNN. I did not observe much disparaging of Sanders & Warren. That said, the CNN anchors’ imperative was to help to rid the US polity of Trump, and post-election it has been shown that US democracy is indeed held together by delicate threads.
I’m not suggesting it’s desirable but historically, the Left in the US doesn’t do very well, as most of their policies are at odds with the American Dream, even if this dream is for the most part illusory – eg, born in a log cabin but became president. I would add that if the gap’s not soon closed between the haves & the haves not, the Left may resonate more than it has to date.
“NSW records 863 cases, 15 deaths;
Victoria records 950 cases, seven deaths;”
When you look at the headline figures for covid now, you start thinking the NSW figures are fiction. They are not doing enough testing. Truck drivers from NSW are regularly being found to be positive when in neighboring states.
When you consider the deaths, it is hard not to believe that NSW new infections are still a lot higher than Victoria in reality.
Goll:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 1:26 pm
[‘Mavis
Some would say that Morrison PM is also in cognitive decline or should we just refer to his symptoms as selective memory or even sinister enhancement?’]
More I think a case of pseudologia fantastica.
It’s a shame Paul Murray can’t block beer and pies.
“ It’s a shame Paul Murray can’t block beer and pies.”
It’s a shame I can’t!
Arrlgh!
They have a new host:
Latest Details on the Deal Between France and Greece for 3 FDI Frigates
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/latest-details-on-the-deal-between-france-and-greece-for-3-fdi-frigates/
Socrates,
Deaths lag new infections by around 3-4 weeks. The Victorian death numbers will jump up. How high will depend upon the rate of vaccination and the peak new cases number.
I am always astonished that run-of-the-mill citizens like Paul Murray can get a soap box where people take notice of their views. And their opinions are taken seriously.
Some of our Liberal-leaning contributors here like Lars and Buce are just if not more qualified than Fat Paul…
Come on Sprocket, if Uncle Rupert offered you 500k a year to turn you wouldn’t be tempted?
It is great to see that Thunberg has sunk the verbal slipper into Xi.
China emits around a third of the world’s CO2 and growing.
China burns over half of the world’s coal-fired generation and growing.
Xi MUST STOP with the ‘blah, blah, blah!’
nath, but why choose a dork like Paul Murray?
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 2:27 pm
nath, but why choose a dork like Paul Murray?
________
the guys can talk shit for 2 hours straight five nights a week for years. Harder than you think.