Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10

Another idiosyncratic set of voting intention numbers from the Age/Herald pollster, suggesting the Coalition would again be returned with a small majority.

The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.

With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.

The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:

The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.

As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.

On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,821 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10”

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  1. Lizzie

    The Flags Act 1953 (as amended) has nothing to say about the use of the flag design on items of clothing, footwear, cushions etc.

    The department of PM & C has available a booklet which goes into great detail about flying the flag, “retiring” a flag and so on but is also silent about its use as a fashion accessory.

  3. Morning all. Thanks BK.

    Some great news on the climate change front:

    “Karl Mathiesen@KarlMathiesen
    · 3h
    BREAK: Xi Jinping says China will stop building coal plants overseas. This almost completely ends the international finance of coal in a single sentence.”

  6. New South Wales is turning to other states and overseas to recruit nurses to help cope with the predicted peak in Covid cases requiring hospitalisation next month, with some regional hospitals offering generous travel and pay incentives.

    My wife and I had our second AZ yesterday – she a month early and me a week early. Preparing to have some protection when Gladys unleashes “freedom” on NSW and the inevitable seepage into the ACT.

  8. AUKUS/Subs – there are many dimensions to the announcement, and everyone picks the dimension that they think is the most important and reacts on that level and berates others for reacting on a different level.

    For me, I don’t really care about the specific technical details on the subs except that there should be some transparent basis for choosing a particular engineering solution (nuclear/conventional, particular size/make of boat, how we realistically get there in partnership with whomever is chosen). I have a natural disinclination to get Australia involved in nuclear, but if it’s genuinely the best match for our strategic needs – and we can understand why that choice might be made – then fair enough.

    The things that do concern me are the diplomatic aspects and the dependency aspects.

    On the diplomatic aspects I’m not even that concerned by the French fallout (although the fact that this deal is now damaging not only Australia’s relationship with France and the EU but the US’s relationships boggles my mind in how far Morrison’s fuckery spreads) – we can and will work to repair those relationships over time. It’s unfortunate and should have been unnecessary with an Australian government that paid even the slightest attention to international relationships, but here we are and we can deal with that.

    The diplomacy that matters is in our region. In a multi-polar world, or in a world with rising and diminishing superpowers, what keeps us safe is not shiny toys or clinging tightly to the fading/faded past powers – what keeps us safe is weaving ourselves into the fabric of the region. If we build and strengthen ties with our neighbours then we can build a regional stability that can weather the storms of geopolitical change. But we can’t do that successfully if we are seen in the region as simply an extension of the USA. This deal/alignment is a clear signal – directed at China, presumably – that Australia is choosing to go all in with the USA, binding us to such a degree that we will simply have no capability to act independently. Indonesia, Malaysia, etc will have to navigate the future with respectful relations with China – they will be necessarily wary of China, but they must be able to work with China. The more we huddle up with the USA the harder it is for these countries to work with us and form those regional ties that are our real future security – we need to be able to say, genuinely, credibly, that we can make decisions independently of Washington. AUKUS clearly says we cannot. At least with a French/European boat we could have some credibility in presenting a more independent international stance.

    Nuclear also comes into the diplomatic aspects – even if only propulsion – as it is clearly a provocative move and does have implications for global and regional arms escalation. This is not something to do lightly.

    And then there’s dependency. If, ultimately, it comes to war, and we all hope it does not, having zero capability to build or maintain crucial systems on our military equipment is a massive massive problem.

    What makes these diplomatic and dependency issues worse, in my mind, is what seems like a complete lack of planning, consideration, let alone consultation or transparency, on what are major long term issues. We get this stuff pulled out of Morrison’s arse and zero evidence of what, if any, consideration has been given to these issues. Not even the basic technical stuff is covered beyond sound bites from the PMO.

  21. [‘At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals.’]

    Good! “Resolve” needs to resolve its ‘peculiarities’ relative to Morgan’s and Newspoll’s methodology as there’s nothing
    that Labor has done to cause it to slip to a PV of 31%, where Morgan had it on 35%; Newspoll, 38%. And perhaps Resolve should not be included in the Bludgertrack until it’s sorted unless some form of weighting is applied. Over to you, WB.

  22. Oh dear. The fringe far-right in Germany are totally losing their minds at the thought of the Greens being in government.

    ‘Hang the Greens’ posters must be removed, German court rules

    A German court on Tuesday ordered the removal of election posters reading “Hang the Greens” that were put up by a small far-right party.

    Earlier this month, Der Dritte Weg (The Third Way), a party monitored by security services and suspected of links to neo-Nazi groups, had hung the posters across the eastern city of Zwickau in the run-up to the German election.

    The Green Party is currently ranking third in the polls after the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Union, and are likely to be part of a coalition government after the vote.

    https://www.dw.com/en/hang-the-greens-posters-must-be-removed-german-court-rules/a-59255468

  31. Socrates @ #103 Wednesday, September 22nd, 2021 – 9:13 am

    Morning all. Thanks BK.

    Some great news on the climate change front:

    “Karl Mathiesen@KarlMathiesen
    · 3h
    BREAK: Xi Jinping says China will stop building coal plants overseas. This almost completely ends the international finance of coal in a single sentence.”

    That is good news.

    This article is from a day or two ago, but still relevant …

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-rebukes-world-leaders-on-climate-change-and-warns-history-will-judge-them-20210921-p58tct.html

    Johnson told leaders at Monday’s UN roundtable that acting on climate change would put them on the right side of public opinion “at home and on the international stage”.

    “It’s a diplomacy issue, a security issue, a trade issue,” he said. “And in the years to come, the only great powers will be green powers.

    “If you abdicate responsibility today, do you think those who pay the price for that decision will rally to your side tomorrow?

    So it seems China is moving to the right side and we are still digging in deeper on the wrong 🙁

  35. Thanks. I’m chortling at the idea that Morrison’s face mask bears any resemblance to a “fashion accessory”.

    Given that it covers up the shiteating grin it’s certainly an improvement.

  38. In a perverse sort of way I hope this mob turns up again today in Melbourne.
    If they do they will get their comeuppance, as the police will not hold back.
    Those that do show won’t be the genuine workers and union members that had their protest hijacked by those looking for trouble.
    That leaves the idiots to wear the brunt of Victoria Police.
    Doubt they will show though because without the mob they are all cowards.
    Be interesting watching.

  40. Gee all the action is in Vic at the moment, isn’t it. Hope you’re all ok down there and there’s not too much damage.

    Are we going to be treated to another day of morons marching around Melbourne?

  42. Xi says China will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad….
    And…

    China represents more than a quarter of all global carbon emissions, and it has spent tens of billions of dollars to build coal power facilities in 152 countries over the past decade through its Belt and Road Initiative. Roughly 70% of the coal plants built globally now rely on Chinese funding.

    So no more OS power stations, that should screw the Country Party .

  44. Been There says:
    Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 9:42 am

    Those that do show won’t be the genuine workers and union members that had their protest hijacked by those looking for trouble.
    _____________
    Your prescience is astounding. To be able to see through the mist of time, to view a large crowd, and to accurately determine the vocational make up of the seething masses is incredible.

  47. Your prescience is astounding. To be able to see through the mist of time, to view a large crowd, and to accurately determine the vocational make up of the seething masses is incredible.

    What a stupid fucking comment. It is clearly implicit that this is “in Been There’s opinion…” as is almost everything posted here, witness accounts of earthquakes not withstanding.

  50. Suffice too say IMO PJK is spot on with his criticism of the A-T-M government, and the xenophobic role that various media commentators have played in stoking the regressive, xenophobic and strategic stupidity on offer.

    It has to be said, once again for the hard of thinking, the issue is not a binary ‘china good’ or ‘china bad’. It never has been. Why has it been such a rude shock for our conservative leaders and their adjacent media commentators to discover – after five decades of bi-lateral relations – to ‘wake up and discover’ that China was run by the ChiComms?

    The fact that it has been an authoritarian communist regime has been hard baked into my thinking since Tiananmen Square. The degree that both sides of politics (but especially the Liberals it must be pointed out) have gorged themselves on political donations from Chinese ex pat business owners that either have close ties to the regime, or are uncomfortably adjacent to those interests, is both alarming and appalling.

    The degree of naivety on display from the mid Howard years until about five years ago by Liberal politicians in relation to strategic asset sales such as the port of Darwin, the NSW Liberal Government playing footsies with the ChiComms over the privatisation of the State’s electricity grid (who can forget the calls of ‘racism’ levelled against NSW labor because they pointed out the obvious security concerns over THAT – often by the very same liberal politicians and adjacent media commentators who are beating the war drums the hardest now), partnering with ChiComm adjacent companies on telecommunication projects (only to abruptly tell said telcos to GGFed), is to contrasted with the way that the conservatives and said media proxies have lurched to the other extreme.

    IMO we should always be skeptical about the motivations of all foreign countries, because to some degree they will have different strategic interests to our own. When it comes to authoritarian regimes we should be downright cynical. None of THAT however justifies signing up so blindly, and so totally to the most risky and dangerous foreign policy gambit that America has ever undertaken.

    Let’s not delude ourselves that America is any way motivated by notions of democracy and human rights. Such pretensions do not sit with its embrace of Saudi Arabia, its total support for Israel, including ist weakness on settler land grabs, its perennial support of mass murdering clerico-fascist regimes in Latin America and so on. America wants to counter and contain China for no other reason that it fears becoming ‘No2’ on the international stage. This is all about American Pride and Prestige.

    Regardless of what one thinks about the plight of democracy in Taiwan and HongKong, or then fate of Tibet or the Uyghurs, or the perennial games of footsie that both India and China play over their common border, none of those matters in any way threatened Australia. Not a single one. Yet we have gone out of our way to make China – of all countries – the most likely country that we will go to war with. Along the way we have set about – whether by blunder of design – to wreck our hitherto extremely robust relationship. A relationship that stood alongside Medicare as a Labor monument: notwithstanding the LNP’s ChiComm obsequiousness (1996-2017, RIP) a relationship underpinned by genuine institutional safeguards and mechanisms that were specifically designed and developed for TODAY – a period that the pioneers and custodians of Australia’s foreign policy relationship with China foresaw: the inevitable friction between our historical treaty ally and the most important country in our region. but instead of engaging those institutions to their intended task they have been cast aside.

    Instead of engaging WITH China via APEC, the G20 and the UN itself, we are directly triangulating against China via the G7, the Quad and now AUKUS. And to what end? china will back down? Why would it? It might come as a shock to the China-Hawks out there but China actually has more friends than the Anglosphere AUKUS crowd in the global community. Whilst about a quarter of china’s exports to the Anglosphere, the other approx 75% are extremely evenly spread across the globe.

    Part of our delusions at the moment seem to centre on the assumption that China really needs our ore; that china faces internal headwinds with its economy; China has overreached itself; china has an aging population. Somehow, those forces – in combination with this ‘containment’ policy will see the ChiComms kow-tow. Doesn’t that all sound … a bit far fetched? China has already stockpiled our ore. china has already demonstrated it is prepared to take a hit on price and has developed other supply chains (cost be damned), all economies face headwinds as the grow – China is due theirs – but that doesn’t exactly equate to a complete Soviet Union style collapse, does it? despite its alleged aging population, it has more citizens in each of the younger age categories than any other country on the planet bar India. The trend to move the less wealthy rural population into urban jobs is actually made easier by the fact china does not have to employ 7 children for every mother (unlike say the situation facing Ethiopia where there are no more room for agricultural employment growth, get farming couples have on average 7 children that make it to adulthood). Moreover the trend towards increased industrial automation is aided by the fact that china doesn’t have an excessive surplus of youngsters.

    So, if the ‘china containment’ policy is unlikely to work economically to bring the yellow horde to heal, what about the military gambit?

    First question though, why is it in Australia’s interest to counter china militarily?

    Second question? Is it likely to work?

    Third Question? Are the possible risks worth the possible rewards for Australia in seeking to join with America in countering china?

    We are working on a clear assumption that the answer to all those questions favours the American policy. i think this assumption is dead wrong on all counts. I also think that the consequences of this policy are likely to be measured in degrees of catastrophe – not just to Australia and Australians – but to every living thing on this planet. this blunder risks becoming the sum of all our fears.

    It pains me to say this, but Labor has been rather directionless on all of this. I don’t think Penny Wong deserves to be singled out, though. In fact the slide started under Gillard, when she went gaga for Obama (and whose ear wormtongue Biden had turned on China by 2011-12 alas).

    However, I am also hopeful that there is a pathway back to some bipartisan sanity over the coming decade. However, the sentiments of warmongers like C@t within the Party seem to have taken hold, and weeding those out will be more difficult than getting rid of feral privet.

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