The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.
With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.
The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:
The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.
As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.
On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.
Oops! That’s a first for me – a double post. Sorry.
Looks like Scott is hoisting the flag to see who salutes – stenographer Coorey the vehicle…
Phillip Coorey
Phillip Coorey
Political editor
Sep 22, 2021 – 5.00am
Funding for Coalition election promises will be kept secret in the mid-year budget update due for release in December, as the government works up the option of a March poll.
Ministers are currently preparing budget submissions for consideration by the Expenditure Review Committee (ERC) for inclusion in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
…..
Before calling a May election in 2019, Scott Morrison brought the budget forward by a month to April 2 to use its tax cuts and forecast return to surplus as a springboard for the election campaign called just a week later.
The government had been harbouring similar plans this time around, but the uncertainties caused by COVID-19 and the Coalition’s own unpopularity in the polls have caused a rethink with a March poll now a viable option.
One school of thought inside government is that there would be little point in handing down another budget given it would be a sea of red ink and there would be next to no capacity for any vote buying spending promises, more so given the stage three tax cuts are already legislated to begin on July 1, 2024, and are factored into the existing budget bottom line.
Ministers say Mr Morrison is “holding his cards close to his chest” as to the election timing but if he has a “bad January”, said one, that would make a May election more likely. Even so, the government would be unlikely to want to hand down another budget.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/government-to-add-election-war-chest-to-myefo-20210921-p58tfq
As Sally McManus says in her piece, we have a billionaire together with Craig Kelly sending millions of texts to people espousing anti vax messages etc.
Where are Morrison and co denouncing this shit.
Rhetorical question………
ItzaDream @ #NaN Wednesday, September 22nd, 2021 – 7:49 am
The civil war in The Nationals is an interesting one to watch from the sidelines. Oh to be a fly on the wall in their Whats App group. 😀
sprocket_,
Labor has a ready-made campaign if that’s the case. RORTS! 🙂
C@t
Fancy a useless piece of excrement such as Christensen thinking this is okay.
Is there one person in the coalition govt that had any redeeming features?
Again rhetorical question……..
Morrison wouldn’t recognise “transparency and loyalty” if he even saw them. They’re not in his nature.
Labor captain’s pick for Hunter followed sexually suggestive, gun-toting Instagram profiles
Ex-Olympic shooter and coalminer Daniel Repacholi deleted his account and apologised for previous online posts when preselected for the federal NSW seat.
Clever choice.
Vic,
You’d hope Joyce or Morrison would pull Christensen into line but they, like Trump, are becoming beholden to their whack job base.
Sceptic @ #NaN Wednesday, September 22nd, 2021 – 8:09 am
Maybe not for you. But for the ordinary Hunter voter. Different equation.
Hunt is claiming that he “invited” Pfizer to approach TGA for approval to vaccinate 5-11 yo’s.
In the normal course of events, the company would have applied to TGA anyway.
Perhaps, given the sour relationship between the Morrison government and Pfizer, he had to beg them to do so.
It’s back to the good old days of empire.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fworld%2Fthe-times%2Fbritains-nuclear-submarines-to-use-australia-as-base-for-indopacific-presence%2Fnews-story%2Ff60bf82ff53f9a4cff9053a1e8ac1891&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 7:14 am
Labor placed all its bets on the theme that the vaccine roll-out was botched after the media destroyed the viability of AZ.
Lars always a sucker for the rope-a-dope strategy…
”
You have to give credit to L’arse credit. He always propagated that Vaccine rollout and Higgins issues will go away by October 2021 and never wavered from that belief.
Gareth’s right, Lizzie. You need somebody who can pick up the racist/sexist vote. Whatever it takes, as that old Labor hero Richo used to espouse.
Baaad poll all round this one. Everyone goes backwards except Clive and Pauline! And yeah it seems to be way out of whack with what Newspoll and Morgan are saying. Let’s hope they’re right and Resolve is way off. Last thing we need is for the far-right crazies to start gaining going into an election campaign.
Stuart
I suppose he’ll fit in well with the other misogynists in Parl.
Think I be safer in China than living with these pack of rats who are protesting
C@
You seem to be assuming the ‘ordinary Hunter voter’ is a gun loving coal miner.
Instead of fighting over the bogan vote* and trying to steal votes from One Nation, they could aim at the ones who aren’t. (Hint: women vote and in most electorates are at least 50% of the population…)
*Some of my best friends are bogans, and given my background, I SHOULD be one, so don’t @ me.
“Sadly, he’s so embedded in China he can no longer see the wood for the trees.”
***
Again you describe your own situation perfectly, just swap China for America. Perhaps you and he should both try and look at things from other perspectives. Neither of the superpowers (China is pretty much there now) are worthy of such unquestioning devotion and support.
New South Wales is turning to other states and overseas to recruit nurses to help cope with the predicted peak in Covid cases requiring hospitalisation next month, with some regional hospitals offering generous travel and pay incentives.
Guardian Australia understands the NSW health department is in discussions with the commonwealth about fast-tracking the credentialing of overseas qualifications to make it easier for foreign nurses to start work.
Intensive care and emergency department nurses are understood to be most in demand.
Sydney hospitals plan to abandon their nurse-to-patient ratios in ICU as pressure grows and the NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian has acknowledged the hospital system will become “technically overwhelmed” in mid-October.
NSW’s private hospital workforce and bed capacity has already been incorporated into the public Covid response in recent weeks, and recently retired nurses have been recalled and other nurses upskilled for ICU work.
A NSW Health spokesman confirmed “the commonwealth is working closely with NSW Health to lend support in this endeavour, particularly as the state approaches the expected peak hospitalisation period”.
National MPs, including former leader Michael McCormack, have taken aim at controversial colleague George Christensen, accusing him of “stirring up” violent mobs at anti-lockdown protests and using his profile as a government MP to validate their behaviour.
Mr McCormack said the controversial backbench MP needed to think “long and hard” about his actions and should publicly apologise for several incendiary statements on social media, which included calling for the arrest of two Victoria Police officers for using “excessive force” at protests at the weekend.
Firefox
I would think that insisting voters nominate a choice would mean that many default to the way they voted in the last election because they really haven’t even started thinking about politics yet.
“So it’s ok for Australia to acquire French diesel powered submarines, due to become available in ~15 years, because the PRC can live with that, but not okay for Australia to acquire US/UK nuclear powered submarines, due to become available in ~2o years, because the PRC will be upset about it?”
***
Frankly, I couldn’t give a rats what China thinks about which subs we are getting. The problem here is that we are importing nuclear reactors to power the damn things. That’s what’s not ok.
lizzie says:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 8:27 am
From the replies I got on social media it’s mostly men in the 20-40 age group who are not vaccinated and are aggressive .
One guy on twitter said he rather choose violence
What the fuck Scomo did to this country
Anybody who trusts the LNP to prosecute a war against a major power has not paid attention to their inability to manage anything no matter how trifling. Every day they get away with abysmal management for which the ALP would be hounded for eternity. Yet very stupid people seem hardwired into going along with this stuff. Clive Palmer has managed to tap into an even dumber subset. Anyway in reality the LNP wouldn’t be able to manage a chook raffle in proximity to the Steggles factory ( my feeling is Zali might be able to though) although they do manage to turn every initiative into a tax dodge or benefits scheme for the already financially well endowed. life is flabbergasting.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 8:11 am
Is that the same excuse the LNP use to justify Christensen over the years
Pathetic …. Just like Richos whatever ever it takes
‘Zerlo says:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 8:21 am
Think I be safer in China than living with these pack of rats who are protesting’
_________________________________________
That pack of rats would be beaten up as part BAU in China. They would then be executed or imprisoned in China. If only imprisoned they would be abused as slave labourers, perhaps having their organs harvested as part of the fun.
Last week in the Republican Party:
https://youtu.be/8dHJah4YMug
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 8:34 am
Fuck you BW
Racist prick
Beguiledagain- thanks for the link to Trudeau’s victory speech. He is impressive. I find it surprising that the ability of Australia’s political leaders to inspire and speak to the era they’re in is so poor. Since Keating, on that dimension PMs have fallen somewhere in the range between dismal and pedestrian. Though I guess when you look at national leaders across the world it makes you realise that capacity for inspirational leadership – or at least an appearance of it – is a rarer commodity than you might think. I looked at the live coverage of the Canadian election for a while. I was struck by the diversity of both the candidates (as they went through results riding by riding) and the broadcast presenters- which I think was something you’d mentioned. Australia is a very diverse country but that’s not showing up very much in the professional political or media classes so far.
It’s odd that one of the stories Australia tells itself is that it has an egalitarian culture. Jack’s as good as his master (but you never hear about Jacqueline as being as good as her master/mistress which perhaps tells you something). As you commented, though Canada seems to have notably more progressive values (even if it’s voting system leaves much to be desired).
Where is the moderation in this blog
Ya gotta love Keating …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/keating-turns-fury-on-labor-and-government-over-aukus-deal-20210921-p58tlc.html
He’s clearly no supporter of Labor’s #MehToo strategy.
A few of our more vociferous Labor Sinophobes here could usefully take note.
”
After mishandling its cancellation of the French submarines contract, the Morrison government is making things worse by suggesting the French really must have, or should have, known what was coming. Michelle Grattan says Morrison and Macron need to talk.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-and-macron-need-to-talk-168390
”
Macron is not taking any calls from Biden yet as US press secretary Jen Psaki put it in diplomatic language and he is not attending UN General Meeting of leaders in New York now. This is all happening when France is Senior NATO country. So what chance is there for a Macron and Morrison meeting. I read somewhere that infact Australia is hoping to have improvement in its relations with France after next year’s French Presidential elections meaning Macron will lose those elections and LNP will win next year federal election and it can deal with a new President, who will automatically swallow all the betrayal and humiliation heaped on France by Australia and sing Kumbaya.
German Chancellor is also not attending UN General meeting because of scheduled German elections this month. So without the 2 power houses of EU, I don’t know how there can be any rapprochement with EU by Australia. Yeah I forgot that our great Trade Minister Dan Tehan is going to France to cast a spell of magic on French leaders.
“Gareth’s right, Lizzie. You need somebody who can pick up the racist/sexist vote. Whatever it takes, as that old Labor hero Richo used to espouse.”
***
Exactly. Running a coal miner who’s promoting the industry is bad enough, but surely they could have found one a little bit better than this guy. Sounds like a bit of nasty pasty.
What are the strongest telltale signs that this construction protest has been coopted by neo-nazis and the like? I would assume Shorten has a good reason for making the claim. Is it just the clean hi-vis?
Did Jen make this?
Isn’t there a rule about not “desecrating” the flag? Or is that only in US?
“I would think that insisting voters nominate a choice would mean that many default to the way they voted in the last election because they really haven’t even started thinking about politics yet.”
***
Maybe but I reckon a lot of people have their minds focused on “pandemic politics” right now which is a bit concerning given the messaging that Clive and Pauline are putting out there. They’re inflaming fear, hatred, and division as they always do, only this time it’s over lockdowns, masks, and vaccinations. Oh and chuck in a whole lot of racism towards China while you’re at it – that one always works a treat for Pauline.
bonza, looks like a neo nazi ?
‘We’re in lockstep’: Biden hails Australia at meeting with Morrison
US President Joe Biden has declared Australia is America’s closest and most reliable ally during his first one-on-one meeting with Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
Biden and Morrison sat down in New York for their much-anticipated meeting as European leaders intensified their criticisms of Australia and the US for breaking the $90 billion contract with France to build a fleet of submarines.
…
Biden referred to the Prime Minister as “Scott” during a brief exchange before the meeting. At a virtual press conference last week he appeared to forget Morrison’s name and described him as “that fella Down Under”.
“The United States has no closer or more reliable ally than Australia – our nations have been together for a long time,” Biden said as Morrison sat beside him at the Intercontinental New York Barclay hotel in Manhattan shortly after the President’s address to the United Nations.
“The United States and Australia are working in lockstep on the challenges that I laid out today in my speech to the United Nations: ending COVID, addressing the climate crisis, defending democracy and shaping the rules of the road for the 21st century.
“Because I mean what I said: we are at an inflection point. Things are changing. We can grasp the change and deal with it or be left behind, all of us.”
Addressing Biden directly, Morrison said: “I want to thank you for your leadership and your focus on the Indo-Pacific region. There’s no doubt you get it.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/we-re-in-lockstep-biden-hails-australia-at-meeting-with-morrison-20210922-p58tnf.html
*cringe*
A very forthright Dan Andrews today.
Can you imagine a Prime Minister Bandt rocking up to the Whitehouse?
Didn’t think so
”
Sarah Martin tells us that Labor candidate Daniel Repacholi deleted his Instagram account that followed a range of accounts that included naked women posing with assault rifles and near-naked women in sexually provocative poses after he was selected by the party to run for the federal seat of Hunter, in New South Wales. Labor shot in its own foot, by the look of it!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/22/labor-captains-pick-for-hunter-followed-sexually-suggestive-gun-toting-instagram-profiles
lizziesays:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 7:49 am
Is this the “quality” Labor should be looking for?
The former Olympic shooter and coalminer, described by outgoing Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon as a “normal larrikin Australian”, has already been forced to apologise for some of his social media activity, including describing India as a “shit hole” on his return from the Commonwealth Games in 2010.
”
Looks like ALP has given up on this seat. If they win this seat they will ein in a landslide and nobody is contemplating that.
“Xi has by now judicially murdered well over over 30,000 of his enemies.”
***
Next minute…
max says:
Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 8:38 am
Beguiledagain- thanks for the link to Trudeau’s victory speech.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5533350
(punch the mute button at the bottom of the video)
———————————————————-
Thank you Max. I would suggest that every political speech writer and every neophyte politician should watch it.
I’ve seen a lot of them over the past 70 years and this stands out for content in difficult circumstances (his gamble for a majority didn’t succeed), tone, timing and delivery.
As you noted, take a look at the Toronto area riding results on the right of the screen to see the amazing diversity of candidates and the multi-cultural and gender demographic.
Unlike other countries like Australia that boast about multi-culturalism with a tiny number of visible minority MP’s, Canada’s Parliament is a true reflection of the country.
Canadians should be extremely proud of the peaceful cultural diversity of their home in a world beset by racial and ethnic turmoil.
Bwave Sir Robin.
.
“Can you imagine a Prime Minister Bandt rocking up to the Whitehouse?”
***
Hell no. Why would he want to perform these acts of political falaciation with a bunch of war criminals?
This political disruption may have its original sources here:
“Peter Thiel is the Valley’s true idol — the single person whom tech’s young aspirants and millennial moguls most seek to flatter and to emulate, the cult leader of the cult of disruption.”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/peter-thiel-silicon-valley-contrarian-max-chafkin.html