The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.
For the time being, there is the following:
• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.
• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.
TPOF
Excellent observation.
Victoria @ #173 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:14 am
Yep, it’s just the sort of slimy allusion Player One retails on here.
Player One says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:11 am
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #783 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:08 am
And your continued reference to her as “KKK” is pathetic and offensive.
I guess you could ask her to change her name. Let me know how you go.
______________________________________
I guess you could tell us where the extra K came from, you ugly piece of work.
Exactly, Ven @ 11.15am. Suspiciously silent about that, aren’t they?
I’ll take Justice Nicholson’s opinion over those two s***y B commenters any day:
Alastair Nicholson
@alasnich
The fault for the problem of a seat for Kristina Keneally is partly the antique structure of the NSW ALP and partly because she is female. She is one of the party’s most effective front benchers and if she was male there would be no question of her not getting a HOR seat.
And this is her actual name:
“Kristina Marie Kerscher Keneally”
Kersher is her birth surname.
Maybe it is best That Gladys doesn’t front the morning press conferences.. a lot less Gaslighting with resultant improvement in the Staes mental health outcome.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #171 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:14 am
And now with the added plus of a Socially Democratic governing coalition! 🙂
Ok, well very good that the deaths are down in NSW. This is one number you cannot fudge.
Now, we are dealing with small numbers that bounce around, so it may just be a good day.
The numbers of COVID infections do look like they have stopped rising, although this could change if the rates go up in non-locked down areas.
More personally, I think we may be heading for a lockdown in Redfern / Waterloo.
C@t, I definitely want to go to Morocco!
White House says Biden wants Quad leaders to address ‘climate crisis’
Maybe SfM will just stop at Hawaii & not bother with Washington leg of his trip.
C@tmomma @ #811 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:19 am
In my experience the Government of a country has little impact on your experiences when visiting.
TPOF,
Not to mention Laura Tingle, whose father started The Shooters and Fishers Party.
Quade Cooper must be hoping some of Alex Hawke’s popularity rubs off on him before his next game.
I hope Quade doesn’t feel embarrassed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/citizenship-rules-changed-quade-cooper-can-become-aussie/100459276
If you were Tu Lee, why would you bother putting your hand up again to run for office, what is the point really when favours are always done for the Keneallys of this world? Labor likes to preach ethnic diversity, but this current episode has proven how hollow this commitment really is. I doubt too that the candidates preselected for must win seats in NSW will be anything more than the usual union hacks or political staffers
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #184 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:23 am
I was making that statement through the lens of being socially progressive in their policies, thus being less afraid, as a Western woman, of coming across someone who might harass me if I wasn’t being socially conservative in my dress or other behaviour, like my son walking behind me(which he does because he dawdles with his phone), instead of me behind him.
Now, as I haven’t been there I guess I’ll find out but am simply reassured that such fears will likely be unfounded now.
Evan @ #187 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:24 am
Or big donors, like Evan Thornley, who were simply unsuited to politics.*
* not saying YOU are he.
I dislike this sort of stuff because of the opportunity cost.
It would be far better to purchase and set aside reasonable quality ecosystems or to do ecosystem repair than spend money on this sort of thing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/woolly-mammoth-resurrection-colossal-bioscience/100459342
Evan @ #817 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:24 am
Because you believed you had something to offer and weren’t just on some vanity trip.
If we all gave up after not succeeding the first time, then we wouldn’t achieve much in our lives.
Ven @ #799 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:15 am
I don’t see the relevance. Contesting preselection is not what KKK did. Quite the opposite – she was parachuted in by head office precisely so she would not have to do so.
Or have I misunderstood your point?
reason to believe that peak levels of new cases in NSW have been broadly reached – no celebration dances, but please let this be true. A natural recession from peak plus vax drive impact augurs well for October/November. Overlay this with responsible opening up geared around the vaccinated first, and therein lies a pathway back to normality in 2022.
the relative credit/blame for this latest experience and our overall covid experience in this country is obviously a matter of perspective. Without hoping to be accused of backfilling a pre-existing political disposition, i do believe the next period offers opportunity for the incumbent federal and state governments to turn around current unpopularity and that whilst oppositions have benefitted in the polls at current times they havent done much to entrench themselves as an alternative as circumstances gradually change.
unless of course one believes that the incumbents are dead in the water because things are irretrievably screwed (a mere temporary flatline blip in the continuing exponential increase of cases) or that they are committed to irresponsible premature restriction abandonment. Mistakes have been made, no doubt – whether Australia is viewed by its own as a catastrophe or incredibly fortunate is also a matter of perspective, these things tend to get harshly judged on the margin rather than on the average. My own view is that the average tends to favour the incumbents, and the margin is only going to move in their favour from here also.
“Kersher is her birth surname”
I assume maiden name is a bit PC these days. Or anti PC. Or anti something or other.
TPOF @ #802 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:17 am
Which K? Those are her initials.
UK Cartoons – now that my NBN has recovered…
”
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:12 am
Ven
The irony is that the error was a commonwealth one. Nothing to do with the states.
But of course as per usual Taylor made omits this key information.
When one is a partisan hack, disinformation is part of the game for them.
Once again says a lot about them
”
Victoria
I mean it when I say that it is hard for me to believe that almost 80% of NSW population has first dose of vaccination. Maybe it is correct maybe it is not. Just think about . How to believe a person who put so much emphasis on vaccination numbers and gaslighted COVID cases. I know I am being conspitorial.
C@t, didn’t the long departed poster Glen, aka Gary Sparrow, also post as Evan?
Roy Orbison @ #161 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:33 am
Calling it a “maiden name” certainly is. You think a woman’s social standing is a function of her marital status? Chauvinist pig. 😛
‘Expat Follower says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:32 am
…
the relative credit/blame for this latest experience and our overall covid experience in this country is obviously a matter of perspective.
…’
________________________
It is a matter of fact. Morrison delayed getting vaccines. Berejiklian delayed her lock ups and then faffed around with their implementation. Both indulged in divisive political bastardy with their Covid messaging as a matter of course.
Both have blood on their hands.
They must resign.
C@tmomma @ #818 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:26 am
Those cultural changes don’t happen with a change of Government.
It’s a varied country with very conservative areas and other more progressive ones.
The main thing to remember is that it is their country and you are a visitor, so you should be respectful of the local cultural practices.
For the first time in this outbreak, Reff in NSW has dropped below 1.0. I’m a bit surprised how quickly the numbers have dropped in the last 3 days, but that’s the data. The models predicting a peak in infections about now, with a continuing increase in hospitalisations and ICU for another few weeks before they too fall, look to be spot on. The only concern might be falling vaccination rates plus some complacency with Covid rules compliance creeping in. And in other good news, the alarmingly high Reff in Vic. dropped a fair bit today.
What does all this mean for the politics of Covid? Do voters remember how we got into this mess, or just forget about it and get on with their lives as the worst of the crisis hopefully fades into the past? I’ve got no idea, we don’t know how the Covid story ends yet. But I’d guess the LNP is feeling a bit more relaxed today than a week ago.
I do hope Labor preselects someone actually decent in Banks, because that seat is winnable next time. Not sure about Lindsay, that will be a harder ask.
The NSW curve finally seems to be flattening, but there’s a way to go yet and things can quickly go pear-shaped.
Fulvio Sammut @ #198 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:37 am
You and your fantastic memory might be onto something there, FS. The posts certainly have that flavour to them. 🙂
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #201 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:38 am
I’ll probably wear demure clothing anyway, just to hide the obvious defects of aging on my body. 🙂
a r @ #829 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:37 am
Well she was a maiden for at least some of the period that it was her surname.
Wasn’t Glen the founder and only member of the Bruce Billson fan club?
I found this bit of information today, ‘interesting’:
NSW had declines on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday last week and then a significant rise on Wednesday.
Saturdays are the worst followed by Wednesdays
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #207 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:43 am
And then Ben Keneally bowled the maiden over. Boom tish! 😀
FTFY.
Some said at the time that he was Bruce Billson.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:23 am
TPOF,
Not to mention Laura Tingle, whose father started The Shooters and Fishers Party.
”
I thought he was National party supporter/ MP.
Boerwar – we know your perspective. As pure backfill of pre-disposition, its not particularly representative of whats going to determine the political fates going into election cycle
Paramatta – levels of baseball bat versus ‘yknow weve actually come out of this luckier than most’, agree we shall have to see. Certainly the more open we can responsibly be by early 2022 the better the Libs will be off for it (dont need to be an expert to predict this). It poses the ALP in a challenging position, opposing it i dont think will play to their electoral interests and me-too’ing just doesnt distinguish them much. I wish they had done more over this period to elevate themselves. My feeling is that they are relying on baseball bats, and am not confident at all these will remain out as people get their lives back (present permanently enraged company excepted of course)
@Shellbell
At least we have that to look forward to, lol.
Honestly, while I believe Morrison is seriously wounded electorally, any sign of positive news is welcomed – regardless of whether the public plays ball or not.
”
Evansays:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:24 am
If you were Tu Lee, why would you bother putting your hand up again to run for office, what is the point really when favours are always done for the Keneallys of this world? Labor likes to preach ethnic diversity, but this current episode has proven how hollow this commitment really is. I doubt too that the candidates preselected for must win seats in NSW will be anything more than the usual union hacks or political staffers
”
Evan
What is your opinion on William Bowe report in this thread on Liberal party as follows:
“The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
“
Ven @ #214 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:48 am
Which he left to form The Shooters and Fishers Party when the Nationals supported John Howard’s Gun Laws.
Graph from the Guardian:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/aus/2020/yacht-charter-v19/index.html?key=1t3l50GPkIib2lzPRfXlVW4P4Z-xYak3VwjhZH3T6Rw4&location=docsdata
Looks hopeful, but I can still see a weekly cycle in that data, which suggests that the next three days cases may be on the rise again.
Whatever happens, the doubling time has significantly slowed. A slow exponential growth will still have a doubling time, but much easier to cope with.
But a turnaround looks close, it it is not already here.
Someone should tell Albo to stop digging …
Seems the Greens are an invention of the Liberals for the express purpose of trolling Labor