The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.
For the time being, there is the following:
• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.
• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.
Katy Gallagher
@SenKatyG
Another consultancy contract worth >$1m entered into by the Morrison Govt. All we know is that it’s for 6 months of ‘support services’.
I’ve lodged questions asking exactly what is being done + why there’s no in-house capacity. Let’s see how long they take to respond
guytaur,
Tu Le should have been making her case internally through the forums of the Labor Party. You know, like adults and not Hayes Brothers’ puppets do.
“The question has been raised. Would there be as much aggro if Kristina was a male?”
***
If the man’s name was Morris Iemma or Nathan Rees, then yes, absolutely.
As my son said to me today about facebook, it is okay if you don’t spend all day on it and don’t get sucked into the groups run by the mouth breathers.
Victoria
Facebook is bad. Congress is addressing it for good reason.
Just remember it’s the wholistic bubble created for people that caters to news they like that’s the problem. No serving up of fact that’s contrarian so Facebook can be part of the fact denial bubble on both the left and right.
zoomster @ #72 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:55 am
Three people I play tennis with are on the anti-vax train to various degrees. They let loose a flurry of nonsense yesterday:
– Children shouldn’t be vaccinated because there’s “no health benefit” for them and too much risk
– Children should be encouraged to catch covid, so that they can recover and be done with it
– Vaccination won’t stop you from getting covid (somewhat true), and if you get covid naturally you’ll be “immune for life” (not at all true)
– The covid vaccines are completely untested and we’re all being used as guinea pigs
– Testing of covid vaccines found a 16% drop in fertility in rodents
– Only 1000 Australians have died of covid, and 200,000 Australians die every year, so covid isn’t that deadly; look at how many suicides we have!
It was a younger guy pushing the “don’t vaccinate children” line, and he was at least advocating vaccination for older people. And then the two older ladies were just completely opposed.
Not impressed. But I guess you don’t have to be smart to play tennis.
Matthew Doran says that the Nats are refusing to criticise George Christensen for his promotion of Ivermectin. David Littleproud “We don’t have to agree on everything.”
You’d think that when it’s a Pandemic that is endangering the nation’s health and First Nations people as well as its financial stability, the Nats might grow up and take a stand.
Cat
It’s not a cult. It’s not going to the media to raise her profile that’s the problem. It’s not even validly talking about the issues.
The problem for her is independence. The problem for her is to avoid having to get to the point of saying I am no ones puppet.
For those who want to venture into the world of the unvaccinated Trumpers and what happens to them. At last count there were around 70,000,000 of them so this will be a thing for a while but for now, hours and hours of entertainment for the whole family. They say that there are some disasters one can’t look away from. This is one of them.
https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/
a r
I think that the original statements that Covid is no worse than the flu made a comfortable starting position for these people, and then all the misinformation has built on that.
lizzie,
I’d rather say it’s about time David Littleproud grew a pair.
There’s a difference between supporting a diversity of nuanced opinions that are factually-based, and failing to criticise outright garbage information that is affecting people’s lives.
Btw do people realise the software error re indigenous vaccination rates was a commonwealth one. Not due to the states
And you know what the insanely funny thing is? As a r pointed out, there are people criticising the vaccine for causing reduced sperm count, when it’s actually Ivermectin that has that effect on humans when veterinary strength product is consumed!
‘A bunch of lies’: CNN’s Erin Burnett shreds Trump for preemptively declaring California recall ‘rigged’
On Monday’s edition of CNN’s “OutFront,” anchor Erin Burnett broke down the new efforts by former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies to try to undermine the legitimacy of the California recall election result — before it has even happened.
“It boils down to if you lose an election, you didn’t actually lose,” said Burnett. “It was voter fraud. It was rigged, even when it wasn’t. And the night before the recall election, the former president is stirring the pot with the very familiar message. Here he is. ‘Does anybody believe the California recall election isn’t rigged? Millions and millions of mail-in ballots will make this another giant election scam? No different but less blatant than the 2020 election scam.'”
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-california-recall-lies/
This comment gets the Leigh Sales thing about right:
Dr. Daniel S. Garcia
@DrDanGarcia
·
20m
Hi Charlotte (another journo defending Leigh Sales),
I couldn’t agree more that people are bullied on Twitter because people don’t agree with each other.
My point is that fair criticism of opinions is not bullying and to confound the two is a disingenuous defense to shield oneself from honest, well-meaning feedback.
It would be good to know how many covid anti-vaxxers have had the annual flu jab and other vaccinations. For instance, would they refuse a tetanus injection if they received a deep cut?
I am so annoyed at how the rabid right-wingers here, in the US and elsewhere have managed to influence so many people to act against their own health interests and threaten the health and the lives of everyone else.
As for Palmer and Kelly…
Labor simply needs to turn the discussion around re diversity within the party.
Albanese and others , every time they are interviewed, need to gush with enthusiasm at the passion and commitment of the young lawyer and encourage her to keep going as she will have a strong future within the party. Continue to push the gender and ethnic diversity that is already there and acknowledge more will be done. What the media want is just one labor identity to rip into her and off they will go. Support her and encourage her and cut off any point of attack.
Support Keneally for the seat and encourage the young lawyer and others to push the party forward.
Make it a positive.
Perhaps the rise of antivaxxers and assorted types has this cause. Trust in politicians and our ‘leaders’ and what they tell us has declined.They sure as hell have given us plenty of reason to believe they lie to us all the time……………….by lying to us all the time. With SFA trust in what you are being told by ‘authority’ then lots of room for purveyors of a different flavor of snake oil.
poroti,
There is some validity to that thesis, however, there comes a time, one would have thought, that those same people would prove themselves capable of sorting the factual wheat from the speculative and wrong chaff.
Also, I would point out that, a lot of the demagogues of misinformation that these people follow, ARE politicians.
C@tmomma
But they are seen as and make themselves out to be ‘outsiders’.
citizen,
It’s part of the, believe in religion and not science, global putsch.
I mean, have you heard Scott Morrison come out and deliver a rebuke about Ivermectin misinformation yet?
And to think that it was Australian researchers who started the whole Ivermectin ball rolling! 🙄 😡
poroti @ #145 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 10:47 am
All part of the shadow play that they engage in.
doyley
Albo gave a rather hesitant interview this morning. I got the feeling he was choosing his words very carefully, or perhaps not confident in what he was saying.
Cat
Bad actors become politicians to exploit lack of trust.
Then we are expected to call them honourable.
To get an idea of how to deal with it. Look at the past. Look at Labor before the DLP split. There are good lessons there to learn without ditching the DLP lessons.
That was a time Labor fought Snake Oil salesman and the conservatives. A time when Labor values were embraced by Australians.
Re: Leigh Sales, read her book and was left with that Yeah….nah! feeling. Something not right and methinks there is an over abundance of protesting.
Her interview m.o. changes too much between LNP and Labor interviews.
C@t
He’s too scared to take any position supporting the science.
lizzie,
I did not see that interview today.
From time to time Albanese can be hesitant for whatever reason. I think content is more the go on this issue atm. Perhaps trying out some new narrative ?
Was Albanese positive and encouraging towards Tu Le ? If so, good approach I believe.
Thank you.
1,127 NSW new cases and 2 deaths
So the furore over KKK is not because she is a white anglo being parachuted into a safe seat using an archaic and anti-democratic factional party process and displacing a local candidate of colour, it is because she is a woman?
Some people here seem to be getting very desperate in their attempts to deflect 🙁
doyley
This from the Guardian sounds far more positive on reading than Albo did in his delivery.
Increase in hospitalisations of 64 and ICU of 9
State vaccines are down as well at 27,000
Declining case numbers are very encouraging in NSW.
Hospitalisation and ICU rates not so much.
Player One @ #782 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:04 am
And your continued reference to her as “KKK” is pathetic and offensive.
lizzie,
That for that. Much appreciated.
That is the simple narrative labor needs to push each and every time the issue is discussed.
Thanks.
Election good news from Morocco!
The 2021 Moroccan general election was held on 8 September 2021 to elect 395 members of the House of Representatives. The National Rally of Independents led by Aziz Akhannouch won the most seats (102), a gain of 65 seats from the prior election. The liberal Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) took second place with 87 seats, a net loss of 15 seats. The centre-right Istiqlal Party gained 35 seats and took third place with 81 seats total. The governing Justice and Development Party won only 13 seats, a net loss of 112 seats for the party.
Turnout rose sharply from 43% in 2016 to 50.35% in 2021, the highest since the 2002 elections.[34][35]
The elections were won by the National Rally of Independents (RNI), led by Aziz Akhannouch, which won 102 seats, gaining 65. It was followed by the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), which won 87 seats, losing 15. In third place, the Istiqlal Party won 81, gaining 35 seats. The Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) won 34; the Popular Movement (MP), 28; the Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS), 22; the Constitutional Union (UC), 18; the Democratic and Social Movement (MDS), 5; the Front of Democratic Forces (FFD), 3 and the Alliance of the Left Federation (FGD), 1. The historic defeat of the Justice and Development Party (PJD) led the ruling party to win only 13 seats, thus losing 112, more than 90% of its seats and placing it in eighth place after winning the three previous elections. Saadeddine Othmani(PM before the election), also failed to win re-election in his constituency of Rabat. Two new parties entered: FFD with 3 deputies and PSU with one.
What are the testing rates? And are they testing in the right places? e.g.
”
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 9:52 am
I always thought there was something fishy about Vic’s Indigenous vaccination numbers.
”
I always thought there was something fishy about NSW first vaccine dose numbers. Maybe they are correct maybe there are not. I don’t know. It is hard to believe that almost 80% of NSW people had first dose of vaccination.
Barney ITB
Yep it truly is pathetic and offensive. It says a lot about the person posting it.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #159 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:08 am
What else do you expect from a defensive offensive Liberal voter?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #783 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:08 am
I guess you could ask her to change her name. Let me know how you go.
I want to go to Morocco one day. 🙂
Ven
The irony is that the error was a commonwealth one. Nothing to do with the states.
But of course as per usual Taylor made omits this key information.
When one is a partisan hack, disinformation is part of the game for them.
Once again says a lot about them
I just had a look at Leigh Sales’s very long complaint article in the ABC. I skimmed most of it, but this, about Lisa Millar caught my eye:
“They are built around the fact that her late father, Clarrie Millar, was a National Party MP. This apparently makes Lisa an LNP plant inside the ABC. This is not only insulting, and something that could be dismissed by even fleeting familiarity with Lisa’s impeccably impartial 30-year body of work, it is sexist to assume a woman’s politics are dictated by her father.
The so-called “progressives” levelling this accusation at Lisa were no doubt incensed by the disgusting insults directed at former prime minister Julia Gillard about her late father.”
Now, I don’t have a particular problem with Lisa Millar, but the assumptions here are just amazing.
First, the fake accusation of sexism – that because Lisa Millar is a woman and because her father was a National Party member, then it follows that it is sexism because she is influenced by his beliefs. I suppose a male who comes from a political background and is influenced by his father (or mother’s beliefs) can be accused of bias without claims of sexism!
Secondly, the link with what happened with Julia Gillard is just absurd and Leigh Sales, who calls herself a journalist and not a politician, should be utterly ashamed of herself for making the comparison. It is not accusations that Julia Gillard’s father influenced her political beliefs (which she proudly says is the case) but the sneering commentary by Alan Jones and his mates (echoed by the disgusting excuse for a human being then opposition leader) that raised our ire. Not only was Julia Gillard not a journalist, but the comparison is just plain wrong.
In my view the best journalist on ABC is a woman whose father and brother were both leading Liberal politicians. That’s Julia Baird. She runs rings around Sales and others of her ilk in seeing the heart of issues on the Drum, rather than just pursuing gotchas and worrying about how her ego looks when she is interviewing. She says in ‘Phosphorescence’ that her views have been deeply influenced by her parents, but it is because she looks at the issues in a kind but constructive way that she can tease out the real issues.
What I want to see from these political journalists is to ask the questions that get serious answers, and to press when the question simply isn’t answered. But not to interrupt when the answer is not the gotcha he or she was looking for. This isn’t happening.
Not that real abuse on Twitter is justified in any circumstances. it is ugly, painful and reflects the inadequacies of the posters, whichever side of the political spectrum they come from.
Player One @ #794 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:11 am
Who else refers to her in that way?
C@tmomma @ #796 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 9:12 am
Beautiful country and people, with food to die for.
What would the Nationals know about horse drenches?
Player one
You mean every single person with a middle name is referenced in this way.
Why havent you done this with every other politician that has a middle name?
Dont have to answer. I already know why.
And besides it reflects all on you and no one else.
If the shoe fits and all that…..
”
Firefox2says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 9:48 am
“The Hayes brothers seem quite parred to offer Tu Le up on the sacrificial alter to their own inflected ego”
***
I just don’t understand why this whole mess couldn’t have been avoided. Surely it would have been smarter just to leave KK in the Senate and avoid all the negative media coverage that follows her wherever she goes.
The truth is that it is highly likely that either Tu Le or KK would win the seat as Labor holds it by a very large margin. Labor doesn’t need KK running in Fowler in order to win it, thus putting her into the spotlight there is only causing damage elsewhere. Yes, she will almost certainly win Fowler, but at what cost? Tu Le would almost certainly win it too but doesn’t carry with her a tonne of baggage like KK does. And all this so Deb O’Neill can have the top spot in the Senate? It makes no sense.
”
Firefox2
It is very hard to take you or P1 very seriously when did not comment anything about what William Bowe posted in this thread as below about Liberal party.
“The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard”