The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.
For the time being, there is the following:
• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.
• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.
Why Scrott will adopt “net zero by 2050′ . Two perfect reasons for him to do so.
.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covering-climate-now-the-dangerous-flaws-in-our-net-zero-by-2050-goal/57HPLPKF7GLZOQF26DDVWJPBQE/
COVID ravages the Republican Party as 21 out of 23 most infected states voted for Trump
Last week, the hashtag “GOPDeathCult” was trending on social media as Republican governors continued to refuse to take precautions to keep their states safe. The recent COVID-19 numbers now show that out of the 23 worst states for the virus in the country, 21 of them voted for Donald Trump in the last election.
Sadly, the same high numbers for COVID cases apply to COVID deaths. Of the 18 states that have higher death rates than the national average, 14 voted for Trump. For vaccinations, the statistic shows the 17 least-vaccinated states (except for Georgia) voted for Trump.
https://www.rawstory.com/ravages-republican-trump-states/
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/state-warned-of-huge-risk-to-vulnerable-people-20210912-p58qya.html
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09/unvaccinated-are-5x-more-likely-to-catch-delta-11x-more-likely-to-die/
COVID-19 vaccines are largely holding up against the hyper-transmissible delta coronavirus variant, particularly when it comes to preventing severe disease and death, according to three studies published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Overall, fully vaccinated people are about five times less likely to become infected with delta, 10 times less likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 from delta, and 11 times less likely to die from the variant, according to the studies.
The fresh data lands just a day after President Biden announced sweeping vaccine mandates—the administration’s most aggressive action yet to push vaccine holdouts into getting the life-saving shot. About 80 million Americans eligible vaccination have yet to receive the free and readily available shots. Meanwhile, delta has spread across the country like wildfire since June, leading to one of the largest COVID-19 surges yet in the pandemic. Currently, the US is seeing nearly 150,000 new cases every day, with 100,000 hospitalizations and over 1,500 daily deaths—almost all of which are preventable with vaccination.
”Just presuppose enough hypothetical carbon capture and you can pencil out a plan for meeting any climate goal, even while allowing the fossil fuel industry to keep growing.”
That will be the plan Morrison takes to the election.
phoenixRed:
I was listening to a Bulwark podcast yesterday in which Charlie and his guest Tom Nichols were comparing and contrasting the GOP’s embracing of post Sept 11 restrictions with their trashing of Covid restrictions.
Tom made the point that Covid is more likely to kill you than a terror attack, yet today’s Republicans actively reject measures designed to keep people safe. Back in 2001 they were all in for whatever changes were ushered in in the name of anti-terrorism.
They’d happily turn out their luggage for inspection and take their shoes off for scanning before boarding a plane, but now they pitch a fit at the prospect of wearing a mask on a plane. Go figure!
Steve777 at 7:02 am
The bullshit is just so ‘on brand’ for SfM it is surprising he has not already done it.
A nomination for the arsehole of the day award.
.
.
Dr Darren Saunders
@whereisdaz
I wonder how many of those complaining about locals going for a surf/swim at the beach actually bother going there when there aren’t restrictions? Most of it sounds a lot more like trying to make yourself feel better by wanting others to suffer.
10:25 AM · Sep 12, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
I just picked up another tid bit of information from Jon Faine’s weekend column.
As he spoke about Christian Porter moving to the bench to keep up Dyson Heydon’s legacy 😉 , he also hinted that Greg Hunt may resign!
#fingerscrossed
George W.Bush (yes, I know, poroti 😉 ) gave a speech in Shanksville, Pennsylvania to commemorate 20 years after 9/11 and it was actually quite profound:
Bush used the opportunity to pay tribute to the heroes of 9/11. But he also called out the violent insurrectionists of January 6:
Predictably, MAGAWorld was triggered.
Multiple US television networks have approached national broadcaster the ABC about buying the rights to broadcast two Four Corners episodes that looked at Fox News and its role in the 2020 general election.
Industry sources familiar with the talks, who spoke anonymously because no deal was signed, said the ABC has spoken to several news outlets about a licence to exclusively air the program in the US. The sources said CNN – which recently interviewed reporter Sarah Ferguson – was one of the networks interested in acquiring the program, but that no deal was finalised. An ABC spokesperson declined to comment.
Fox News has formalised a complaint with the ABC over a two-part series that looked at its role in the 2020 US election.
The licensing of the program by any US television network is likely to frustrate Fox News Media and escalate tensions between it and the ABC. The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age revealed last Sunday that Fox News had formalised a complaint about the two-part program and had written to ABC chair Ita Buttrose and managing director David Anderson demanding an external inquiry be conducted.
Tap, tap, tap. Is this thing on?
Blog Intro
However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
________________
C@t
Am a Victorian, so could you please explain what all this means and the history behind it ?
Is the Doherty modelling too optimistic? Modelling produced for the WA government says yes.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-covid-models-painting-different-pictures-of-life-after-restrictions-20210910-p58qmp.html
Would Deb O’Neill be such a misfit in Hunter if she was shunted from the CC next door? Or is Hunter exclusively reserved for a white bloke in hi-vis clutching a lump of coal? Do we really need a Beetrooter 2.0 in the ALP? I’m amused by Fitzy’s reference to Albo being a ‘moderating influence’ on party policy re coal mining. Albo needs to do a much better job than Shorten in appealing simultaneously to miners and renewable energy proponents – if only for the duration of the campaign. Weasel words and catchphrases like ‘transitioning’, ‘future proofing’ and ‘lifetime employment’ just might placate the union bovver boys. I feel a massive investment in solar energy in the Hunter coming on.
What the figures show is that we need 100% vaccination coverage.
Could be worse.
Could be Lebanon.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/it-s-not-a-crisis-it-s-a-collapse-life-in-a-total-economic-meltdown-20210906-p58pc9.html
Medvedev leads Djokovic 2 sets to nil and a break in the 3rd set. Maybe there is light at the end of tunnel for Men’s tennis. I know I know, Djoker came back from 2 sets down so many times and I don’t want to jinx it.
Medvedev leads 3-0 in third set.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
The AAP has just reported that Joel Fitzgibbon will retire from politics at the next election.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7426993/joel-fitzgibbon-to-retire-from-politics/?cs=14264
Sean Kelly harshly criticises Morrison’s and Berejiklian’s vanishing acts.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/that-old-vanishing-trick-politics-20210912-p58qy8.html
Kristina Keneally’s house switch stops one row, but starts another writes Michelle Grattan.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/09/13/view-from-the-hill-kristina-keneally-switch/
The AFR’s editorial urges Gladys Berejiklian to publicly submit herself to public questioning at least several times a week as NSW enters a testing time, with the COVID-19 health toll about to peak.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/berejiklian-will-need-to-remain-accountable-20210909-p58q3z
But lawyer Joseph Friedman defends Berejiklian’s cessation of the daily pressers.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-the-premier-was-right-to-cancel-the-11am-presser-20210912-p58qw0.html
Phil Coorey writes about Morrison’s “Get jabbed or get left behind” mantra. He also reports that SA’s Steven Marshall, whose state is COVID-free and has a 40.4 per cent double-dose rate, agreed to open his borders to NSW and Victoria once his state reached the 80 per cent double-dose rate – although he reserved the right to bar people from hotspots if need be.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/get-jabbed-or-get-left-behind-pm-20210912-p58qwz
Struggling businesses relying on income support to survive lockdown fear jobs will be lost in a sea of red tape created by the NSW government after it unexpectedly tightened eligibility tests around its JobSaver program, report Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/red-tape-nightmare-jobsaver-changes-stun-struggling-businesses-20210911-p58qrs.html
Berejiklian’s snap decision to walk-away from her daily COVID briefings took everyone by surprise, even her most trusted ministers in crisis cabinet, writes Alexandra Smith.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/awkward-questions-end-premier-s-daily-covid-19-ritual-20210912-p58qzy.html
In the meantime, two NSW cabinet ministers have been summoned to appear before the state’s corruption watchdog and give evidence over the activities of Daryl Maguire and a significant grant he obtained with the help of Gladys Berejiklian.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/ministers-called-to-icac-over-gladys-berejiklians-exboyfriend-daryl-maguire/news-story/aeaab630a9010241c0c84e2260f8eecf
Reconstructive surgeon Neela Janakiramanan believes that Covid has exposed Australia’s fault lines. She certainly gives us something to think about.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/who-s-essential-covid-exposes-australia-s-true-fault-lines-20210910-p58qff.html
Tom McIlroy reports that the latest NSW Health data shows there have been 317 cases in people with two doses of a vaccine, a ‘breakthrough’ rate of just 2.6 per cent.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/fewer-than-500-breakthrough-infections-in-australia-20210909-p58q63
The Sydney lockdown has exacerbated inequity in the areas hardest hit by Covid and this is being made worse by a lack of access to green space, according to Guardian analysis of data from the Australian Urban Observatory.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2021/sep/13/sydneys-haves-and-have-nots-poor-access-to-green-space-in-lgas-of-concern
A Fitzroy North primary school whose principal has repeatedly flouted public health orders and invited families to send in their children during lockdowns has been hit by a significant coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/fitzroy-north-school-that-flouted-lockdown-rules-hit-by-covid-outbreak-20210912-p58qz5.html
The balance between individual freedoms and the interests of the wider community has repeatedly been tested during the COVID-19 pandemic and the front line is shifting to the small business community. The editorial in the SMH says that the NSW government has announced that as a condition for reopening, it will require businesses to refuse entry to unvaccinated customers. Victoria could soon follow.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/small-business-must-support-the-vaccination-drive-20210912-p58qyx.html
Meanwhile, an infectious disease expert who advises the Victorian government has sounded the alarm on groups forming on social media to encourage unvaccinated people to visit their venues. Bloody knuckleheads!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-businesses-spruik-jab-or-no-jab-policies-20210910-p58qno.html
Liam Mannix writes that the professor behind a model provided to the WA government that predicted scores of coronavirus deaths in that state if restrictions are relaxed too soon says the Doherty Institute modelling on which the national reopening plan is based is “perhaps too optimistic”.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-covid-models-painting-different-pictures-of-life-after-restrictions-20210910-p58qmp.html
Vaccine passports are coming to Australia. Kate Atwell tells us how they will work and what will we need them for.
https://theconversation.com/vaccine-passports-are-coming-to-australia-how-will-they-work-and-what-will-you-need-them-for-167531
Lucy Cormack tells us that NSW risks setting a national reopening precedent that leaves vulnerable people behind, with social services groups warning the vaccination target of 70 per cent could mask inequity in low-income communities.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/state-warned-of-huge-risk-to-vulnerable-people-20210912-p58qya.html
Michael Pascoe says that young Australians will pay for our debt via higher house prices.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/09/13/debt-covid-young-michael-pascoe/
According to Shane Wright and Katina Curtis, a spreadsheet of marginal electorates that was used to promise railway station car parks to voters as part of a $660 million program could only have come out of the offices of former infrastructure minister Alan Tudge or Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/railway-station-plans-parked-in-ministers-offices-20210912-p58qxd.html
If the PM is serious about reducing gas prices, he needs to address price fixing, writes Peter Dawson.
https://johnmenadue.com/if-the-pm-is-serious-about-reducing-gas-prices-he-needs-to-address-price-fixing/
Nationals MPs will decide on major reforms that could strip Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce of the power to pick cabinet and outer ministry positions. The Australian tells us that a group led by Nationals whips Damian Drum and Perin Davey has been tasked with preparing new models of selecting the party’s executive positions.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nats-vote-may-cut-barnaby-joyces-influence/news-story/0d27fe9ff84cf218ee1c8a47be1e4ccc
New analysis shows Morrison government funding won’t cover any extra uni student places for years, explains Shane Warburton.
https://theconversation.com/new-analysis-shows-morrison-government-funding-wont-cover-any-extra-uni-student-places-for-years-167542
The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission has opened an investigation into the rapid rise in shipping and container costs in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, with inflation emerging as a major bugbear for the nation’s retail sector.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/accc-investigating-soaring-covidlinked-shipping-and-container-costs/news-story/e7377151a51b2def5c1afc1a62b5986e
Bruce Haigh opines that we have been used again by America, this time in Indonesia.
https://johnmenadue.com/bruce-haighwe-have-been-used-again-by-america-this-time-in-indonesia/
Zoe Samios says multiple US television networks have approached national broadcaster the ABC about buying the rights to broadcast two Four Corners episodes that looked at Fox News and its role in the 2020 general election. This will fore up the culture warriors at The Australian!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/us-television-networks-approach-abc-for-fox-news-program-20210910-p58qkb.html
Geoff Chambers reports that Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews will seek to increase powers for security agencies and courts to keep high-risk terrorists in prison or monitor them on release and ramp up deradicalisation programs to stop violent extremism “before it manifests in an attack”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/home-affairs-minister-karen-andrews-to-seek-new-powers-for-terrorist-lockdown/news-story/4ba7f9d67f6c1d9b04c07f6d77a473cf
Peter Hannam writes that NSW residents could pay as much as $60 extra per year to cover a $2 billion blowout in the cost of new transmission links from Snowy 2.0.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/households-could-be-up-for-2b-electricity-transmission-cost-blowout-20210911-p58qsb.html
The situation in Lebanon is so grave it may rank as one of the top three economic calamities to strike any nation for the past 170 years, explains Bevan Shields.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/it-s-not-a-crisis-it-s-a-collapse-life-in-a-total-economic-meltdown-20210906-p58pc9.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Michael Leunig
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Jim Pavlidis
Leak
From the US
I am so glad that Premier Mark McGowan commissioned his own modelling in contradistinction to that of The Doherty Institute being touted by Morrison and Berejiklian. It puts in black and white what a shitshow is coming down the pike for the states that, up to now, have dealt very effectively with the pandemic.
And for that little worm, Johannes Leak, to equate care and concern of the successful Premiers with, ‘delaying the inevitable’, well to my mind there’s only one word that fully describes an attitude like that. Eugenics.
Morrison and Berejiklian: ICAC dodgers.
poroti: the Magic Wok was closed!!
Boerwar @ #22 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 8:19 am
FICAC and ICAC. 🙂
Singapore reaches 80 pc double-vaccination rate but life is not returning to normal
Having passed the 80 per cent double-vaccination mark last month, the case of Singapore suggests that achieving a milestone coveted by Australia is not a guarantee of returning to anything like pre-pandemic life.
The island state reluctantly delayed reopening measures and re-imposed some restrictions last week after seeing its highest daily COVID-19 infections in more than a year.
On Sunday, the nation of 5.7 million people reported 555 new local COVID-19 cases, the most since August 2020.
“One main lesson from across South-East Asia is that it is incredibly hard to prevent Delta’s spread and, as Singapore shows, even high vaccination rates will not help that much,”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/singapore-has-80-per-cent-vaccination-but-life-is-not-normal/100450154
Greenies are jumping the shark.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-climate-change-australia-anti-vaxxers/100455944
”
porotisays:
Monday, September 13, 2021 at 6:44 am
Why Scrott will adopt “net zero by 2050′ . Two perfect reasons for him to do so.
.
The dangerous flaws in our ‘net zero by 2050’ goal
…………The world has by and large adopted “net zero by 2050” as its de facto climate goal, but two fatal flaws hide in plain sight within those 16 characters. One is “net zero”. The other is “by 2050”.
”
poroti
The net zero target should be reached by 2030. One of the big arguments for the target to be reached by 2050 is because the world economies cannot cope earlier target. But COVID has laid waste to that argument. Governments spent so much money to prop up peoples lives during COVID is unbelievable. The same thing can be done to reach earlier target than postulated especially when world’s future is at stake.
Dandy does Darwin at 8:21 am
Permanently or just when you were there ? The owner wasn’t interested in 7 days a week trading ,even in the tourist season. Without backpackers it will be pretty quiet in Mitchell St. What part of town are you staying ?
Tu Le 4 Hunter?
Morrison giving Australians the finger by appointing Porter to the High Court?
Surely not?
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.
Ven @ #19 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 8:07 am
Shithead spectators doing their utmost to prevent Medvedev beating the Nutjob.
I’m thinking of a movie title for movie about the Morrison Government:
‘How Brazen was my Corruption?’
Mordor Media kicks off its KK Campaign.
Medvedev wins in 3 sets to nil. Congratulations to new champion.
Google has it listed as “Temporarily closed”.
NT News, 2 June 2020 (paywalled):
Ven @ #33 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 8:36 am
At last.
Outstanding.
Is Nutjob still crying?
Virginia Trioli reports 473 new cases
It’s all about Jokervich.
It’s like he won.
I hope Medvedev tells the all to get rooted.
At times petulant and appearing uncharacteristically disconsolate throughout the match, Djokovic fails to secure his place in tennis history, going down to Medvedev in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 – their respective win/loss ratio now 4:4.
I think of any player, the “Joker” most feared Medvedev in the final as he can consistently hit the ball as hard and serve as well as him, so much so that Djokovic was forced to play at times serve/volley tennis, a style of play unfamiliar to him. Anyway, Laver’s record remains intact.
poroti, temporarily but has been shut for a while, apparently.
I’m staying on Woods St. It was fairly active last night. We went down to the waterfront lagoon, then up to a watering hole with live music and the rugby on. So I take back my sledge from yesterday – it was at least as exciting as Adelaide 😛
Full day of meetings now, so I’ll see the insides of at least three different buildings on Mitchell St, but we’ve been promised a Territory-sized steak tonight. I’ll try to get up to the beaches in between – any tips?
America, at the moment, is full of arrogant, ignorant COVID-19 cock-a-snookers like Djokovich. Of course they love him.
Victoria records 473 new cases of COVID-19 as Delta outbreak grows
Victoria has recorded 473 new locally-acquired cases of COVID-19, the highest single-day tally of the outbreak so far.
Of the new cases, 202 have so far been linked to known outbreaks.
There were 49,037 test results received yesterday, and 30,032 doses of vaccine were administered at state-run sites.
Four Melbourne childcare centres were listed as tier 1 exposure sites overnight, bringing the number of venues to nearly 1,100.
There are also major disruptions to V/Line train services, with hundreds of workers forced into isolation after five drivers and staff tested positive to the virus.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/victoria-records-473-new-cases-of-covid/100456354
You know you’ve well and truly cocked things up when even Barnaby can make you look ridiculous. From the guardian live blog …
Jaeger + Dandy does Darwin
Bugger, it is one of the first places I always go to when in Darwin. Dandy, beaches ? 😆 Well apart from the fact you see occasional crocs who have taken a day trip out of their rivers/estuary the beaches themselves aren’t that flash. Take a trip out of town to Humpty Doo. If only to say you have been to Humpty Doo 🙂 . Very nice souvenir shirt/hat/stubby holder at the pub.
More #MeTooBeetaloo from Labor …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/beetaloo-basin-nt-fracking-plans-imperial-energy/100455780
The sustained attack on KK moving into Fowler from the Greens, LNP, Murdoch et al suggests they are dead scared she will become a formidable force in the HoR.
Tips for Darwin beaches?
The sandflies will do you far more damage than the crocs.
Player One says:
Monday, September 13, 2021 at 9:06 am
You know you’ve well and truly cocked things up when even Barnaby can make you look ridiculous.
_______________________________
You know you’ve well and truly nailed your political colours to the mast when you quote the Beetrooter as support for anything.
citizen @ #45 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 9:10 am
The most damaging attacks are the ones coming from within Labor.
citizen @ #44 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 9:10 am
Exactly. They only attack those they are afraid of the most.