Weekend developments

Joel Fitzgibbon calls it a day, and other federal preselection news.

The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.

For the time being, there is the following:

• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.

• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.

• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Weekend developments”

Comments Page 2 of 26
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  1. Mavis @ #38 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 8:50 am

    At times petulant and appearing uncharacteristically disconsolate throughout the match, Djokovic fails to secure his place in tennis history, going down to Medvedev in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 – their respective win/loss ratio now 4:4.

    I think of any player, the “Joker” most feared Medvedev in the final as he can consistently hit the ball as hard and serve as well as him, so much so that Djokovic was forced to play at times serve/volley tennis, a style of play unfamiliar to him. Anyway, Laver’s record remains intact.

    Anyway, Medvedev whopped his arse real good.

  3. ‘c
    The sustained attack on KK…
    …’
    ___________________________
    There was a time when there was a sustained attack on Gillard. Strong Female Lead last night on SBS reminded us all what a ghastly bunch of morally bankrupt arseholes the Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison governments are. Their various pathetic shills on Bludger, ditto.

    Now KK. Here’s the thing. The Right do not give a flying fuck about diversity. They fucking hate diversity. It was no accident that our friends in Afghanistan were left high and dry. It is no accident that a Tamil family is left to rot on Christmas Island. It is no accident that migrants are dying like flies in Sydney while your anglo infested north shore is safely vaccinated. It is no accident that they sooled Covid onto Western NSW Indigenous communities.
    The same Right is happy to stick it to KK about diversity.
    The same morally bankrupt Right and Greens shills on Bludger are happy to stir the diversity pot.
    Oh, and do they HATE a competent and articulate woman like KK. Just like they hated Gillard for the same reasons.

  4. So looks like Labor’s down one seat already?
    Joltin’ Joel wouldn’t have quit if he thought there was at least a chance of winning.

  6. Boris says ‘no’ to vaccine passports:

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is scrapping the introduction of vaccine passports, announcing he will set out his plans on Tuesday to manage the COVID-19 pandemic during the colder months…

    Under fire from some in his governing Conservative Party for raising taxes to fix a health and social care crisis, Mr Johnson looks set to try to soothe those critics by ditching plans to introduce passports, despite an increasing number of coronavirus cases.

    The U-turn came just days after the government’s vaccines minister and the culture secretary suggested that vaccine passports would still be necessary, despite growing opposition from politicians.

    Such passports are required in other European countries, like France.

    Members of the governing Conservative Party have objected to such passports as an unacceptable burden on businesses and an infringement on human rights.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/britain-johnson-ditches-covid-19-vaccine-passports/100456088

  7. Every visit to Darwin should involve a visit to the Supreme Court/Federal Court building. May not be able to get in there at the moment unless you have done something wrong.

    Incredible indigenous art.

  8. PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    10m
    ABC News reports Gladys Berejiklian is expected to step up at 11AM today — presumably in response to opposition leader Chris Minns’ scheduled 11AM presser. Such a move was anticipated by many yesterday and Mr Minns has been praised for his 4D chess move. #nswpol #auspol

  10. TPOF @ #46 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 9:14 am

    Player One says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 9:06 am
    You know you’ve well and truly cocked things up when even Barnaby can make you look ridiculous.

    _______________________________

    You know you’ve truly nailed your political colours to the mast when you quote the Beetrooter as support for anything.

    They say some people become more conservative as they age and we are seeing it in real time with Player One here. It doesn’t necessarily have to be about the things you (still) believe in, but more importantly, it’s about the things you don’t believe in any more, and starkly, with Player One what they don’t believe in are all things KK and Labor believe in.

    It’s too easy to take cheap pot shots at politicians who have undoubted star power, but what isn’t acknowledged is that that politician who possesses that star power, they know it, and they’re not stupid and they can do the math and they know how easy it would be to stake their flag in the ground with the party that has been in power for the overwhelming majority of the time, post WW2, in Australia. Too easy. Because political parties are on the lookout for political star power all the time and they will go all out for these people.

    However, some people just don’t care about the power and the glory that comes from being in the winning team. Some people care about principles and values and are prepared to toil long and hard to get their team to the grand final and to see them win. For example, the Demons and the Dogs in the upcoming AFL Grand Final.

    Player One could never be one of these people. They have been shown to be the sort of person the Liberals love. The sort of person prepared to abandon their principles and values for a political bribe, a handful of dirty money.

    And that’s why Player One has thrown their lot in with the Liberals. And why Player One hates Kristina Keneally so much. KK is everything Player One can never be. KK is beautiful, successful and principled. All things Player One will never be. Player One is an Ugly Australian. Of course Player One will put the Liberals above Labor.

  11. UK Cartoons – a whole weekends worth!

















    The Original: Francis Edwin Hodge (1883-1949) “The Arts Club’s Woman Chef”, 1935, The Arts Club, London.

  12. mundo says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 9:21 am
    So looks like Labor’s down one seat already?
    Joltin’ Joel wouldn’t have quit if he thought there was at least a chance of winning
    —————-

    Looks irrelevant to the seats that Labor likely to pick up and the seats lib/nats will lose

  13. “So looks like Labor’s down one seat already?” no Mundo, to the contrary. I have posted many times Joel is seen as lazy and taking Hunter for granted. IMHO the ALP vote will likely rebound considerably no matter who the new candidate is.
    Re-election prospects may not be the reason he quit – maybe he has a job in mining industry lined up…

  18. C@tmomma @ #59 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 9:34 am

    And that’s why Player One has thrown their lot in with the Liberals. And why Player One hates Kristina Keneally so much. KK is everything Player One can never be. KK is beautiful, successful and principled. All things Player One will never be. Player One is an Ugly Australian. Of course Player One will put the Liberals above Labor.

    You are a terribly unpleasant character, C@t. But you exemplify so much of what is wrong with Labor – or at least the Labor partisans here on PB. Instead of offering an alternative to the Liberals, you just spit bile at anyone who dares to point out Labor’s deficiencies.

    I hope for Labor’s sake you are not typical of the whole party, but I suspect might be.

  20. Terminator @ #62 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 9:36 am

    “So looks like Labor’s down one seat already?” no Mundo, to the contrary. I have posted many times Joel is seen as lazy and taking Hunter for granted. IMHO the ALP vote will likely rebound considerably no matter who the new candidate is.
    Re-election prospects may not be the reason he quit – maybe he has a job in mining industry lined up…

    Even if it was KKK? 🙂

  21. On Fowler:
    Summary of text conversation I had with Fowler-dwelling acquaintance yesterday.

    BL: Who would you prefer represent you in Federal Parliament, Keneally or Le?
    A: Am I in that seat?
    BL: Pretty sure you are …(appends PDF map of Fowler)
    A: Well, there you go. Thought I was in nutjob Kelly’s electorate.
    BL: Think you were until last redistribution.
    A: Doesn’t matter who the member is. They do jackall for you.

    A and OH are both higher degreed people holding significant positions in large corporations. The current discussions would appear to be washing past them. I wonder how much they represent the position of the majority of Fowler voters.
    In passing, I suspect the voting pattern in that household is one all.

  22. Personally I will be glad to see Fitz out of the Parliament as IMO he has been a rat for a long time. How much damage will he do when he’s free?

  23. ”
    Lizziesays:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 9:42 am
    How clever of Minns to drag Gladys out from under the doona.
    ”

    This is a win for Minns. I don’t vare Gladys has press conferences at11 am robot because they became non-informative

  25. mundo:

    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 9:18 am

    [‘Anyway, Medvedev whopped his arse real good.’]

    That he did. However, I think some are misinterpreting the Flushing Meadows’ crowd. They’ve always been noisy & brash, even cheering a fault or a double. What they wanted was bang for their buck, willing Djokovic to make it go to five sets. I’m glad Medvedev won, and in such a compelling way. Too early to say the King is Dead but he has been wounded.

  27. The problem the Rabid Right and their Bludger shills like Firefox, Mundo et al, who do nothing much else than root for the EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH gangsters is that they cannot lay a glove on Albanese.
    Ferguson and KK provide a bit of spite sport on the side courts but on Centre Court Albanese’s Labor has the Coalition on the ropes at 54.5%/45.5%.

  30. Fitzy’s post political position as advisor for Labor on climate policy

    With his departure Labor have a chance to select a rational candidate & hold the seat?

  31. Lose Lose for Gladys. Stupid woman. Well done Minns – checkmate!

    She’s looks silly if she fronts a press conference*, and looks silly if she doesn’t**.

    * having claimed it means she can’t do her job properly

    ** not doing her job properly, fronting the people in a National Emergency she started.

  32. Has Whish-Wilson explained to the electorates that have a substantial defence presence that their local economies will be shattered by the Greens?
    Honesty is the best policy.

  34. Labor has, with the ardent support of the Greens, lost regional seat after regional seat. Why would Hunter be any different?
    Ferguson lost a shit load of the 2PP vote in the last Hunter election at the same time as One Nation hoovered up 21%. Hello? Hunter is a coal seat.
    The Inner Urban Yappies just don’t get it.
    The corrupt Liberal and Nationals shills on Bludgers certainly get it.
    Or maybe the Inner Urban Yappies DO get it but are so intent on picking up a gentrified wealthy inner urban seat or two that they are prepared to sacrifice government to the rabid right gangsters.

  35. Sceptic says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 10:05 am
    Fitzy’s post political position as advisor for Labor on climate policy

    With his departure Labor have a chance to select a rational candidate & hold the seat?

    Labor might well lose Hunter. We will soon see. The reactionaries have been winning the politics of the environment/climate change for 25 years. They can win in coal-conscious Hunter too.

  36. >How much damage will he do when he’s free?

    I vaguely recall he leaks like a sieve, so there will be loads of free coverage from the CPG. That said, coal shills just get pidgeonholed as coal shills.

  37. Has Waters explained to Queenslanders how the Greens are going to destroy the cotton industry?
    If not, why not?
    After all, she is a virtue-signalling loudmouth when it comes to running the wedges.

  42. Four triumphs for the Coalition’s active misogyny in the space of a week:
    1. Morrison’s tin-eared speech at the summit.
    2. The Coalition failing to implement 49 of 55 recommendations.
    3. Appointing Porter to the High Court.
    4. Attacking KK.
    As usual, in all this the Coalition is supported by an assortment of morally corrupt Bludger shills.

  44. P1 and Mundo in hot competition to be “Best Liberal troll”.
    Bit sad the best they can do it criticize KK.
    Come on guys show a bit of imagination.

  45. Good Morning

    So today we have the official surrender of the coal lobby in Labor.

    The inevitable consequence of losing a by election that was run by Labor on being for coal and giving false hope to workers. We know categorically that failed.
    There is a good activist group on coal pollution that cuts into the LNP hold on the seat due that pollution without sacrificing the city areas of traditional Labor.

    Fitzgibbon will do a lot of shouting amplified by the right to stir the possum. However that’s a win for the broader party defeating the forces responsible for the leadership wars.

  46. Player One @ #42 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 7:06 am

    You know you’ve well and truly cocked things up when even Barnaby can make you look ridiculous. From the guardian live blog …

    Well deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce certainly had something to say about this, this morning, especially since the news broke that longtime Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon wouldn’t be contesting his marginal seat of Hunter in the next election.

    Joyce jokingly suggested Keneally should move up to Hunter, suggesting that she didn’t have the metal to fight it out in such a competitive race:

    Kristina Keneally now has an open seat so you can now move up to the Hunter. You don’t have to stand in Fowler anymore. Open seat in the Hunter, there you go, Kristina.

    That’ll make it a very interesting time in your life rather than a free ride where you booted out the preselected incumbent from Fowler.

    If you go there and we can have the debate there with the people … of Singleton, and people in the Hunter Valley, about which plan is going to most likely keep them out [in a ] job, that is what I’m looking forward to.

    Barnaby does logic.

    How is Hunter any more or less vacant than Fowler?

    And of course he moved States when he changed from the Senate to the House.

  47. P1

    It’s a lurch towards science. The conservative minor parties running on climate policy remain conservative.

    You should be happy. Labor will be the gas transition party. Their major advantage over the LNP is they will push for Green hydrogen to overtake Blue hydrogen

  48. Brave Gladys will be there to please know us that there has been 18 months of planning gone into this and of course obviously …

    Paramedics union call for urgent action to improve NSW emergency department resourcing

    The NSW paramedics union is sounding the alarm for the state’s hospital system, stating on Twitter that Concord Hospital, a major Syndey hospital, turned away ambulances last night after “hours of crippling bed block”.

    In the afternoon, 8 crews waited outside, some for over 2.5hrs.

    These scenes won’t disappear with optimism or denial. We need better resourcing, better triage, and better transfer of care at EDs

  49. ‘mundo says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 9:21 am

    So looks like Labor’s down one seat already?
    Joltin’ Joel wouldn’t have quit if he thought there was at least a chance of winning.’
    _____________________________
    Sorry to disappoint you, Mundo but the most corrupt and incompetent government since Federation will save the seat for Labor.

  50. Morrison is quite right to avoid setting an ICAC.
    Why would he shoot himself in the foot?
    Labor will put in an ICAC and will make it retrospective.
    Ouch for the Gangster Government.

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