Weekend developments

Joel Fitzgibbon calls it a day, and other federal preselection news.

The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.

For the time being, there is the following:

• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.

• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.

• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Weekend developments”

Comments Page 3 of 26
1 2 3 4 … 26

  4. “You are a terribly unpleasant character, C@t. But you exemplify so much of what is wrong with Labor – or at least the Labor partisans here on PB. Instead of offering an alternative to the Liberals, you just spit bile at anyone who dares to point out Labor’s deficiencies.

    I hope for Labor’s sake you are not typical of the whole party, but I suspect might be.”

    ***

    Well said. It’s rare that a day goes by on here without Cat restoring to abusing those who she knows have gotten the better of her in a political debate. It’s her go to defence mechanism. If anyone here has an ugly personality it is her, not you. I wouldn’t say the entire party is like her – there are many decent Labor supporters who would no doubt be appalled by her behaviour – but her tactics are certainly typical of the gutter politics employed by the NSW Labor Right.

  5. I wonder what sort of shouter/loser the Greens are going to scrape up for the Hunter?
    I wonder what sort of wannabe would even want to associate with, let alone run for, the most corrupt Federal government since Federation.


  6. Player One says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 10:27 am

    frednk @ #93 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:23 am

    Bit sad the best they can do it criticize KK.

    Where have I criticized KKK? I have criticized Labor for its tin-eared candidate appointment process.

    No matter how you frame it, still dull, still boring.
    guytaur got in hours before you with a bit of concern trolling. The Green’s branch of the anti Labor coalition wins hand down on that topic.

  9. FredNK

    There you go again. Using Concern Trolling as a bully label to stifle political debate on a psephology blog.

    The truth is your use of this is in fact trolling.

  10. So glad that Gladys is returning to the 11am time-slot, HI and I use her appearance as the signal that we have sat in bed with coffee and papers long enough. Mins just needs to release a statement to the effect that any time Gladys is not going to appear , he is ready to jump in at a moments notice.

  12. Gee this KK move is really blowing up big time now. Seriously can’t believe NSW Labor would be so stupid as to do this right now of all times. You’ve got to have it to the Labor Right though, they certainly know how to give the Libs a helping hand when they need it…

    During Friday night’s virtual meeting of the NSW Right – where Kristina Keneally was formally endorsed for the seat of Fowler – the agro against the man currently wearing the crown was dialled up to 11. Outgoing member Chris Hayes “lost his shit” at secretary Bob Nanva, according to one attendee, about the deal to preselect Keneally over his pick, lawyer Tu Le. Hayes claimed he told Nanva 12 months ago that he was planning to retire, but didn’t publicly announce his decision until March. However, it was Hayes’ revelation that Nanva may not seek re-election at the upcoming NSW Labor conference, scheduled for October 9, that got tongues wagging. Add into the mix the shock exit by Joel Fitzgibbon and you’ve got a full blown civil war.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/strewth/go-west/news-story/830ff0a75f9d1e30d4226530caeefd63

  18. I think Scott’s bullying of GladysB to stop the daily litany of bad and worse news, ala Trump’s ‘we are testing too much, slow it down, it looks bad’, is another example of poor judgement by Scott.

    What she could have said, like the good populist Anastacia is:

    ‘In response to a questions about NSW pressers, the Qld premier says she has no plans to cancel daily COVID-19 updates:

    “I won’t necessarily be here every day, but the government will be here every day, how’s that sound? I think we’ve got to let people know what’s going on.”

  20. With 21.6% of the primary vote in the seat of Hunter going to PHON at the last federal election, it was interesting to see that one in five voters in that electorate were prepared to out themselves as bona fide racists.

  24. Player One @ #107 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:34 am

    Oh oh … I expect this will be raised at Berejiklian’s press conference …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/nsw-waited-two-days-to-lock-down-over-west-hoxton-party/100456434

    Berejiklian, Hazzard and Chant all knew Sydney had an uncontrolled superspreader outbreak, but took two days to lock Sydney down. Then they denied knowing.

    Isn’t that the one where Dr Chant said they were severely lied to about who was there, when, what, all that, and about other critical data, which caused them to misread the extent of the problem?


  25. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 10:43 am

    frednk @ #92 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:23 am

    P1 and Mundo in hot competition to be “Best Liberal troll”.
    Bit sad the best they can do it criticize KK.
    Come on guys show a bit of imagination.

    You left out FizzleFox 2.

    Firefox 2 is not even in the competition. Just an angry kid,

  26. Cat

    F2 is right about the civil war. You are right about the disingenuous motives.

    The bottom line. It’s taken a decade but finally the toxic players that undermined Labor in government are being defeated.

    It’s not just in Victoria.

  29. @Paul_Karp tweets

    Now that Gladys is fronting for 11am – can we please stick clear of shaming individual behaviours/suburbs/stores etc and focus on the BIG MACRO calls like why she thinks it’s safe to reopen at 70% and if/when we’ll get optimal testing and tracing back? #auspol #COVID19nsw

  30. Those stories out of the UK about BoJo cancelling plans for Vaccine passports, should be qualified.

    There are 2 types of ‘vaccine passports’:

    1. Purely for domestic use – restaurants, theatre etc
    2. Border crossing, airports, international travel.

    BoJo is cancelling the first, the second is going to be mandatory – like the good old yellow WHO booklets some of us remember – but digitised into a personal QR code you can show as required.

  31. ItzaDream @ #123 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:46 am

    Player One @ #107 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:34 am

    Oh oh … I expect this will be raised at Berejiklian’s press conference …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/nsw-waited-two-days-to-lock-down-over-west-hoxton-party/100456434

    Berejiklian, Hazzard and Chant all knew Sydney had an uncontrolled superspreader outbreak, but took two days to lock Sydney down. Then they denied knowing.

    Isn’t that the one where Dr Chant said they were severely lied to about who was there, when, what, all that, and about other critical data, which caused them to misread the extent of the problem?

    Turns out that was not the case. They all knew they had an outbreak, but the government decided to do nothing for two days. The main unanswered question seems to be whether Chant actually advised the government to lockdown earlier or not.

  34. “A Green quoting an article in The Lolstralian. How apropos. ”

    ***

    Ha! This is coming from the person who was just quoting Geroge W Bush of all people. Appropriate indeed.

  35. sprocket_ @ #117 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:41 am

    I think Scott’s bullying of GladysB to stop the daily litany of bad and worse news, ala Trump’s ‘we are testing too much, slow it down, it looks bad’, is another example of poor judgement by Scott.

    What she could have said, like the good populist Anastacia is:

    ‘In response to a questions about NSW pressers, the Qld premier says she has no plans to cancel daily COVID-19 updates:

    “I won’t necessarily be here every day, but the government will be here every day, how’s that sound? I think we’ve got to let people know what’s going on.”

    She just should have said nothing. Zip. Nada. Turning up or not need not be trumpeted, especially with the rider that turning up meant she couldn’t do her real job (of dealing with Covid, not ICAC), and then she turns up. Loose lips; methinks Gladys’s ship is sinking.

  38. Player One @ #130 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:50 am

    ItzaDream @ #123 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:46 am

    Player One @ #107 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:34 am

    Oh oh … I expect this will be raised at Berejiklian’s press conference …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/nsw-waited-two-days-to-lock-down-over-west-hoxton-party/100456434

    Berejiklian, Hazzard and Chant all knew Sydney had an uncontrolled superspreader outbreak, but took two days to lock Sydney down. Then they denied knowing.

    Isn’t that the one where Dr Chant said they were severely lied to about who was there, when, what, all that, and about other critical data, which caused them to misread the extent of the problem?

    Turns out that was not the case. They all knew they had an outbreak, but the government decided to do nothing for two days. The main unanswered question seems to be whether Chant actually advised the government to lockdown earlier or not.

    We’ll have to wait for her memoirs for that I suspect.

  39. Barney

    The only people sucked in are those that don’t understand Fitzgibbon retiring and a person losing the ability to use a seat as a personal fiefdom are related.

  41. The history would have to address the two press conferences on 26 June – the usual 11am followed by the announcement of lockdown at 5 or 6pm

  42. “The bottom line. It’s taken a decade but finally the toxic players that undermined Labor in government are being defeated.”

    ***

    Unfortunately, the NSW Labor Right are still politically alive and kicking, as can be seen from recent events. Their toxic culture looms large over the ALP. The best thing Labor could do for itself would be to dissolve the entire faction and start again from the ground up.

  45. F2

    Nah. If the NSW right is truly reforming just like Victoria you get ugly skirmishes as personal fiefdom building that led to the toxic culture is weeded out.

    I am no fan of the NSW right but I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt unlike Murdoch

  47. ‘Firefox2 says:
    Monday, September 13, 2021 at 10:58 am

    …
    Unfortunately, the…’ Greens have spent thirty years shouting virtue at the clouds learning nothing, getting nowhere and running interference for the Coalition.

  50. Firefox2 @ #141 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 10:58 am

    Unfortunately, the NSW Labor Right are still politically alive and kicking, as can be seen from recent events. Their toxic culture looms large over the ALP. The best thing Labor could do for itself would be to dissolve the entire faction and start again from the ground up.

    Hard to disagree with that. However, it is unlikely to happen. The NSW Labor Right knows where all the bodies are buried. Largely because they buried many of them themselves.

    The best thing Federal Labor could and should do is stay as far away from NSW Labor as possible.

Comments Page 3 of 26
1 2 3 4 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *