Weekend developments

Joel Fitzgibbon calls it a day, and other federal preselection news.

The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.

For the time being, there is the following:

• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.

• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.

• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Weekend developments”

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  1. A man in his 90s from Dubbo died at the St Mary’s Villa Aged Care Facility, where he acquired his infection.

    A man in his 80s from Sydney’s inner city died at St Vincent’s Hospital.

    A woman in her 60s from south western Sydney died at Campbelltown Hospital.

    A man in his 80s died at Nepean Hospital. He acquired his infection at the Hawkesbury Living Aged Care Facility in Sydney’s north west. His is the second death linked to an outbreak at this facility.

    A man in his 90s from south western Sydney died at Liverpool Hospital.

    A woman in her 90s from Sydney’s inner west died at Concord Hospital.

    A man in his 80s from south western Sydney died at Sutherland Hospital.

    There have been 184 COVID-19 related deaths in NSW since 16 June 2021, and 240 in total since the start of the pandemic

  2. BW

    Yes thirty years of success.

    Blaming the Greens for Labor failures by calling them virtuous is not really convincing.

    Edit: Just like today the forces of darkness are exploiting Labor division that includes dragging the Greens into it.

  4. Nah, yeah. The NSW Labor Right are toxic to the very core and have been for a very long time. More than that, they are right wing conservatives who may as well be voting for the Liberals they are that far to the right. Seriously. When I look at the NSW Labor Right I see exactly the same thing as when I look at the “moderate” wing of the Libs.

    The last thing “Centre Unity” (the NSW Labor Right Faction) needs is another apologist making excuses for their shit right wing policies and gutter politics, as they are quite proficient at making excuses for themselves and blaming everyone else already. It’s pretty much the only thing they’re good at.

  8. Boerwar @ #152 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 11:08 am

    Another one in the 12 hundreds looks OK to me. But I am not at all good on pandemic statistics.

    I’d call it a draw, given the backflip on press conferences. 1500+ would be an embarassment for Gladys, and under 1000 would be a victory. 1257 says we need to wait a few days to see which way the number is actually moving.

  9. a r @ #157 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 11:11 am

    Boerwar @ #152 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 11:08 am

    Another one in the 12 hundreds looks OK to me. But I am not at all good on pandemic statistics.

    I’d call it a draw, given the backflip on press conferences. 1500+ would be an embarassment for Gladys, and under 1000 would be a victory. 1257 says we need to wait a few days to see which way the number is actually moving.

    For me, there’s some comfort in it nonetheless.

  12. Good outreach programmes at St Vincent’s, going well back to the nun days. The nuns are sadly missed, speaking for myself, and many others I’m sure.

  13. It’s tres amusing to read some numpty Green pontificating about the state of NSW Labor. And that’s all it is, amusing, certainly not enlightening or insightful in any way.

  16. Further to Griff’s posts yesterday, this is becoming an increasing key statistic:

    (1) 427 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District
    (2) 314 are from Western Sydney Local Health District
    (3) 181 are from Sydney Local Health District

    (1) and (2) are down – (3) is up

  18. 1257 is only slightly more than the same time last week.
    Early call suggests that the Peak is close by.

    Gladys could have held off on her not doing a presser every day by maybe a week or 2 and pulled the pin whilst on a downhill run.

    Once again Covid rewards patience, caution and a risk averse mindset…

  20. She said she was finishing up the conferences as of Sunday. One of the many excuses was she didn’t know when the peak would be. She still doesn’t so why is she here? The only reason she is here, looking like something the cat dragged in, is because Minns gazumped her. It was brilliant on his part and I didn’t think he had it in him. This is not a draw. It is a humiliating defeat that not even Catherine Bennett can get her out of.

  21. Wait, why is Gladys on the TV? Has she reversed her decision to do a runner already? Dragged back kicking and screaming because it was such a bad look? Thought she was knocking off from today.

  22. “She said she was finishing up the conferences as of Sunday. One of the many excuses was she didn’t know when the peak would be. She still doesn’t so why is she here?”

    ***

    My thoughts exactly.

  25. A well called disparity – Dawn Frazer baths (Balmain) are open, with increasing concerns for inner city LGA, but western suburbs pools, where public open spaces are generally measurably more distant from residences, are closed.

  26. The history would have to address the two press conferences on 26 June – the usual 11am followed by the announcement of lockdown at 5 or 6pm

    I visited family on June 26 – a cutdown birthday party with five guests. I heard about the lockdown on the car radio as I started the 100 km drive home.

    Haven’t seen family in person since then.

  27. An interesting post from a friend of fb. Fitzoy Community School, which is now listed as a Tier 1 exposure site, with 30 linked cases —

    ‘I knew the founder of Fitzroy Community School, Phil O’Carroll…He was an energetic principal of a community school but he was a dyed-in-the wool Liberal Party supporter. …. Sadly, Fitzroy Community School has carried on Phil’s tradition of Individualism triumphing over collective responsibility….here is a school that broke ranks and has now put a whole community at risk. I have to say that Fitzroy Community School has behaved most irresponsibly.’

  28. Steve777

    I think the 11am conference (I was bushwalking) announced a number of about 30 to 8pm the night before but a big overnight update. Drops in the ocean compared to where we are now of course.

  29. Itza

    I don’t know how relevant this is to Sydney but in the Melbourne Area, attempts by LGAs are far too often over-ruled by VCAT under the influence of developers.

  31. Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said those who haven’t received the jab may not enjoy extra freedoms even when the state hits 80 per cent double vaccination.

    In NSW, 46.2 per cent of the population has received two vaccine doses, with restrictions to ease significantly for vaccinated residents at 70 per cent.

    However, Ms Berejiklian said unvaccinated people could still be living with tough restrictions even when 80 per cent double vaccination milestone is reached.

    “Don’t assume that at 80 per cent double-dose vaccination that unvaccinated people are are going to have all those freedoms. I want to make that point very clear,” she said.

    “The government is yet to finalise its plans in relation to what happens at 80% double dose. Our key message is – come forward and get vaccinated because once we start opening up at 70 per cent double-dose vaccination, the higher the rate of adult coverage, of people 16 and over, that are vaccinated, the better it is for all of us.”

    Ms Berejiklian said it was everyone’s choice whether to get vaccinated, but warned those who choose not to get the jab “not to expect to do everything that vaccinated people do even when we hit 80 per cent”.

    “I don’t want people to think they can sit back, let everybody else do the hard work and then turn up when it’s 80 per cent and get everything else that vaccinated people are. That’s not the right message,” she said.

    “I want to say it clearly – that if you’re not vaccinated, you will not have the freedom or the freedoms that vaccinated people have even when we get to 80 per cent double dose.”

    Ms Berejiklian said private businesses could also make the decision not to open to unvaccinated Australians.

  34. Interesting
    In Victoria 90% of cases under 40
    In NSW all todays deaths are over 40, mainly over 70 ==> triaging scarce health resources is here

  35. Holdenhillbilly @ #180 Monday, September 13th, 2021 – 9:38 am

    27m agoSeptember 13, 2021
    Highlight
    Gladys’ brutal news for unvaxxed residents
    Ally Foster
    Ally Foster

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said those who haven’t received the jab may not enjoy extra freedoms even when the state hits 80 per cent double vaccination.

    In NSW, 46.2 per cent of the population has received two vaccine doses, with restrictions to ease significantly for vaccinated residents at 70 per cent.

    However, Ms Berejiklian said unvaccinated people could still be living with tough restrictions even when 80 per cent double vaccination milestone is reached.

    “Don’t assume that at 80 per cent double-dose vaccination that unvaccinated people are are going to have all those freedoms. I want to make that point very clear,” she said.

    …

    They really do like leaving people behind.

  37. Yesterday I went to local vaccination hub to get my second dose of Pfizer.

    My arm is very sore today. Moreso than the first jab.

    Anyhoo, it was interesting to see young people getting the jab yesterday, and some reacting in the same way when they are at school getting their other vaccines

    Fainting, crying and freaking out. The wonderful medical staff handled the situations with aplomb.

    One young girl who was freaking out was being counselled by her young companion, who was trying so hard to get her to take the jab.
    She was saying you can do it.
    Remember that you will be helping everyone you care about etc etc
    It was actually really sweet, despite it being quite stressful.

  44. Remember that deaths lag behind the new case numbers by about a month. It could mean roughly hitting 30 or so deaths per day on current numbers in NSW. It means we could be a month or so away from hitting:

  46. GG

    That goes without saying.

    OH has worked in Sydney weeks at a time.
    He says that the difference between his former Melbourne colleagues and Sydney colleagues is stark. The financial pressure exhibited by those in Sydney is quite pronounced.

  48. Barr pointing out problems with Morrison’s supply of vaccines for 12-15yo.

    Long wait for ACT government availability. Parents can shop around GPs and pharmacies.

    Presumably the same situation applies across Australia.

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