The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.
For the time being, there is the following:
• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.
• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.
Snap shellbell
NSW had declines on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday last week and then a significant rise on Wednesday.
Saturdays are the worst followed by Wednesdays
Hello peoples, I’m still lurking. Just purchased a new computer (my old faithfull after 15 years of use and abuse gave up the ghost) Anyhoo, reinstalled C+ and it no worky. I’m using Firefox and Windows 10. Is there something I need to change in settings? Any help would be appreciated.
“Which he left to form The Shooters and Fishers Party when the Nationals supported John Howard’s Gun Laws.”
Would have been earlier, as I recall.
Tingle lamented the absence of armed visitors at Port Arthur on 28 April 1996 who could have taken out Bryant.
Welcome back, Bert.
Did you install “PB Comments Plugin”? That’s the new name for the CCP/C+ plug-in.
Wow! Great set of questions from the Guardian blog, a few really relevant to me.
These are the questions that the Guardian would have liked to ask Berejiklian today, if the had fronted the press conference:
1. OzSAGE, a new scientific group made up of prominent epidemiologists, have released modelling of the NSW outbreak that indicates ICU pressure and deaths could exceed the Burnet Institute modelling released last week. Is the NSW government concerned by this new modelling, and will it take the modelling into consideration to tweak the 70% roadmap/when formulating the 80% double dose freedoms?
2. What is the vaccination rate among NSW’s Indigenous populations? What strategies is the government pursuing to reach this community in urban and remote settings, and is there a concern Indigenous vaccination rates could be below the state average once the 70% milestone is reached?
3. How is transmission occurring in outbreaks within community housing in the Inner West and City of Sydney LGAs? Are there concerns the virus is spreading between units, and are authorities considering targeting more individual buildings for stricter lockdown?
4. What is being done to vaccinate the homeless population in Sydney after the outbreak at Frederic House facility in Waterloo, and what are the vaccination rates among the homeless in inner Sydney?
5. Western Sydney mayors and MPs say restrictions on outdoor recreation in LGAs of concern and curfews are punitive and don’t make sense. Health minister Brad Hazzard has also said outdoor settings present a lower transmission risk. Why won’t you commit to easing more of these types of restrictions?
One bonus of getting the reff < 1 is you go from doubling time to halving time.
And I really, really want to know why the residents of Frederic house, and the staff, were not vaccinated.
They were such an obviously at risk group.
And why was Frederic House not warned that COVID is rampant in the local area? I have known for three weeks now.
Well spotted Shellbell!
This is what we are desperately hoping for!
Player One says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:33 am
TPOF @ #802 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:17 am
I guess you could tell us where the extra K came from, you ugly piece of work.
Which K? Those are her initials.
______________________________________
That’s exactly the same faux innocence that Abbott put on when he said “this government should die of shame” and declared that he knew nothing about Alan Jones’s vile slur.
You are actually worse than Abbott. He did it for political advantage. You do it because you are just vile.
(Apologies if that has already been posted today.)
Strong Female Lead: viscerally powerful film lets the Gillard years speak for themselves
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/sep/14/strong-female-lead-viscerally-powerful-film-lets-the-gillard-years-speak-for-themselves
”
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:31 am
Ven @ #799 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:15 am
It is very hard to take you or P1 very seriously when did not comment anything about what William Bowe posted in this thread as below about Liberal party.
“The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard”
I don’t see the relevance. Contesting preselection is not what KKK did. Quite the opposite – she was parachuted in by head office precisely so she would not have to do so.
Or have I misunderstood your point?
”
Yes you missed my point. All those Liberal party people who are contesting preselection in Western Australia are people who are either highly connected or existing MPs or did their time at lower level.
The qualifications of Tu Lee are that she has Vietnamese background, supported by current MP. Did she do her time as junior politician at any level. If she has be selected because of her background, why not select people of other background like people of Indian origin, Korean orgin, Chinese origin, Indonesian orgin? If there 15 % people of Vietnamese origin in that electorate, then there are 85 % people of other origins.
Jaeger says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 12:06 pm
(Apologies if that has already been posted today.)
Strong Female Lead: viscerally powerful film lets the Gillard years speak for themselves
New documentary in the style of 2019’s The Final Quarter examines the sexism faced by Australia’s first female prime minister
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/sep/14/strong-female-lead-viscerally-powerful-film-lets-the-gillard-years-speak-for-themselves
______________________________
I saw it the other night. Utterly unrelenting. I think I spotted P1 standing beneath the banner with Ken Wyatt
Expat Follower says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:50 am
Boerwar – we know your…’ facts and you don’t like them.
Morrison and Berejiklian are killers.
From the Ruby Princess to the massacre in the aged homes to quarantine fails to vaccine acquisition fails to shutdown fails to playing politics with the lives of Australians these two are killers.
Killers. Pure and Simple.
They must resign now.
Fulvio Sammut @ #824 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:37 am
No. Different posters.
Glen posted as Glen and Gary Sparrow.
Evan also posted as Evan Parson, Thornleigh Labor Man (TLM) maybe others.
nothing to be read into the 1200-1100 numbers of last couple of days for the reasons D&M states, but an overall curve flattening R(eff) steadying trend seems reasonable to deduce. The under-over point my profesionals in the know had was in the high 2000’s per day… lots of hope that we’re going to peak at a level significantly below that.
even at numbers 20% of this would make no difference to lockdown reality, we were headed for this no matter what (unf Victoria tends to evidence this). I think most have baked into the cake this state of being until late October. The qn is where we could be by then or shortly thereafter
For the record I am very glad that the NSW numbers are flatlining. I look forward to them now declining.
Thanks to that fuckwit Morrison’s criminal delay in vaccine acquisition and Berejiklian’s infecting and re-infecting the ACT we are locked down for another fucking month.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.FUCKING.TOUCH.THEY.FUCK.UP.
Boerwar, endlessly calling on ScoMo and Gladys to resign is about as pointless and likely to be effective as is me calling on you for something of substance rather than hate-filled tropes for the already converted
I stand corrected then, Dave. Thanks.
Speaking as a total layman:
On the number of infections settling in NSW (and I hope Victoria) I suspect it has something to do with getting out of close winter quarters. All other things being equal, the ability to spread out in summer should reduce the aggressiveness of the spread.
Of course, all things are not equal.
If we start behaving like they did in the southern USA red states during the northern summer we will just create umpteen more opportunities for the virus to spread and mutate.
The problem is that we are (especially the NSW and Federal leadership) too prone to congratulate ourselves on success when it was due to external factors and too quick to reward ourselves for that success instead of staying the course longer. So that could impact too.
Time will tell. I hope things do get better though.
Reporter “Chris” attacking ACT Chief Minister over extending lockdown. Sounds like Uhlmann.
EF
The killers are still there. They are still trying to behave as if killing people with gross negligence can and should be normalized.
They must resign now.
Fitzroy Community School sounds a but unusual – isn’t $18 000 per year expensive for a Victorian private school?
Asked if he is vaccinated, Mr Berryman declined to answer, but said he certainly supported vaccination.
“I don’t it’s relevant to ask anybody that personal question. It’s more than fair to put me up as an ardent pro-vaxxer though.”
“I don’t think it’s relevant for any individual person to answer that one. I’ve made my position on vaccination very clear. I don’t want to be pushing people either way; it’s such a hot topic that, if I say ‘yes I am’, then you will say ‘everybody should be vaccinated’. If I say ‘No I’m not’, you will say I am saying ‘You shouldn’t [be vaccinated]’, so I can’t answer that question.“
Fees to send children to the primary school are $18,000 per student a year.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-children-are-hurting-principal-of-fitzroy-school-at-centre-of-cluster-digs-in-20210913-p58r6x.html
Boerwar, when you include Dan Andrews in this based on last year’s fiasco then at least you could argue consistency in your constant drone. But its not about actual killing, its about whatever you can throw at the other side under any circumstances regardless. You hate them, we all get it. Thats about all you have to offer though
TPOF @ #858 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 12:06 pm
I notice you didn’t actually answer my question. Have you ever considered a career in politics?
On Labor after we have true reduction of Covid high vaccination and it is safe to open up.
I think that there is a lot of wishful thinking and stuck in the now perspective if the LNP think Labor and the Greens for that matter are relying on baseball bats over Covid.
Too little too late has been linked to bushfires.
It has been linked to Covid. It’s going to be linked to:
ICAC
Climate Change where Australia is the villain.
Throw in all the punish the poor in apartheid Sydney as income support was withheld. You the LNP punished Australians to defend ideology.
The whole failure to act on antivaxxers like Craig Kelly.
The fact is Australians know Premiers kept them safe during the pandemic and if Berejikilian recovers to an extent it’s not going To protect either her or Morrison from the embrace of secrecy and running from accountability being obvious to voters.
TPOF @ #861 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 12:07 pm
I would have been the one applauding Julia Gillard.
‘Expat Follower says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 12:20 pm
Boerwar, when you include Dan Andrews…’
________________________
Pathetic partisan attempt at deflection. I have no difficulties with our leaders making a mistake during the pandemic. It is all new. They have all made mistakes.
What I have against Morrison and Berejiklian is that they refused to learn from their own and from other’s mistakes.
This is the negligence that turned them into deadly killers that they are.
They must resign now.
EF
‘The very basic problem for the LNP.
They are the government. They have set up the surveillance state issue of the protestors Craig Kelly is appealing to.
An election on civil liberties the progressives win. The fear and hate turns on the repressive government. There is a reason other than the LNP a Federal ICAC has reached across the political aisle. We had a foretaste. The Sudanese Gang campaign in Victoria
According to Wikipedia, Keneally’s full name is Kristina Marie Kerscher Keneally.
So, really, if someone is insistent on using her full initials, for reasons I’m sure are totally innocent and have nothing whatsoever to do with linking a political figure they don’t like to a notorious white supremecist movement or baiting other Poll Bludger users into arguing with them for hours on end, the proper acronym would actually be KMKK, not KKK.
Sounds like “home schooling” by proxy.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/13/weekend-developments/comment-page-16/#comment-3702305
Not sure who came up with the phrase, but I get health info from medical prof or other trusted sources, pollyTICs not so much …
TPOF says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 12:07 pm
Jaeger says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 12:06 pm
(Apologies if that has already been posted today.)
Strong Female Lead: viscerally powerful film lets the Gillard years speak for themselves
Really not to restart the stupid stupid.. Rudd Gillard wars.. I found the intro moving, genuine happiness at a significant moment .. Red Kerry & all .. what a fucking wasted opportunity….
In response to Christian Porter updating his parliamentary pecuniary interests register, to declare he got money from a “blind trust”
Douglas and Milko @ #871 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 12:16 pm
And now you know where the mental health over physical health mindset comes from.
Meanwhile in the Wild Wild West.
.
All WA residents over 12 to be eligible for Pfizer
WA premier Mark McGowan is speaking now.
WA is offering Pfizer vaccines to everyone aged over 12 from Monday, September 20.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/sep/14/australia-covid-updates-gladys-berejiklian-coronavirus-nsw-scott-morrison-vaccines#:~:text=All%20WA%20residents,Monday%2C%20September%2020.
McGowan announces Pfizer jabs for over 60s
Pfizer jabs will be made available to West Australians aged over 60 from next Monday in a major overhaul of the State’s vaccination roll-out.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/premier-mark-mcgowan-announces-pfizer-vaccinations-for-over-60s-in-western-australia-ng-b882004306z
I didn’t think about the RGR aspect – sorry.
I haven’t watched it yet, so don’t know how I’ll react yet.
Evan
Yeah, Julia Gillard should have given up the first time she lost preselection. There was obviously no future for her in the Labor party.
C@t
FCS is an independent, alternative primary school. It has its own unique style of operation. Our school has a relaxed atmosphere and good outcomes at the same time. Children are keen on learning and keen on coming to school. The most common comment that visitors make is that it feels like an extended family.
Unusual would be an understatement… are they accredited .. do they get Gov. funding.. for a “hippy club” ?
I hope none of the above is correct, this looks like a rort waiting to be exploited..”roll is kept to the size of a large, extended family”
At FCS, the roll is kept to the size of a large, extended family. This is deliberate. Everybody knows everybody, and the individual feels valued. It’s not just another institution.
FCS is an independent, alternative primary school. It has its own unique style of operation. Our school has a relaxed atmosphere and good outcomes at the same time. Children are keen on learning and keen on coming to school. The most common comment that visitors make is that it feels like an extended family.
At FCS, the roll is kept to the size of a large, extended family. This is deliberate. Everybody knows everybody, and the individual feels valued. It’s not just another institution.
http://www.fcs.vic.edu.au
@TimHollo tweets
Aargh, another 4 weeks of lockdown. Vital for public health, but this means it is SO crucial that the Federal Government steps up to #PayPeopleToStayHome. It’s hard for all of us, but it’s essentially impossible for people living in poverty.
ACT Govt increasing the utilities concession to $1000. This is important. And more crisis response funding coming for mental health and community services.
Question to the wise.
Is it possible from the data available to know if the ref is decreasing equally across Sydney and surrounds. I am happy it’s going down as that is in the best interests of the entire country, but am concerned that with lower testing rates in the non lockdown suburbs, it could be a false decline in actual cases.
Former prime minister Paul Keating has weighed into a Labor dispute over the selection of Kristina Keneally for a key seat in the lower house, declaring her a “huge executive talent” who will fight for those who deserve a bigger share of the nation’s wealth.
Mr Keating backed Senator Keneally as the best candidate for the electorate of Fowler in western Sydney, saying she had proven her ability to advocate for working people and defend Labor values.
“What western Sydney needs is someone with this ability – an ability to garner or eke out a bigger share of the national income, because people in western Sydney live on the ebb and flow of the economy.
“Broadly, they don’t have capital, they have nothing to sell but their time, and therefore public policy – whether it be in wages, in health, in education – materially matter to their quality of life, particularly now with COVID.
“Local candidates may be genuine and well-meaning but they would take years to scramble to her level of executive ability – if they can ever get there at all.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/good-intentions-are-not-enough-paul-keating-backs-keneally-as-the-mp-fowler-needs-20210914-p58rid.html
I’ve had worse earworms…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19RJKnh9hbU
Keating joins the debate over KK’s Fowler pre-selection:
[‘Former prime minister Paul Keating has weighed into a Labor dispute over the selection of Kristina Keneally for a key seat in the lower house, declaring her a “huge executive talent” who will fight for those who deserve a bigger share of the nation’s wealth.
Mr. Keating backed Senator Keneally as the best candidate for the electorate of Fowler in western Sydney, saying she had proven her ability to advocate for working people and defend Labor values.
“What western Sydney needs is someone with this ability – an ability to garner or eke out a bigger share of the national income, because people in western Sydney live on the ebb and flow of the economy.
“Broadly, they don’t have capital, they have nothing to sell but their time, and therefore public policy – whether it be in wages, in health, in education – materially matter to their quality of life, particularly now with COVID.
“Local candidates may be genuine and well-meaning but they would take years to scramble to her level of executive ability – if they can ever get there at all.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/good-intentions-are-not-enough-paul-keating-backs-keneally-as-the-mp-fowler-needs-20210914-p58rid.html
Le will eventually have her 15 minutes but KK is a much better choice, for the reasons advanced by Keating.
An aside, P1, as others have pointed out, KK’s initials are KKMK. Accordingly, your reference to her as “KKK” is an extremely cheap shot, her record in public life completly undeserving of such a disparaging monniker as she’s the anithesis of this racist, bigoted, antisemtic, homophobic, misogynistic group of white American males, who not that long ago were still lynching African Americans (last reported, Michael Donald in Mobile, Alabama, on March 21, 1981). You should do the right thing, but you won’t.
More from PJK..
Mr Keating said Senator Keneally “absolutely” had the qualities needed to be a cabinet minister in a federal Labor government.
“She’s in the top handful of people in the party and, as her performance in the Senate shows, she’s a great advocate for Labor’s value system,” he said.
“And she has what a lot of people in the Labor Party do not have, and that is a permanent sense of indignation about those less well-off.”
Asha @ #878 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 12:35 pm
I quite like KKK. I don’t know where you would have gotten any other impression. It is only the process of her selection that I have issues with. If something similar had happened in my electorate, overruling a local candidate who had strong connections to the area and its people (as, you might recall, the Liberals actually did in my own electorate of Gilmore) I would be equally annoyed, and I would not support any party that did such a thing. This was probably the main reason the Liberals lost Gilmore.
It is a very minor point, and I am not even sure why we are still discussing it (except it provides some people here a means of deflecting from the real substantive issue) but KKK doesn’t, as far as I know, ever refer to herself as “Marie”. However, she does routinely use all the K’s, especially for official purposes. For example:
http://www.womenaustralia.info/leaders/biogs/WLE0313b.htm
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/members/formermembers/Pages/former-member-details.aspx?pk=2171
This is the name I have always known her by, and I think it is reasonable to refer to her using the name she chooses to use herself.
Snap Mavis – I’d take Keating’s assessment over that of the SmearStralian and assorted whingers
Assantdj
This is what Casey Briggs had to say in this space
Outside the NSW LGAs of concern, these are the LGAs with the most cases in the past week.
A significant number of cases in Sydney and Randwick.
Number eight on the list is “Correctional settings” https://t.co/npDH4wObiX