Weekend developments

Joel Fitzgibbon calls it a day, and other federal preselection news.

The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.

For the time being, there is the following:

• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.

• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.

• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Weekend developments”

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  2. Jaeger @ #890 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 1:04 pm

    3AW Breakfast @RossAndRussel

    Mobile pet groomers have been given the green light to operate after a Health Department backflip.

    A listener has sent us what’s possibly the best dog grooming photo of all time.

    Send us your photos if you think you can beat this!

    I was able to get my dog done as a welfare case this morning. Had to send through some doco and photos. Amazed at the difference.

  5. It was heartening this morning hearing Albo giving the media a history lesson in diversity and representation this morning. Some no doubt will be googling ‘Al Grasby’ tonight….or not.
    Voters need constant reminding of just how much they owe previous Labor governments and how little there is to celebrate about coalition ones who almost always manage to end up on the wrong side of history.

  6. sprocket_ @ #893 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 1:17 pm

    Former prime minister Paul Keating has weighed into a Labor dispute over the selection of Kristina Keneally for a key seat in the lower house, declaring her a “huge executive talent” who will fight for those who deserve a bigger share of the nation’s wealth.

    Wheeling out the big guns. Clearly, this issue is causing Labor grief, and it is not just a bunch of self-panickers here on PB.

    The really interesting question is how on earth Labor could be so out of touch that they really thought they could just slip this one though?

  7. Keating

    “Local candidates may be genuine and well-meaning but they would take years to scramble to her level of executive ability – if they can ever get there at all.”

    Rare gift to use a buzz expression and be condescending in the one sentence.

  8. I was able to get my dog done as a welfare case this morning. Had to send through some doco and photos. Amazed at the difference.

    Short-haired breeds FTW.

  10. @TheShovel tweets

    Snipe all you want. But who here among us can honestly say that they haven’t had someone anonymously pay them to cover $1 million in legal fees for a law suit they initiated?


  11. Player One says:
    Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:54 am

    Someone should tell Albo to stop digging …

    Anthony Albanese today in Sydney when asked about cultural diversity in Labor:

    “Kristina Keneally was born in the United States, came to Australia and is another great Australian success story of a migrant who’s come here and became the NSW Premier.”

    It is mt view, which matters even less than your trolling, since you outed yourself as a Liberal Troll the quality of your trolling has deteriorated considerable.

  12. sprocket_ says:

    Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 1:21 pm

    [‘Snap Mavis – I’d take Keating’s assessment over that of the SmearStralian and assorted whingers.]

    Wer’e on the same wavelenght with this one.The MSM seem to be pushing this story more than the Tories – perhaps due to them having a few skeletons?

    _________________________________

    P1:

    [‘I quite like KKK. I don’t know where you would have gotten any other impression.’]

    You really are wilful, with, as I predicted, no intention of
    withdrawing your clear intention of associating KK with the KKK.

  14. If a pollster was to poll a genuinely random selection of the voters of Fowler, my pretty certain guess would be that most would have heard of Scott Morrison, somewhat less would have heard of Anthony Albanese, and derisible numbers would have heard of Kristina Keneally, Tu Le or Chris Hayes. Possibly a few more of Kristina Keneally because of her past and present political profile.

    This is an issue of the chattering political classes only. And the journalists who feed off them like parasites. Oh, and the ABC, Murdoch and Costello’s outfit running distractions from the utter incompetence of the Prime Minister they support (although a few are finding it difficult to ignore the stench of rotting fish emanating from him).

  17. I’d like to see some polls in Fowler. Will it be one more seat Labor have to make up at the election? How torn up are the Vietnamese? What do the Islamic community make of all this? Inquiring minds want to know.

  20. Richard Chirgwin
    @R_Chirgwin
    ·
    6m
    FWIW, I’ve tried over the years to draw Australian journalists’ attention to how abuse gets amplified by inauthentic accounts, but they’re not interested. Much easier to ascribe abuse to political affiliation.

  21. This is looking promising…

    68.5% of Australians have received a first vaccine dose

    More than 14.1 million Australians have now received at least a first Covid vaccine dose.

    Less than 400,000 Australians need to be vaccinated to put Australia beyond the 70% first dose rate.

  25. As far as I am aware, there is no current member of the Commonwealth Parliament with the initials ‘KKK.’

    So, this has been a non-conversation about no one.

  26. She’s really lovely Jaeger, thanks.

    Are you Sydney? Sydney Festival did a Dido in 2014, choreographed (some would say over choreographed) by German Sasha Waltz, with the Akademie fur Alte Musik Berlin, risking the old more is less trope. Anyway, it was good festival fare.

    We got involved because Sasha’s muso husband and MOH had some common ground, and a very dear English friend, who left her English husband to marry the German opera director she met amongst the dust and rubble of the falling Berlin Wall (as you do), was one of the principals.

    It went a bit like this:

    https://youtu.be/u7nKmm7a71Q

  27. If the so-called journalist did their job professionally and impartially for all side of politics , they might get some support from the public

  28. frednk @ #909 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 1:38 pm

    It is mt view, which matters even less than your trolling, since you outed yourself as a Liberal Troll the quality of your trolling has deteriorated considerable.

    You call me a Liberal Troll because it enables you to snark without actually engaging.

    The bit I find amusing is not that I am not a Liberal (nor a Troll, for that matter) – it is that I am the very type of swinging voter you will have to engage with to win the election.

    But you can’t do that. All you can do is snark.

  31. Scott at 2:07 pm

    If the so-called journalist did their job

    They are doing their job. Just as it is at any workplace their job is to do whatever their employer expect of them.

  32. Snappy Tom @ #923 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 2:07 pm

    As far as I am aware, there is no current member of the Commonwealth Parliament with the initials ‘KKK.’

    So, this has been a non-conversation about no one.

    It is certainly an issue of no substance, except to allow some Labor people here to use their confected outrage to avoid actually engaging with the issue.

  33. Lurker:

    Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    [‘I’d like to see some polls in Fowler. Will it be one more seat Labor have to make up at the election?’]

    There may be some blowback for Labor in the Vietnamese community but on a buffer of nearly 14%, Labor will easily retain the seat, neither Hayes nor Le having the experience of KK, who’ll no doubt go out of her way to represent her constituents.

  35. Lurker @ #928 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 2:10 pm

    Tony Burke not happy with the Fowler situation:

    While senior Labor frontbencher Tony Burke– a close friend of Hayes– issued a veiled warning to his party, suggesting that “if in these conversations a local community feels taken for granted, you make those decisions at your peril.”

    https://womensagenda.com.au/politics/power-corrupts-the-opportunity-missed-by-labor-parachuting-keneally-into-fowler/

    Powerful stuff …

    Tu Le spoke out on Facebook this morning for the first time, with a potent message, “power corrupts”.

    “What broke the camel’s back was finding out that so called representative leaders in my own community and those I considered friends threw their support behind someone else by belittling me and my contributions to the community,” she wrote.

    “I’m calling this out because it is downright WRONG for our leaders to use their positions of power for their own personal gains. Whether it’s in the highest offices of this country or at the community level, we should NEVER accept this behaviour from those who represent us.”

    Le went further, criticising some members of parliament for using multiculturalism as a political card expertly played but never truly supported.

    “For far too long, political parties have relied on superficial connections to our diverse communities,” she said.

    “Some politicians only come to our festivals and events (especially before an election) for photo-ops, while “wearing a sari and eating some Kung Pao chicken to make themselves look good”. (Thanks Anne Aly for your solidarity!). It feels like they seek our support only when looking for fundraising and membership opportunities.”

    So … nothing to see here … move along … 🙁

  36. KK might have plenty of experience. Not being from NSW I don’t have much exposure to her. She does seem like a good media performer, but most of what I have seen of her was in her time on Sky News. To be honest, her performances there didn’t indicate someone who was interested in being a Champion for the battlers of Fowler. I mostly remember her and PVO taking the piss and laughing a lot of the time.

    It will either be a disaster or a masterstroke.

  37. Can Mr Porter rule out that his legal defence was funded by criminals? Can he rule out that it was funded by foreign governments – or by people who stand to benefit from decisions he makes as Minister? Apparently he can’t – and neither he nor Mr Morrison see any problem with it. https://t.co/x0DtNfgSsq— Mark Dreyfus (@markdreyfusQCMP) September 14, 2021

  40. Interesting point of view put forward by both Albanese and Keating re the “ migrant” background of KK.

    Is any person who was born overseas and comes to Australia to live a migrant or is it only people from a certain country, countries or region able to identify as such ?

    There seems to be some mirth and even angst from commentators here and elsewhere about KK being identified as having a migrant background. She was born overseas , came to Australia, became a Australian citizen and renounced her country of birth citizenship. What is wrong with describing her as having a migrant background ? Is it because she is Caucasian, lives in a million dollar home or some other reason ?

    That is as deep into the issue I intend to go but I will not be surprised if some interesting perspectives bubble to the top when this topic of “ is KK entitled to be called a migrant “is discussed.

  42. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 2:03 pm
    42.25% 16+ fully vaccinated
    34/38 ranked in OECD

    Watch this space in the top ten in 2 months with far far less deaths than all others.

    While we are at it where is Australia in the OECD in regards to deaths how about you paint the full picture.

  44. Rabbit Hole Alert

    Verily.

    e.g. The Cornett seems to be the “missing link” between woodwind and brass instruments.

    (symphonized is an interesting verb)

    Yeah… Presented as given.

  48. My main knowledge of Kristina is from her “forensic” questioning during Estimates, which I admired. This will be lost if she’s in the Lower House, but I assume she would get a Ministry in a Labor government and therefore have a purpose and a platform.

    I agree that placing her in the “multicultural migrant” box is a bit of a stretch.

  49. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 1:17 pm
    Former prime minister Paul Keating has weighed into a Labor dispute over the selection of Kristina Keneally for a key seat in the lower house, declaring her a “huge executive talent” who will fight for those who deserve a bigger share of the nation’s wealth.

    Mr Keating backed Senator Keneally as the best candidate for the electorate of Fowler in western Sydney, saying she had proven her ability to advocate for working people and defend Labor values.
    “What western Sydney needs is someone with this ability – an ability to garner or eke out a bigger share of the national income, because people in western Sydney live on the ebb and flow of the economy.

    “Broadly, they don’t have capital, they have nothing to sell but their time, and therefore public policy – whether it be in wages, in health, in education – materially matter to their quality of life, particularly now with COVID.

    “Local candidates may be genuine and well-meaning but they would take years to scramble to her level of executive ability – if they can ever get there at all.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/good-intentions-are-not-enough-paul-keating-backs-keneally-as-the-mp-fowler-needs-20210914-p58rid.html
    ”

    Nobody can put it better than Keating. He has a way with words.

  50. Will Morrison put his money where his mouth is regarding federal funding to the anti-lockdown and anti-vaxxer private school owner in Fitzroy?

    Or more accurately, will Morrison withdraw funding to such a school?

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