Essential Research and YouGov COVID polling

Support for vaccine passports as a way out of COVID restrictions, but existing lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria retain strong support for now.

Two fairly meaty items of attitudinal polling on COVID-19 today, starting with the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which also included its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison’s ratings were hardly changed, with approval steady at 50% and disapproval up one to 41%, while Anthony Albanese’s were slightly improved, with approval up three to 37% and disapproval down two to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister nonetheless widened slightly, from 45-26 to 47-26. Offered a choice between the proposition that the government deserved to be re-elected and that it was “time to give someone else a go”, respondents favoured the latter over the former by 41% over 36%, which sits well with the tenor of recent voting intention polling.

On COVID-19 management, the federal government’s good rating was down two to 39% and its bad rating was up one to 36%. Of the state governments with almost meaningful sample sizes, the good rating of the New South Wales government was down two to 40%, that of the Victorian government tumbled 12 points to 44%, and the Queensland government was up a point to 67%. Of those with entirely inadequate sample sizes, the Western Australian government’s good rating was down nine to 78% and South Australia’s was up eight to 76%.

A series of questions on COVID-19 strategy produced the rather striking finding that 61% favoured the low-ball option of “less than 100 deaths per year” when asked how many would be “acceptable to ‘live with’ in Australia as lockdown restrictions are removed”. Furthermore, current lockdown restrictions remain strongly supported, with 56% in New South Wales and 57% in Victoria considering their states’ settings to be “about right”. However, the balance is tipping towards them being thought too strong, at 28% and 35% respectively, compared with too weak, at 16% and 8% respectively.

Another question found only 12% favoured Australia living with COVID-19 “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”, compared with 44% apeice who favoured a near-zero policy and living with a few cases “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”. There were notable differences between the lockdown states and the others: 38% in New South Wales and 37% in Victoria favoured a near-zero strategy, compared with 50% in Queensland, 51% in South Australia and 59% in Western Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Also out today through the News Corp papers is a large-sample survey on COVID-19 conducted by YouGov, results from which can be viewed in The Australian here. This featured a number of questions on how things should be “when everyone has the opportunity to be fully vaccinated”, which 41% thought should mean an end to lockdowns, although a not inconsiderable 37% felt otherwise. Respondents from Western Australia were most pro-lockdown, those from New South Wales and Victoria least so. Younger respondents and parents of children in school were more likely to be pro-lockdown; those who did not wish to be vaccinated, accounting for 13% of the total sample, were most opposed.

The poll similarly found that 66% would eventually favour French-style vaccine passports for a range of public activities; 63% state borders being kept open only for the vaccinated; and 68% likewise with respect to overseas travel. Only 23% were opposed to the notion that employers should be able to demand their staff be vaccinated, compared with 69% who supported it for “frontline or public-facing jobs”, inclusive of 45% who thought it should be allowed across the board. Clear majorities were in favour of compulsory vaccinations for aged-care workers, nurses, school staff, public transport workers, take-away restaurant and food delivery workers, public servants and hospitality workers, and opinion was about evenly divided for construction workers and tradies.

Respondents were also given a choice between uncompromising anti-lockdown (“lockdowns should be ended immediately”) and pro-lockdown (“lockdowns must be part of Australia’s future until COVID-19 is completely eliminated”) positions and the much looser middle-ground option that “vaccination is the pathway to ending lockdowns”, which when you put it like that gets respective results of 14%, 22% and 64%. The survey was conducted by YouGov from August 20 to 25 from a sample of 3114.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Essential Research and YouGov COVID polling”

Comments Page 4 of 25
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  1. Hugoaugogo @ #131 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 8:46 am

    Barney – yes, there’s a lot of truth to that. However, the lagging vaccination rates in the zero Covid bastions of WA and Qld suggest that it would have taken several more months to get to the requisite 80% vax rate, in the absence of an outbreak somewhere. It’s no coincidence that NSW is far and away the highest-vaxxed state now, because the threat of Covid (both to health and in avoiding lockdowns) is kinda ever-present in NSW right now, and so there is a clear and present incentive to get vaccinated. In WA, not so much. It could be that an event like the NSW outbreak (and to a lesser extent the Victorian one) was always going to be the event that spurred on vaccination rates, in which case it follows that it was always likely we’d get an outbreak somewhere long before we got to an overall 80% (or even 70%) vax rate..

    The scale of the outbreak in NSW wasn’t inevitable. It’s as a direct result of the State Government’s slow response.

    This has potentially changed the picture in Australia and leaves you open to what the rest of the world has been experiencing.

    You guys seem to have little idea how lucky you have been and the unique opportunity you have/had to transition from basically zero cases.

    If the virus is now a permanent resident in Australia then things will get very ugly while vaccinations are below the level required for herd immunity. I suspect that percentage is considerably higher than the one being touted by Morrison.

  4. ”
    BKsays:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 11:04 am
    With 1116 new cases we will see a slight reduction in the Reff.
    ”

    Looks like COVID-21 numbers are reducing in NSW and increasing in Victoria. It appears things are getting murkier for Labor.

  5. Scottsays:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 10:43 am
    People were consistently claiming the Liberal Party would not get rid of Turnbull before the 2019 federal election because he was too popular in the PPM

    September 2018 comes along , Bye Bye Malcolm Turnbull
    ________________
    Maybe they used internal polling. Just like Gillard used to roll Rudd.

  7. Shellbell
    The Reff number is a calculation that indicates the average number of people an infected person will pass the disease onto. So, a Reff of 1.3 means that for every 10 people infected they will, on average, infect 13 other people. And so on.
    It is only when the Reff goes below 1 that the daily rate of new infections will begin to decrease.

  9. Barney – I don’t necessarily disagree with what you say. But I am unconvinced that we would have somehow reached the magical 80% vax rate this year (or possibly even at all) in the absence of a major outbreak. I knew plenty of people in Sydney back in May who were mildly surprised that both my wife and I rushed to get vaccinated as soon as it was opened up to us. These people weren’t anti-vaxxers in any way, but they really didn’t see the rush. They do now.

    It remains to be seen whether WA and Qld will get to 80% this year, in the absence of an outbreak in those states. And if they don’t, and NSW and Victoria do and open back up on the back of that, what do WA and Qld do then?

  10. Albo does not do much to inspire me I must confess, but this does not alter the fact that once he puts on the mantle of Prime Minister, it will be amazing just how good he will look and, on the down side, what a “yesterday” man Morrison will seem…
    Re McGowan, that good judge of good character in politics, Christian Porter, said something like “Why would West Australians vote for that sweaty man, McGowan”……………..

  12. Tricot @ #NaN Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 11:13 am

    Albo does not do much to inspire me I must confess, but this does not alter the fact that once he puts on the mantle of Prime Minister, it will be amazing just how good he will look and, on the down side, what a “yesterday” man Morrison will seem…
    Re McGowan, that good judge of good character in politics, Christian Porter, said something like “Why would West Australians vote for that sweaty man, McGowan”……………..

    Alternatively, why would anyone vote for that bloodless, Male Chauvinist Pig, Christian Porter? 🙂

  14. Criticism of WA’s rate of vaccination roll-out should be targeted directly at those who have stuffed up the supply.
    Slow, irregular supply from the Feds has also allowed the nut-cases ample time to organise their propaganda against vaccination.

  15. It remains to be seen whether WA and Qld will get to 80% this year, in the absence of an outbreak in those states. And if they don’t, and NSW and Victoria do and open back up on the back of that, what do WA and Qld do then?

    Ask for more bloody vaccines from Scott Morrison and Greg Hunt.

  16. U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 164,984 ………………………. – New deaths: 1,394

    – In hospital: 100,893 (+39)
    – In ICU: 26,187 (+304)

    657,909 total deaths now

  18. Taylormade says:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 11:10 am

    Maybe they used internal polling. Just like Gillard used to roll Rudd.
    ——————

    But Turnbull claimed the Liberal party internal polling shows lib/nats were in front 52- 48

  20. Hugoagogo
    You can stop stressing over the poor cave dwellers in other states. As of 3 days ago fully vaccinated NSW 31.5% WA 27.2% Qld. 27.9%. A table in the Guardian yesterday projecting estimated 80% times had WA a mere 22 days behind the Gladystan.

  21. Victoria @ #143 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 11:02 am

    1116 cases NSW

    C@tmomma @ #163 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 11:17 am

    It remains to be seen whether WA and Qld will get to 80% this year, in the absence of an outbreak in those states. And if they don’t, and NSW and Victoria do and open back up on the back of that, what do WA and Qld do then?

    Ask for more bloody vaccines from Scott Morrison and Greg Hunt.

    Exactly. Vaccination rates so far have been almost completely determined by SUPPLY, not demand.

    Anyone obsessing about hesitancy is just buying into the government’s framing. SO STOP IT

  22. Her ability to not answer questions is beyond measure.

    Matched only by her inconsistency: 70% adults one sentence, 70% our citizens next sentence

  23. What will be important about the increase in Victorian numbers, is the spatial distribution.

    In Canberra the sites of concern were originally concentrated mostly on the north side, particularly in the inner north and the district of Gungahlin. Now the sites are spread more evenly across the city and our nearest shopping centre in the far south joined the list a few days ago.

  24. Looks like COVID-21 numbers are reducing in NSW and increasing in Victoria.

    No and yes.

    In the case of NSW, this might be yet another pause on the way up. Numbers briefly seemed to plateau around 200, low 400s and mid 600s before resuming their remorseless slow exponential – 6 to 6½% daily, doubling every 10-12 days.

    It appears things are getting murkier for Labor. Don’t see why but whatever…

  25. The Age 01/09
    But Premier Daniel Andrews conceded on Tuesday that the mental health effects of the latest lockdown had been “bloody tough”.
    ________________
    Now that Dan has conceded that mental heath is an issue with the latest lockdown will GG and Vic ?

    Or will they continue to maintain it is simply O’Brien and Credlin playing politics and not give a shit about the mental health issues facing many Victorians.

  26. Hugoaugogo @ #157 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 9:13 am

    Barney – I don’t necessarily disagree with what you say. But I am unconvinced that we would have somehow reached the magical 80% vax rate this year (or possibly even at all) in the absence of a major outbreak. I knew plenty of people in Sydney back in May who were mildly surprised that both my wife and I rushed to get vaccinated as soon as it was opened up to us. These people weren’t anti-vaxxers in any way, but they really didn’t see the rush. They do now.

    It remains to be seen whether WA and Qld will get to 80% this year, in the absence of an outbreak in those states. And if they don’t, and NSW and Victoria do and open back up on the back of that, what do WA and Qld do then?

    The other States will have little choice but to continue to shut their borders.

    To do otherwise exposes their populations unnecessarily.

    That’s why the vaccine roll out needs to be rolled out evenly throughout the country and opening up requires all to reach the appropriate vaccination level.

    My house is 100% vaccinated, does that mean that restrictions shouldn’t apply to me?

    Of course not, we all live in the society and here the society as a whole should rightly take precedence over any of my selfish desires.

  27. ”
    BKsays:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 11:11 am
    Shellbell
    The Reff number is a calculation that indicates the average number of people an infected person will pass the disease onto. So, a Reff of 1.3 means that for every 10 people infected they will, on average, infect 13 other people. And so on.
    It is only when the Reff goes below 1 that the daily rate of new infections will begin to decrease.
    ”

    Is Reff below 1 now as cases have reduced for 3 consecutive days?

  28. I certainly agree that the Federal government has botched the vaccine roll-out, and no doubt that is part of the reason for slow take-up of vaccination in some states. But it’s also the case that motivation to get vaccinated in zero Covid states is undoubtedly lower than in those where Covid is on the loose. I’m criticising those citizens in WA and Qld and elsewhere who haven’t got around to arranging their vaccination yet – as I say, Sydney was exactly the same back in May. But the primary reason NSW vax rates have gone through the roof is because our Covid outbreak has got out of control and we’ve been in lockdown for two months. We now understand in a very real sense that vaccination is our only ticket out of this mess, whereas in the zero Covid states that understanding is more theoretical.

  30. Taylormade

    The moral to the Liberal Party leadership is, whoever the foreign Tycoon Murdoch wants to be the leader of the liberal party , it doesnt matter to Murdoch or his cronies if the Liberal party leader is popular or Lib/nats are in front of the polling.

    If Murdoch and his cronies want Morrison gone this month or any time before the upcoming federal election that what will happen

  31. N:

    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 10:13 am

    [‘If Dutton deposed Morrison, the LNP will lose almost all their seats. He is absolutely unelectable.’]

    That was my implicit point though he’d probably do reasonably well in regional Qld and outer suburban Brisbane.

  32. Dopey as well as Gaslighting…

    Gladys Berejiklian ‘can’t recall’ worst case modelling

    Gladys Berejiklian says she can’t recall the worst case modelling, which is why she can’t share it.

    I’ve seen various versions of modelling and I can’t recall all the numbers but I can tell you this much – that we know that the rate of hospitalisations is likely to peak some time in October.

  35. Hugoaugogo @ #175 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 9:24 am

    I certainly agree that the Federal government has botched the vaccine roll-out, and no doubt that is part of the reason for slow take-up of vaccination in some states. But it’s also the case that motivation to get vaccinated in zero Covid states is undoubtedly lower than in those where Covid is on the loose. I’m criticising those citizens in WA and Qld and elsewhere who haven’t got around to arranging their vaccination yet – as I say, Sydney was exactly the same back in May. But the primary reason NSW vax rates have gone through the roof is because our Covid outbreak has got out of control and we’ve been in lockdown for two months. We now understand in a very real sense that vaccination is our only ticket out of this mess, whereas in the zero Covid states that understanding is more theoretical.

    If you look at the figures it’s been quite a while since supply has outstripped demand anywhere in Australia, so it does now seem to be not enough vaccines anywhere.

  36. Barney – I think that’s exactly what will happen: your household, being fully vaxxed, with start getting exemptions from Covid restrictions that the unvaccinated won’t have. While I agree that a collective approach is always best, to put it another way, why should your household continue to live in lockdown because a few recalcitrants refuse to get vaccinated? To be clear, I’m deliberately setting up a false dichotomy, but in time that dynamic will become more and more prevalent.

  37. Today’s graph of NSW daily local Covid cases- the blue line is three-point centred average (yesterday, today, tomorrow) to 31/8/2021. The orange line is a straight line that I drew.

    As you can see, it took a few breathers on the way up:

  38. Poor Pauline. Perhaps the only advances she gets are from … perhaps I’d better not finish that sentence.

    Sally McManus
    @sallymcmanus
    ·
    1h
    So it looks like Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is going to vote against Respect@Work – protections for all workers against sexual harassment at work

  39. Hugoaugogo @ #184 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 9:28 am

    Barney – I think that’s exactly what will happen: your household, being fully vaxxed, with start getting exemptions from Covid restrictions that the unvaccinated won’t have. While I agree that a collective approach is always best, to put it another way, why should your household continue to live in lockdown because a few recalcitrants refuse to get vaccinated? To be clear, I’m deliberately setting up a false dichotomy, but in time that dynamic will become more and more prevalent.

    For the good of the Society as a whole.

    Your recalcitrants include kids too young to be vaccinated and those who for medical reasons can not take the vaccine.

    But what the hell, stuff them!

    I want to go to on a holiday or down to the pub.

  40. Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    1h
    A typically disgusting performance from
    @PaulineHansonOz
    in the Senate this morning.
    Attacking @BrittHiggins_ and launching an incoherent, manic, onslaught against women’s rights, and the Human Rights Commission.
    One Nation, a bunch of racist, misogynistic, right wing nut jobs!

  42. lizzie @ #188 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 11:35 am

    Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    1h
    A typically disgusting performance from
    @PaulineHansonOz
    in the Senate this morning.
    Attacking @BrittHiggins_ and launching an incoherent, manic, onslaught against women’s rights, and the Human Rights Commission.
    One Nation, a bunch of racist, misogynistic, right wing nut jobs!

    Once a fishwife, ….

  44. Reference the discussion about the vaccination rate in WA, we are trying to get my wife an appointment for a second Pfizer. Extremely difficult unless you are prepared for a two to three hour round trip. An additional hub should be opening much closer on Monday but you can’t book an appointment yet.

  45. BK

    Thank you. As Steve777 pointed the ref has been in a very narrow band for a long time – 1.1-1.3. Victoria’s looks like it is entrenching in that narrow band.

    Billington presumably is working on the assumption that a certain level of vaccination will change that.

  46. ”
    Steve777says:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 11:22 am
    Looks like COVID-21 numbers are reducing in NSW and increasing in Victoria.

    No and yes.

    In the case of NSW, this might be yet another pause on the way up. Numbers briefly seemed to plateau around 200, low 400s and mid 600s before resuming their remorseless slow exponential – 6 to 6½% daily, doubling every 10-12 days.

    It appears things are getting murkier for Labor. Don’t see why but whatever…
    ”

    Andrews is projected as the good guy and great leader on this blog where as Gladys is projected as gaslight Gladys, which are in a way true. Gladys scared the shit out of people to get vaccinated in record numbers by keeping COVID-21 numbers high ( which even Hugo attests) whereas Andrews tried his level best to get VOVID-21 numbers to zero but now has to change tack because numbers are stubbornly refusing to get to even low numbers even after strict lockdown for 4 weeks. This is affecting the approval of the government which slipped to 44% whereas Gladys numbers are at 52%. So where is the justice? It appears good people are loosing to ‘gaslighting’ people like they are in US.

  47. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    8m
    Why does NSW have higher vaccination rates – because we were given significant extra doses which should have gone to other states, but arrogant Gladys pointing the finger jubilantly that Victoria has only 40% She is an ugly person.#ResignGladys

  49. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    1m
    So the LGA is not a representative body she will accept as the intermediary for 12 LGA MAYORS. Doesn’t wash,

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