Two fairly meaty items of attitudinal polling on COVID-19 today, starting with the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which also included its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison’s ratings were hardly changed, with approval steady at 50% and disapproval up one to 41%, while Anthony Albanese’s were slightly improved, with approval up three to 37% and disapproval down two to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister nonetheless widened slightly, from 45-26 to 47-26. Offered a choice between the proposition that the government deserved to be re-elected and that it was “time to give someone else a go”, respondents favoured the latter over the former by 41% over 36%, which sits well with the tenor of recent voting intention polling.
On COVID-19 management, the federal government’s good rating was down two to 39% and its bad rating was up one to 36%. Of the state governments with almost meaningful sample sizes, the good rating of the New South Wales government was down two to 40%, that of the Victorian government tumbled 12 points to 44%, and the Queensland government was up a point to 67%. Of those with entirely inadequate sample sizes, the Western Australian government’s good rating was down nine to 78% and South Australia’s was up eight to 76%.
A series of questions on COVID-19 strategy produced the rather striking finding that 61% favoured the low-ball option of “less than 100 deaths per year” when asked how many would be “acceptable to ‘live with’ in Australia as lockdown restrictions are removed”. Furthermore, current lockdown restrictions remain strongly supported, with 56% in New South Wales and 57% in Victoria considering their states’ settings to be “about right”. However, the balance is tipping towards them being thought too strong, at 28% and 35% respectively, compared with too weak, at 16% and 8% respectively.
Another question found only 12% favoured Australia living with COVID-19 “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”, compared with 44% apeice who favoured a near-zero policy and living with a few cases “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”. There were notable differences between the lockdown states and the others: 38% in New South Wales and 37% in Victoria favoured a near-zero strategy, compared with 50% in Queensland, 51% in South Australia and 59% in Western Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Also out today through the News Corp papers is a large-sample survey on COVID-19 conducted by YouGov, results from which can be viewed in The Australian here. This featured a number of questions on how things should be “when everyone has the opportunity to be fully vaccinated”, which 41% thought should mean an end to lockdowns, although a not inconsiderable 37% felt otherwise. Respondents from Western Australia were most pro-lockdown, those from New South Wales and Victoria least so. Younger respondents and parents of children in school were more likely to be pro-lockdown; those who did not wish to be vaccinated, accounting for 13% of the total sample, were most opposed.
The poll similarly found that 66% would eventually favour French-style vaccine passports for a range of public activities; 63% state borders being kept open only for the vaccinated; and 68% likewise with respect to overseas travel. Only 23% were opposed to the notion that employers should be able to demand their staff be vaccinated, compared with 69% who supported it for “frontline or public-facing jobs”, inclusive of 45% who thought it should be allowed across the board. Clear majorities were in favour of compulsory vaccinations for aged-care workers, nurses, school staff, public transport workers, take-away restaurant and food delivery workers, public servants and hospitality workers, and opinion was about evenly divided for construction workers and tradies.
Respondents were also given a choice between uncompromising anti-lockdown (“lockdowns should be ended immediately”) and pro-lockdown (“lockdowns must be part of Australia’s future until COVID-19 is completely eliminated”) positions and the much looser middle-ground option that “vaccination is the pathway to ending lockdowns”, which when you put it like that gets respective results of 14%, 22% and 64%. The survey was conducted by YouGov from August 20 to 25 from a sample of 3114.
”
Alposays:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 8:14 am
“orchbearersays:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 8:05 am
Chris Uhlmann is resorting to pretty crude (culture war) name calling in his columns now……”
Poor Chris, he is just showing that the right-wing of Australian politics are…. panicking… And yes, of course they should, it’s the end of the road for them. I mean, ScuMo will need far more than an ordinary “miracle” to win a 4th consecutive term…. Even the Voting Morons should be ready by now to get rid of him and his mob….
”
Give him some credit. He was Mad Monk in his previous professional life. 🙂
One interesting aspect to feed into the, when will the election be held, rubric, is that COP26 is in November. So it’s hard to imagine that Morrison would want to personally be away from the country to go to it if an election campaign were in full swing. On the other hand, if an election were held before COP26, then he either wouldn’t have to make a damaging commitment that would affect Coalition unity in the run-up to the election because he had lost, or, if he had won then he could use that to buttress a stronger commitment.
”
lizziesays:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 8:26 am
I haven’t seen the ABC news since about 6am, but with the Vic figures rising, I suppose it will dwell on disastrous Victoria all day.
”
True
Chris Bowen
@Bowenchris
Exactly!
That’s why Labor’s Rewiring the Nation policy is important.
As we move to more renewables we need to get the energy from the regions to consumers. Labor’s Rewiring the Nation Fund will do just that.
The world’s climate emergency is Australia’s jobs opportunity.
Morrison wont go to COP26..he will come up with some half-ass excuse not to be there….he knows the optics wont be good if he attends.
Labor have chosen their candidate to take on Christian Porter:
Julia Zemiro
@julia_zemiro
Tracey Roberts is taking on the chance to beat Christian Porter. Join me in a donation to her campaign… #traceyforpearce https://traceyforpearce.com.au/donate
Albo is looking good. LOTO numbers don’t mean much. The focus of thinking/discussion is covid and incomes, and these are working to undermine support for the LNP in every State. The LNP cannot redo the past. They are living with the consequences of their incompetence. The next election will be held either within a few weeks this year or in the first/second quarter next year.
Covid aside, there are signs that household incomes and spending are under pressure. Discretionary spending is down….anecdotally so far, but noticeably. This is in spite of record spending by the Commonwealth. All in all, the political environment is more favourable for Labor than at any time since 2006-7.
[‘Offered a choice between the proposition that the government deserved to be re-elected and that it was “time to give someone else a go”, respondents favoured the latter over the former by 41% over 36%, which sits well with the tenor of recent voting intention polling.’]
That does fit fairly snugly with Morgan & Newspolls. And for whatever reasons, the personal metrics of a prime minister and a LOTO are invariably out of kilter with the 2PP. If I were Dutton I’d strike while the irons hot.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 10:01 am
Labor have chosen their candidate to take on Christian Porter:
Julia Zemiro
@julia_zemiro
Tracey Roberts is taking on the chance to beat Christian Porter. Join me in a donation to her campaign… #traceyforpearce
https://traceyforpearce.com.au/donate
I know Mayor Roberts. If anyone can defeat the odious Porter, she can. I intend to help out in that seat and in Hasluck too.
If Dutton deposed Morrison, the LNP will lose almost all their seats. He is absolutely unelectable.
Apparently Clive Palmer is not the only pest from the East the Sandgropers want to keep out…
lizzie
I think I mentioned that when some people find out what I do, they wait until I am alone, and then they ask me for quotes or opinions about climate change.
It pretty quickly becomes obvious that they want a quote from me supporting climate denialism.
The latest iteration is the “I have a friend and she is becoming unduly stressed about climate change. It is affecting her mental health.”
I am not at all surprised to discover this is a Coalition meme at the moment.
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 9:03 am
C@tmomma @ #69 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 8:58 am
Itza,
Berejiklian better be careful about not meeting with the Mayors of Western Sydney.
1. The federal Liberals were hoping to win seats there to counter losses elsewhere at the election.
2. David Borger, former NSW Labor Minister, is the CEO of Wesroc, and still an influential player.
I’m sure, without Gladys there, much can and will be said. She may think it’s smart to send Shelley Hancock to be her eyes and ears but Hancock won’t be there before and after the meeting.
It fits her immaturity. Big girls make big decisions and face the consequences. Gladys’s shield of denials wont withstand the realities. As the Mayor said, ignore them “at your own peril”. Strong stuff. As in a threat!
”
And the Mayor’s first name is Karen. 🙂
Quasar at 7:02 am
Very much so, 1/2 the cases have come from a big evangelical gathering. Evang3elicals , Mormons and the like are strong in the Pacific Island communities.
Shellbell says:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 8:30 am
Jackol
“Itza –
How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?
I haven’t read Cash’s “output”, but I would guess that the judgment against Palmer’s case against WA was based around an assessment that the measures used by WA were in some way reasonable measures to protect public health.
Hence if high vaccination rates are assessed as changing that balance such that measures that were reasonable without vaccines are no longer reasonable in the presence of high vaccination rates, an equivalent challenge might succeed where Palmer’s original one failed.
IANAL etc etc.”
This is correct. Because Palmer and WA could not agree on the health issue in the High Court argument, the High Court farmed that question off to a judge in the Federal Court who heard medical evidence and concluded that the WA border closure was supported medically. It was that which caused the Federal Govt to jump ship and cleared the way for WA’s easy victory in the HC.
…………………………………………………..
The point being that if McGowan’s border closure in the future is based on expert medical advice from the CHO no judge is going to intervene because of the Constitution.
So AG Cash’s comment is either based on an assumption that McGowan would close the border despite there being no supporting health advice, or her comments are rubbish.
Since there is no basis for the assumption that McGowan would keep the border closed in the absence of medical advice, the Attorney General’s comment can be described only as a legal nonsense.
People said that about Abbott, once upon a time.
Don’t underestimate Dutton. He may be loathed by those of us on the left, and he may have the charisma of a brick, but he’s a cunning and ruthless man who will stop at nothing to win.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 10:14 am
Apparently Clive Palmer is not the only pest from the East the Sandgropers want to keep out…
————————–
Lol
Albo’s 68% disapproval is a typo. The actual figure is 38%.
Obvious typo. 37% approval plus 68% disapproval is too many percent.
Steelydan @ #77 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 7:04 am
The States gave Morrison the gift of time.
What a shame he squandered it!
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 10:14 am
Apparently Clive Palmer is not the only pest from the East the Sandgropers want to keep out…
Are you referring to fast Eddy McGuire?
The Senate has begun with a bang – independent senator Rex Patrick has sought to refer the ATO commissioner Chris Jordan to the privileges committee for refusing to produce documents revealing big business recipients of jobkeeper.
As Senate president Scott Ryan explained, the tax commissioner declined to respond to an order of production of documents on 4 August, citing public interest immunity. On 23 August the Senate explicitly rejected that – and insisted on the documents by 26 August.
Asha @ #115 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 10:27 am
They said it about Howard…..’Why does this man bother’
@Asha – 36%
Let’s not give Abbott more credit than he deserves, Abbott won in spite of himself. Labor handed Government to him. He was the perfect LOTO against a totally self-involved and self-destructive Government – albeit a productive one.
That crash or crash through approach is why he imploded almost immediately after gaining office.
Had Labor done what they should have, and gone early in 2010, Rudd would have crushed Abbott (and I’m not a personal fan of Rudd).
N @ #109 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 10:13 am
Would you please tell the electors who keep sending him back to Canberra.
Hugoaugogo @ #86 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 7:14 am
The problem here is that we were in a position for a more orderly transition based on a high vaccination rate.
The potential now is for a confused and ugly transition where we have little control.
Is Barnyard pissed again?
Guardian blog quoting the best retail politician in the country.
‘Because friends have to understand that your heart is where your legs are as well”.
Asha says:
Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 10:28 am
Albo’s 68% disapproval is a typo. The actual figure is 38%.
………………………………………..
And when it is considered that part of that 38% disapproval presumably includes the likes of Zoomster upthread, it is even less frightening.
I’ve had to sit more than one person down and explain to them that, with tens of thousands of infections starting from as close as 90 minutes’ drive away, the reason our little Snoozeville isn’t rotten with plague is precisely because we have locked down, and because we have banned tourists for the time being.
You need to take them through it slowly and methodically. You need to explain that the infection numbers we see today represent life as it was about tens days in the past. With 9-10 days being roughly the doubling period, it means that if we test and find 100 cases, we really have 200 cases, the other 100 of them hidden. We just can’t see them yet. And when we do see them, the real case load will be 400.
You need to explain that if we relax restrictions we stand a good chance of infections getting out of control, even before we know they are.
I encountered this way back in 1999, with the Y2K phenomenon. It was real, alright, though maybe not as widespread as some claimed. The shysters gave the project a bad name. But nevertheless, there would have been disasters. Working as a software disassembly consultant at the time, I saw them, and saw how they were fixed, one or two too close to the day for my liking.
I also saw other not strictly Y2K problems fixed that serendipitously saved a lot of money and bother. One involved the “divide by 400” exception to calculating leap years. Although divisible by 4, 2000 was NOT a leap year, as it was also divisible by 400. The last one of these exceptions was 1600. The next would be 2400. It wasn’t surprising that a few Cobol programmers working in 1965 (most of them retired, or dead by 200o) missed it. We fixed this problem because it was related to the year 2000, and we were looking at “2000” anyway. Put this down as the analogue of the general drop in cold, flus and other airborne infectious diseases as a result of the increased concentration on public sanitation measures due to COVID. A nice bonus benefit.
Labor’s anti-GFC measures are another case in point. Wayne Swan was famously quoted as saying the economic stimulus worked so well that many were convinced there had been no GFC at all (or at least pushed this line).
Lockdowns can work so well that some of those who benefit from them convince themselves – and unfortunately others – that the lockdowns were unnecessary in the first place. It’s too late when they recant on their death beds.
No political ideology or wealthy politician spouting it, no “Freedom” written up as such on a piece of paper, no God in Heaven, or Devil below, no anecdote about horse pills, cider vinegar or Vitamin C being panacaeas for all ills will save us from the virus. Apart from those lucky to recover, only lockdowns, masks, social distancing and vaccines will do that job.
And if we don’t have lockdowns, it’s a job we don’t even know needs doing until it’s too late.
Lol – can we please get our figures correct.
Morrison is 50-41 – +9 approval
Albanese is 37-36 – +1 approval.
Cool, thanks 🙂
People were consistently claiming the Liberal Party would not get rid of Turnbull before the 2019 federal election because he was too popular in the PPM
September 2018 comes along , Bye Bye Malcolm Turnbull
You have the Greens disapproving of Albo for the entire LOTO period including when 80% of them hid the polling booth and reversing themselves.
You have the far right parties. They’re a gimme for disapprove.
Then you have the undecideds.
Then you have Morrison who knows that if 54/46 stays that way for September and October, he could be getting the mother of all Christmas presents from a Liberal backstabbing emulator.
Barney – yes, there’s a lot of truth to that. However, the lagging vaccination rates in the zero Covid bastions of WA and Qld suggest that it would have taken several more months to get to the requisite 80% vax rate, in the absence of an outbreak somewhere. It’s no coincidence that NSW is far and away the highest-vaxxed state now, because the threat of Covid (both to health and in avoiding lockdowns) is kinda ever-present in NSW right now, and so there is a clear and present incentive to get vaccinated. In WA, not so much. It could be that an event like the NSW outbreak (and to a lesser extent the Victorian one) was always going to be the event that spurred on vaccination rates, in which case it follows that it was always likely we’d get an outbreak somewhere long before we got to an overall 80% (or even 70%) vax rate..
mundo
Why indeed 🙂
A November election seems like wishful thinking.
Governments, as a general rule, cling on to power until the last minute.
Governments who are behind in the polls particularly so.
The only circumstances under which we’d be looking at an election this year —
1. There is a sudden upsurge in popularity for the Morrison government (as in, the present polling numbers are completely reversed);
2. There is a leadership spill and Morrison’s replacement decides to legitimise their position.
Of those options, 2 is the most likely (and it isn’t very).
When it comes to replacing the leader, remember that leadership coups are driven by backbenchers who are worried that (a) they won’t keep their seats and (b) they’re unemployable if they don’t.
Nervous backbenchers don’t have the profile to be the source of leaks, which is why these moves often take the media by surprise (they’re too busy talking to Ministers). They’re also not very rational, so they may well back a candidate for the PMship that the rest of the world sees as stark staring mad.
They’d also rather go out as a Minister, be it for the briefest time possible, to raise their profile and increase their post parliamentary employability, so their allegiance can definitely be bought by prospective candidates.
If Morrison continues to shed votes, his hold on the PMship will get very shaky.
I don’t like making predictions, but I’d see a modified version of 2 as the most likely scenario – Morrison gets replaced and his replacement sticks like glue until the last possible moment.
No early election, regardless.
WA’s vaccination rates aren’t high because they haven’t received supply from the federal government.
He could have been “Prime Minister for life”, don’t you know?
I always thought Turnbull was a lucky chancer, not the noble reformer he was made out to be.
He was born into money, had a lot of chutzpah, a bit of a gift of the gab, a good brain, and turned $50o,000 investment in Ozemail – you only need one Ozemail – into $60,000,000 in a few years. Investor, yes. Businessman, no.
And no guts, either.
If there’s no election in November that means we are going to be sent insane after having to put up with 7 months of Palmer and Kelly ads! 😯
Annastacia Palaszczuk has revealed Queensland families will be permitted to return home from Saturday following the pause on arrivals from hotspot regions.
The Premier had faced fierce backlash for locking out the state’s own residents who were attempting to enter from NSW, Victoria and ACT.
Ms Palaszczuk had ordered a two-week pause on arrivals from last Thursday, citing the hotel quarantine system was at capacity and at risk of posing a Covid-19 health risk.
But this pause will end five days ahead of what was originally flagged by the Premier after infuriating thousands and leaving the state’s own residents stranded.
She told parliament on Wednesday morning the state’s health department had approved the arrival of 50 families on the weekend as capacity in quarantine becomes available.
“As of Saturday, Queensland residents can begin returning from interstate hot spots into hotel quarantine in Queensland,” Ms Palaszczuk said
I think Morrison is in a very difficult position in terms of timing – people dismissing November in quite sweeping terms, which is a logical and reasonable position, have to think… if you’re a leader of a government facing a high-level of uncertainty, do you promise – go to an election off your plan and risk under-delivering or, promise, let things happen (when there’s a high-risk it doesn’t work) and go to the election based on your record, come what may?
As I’ve already said, I’m barracking for an Albo win. If I were polled, I would be quite truthfully putting him as preferred PM.
My comments were in response to other posters. Whether I like Albo or not, it is true to say the media hasn’t paid much attention to him.
I don’t set much store on PPM numbers.
Windhover @ #NaN Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 10:38 am
Yep.
Poroti:
Funnily enough, I was browsing through one of the old election threads the other day – QLD 2015, I believe – and the topic of Mark McGowan came up. The general consensus was that he was a no-hoper unlikely to even make it to the next election.
I also vividly remember visiting relatives in Victoria not long after Brumby lost office, where there was talk about the useless “invisible man” Dan Andrews.
And, of course, we cannot forget that famous seat-warmer, Annastacia Whats-her-name, who had no hope of winning in 2015, then was unlikely to keep her shambolic minority government together for more than a year, and then was surely destined to lose in 2017 and 2020.
The political narrative can shift in the most unexpected ways. Anyone who tries to tells you the outcome of an upcoming election with any kind of certainty is either lying to you or to themselves.
1116 cases NSW
He was going to have a longer run than Menzies, remember!
1116 cases in NSW today, declining for two days in a row.
NSW records 1116 covid cases and four deaths
Malcolm Turnbull was always going to be conveniently disposed of by the Liberal Party after he had outlived his usefullness to them. The Liberal Party don’t forgive, and they don’t forget. The NSW branch of the Liberal Party have never forgiven him for trying to be pre-selected by the Labor Party after he led the Republic ‘Yes’ campaign. And probably ditto for losing the SSM Plebiscite. He virtually had to buy his way into a winnable seat in the Liberal Party with a massive branch stack, as PvO has attested to, being one of his lieutenants.
With 1116 new cases we will see a slight reduction in the Reff.
Looks like big upswings in hospital/ICU/ventilations