Essential Research and YouGov COVID polling

Support for vaccine passports as a way out of COVID restrictions, but existing lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria retain strong support for now.

Two fairly meaty items of attitudinal polling on COVID-19 today, starting with the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which also included its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison’s ratings were hardly changed, with approval steady at 50% and disapproval up one to 41%, while Anthony Albanese’s were slightly improved, with approval up three to 37% and disapproval down two to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister nonetheless widened slightly, from 45-26 to 47-26. Offered a choice between the proposition that the government deserved to be re-elected and that it was “time to give someone else a go”, respondents favoured the latter over the former by 41% over 36%, which sits well with the tenor of recent voting intention polling.

On COVID-19 management, the federal government’s good rating was down two to 39% and its bad rating was up one to 36%. Of the state governments with almost meaningful sample sizes, the good rating of the New South Wales government was down two to 40%, that of the Victorian government tumbled 12 points to 44%, and the Queensland government was up a point to 67%. Of those with entirely inadequate sample sizes, the Western Australian government’s good rating was down nine to 78% and South Australia’s was up eight to 76%.

A series of questions on COVID-19 strategy produced the rather striking finding that 61% favoured the low-ball option of “less than 100 deaths per year” when asked how many would be “acceptable to ‘live with’ in Australia as lockdown restrictions are removed”. Furthermore, current lockdown restrictions remain strongly supported, with 56% in New South Wales and 57% in Victoria considering their states’ settings to be “about right”. However, the balance is tipping towards them being thought too strong, at 28% and 35% respectively, compared with too weak, at 16% and 8% respectively.

Another question found only 12% favoured Australia living with COVID-19 “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”, compared with 44% apeice who favoured a near-zero policy and living with a few cases “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”. There were notable differences between the lockdown states and the others: 38% in New South Wales and 37% in Victoria favoured a near-zero strategy, compared with 50% in Queensland, 51% in South Australia and 59% in Western Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Also out today through the News Corp papers is a large-sample survey on COVID-19 conducted by YouGov, results from which can be viewed in The Australian here. This featured a number of questions on how things should be “when everyone has the opportunity to be fully vaccinated”, which 41% thought should mean an end to lockdowns, although a not inconsiderable 37% felt otherwise. Respondents from Western Australia were most pro-lockdown, those from New South Wales and Victoria least so. Younger respondents and parents of children in school were more likely to be pro-lockdown; those who did not wish to be vaccinated, accounting for 13% of the total sample, were most opposed.

The poll similarly found that 66% would eventually favour French-style vaccine passports for a range of public activities; 63% state borders being kept open only for the vaccinated; and 68% likewise with respect to overseas travel. Only 23% were opposed to the notion that employers should be able to demand their staff be vaccinated, compared with 69% who supported it for “frontline or public-facing jobs”, inclusive of 45% who thought it should be allowed across the board. Clear majorities were in favour of compulsory vaccinations for aged-care workers, nurses, school staff, public transport workers, take-away restaurant and food delivery workers, public servants and hospitality workers, and opinion was about evenly divided for construction workers and tradies.

Respondents were also given a choice between uncompromising anti-lockdown (“lockdowns should be ended immediately”) and pro-lockdown (“lockdowns must be part of Australia’s future until COVID-19 is completely eliminated”) positions and the much looser middle-ground option that “vaccination is the pathway to ending lockdowns”, which when you put it like that gets respective results of 14%, 22% and 64%. The survey was conducted by YouGov from August 20 to 25 from a sample of 3114.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Essential Research and YouGov COVID polling”

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  1. I contributed to that YouGov Covid poll and I’m damn sure I didn’t want to vote for increased ‘Freedumb’ at the expense of more death and destruction of lives, until we get an overwhelming majority (real) of the population vaccinated.

    Scott Morrison and Gladys Berejiklian can make all the plans they want, but they should know that it’s not what the majority want. I think the majority want grandma and grandpa and the kids at the table, for whatever family celebrations are coming up, rather than them not being there anymore or they are in hospital, unable to make it.

  2. This poll might find strong support for lockdowns, but Chris Uhlmann is not one of them, despite the NSW govt bungling the lockdown it was eventually forced kicking and screaming to implementing.

    One of the many disservices COVID-zero fetishists inflicted on the nation was the illusion of a solution. The online victory dance performed every time the COVID case count in a particular state was forced to zero reminded of George W. Bush hoisting the “Mission Accomplished” banner proclaiming an end to the war in Iraq. Frequent rumours of victory by COVID-tough premiers were as premature as they were immature.

    It has been evident since the beginning of this crisis that the lockdown cure is akin to an aggressive form of chemotherapy, killing healthy cells in the hunt for sick ones. It made sense in the early stage of this crisis, as we retreated to gauge the threat and prepare our defences, but in the long run lockdowns are a disaster.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/isolation-gave-mark-mcgowan-the-gift-of-time-he-would-be-wise-not-to-squander-it-20210831-p58ne4.html

    He doesn’t say how many Covid deaths would be acceptable to him if lockdowns were not an option; perhaps he’d find the hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths in the US an acceptable price for him and his social circle being able to attend restaurants and other public venues. Complaining about lockdowns is an easy game when you don’t have to explain away thousands of people dying because the spread wasn’t contained early or strong enough.

  3. This is an interesting finding:

    Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine generates more than twice as many antibodies as a similar shot made by Pfizer and BioNTech, according to a new real-world study from a major Belgium hospital system.

    The research, published Monday as a letter in the Journal of the American Medical Association, suggests that antibody levels among people who hadn’t been infected with COVID-19 before receiving two doses of the Moderna vaccine averaged 2,881 units per milliliter, compared with 1,108 units per milliliter in a similar-sized group who got the Pfizer-BioNTech shot.

    A total of 1,647 people participated in the study. A group of 688 people were vaccinated with Moderna’s mRNA-1273 shots, while 959 received two shots of Pfizer’s BNT162b2. All of them are health care workers at the Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg in Belgium, a tertiary care center.

    The notable difference in antibody levels might be explained by a higher amount of mRNA content in the Moderna vaccine and the longer interval between doses, according to the study. Each Moderna dose contains 100 micrograms of active mRNA ingredient, while the Pfizer-BioNTech shot contains only 30 micrograms of similar content. The Moderna injections were administered four weeks apart, compared with three weeks for Pfizer-BioNTech.

    https://observer.com/2021/08/moderna-covid-vaccine-twice-antibody-pfizer-biontech-study/

  4. It’s all well and good to advocate for the abstract concept of ending lockdowns, but it comes with a price tag of human lives that will be lost or severely affected as a result. So what price are the ‘End Lockdown’ fetishists prepared to pay?

    I want lockdowns to end as much as the next person but I don’t want the government to go off half-cocked and end them prematurely. I want us to have 80-90% Real of the population vaccinated first. I want grandma and grandpa at the family celebration table, not the family at a wake.

  5. Singapore has obviously been advertising their nearly expired Pfizer for sale or swap for newer vaccines later. The same as Poland.

    Obviously nobody wants vaccines go to waste – but it does raise the question as to the whereabouts of the gazillion doses that Morrison and Hunt announced would be arriving fresh out of the factory about now.

    *Yes when the lovely old Chinese lady jabbed me a few days ago with Phizer she explained to me in her broken English that the expiry was only 3 and half hours away, needless to say I said “Quick jab me then”

  6. It’s all well and good to advocate for the abstract concept of ending lockdowns, but it comes with a price tag of human lives that will be lost or severely affected as a result. So what price are the ‘End Lockdown’ fetishists prepared to pay?

    This is the thing, though. They never say what price they are prepared to pay, how many lives lost are acceptable to them.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The SMH reveals that almost one in five clinical staff in the NSW’s public health system has not received a single dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as the September 30 deadline for every worker to have one shot looms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/one-in-five-health-workers-yet-to-receive-first-dose-as-deadline-nears-20210831-p58nj0.html
    Steve Hamilton and Richard Holden declare that it’s time to consider booster jabs for healthcare workers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-time-to-consider-booster-jabs-for-healthcare-workers-20210831-p58nfs.html
    Morrison’s bold new ‘Living with Covid™’ pitch sounds breezy, but the devil is in the detail, writes Peter Lewis. In this amusing evaluation of SfM’s utterances and slogans, Lewis points out the feelings of Australians surveyed about our way forward hisd.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2021/aug/31/morrisons-bold-new-pitch-living-with-covidtm-sound-breezy-but-the-devil-is-in-the-detail
    A cynical Paul Bongiorno writes that truth serum is needed just as much as millions more doses of vaccine.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/08/31/paul-bongiorno-truth-serum-vaccine/
    Josh Butler says Scott Morrison has changed tune on reopening Australia as he focuses on the next election.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/09/01/scott-morrison-reopening-election/
    Faced with a Covid crisis, the NSW government has failed to lead when its people needed it the most, writes Tony Smith in an article headlined, “Gladys Berejiklian, deep in farce yesterday, threatening chaos today”.
    https://johnmenadue.com/premier-berejiklian-deep-in-farce-yesterday-threatening-chaos-today/
    Another day and the prospect of Australia “opening up” upon hitting the government’s magic vaccination numbers recedes a little further. The much-promoted national cabinet “plan” now seems to exist only in Scott Morrison’s rhetoric as state and territory leaders back away from it, says Michael Pascoe.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/08/31/vaccination-code-yellow-pascoe/
    The Australian tells us that Attorney-General Michaelia Cash has warned state governments that their constitutional power to shut borders will diminish once the nation hits an 80 per cent vaccination rate, as premiers with low Covid-19 infections defend the need to lock out interstate arrivals.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/michaelia-cash-states-border-powers-fall-at-80-per-cent-vaccination/news-story/ccef193b3c20e3d91283864a6446528f
    Ronald Mizen writes that businesses are demanding state leaders stick to the national plan out of lockdowns, as the economy’s V-shaped recovery is expected to stall or even reverse into a double-dip recession. (I don’t think these people have read the fine print of the national plan)>
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/stick-to-the-plan-on-reopening-demand-ceos-20210831-p58nly
    Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke tell us how some economists are warning that Australia could be in for a recession.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-r-word-record-recovery-but-economists-warn-of-recession-fears-20210831-p58nf9.html
    The problem with Scott Morrison is not that he uses his office to implement Christian values. The problem is that he doesn’t, opines Chris Sidoti.
    https://johnmenadue.com/mullah-morrison-and-his-christian-taliban/
    With the help of FoI, Daniel Hurst reveals the terms of reference Morrison set for General John Frewin’s engagement.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/01/letter-reveals-what-scott-morrison-told-john-frewen-when-he-gave-him-vaccine-role
    In the Liberal world empathy is as scarce as vaccines, writes Henry Johnston.
    https://theaimn.com/in-the-liberal-world-empathy-is-as-scarce-as-vaccines/
    Given the vaccine rollout debacle, Scott Morrison would struggle to convince voters he has handled the pandemic better than state premiers, says Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/it-is-not-obvious-that-morrison-would-win-a-public-relations-battle-with-the-states-over-pandemic-strategies/
    Australia’s immigration department is putting hundreds of foreign meatworkers on notice that they need to verify their visa status or leave. But many say they are the victims of unscrupulous practices, say Richard Baker and Wing Kuang in this report into a highly sensitive investigation into alleged visa fraud and wrongdoing by the people recruiting staff to work in the nation’s meat processing industry. They will continue tomorrow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/lies-bribes-and-prostitutes-the-recruitment-of-the-australian-meat-industry-s-foreign-workforce-20210826-p58m4h.html
    Daniel Andrews has abandoned the state’s COVID-zero strategy, as he embraces a soft lockdown plan to “modestly” and “cautiously” ease restrictions provided COVID-19 infections can be kept below a low case threshold.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/victoria-abandons-covid-zero-but-national-plan-in-doubt-20210831-p58ngs
    David Crowe and Rachel Clun tell us that Australians are being promised a shift within months to easier travel rules that allow home quarantine for those who cross state borders or return to the country as Scott Morrison steps up the case for relaxing lockdowns despite concerns from state leaders.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/home-quarantine-should-be-widespread-once-vaccination-target-is-hit-pm-says-20210831-p58njk.html
    Isolation gave Mark McGowan the gift of time. He would be wise not to squander it, writes Chris Uhlmann in this disparaging contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/isolation-gave-mark-mcgowan-the-gift-of-time-he-would-be-wise-not-to-squander-it-20210831-p58ne4.html
    School chaplains would gain more federal funding to help young students through the pandemic under a proposal from Coalition MPs to extend what Scott Morrison called a signature government program, but the idea worried others in the weekly meeting of the Coalition party room because of their long-standing concern that teenagers should receive counselling from qualified professionals rather than chaplains.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/calls-to-extend-school-chaplaincy-program-to-help-deal-with-pandemic-20210831-p58nlk.html
    Michelle Grattan points out that Morrison is yet to forge a personal relationship with Joe Biden as ANZUS turns seventy.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-yet-to-forge-personal-relationship-with-biden-as-anzus-turns-70-167054
    Ross Gittins writes that there is a debate we need to have if we want to make a better world after lockdown. He says it is the decline in competition between the few big businesses that dominate so many of our markets. The ACCC’s has come up with some suggestions by Frydenberg doesn’t want to know about it apparently.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/a-debate-we-need-to-have-if-we-want-to-make-a-better-world-after-lockdown-20210831-p58ng4.html
    Clive Palmer is launching another election campaign of misinformation and unwanted text messages, this time posing an even bigger danger, writes Andrew P Street.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/clive-palmers-campaign-will-have-a-body-count,15462
    Warren Entsch has submitted his report on danger to the Great Barrier Reef and has called for “more ambitious” action on climate change. He also backed the rejection of a coal project proposed by Clive Palmer, which would mine within 10 kilometres of the coast near Gladstone.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barrier-reef-s-future-depends-on-greater-climate-action-warren-entsch-20210831-p58nfq.html
    Asher Wolf wonders if the government learned nothing from the robodebt scandal as he examines the new welfare-related legislation the Australian government is trying to pass: the Social Security Legislation Amendment (Streamlined Participation Requirements and Other Measures) Bill 2021. He says it will, among other things, lead to the use of data from a questionnaire, for an algorithm to determine the employment pathway into which participants are streamed, which in turn decides their mutual obligations. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7406767/did-the-government-learn-nothing-from-the-robodebt-scandal/?cs=14264&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
    Senator Rex Patrick has won the right to access documents from the National Cabinet. Scott Morrison should never have tried to keep them secret, argues Spencer Zifcak.
    https://johnmenadue.com/when-is-a-cabinet-not-the-cabinet-when-the-prime-minister-says-that-it-isnt/
    The biggest threat to Victoria’s electricity supply this summer will be the risk of significant flooding at Yallourn power station, says Australia’s Energy Market Operator.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/power-station-flooding-a-summer-energy-risk-for-victoria-20210831-p58nl4.html
    A national tax on the extraction and sale of natural resources could be used to invest in a better education system, writes Emma Dawson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/uniform-resource-rent-tax-for-a-better-future,15464
    A new U.N. report has revealed almost half of the world’s children are seriously threatened by the rapidly deteriorating global climate, writes Reynard Loki.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/climate-crisis-putting-a-billion-children-at-extremely-high-risk,15461
    Dominic Powell reports that Gerry Harvey has refused to reveal why his company chose to repay $6 million in JobKeeper subsidies to the federal government, while warning that letting current COVID lockdowns drag on for too long could tip the economy into a recession.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/harvey-norman-repays-jobkeeper-after-record-profits-20210831-p58nei.html
    And the SMH editorial says that it’s time to name and shame companies that profited and kept JobKeeper. It believes the firms in question have an ethical obligation to return the money.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/time-to-name-and-shame-companies-that-profited-and-kept-jobkeeper-20210831-p58ng2.html
    Harvey Norman is doing very well, pity the rest of the economy, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/harvey-norman-is-doing-very-well-pity-the-rest-of-the-economy-20210831-p58nki
    After passing the unexpected but violent stress test posed by the pandemic, NBN Co executives might have felt that the hardest phase of the rollout was behind them. But a tricky new phase is just beginning, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/nbn-co-faces-a-challenging-road-ahead-20210831-p58nh3.html
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that Christian Porter has won a legal bid to stop Nine and News Corp using or reporting on secret parts of the ABC’s defence to his defamation claim which have been removed from a publicly accessible court file but were obtained by the media outlets’ lawyers.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/christian-porter-wins-legal-bid-to-stop-media-outlets-publishing-abc-defence-20210831-p58ndw.html
    A human is not a horse. So why is a livestock drug sweeping America, ask Arwa Mahdawi.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/31/a-human-is-not-a-horse-so-why-is-a-livestock-drug-sweeping-america-covid-ivermectin
    An ACT judge has dashed a paedophile former church minister’s hopes of using Cardinal George Pell’s acquittal to launch his own appeal, emphatically stating the case of Australia’s most senior Catholic did not change the law.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7410208/pell-did-not-change-the-law-church-paedophiles-appeal-bid-fails/?cs=14264&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

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  8. This is why Scott Morrison never wanted to put money into dedicated quarantine facilities:

    Australians are being promised a shift within months to easier travel rules that allow home quarantine for those who cross state borders or return to the country as Prime Minister Scott Morrison steps up the case for relaxing lockdowns despite concerns from state leaders.

    Mr Morrison urged states and territories to adopt home isolation as a “widespread” alternative to hotel quarantine once travel bans were removed when the vaccination rate climbed to 80 per cent of people aged 16 and over.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/home-quarantine-should-be-widespread-once-vaccination-target-is-hit-pm-says-20210831-p58njk.html

    And he’s enlisted Clive Palmer and other business types to heavy the state and territory leaders as well:

    Company chiefs will issue a joint letter, coordinated by the Business Council of Australia, on Wednesday to urge all political leaders to support the national plan or risk social as well as economic damage to the country.

    … “As vaccination rates increase, it will become necessary to open up society and live with the virus, in the same way that other countries have done.

    “Providing a light at the end of the tunnel will encourage more Australians to get vaccinated.”

    The letter follows a series of calls from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg for business to speak up in support of the national plan to make sure states and territories open their borders.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/home-quarantine-should-be-widespread-once-vaccination-target-is-hit-pm-says-20210831-p58njk.html

  9. Raf Epstein @Raf_Epstein

    Just under 120 cases today for the Covid number in Victoria.

    DoH already said deaths reported last night will also be included in today’s numbers

  10. Given the yawning gap between first doses and second doses in NSW (68% to 37% eligibles), it would be some quirk if we get to 70% double dose ahead of 80% first or 80% second ahead of 85% first.

    Assuming once 12s and over gives us 85% of the population and their vaccination follows adult numbers, 85% x 85% vaccination plus ongoing should be achievable.

    85% also seems about right on the hesitancy index – 18% NSW not sure including about 12% no.

    https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/ttpn/vaccination-report

  11. The scams continue…

    ‘A New Jersey woman who used the Instagram handle @AntiVaxMomma was charged in a conspiracy to sell hundreds of fake coronavirus vaccination cards over the social media platform, Manhattan prosecutors said on Tuesday.

    The allegations against the woman, Jasmine Clifford, 31, were unveiled in Manhattan criminal court. Prosecutors said that Ms. Clifford sold about 250 forged cards over Instagram.

    She also worked with another woman, Nadayza Barkley, 27, who is employed at a medical clinic in Patchogue, N.Y., to fraudulently enter at least 10 people into New York’s immunization database, prosecutors said.

    There was a warrant out for Ms. Clifford’s arrest, but she did not appear in the courtroom on Tuesday. She is expected to be charged with two felonies related to the scheme, in addition to the conspiracy charge, which is a misdemeanor.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/31/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine?type=styln-live-updates&label=coronavirus%20updates&index=0#a-new-jersey-woman-is-charged-with-selling-hundreds-of-fake-vaccine-cards

  12. I can understand Anthony Albanese’s relatively low approval rating, but 68% disapproval would appear to be quite savage. Putting the two figures together, there appears to be no room for ambivalence. A substantial majority of those polled really appear to dislike him. It would be interesting to know what it is about AA that engenders this visceral response.

    This sort of response to the its leader does not bode well for Labor given that the Liberals and the MSM are yet to wind up their “kill Bill” strategy in the lead up to the next election.

  13. It used to take 3 to 4 months to get to Australia by ship.

    The voyage wasn’t pleasant. Accommodation was cramped, the food was notoriously bad and there wasn’t much to do in the form of entertainment.

    If you took the average traveller from the 1850s and told them that they’d get to Australia within a day and then have to spend a month in quarantine, they’d have jumped at the chance.

  14. Chris Uhlmann is resorting to pretty crude (culture war) name calling in his columns now……which should be unacceptable for a regular columnist at the SMH. If you cant win an argument without name calling, perhaps its time to leave.
    And how exactly does Uhlmann expect our stretched hospitals to cope?

  15. Thanks BK

    The Australian tells us that Attorney-General Michaelia Cash has warned state governments that their constitutional power to shut borders will diminish once the nation hits an 80 per cent vaccination rate, as premiers with low Covid-19 infections defend the need to lock out interstate arrivals.

    I cant’ access Mordor. How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?

  16. “It would be interesting to know what it is about AA that engenders this visceral response.”…

    Oh, simple, he is the leader of the ALP…. Hence the media go hard, negatively focusing on him (attacking a person is much easier than attacking a program, or defending your policies). It would be exactly the same with any leader of the ALP (remember Rudd, Gillard, Shorten….). Moreover, when you calculate the 2PP you factor in the second preferences of left-wing parties such as the Greens, but with the leader vote, those same voters are far more happy to criticise him.

    Therefore, the leaders’ vote is pretty much irrelevant except perhaps for ScuMo. Given the protection he receives from the MSM, any trend down for him is a disaster, especially when the 2PP is also trending down…. Oh, BTW, ScuMo has been trending down in the last few months, far more sharply than Albo….

  17. “I cant’ access Mordor. How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?”…

    They aren’t… but of course that’s Cash, and in WA she is probably starting to worry about a massive electoral Bash…

  18. Alpo @ #23 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 8:10 am

    “I cant’ access Mordor. How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?”…

    They aren’t… but of course that’s Cash, and in WA she is probably starting to worry about a massive electoral Bash…

    Exactly. What bottom of the barrel scraping level how we reached when the likes of Cash are our AG.

  19. “orchbearersays:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 8:05 am
    Chris Uhlmann is resorting to pretty crude (culture war) name calling in his columns now……”

    Poor Chris, he is just showing that the right-wing of Australian politics are…. panicking… And yes, of course they should, it’s the end of the road for them. I mean, ScuMo will need far more than an ordinary “miracle” to win a 4th consecutive term…. Even the Voting Morons should be ready by now to get rid of him and his mob….

  20. Alpo

    The media hasn’t really focussed much on Albo at all, in any fashion, so the response Stuart describes can scarcely be attributed to any sustained media campaign against him.

    My own attitude to Albo hasn’t changed. I don’t have much respect for him, let alone liking.

    He is, however, preferable to the alternative, and a government led by him is preferable to the present one.

  21. zoomster, (bleeding obvious alert) the home quarantine fall back position presumes a home. So for all the other incoming – business, tourism – it’s business as usual for the hotel industry. Can’t let dedicated quarantine facilities meddle with that. The required vaccination status of incoming will be an interesting line in the sand.

  22. Itza –

    How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?

    I haven’t read Cash’s “output”, but I would guess that the judgment against Palmer’s case against WA was based around an assessment that the measures used by WA were in some way reasonable measures to protect public health.

    Hence if high vaccination rates are assessed as changing that balance such that measures that were reasonable without vaccines are no longer reasonable in the presence of high vaccination rates, an equivalent challenge might succeed where Palmer’s original one failed.

    IANAL etc etc.

  23. “Shellbellsays:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 7:46 am
    Given the yawning gap between first doses and second doses in NSW (68% to 37% eligibles), it would be some quirk if we get to 70% double dose ahead of 80% first or 80% second ahead of 85% first.”….

    But above all, focusing only on vaccination is just a political game. Serious people should focus not just on vaccination rate but also infection rate, hospitalisations and deaths. You don’t set a threshold vaccination rate and then forget about the rest, thus automatically opening up and returning to your pre-pandemic normal. For as long as infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths are high, you must restrain your opening up…. IF you are a responsible politician.

  24. Alpo @ #23 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 8:14 am

    “orchbearersays:
    Wednesday, September 1, 2021 at 8:05 am
    Chris Uhlmann is resorting to pretty crude (culture war) name calling in his columns now……”

    Poor Chris, he is just showing that the right-wing of Australian politics are…. panicking… And yes, of course they should, it’s the end of the road for them. I mean, ScuMo will need far more than an ordinary “miracle” to win a 4th consecutive term…. Even the Voting Morons should be ready by now to get rid of him and his mob….

    ‘Even the Voting Morons should be ready by now to get rid of him and his mob….’
    To the naked eye this seems bleeding obvious.
    Doesn’t it.
    You’d think.
    Right?

  25. “The most substantive thing Palmer has done is help getting Labor elected in Queenslsnd in 2015. It was very close and his jihad on Newman was a measurable help.”

    Nah Clive Palmer deserves no credit for that. That’s been an excuse used by Campbell Newman for his inexcusable choke where he trashed 34 seats and lost government in one term.

    Actually Palmer vote started to implode and his vote was spiralling during that period. I’m pretty sure senators Glenn Lazarus and Jacqui Lambie had quit the party by then. Lambie was giving Palmer party alot of bad press suggesting Australia needed to increase its army or would be invaded by China.

    Qld Labor ran a effective put the LNP last campaign where no credit needs to be given to Palmer.

  26. Daniel Bleakley
    @DanielBleakley
    ·
    39m
    $13 billion lost in Jobkeeper rorts will buy you a Tesla Gigafactory that can produce 2 million EVs per year and create thousands of clean tech jobs.

  27. Jackol

    “Itza –

    How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?

    I haven’t read Cash’s “output”, but I would guess that the judgment against Palmer’s case against WA was based around an assessment that the measures used by WA were in some way reasonable measures to protect public health.

    Hence if high vaccination rates are assessed as changing that balance such that measures that were reasonable without vaccines are no longer reasonable in the presence of high vaccination rates, an equivalent challenge might succeed where Palmer’s original one failed.

    IANAL etc etc.”

    This is correct. Because Palmer and WA could not agree on the health issue in the High Court argument, the High Court farmed that question off to a judge in the Federal Court who heard medical evidence and concluded that the WA border closure was supported medically. It was that which caused the Federal Govt to jump ship and cleared the way for WA’s easy victory in the HC.

  28. ItzaDream @ #21 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 6:06 am

    Thanks BK

    The Australian tells us that Attorney-General Michaelia Cash has warned state governments that their constitutional power to shut borders will diminish once the nation hits an 80 per cent vaccination rate, as premiers with low Covid-19 infections defend the need to lock out interstate arrivals.

    I cant’ access Mordor. How exactly are constitutional powers altered by vaccination rates?

    Yep, hasn’t the HC already ruled that the States have the power in a health emergency.

    So, if the medical advice suggests that it was appropriate to close the borders, it’s hard to see the HC ruling against that based on some arbitrary number.

  29. lizzie @ #26 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 6:14 am

    Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    ·
    31m
    ICYMI yesterday – this is quite something – Coalition MPs want more school chaplains to help children suffering mentally due to ‘alarmist’ climate activism

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/31/coalition-mps-want-more-school-chaplains-to-help-children-suffering-mentally-due-to-climate-activism

    Surely they can save money and just start an “Ask Jen” website.

  30. C@t, thanks for the Moderna link. I’ve been banging on about the prospects of Moderna for a while. That ‘paper’, which is a published letter to JAMA, doesn’t have peer reviewed kudos, but especially holds promise on effectiveness in reducing breakthrough infections and maybe new variants.

    Here’s the long read Mayo study it refers to.

    Overall, we find that in our study population from Minnesota, both vaccines strongly reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19, but individuals vaccinated with mRNA-1273 {Moderna} were about half as likely to experience breakthrough infections as individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 {Pfizer}

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

  31. Stuart @ #16 Wednesday, September 1st, 2021 – 7:49 am

    I can understand Anthony Albanese’s relatively low approval rating, but 68% disapproval would appear to be quite savage. Putting the two figures together, there appears to be no room for ambivalence. A substantial majority of those polled really appear to dislike him. It would be interesting to know what it is about AA that engenders this visceral response.

    This sort of response to the its leader does not bode well for Labor given that the Liberals and the MSM are yet to wind up their “kill Bill” strategy in the lead up to the next election.

    The voting public knows less than bugger all about Albanese.
    Not a clue.
    This is of course true for most pollies.
    They know nothing about his record in government, nothing about his background. Not a clue.
    They’ll stand in the polling booth still knowing nothing about him.
    Ultimately, for many ‘punters’ it comes down to a beauty contest between the two leaders.
    What will make them choose Albo over Scumo.

  32. mundo

    Well, why don’t they? It’s not as if he’s been a backbencher all of his political career.

    I could name a slew of pollies who aren’t the Leaders of their party but who have high public profiles.

  33. mundo and Stuart,

    jt1983 is correct – 68% is a typo. It is 36% disapproval for Albanese and dropping.

    But don’t let that stop you mundo 😉

  34. Gladys is running scared, hiding behind her daily parade of front line workers, took off like a startled rabbit when asked about Wilcannia yesterday, and is very foolish not to meet with LGA mayors imo, let alone get in a plane and front the wild wild west like she really cares. Mind you, what she”d see if she did would haunt her sleepless nights lying awake fretting over keeping her citizens safe.

    Ms Berejiklian was invited to meet with the 12 mayors of the locked-down local government areas across Sydney’s west and south-west to hear some of the issues residents were struggling with.

    But the Premier declined the request, with an email from her office, seen by the ABC, suggesting the mayors instead pursue a meeting with Local Government Minister Shelley Hancock.

    Mayor of Penrith City Council Karen McKeown said the refusal was offensive and disrespectful to the Western Sydney community, already reeling mentally and financially by the harsh lockdown.

    “I’m going to be shouting this from the rooftops,” she said.

    “I’m going to be standing up for our communities, you need to hear us, you need to pay attention, you cannot just cast us off and just disregard and ignore us.

    “You do that at your own peril.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-01/sydney-news-premier-wont-meet-with-hotspot-mayors/100422538

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