By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad

’Tis the night before a Queensland state by-election; we may not have seen the last of Nick Xenophon; Labor picks candidates for key Melbourne seats; plus further matters for those with a professional interest in our nation’s electoral affairs.

Election news:

• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.

• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.

• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.

From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):

• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.

• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.

Psephological arcana:

• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.

• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.

• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,674 comments on “By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad”

Comments Page 27 of 34
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  2. BW,

    Thanks for the link.

    Obviously, being a Libertarian is not just a matter of life or death.

    It’s far more important!

  3. Election now!
    The election to be referendum on the way in which Morrison has handled quarantine, vaccination and health messaging.

  5. michael @ #1283 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 3:17 pm

    The Australian reports – Bill Shorten has given an explicit signal to some of his Labor colleagues that he has hopes of returning to lead the Federal Labor Party and becoming prime minister one day, telling them : “I’m two leaders off coming back ” (Albo then Tanya then me)

    Jeez, The Lolstralian is desperate for a distraction from Scotty from Failed Marketing Campaigns. 😆

  8. Meanwhile this dickhead gets a big payday to make a trip here and back to the UK.

    Controversial British media personality Katie Hopkins is reportedly set to pocket a cool $200,000 after her recent whirlwind trip Down Under.

  9. Well done Smoko:

    ‘I don’t know’: Brad Hazzard says he’s in the dark about extra Pfizer doses for NSW

    NSW says it has been left in the dark about important Covid-19 vaccination information from the federal government.

  11. ‘A growing problem’: NSW records 163 new cases as Hazzard appeals for more Pfizer

    The state’s Health Minister renewed an appeal to other states for assistance in procuring doses of the Pfizer vaccine to control the outbreak.

  12. “ How come the marchers weren’t all given $1000 fines?”

    Insufficient instances of brown skin pigment to justify

  13. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:30 pm

    How come the marchers weren’t all given $1000 fines?’
    __________________________
    The police did not bring a biro?
    I assume that the police did not want to get into a whole series of violent arrests involving lots flying spittle. If so, sensible policing, IMO. It is what you do after the mob has dispersed that matters.

  14. According to numerous accounts provided to Inquirer from senior Labor colleagues in Shorten’s political orbit, he believes he can become Labor leader again one day and then realise his long-held dream to be prime minister.

    Shorten has always had an unshakeable sense of destiny that he would be prime minister, and Bob Hawke appears to have been his model. An extended conversation with Shorten in earlier days would often lead to him putting the question: “I think I could lead this country, what do you think?”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/bill-shorten-the-comeback-wannabe/news-story/52d08020669b9cf8c23994946fb8c4a0
    ___________
    2 Leaders off coming back? He’s already got rid of 2 leaders. Sounds doable for him. He will never surrender his ambitions to be PM. He’s already destroyed a Labor government to get there. Why not do another?

  17. The police follow these things up – they use face recognition, trawl through facebook, etc.

    More of the idiots than you might expect will end up paying for this.

    From memory, some people found themselves without jobs after their employers recognised their faces on the news.

  21. Cat
    “The Australian reports – Bill Shorten has given an explicit signal to some of his Labor colleagues that he has hopes of returning to lead the Federal Labor Party and becoming prime minister one day, telling them : “I’m two leaders off coming back ” (Albo then Tanya then me)”

    That’s great investigative reporting. I doubt even Shorten was aware of it.

  22. Cat

    I assume there are unvaccinated police personnel.

    Why should they suffer to send a message?

    We know these people are being fooled by media. We can’t criminalise journalism or free protest in this country.

    This is why Murdoch is such a cancer on our democracy.
    It’s why I have come to favour more diversity in media ownership.

    I am so pleased Biden is pursuing this. For our social media experience it’s going to count. For our legacy media anti monopoly is the way to go. We cannot let the Murdoch’s be the excuse for pursuing the whistle blowers or even “annoying “ political Youtube commentators.

    Edit: Lawsuits by people that get infected against media would be helpful.

  23. My fears exactly recon.

    Albo PM in 2022 and Littlefinger in 2023 – when he’s brought in to help a good government that had lost its way.

  26. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:40 pm

    My fears exactly recon.

    Albo PM in 2022 and Littlefinger in 2023 – when he’s brought in to help a good government that had lost its way.
    _______
    It will have lost it’s way because Shorten will be constantly leaking, which is exactly what he did to Rudd.

  28. ‘Confessions says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:39 pm

    boerwar @ #1305 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 3:30 pm

    Confessions
    Let’s hope it costs him long Covid.

    Except he’ll spread it to others so it won’t just be him that pays the price.’
    _______________________________
    Like his family, workmates and recreational friends? That would be a tragedy.

  29. Recon says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:44 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:40 pm

    My fears exactly recon.

    Albo PM in 2022 and Littlefinger in 2023 – when he’s brought in to help a good government that had lost its way.
    _______
    It will have lost it’s way because Shorten will be constantly leaking, which is exactly what he did to Rudd.
    _______
    When the time comes we can be sure the usual PB peanut gallery – will fall into line and endorse the knifing.

    Littlefinger in 2023 – he’s tanned, ready and rested!

  30. boerwar says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:30 pm

    Confessions
    Let’s hope it costs him long Covid.
    _________
    Well. I wouldn’t wish Long Covid on anyone, even Bill Shorten.

  31. The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation is now advising everyone over 18 in Sydney to strongly consider any available vaccine, including AstraZeneca.

    This is a significant pivot in the formal advice, given the prior reluctance to recommend AstraZeneca to anyone younger than 60, but reflects the changing risk profile of the Delta outbreak in Sydney.

  34. Interesting the same peeps who objected to police stopping the lynch mob at Nicolle Flint’s offices, heartily endorse violent police action against a different flavour of nutter in today’s Sydney protests.

  35. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:47 pm

    Littlefinger in 2023 – he’s tanned, ready and rested!
    _________
    Needs to sort out the manboobs though.


  36. guytaur says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:14 pm
    ….
    I am not a fan of the authoritarian after the event stoke up more resentment with fines and jail time suggestions.

    So why do you think we no longer have this nonsense in Victoria.


  37. Recon says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:50 pm

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:47 pm

    Littlefinger in 2023 – he’s tanned, ready and rested!
    _________
    Needs to sort out the manboobs though.

    You really are a sad sad pair.

  38. Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:40 pm
    My fears exactly recon.

    Albo PM in 2022 and Littlefinger in 2023 – when he’s brought in to help a good government that had lost its way.
    ________________
    It will be earlier than that.
    I give Albo 3 months max before Shorten makes his move.

  40. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:49 pm

    Illegal gatherings, protesting without permits, protesting during lockdown, ignoring social distancing laws, ignoring mandatory masks – can I go on ?

  42. Recon says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:50 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:47 pm

    Littlefinger in 2023 – he’s tanned, ready and rested!
    _________
    Needs to sort out the manboobs though.
    __________
    Private training sessions with his good friend JT? Should be private – the public awkward walk-run routine didn’t work too well for him.

  43. michael from Menzies House, L’arse and naff naff holding their own bukake party over an imagined gathering storm in 2023 whilst the country disintegrates today.

  44. poroti says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:52 pm

    They’re doooomed in the USA of A, the movie Idiocracy was right
    ______________
    That movie bombed but I thought it was delightfully amusing. Particularly the lawyer. “I like money” lol.

  48. Holdenhillbilly at 3:47 pm
    The changing risk profile is due to the Coalition clots proving to be a bigger danger to life than the blood clots.

  50. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:51 pm
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:40 pm
    My fears exactly recon.

    Albo PM in 2022 and Littlefinger in 2023 – when he’s brought in to help a good government that had lost its way.
    ________________
    It will be earlier than that.
    I give Albo 3 months max before Shorten makes his move.
    ________________
    A political fragging would be the outcome – the timing not so clear, still the press gallery is usually very biddable.

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