By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad

’Tis the night before a Queensland state by-election; we may not have seen the last of Nick Xenophon; Labor picks candidates for key Melbourne seats; plus further matters for those with a professional interest in our nation’s electoral affairs.

Election news:

• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.

• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.

• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.

From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):

• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.

• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.

Psephological arcana:

• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.

• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.

• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,674 comments on “By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad”

Comments Page 1 of 34
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  1. Jaeger
    Regarding the map you posted last thread

    Is that Canberra or the ‘green shoots’ Gladys keeps telling us about ?

  2. Is that Canberra or the ‘green shoots’ Gladys keeps telling us about ?

    Can’t be – the ACT has nothing to do with Gladys’s NSW.

  6. This is the only Wayne whose opinion I respect:

    Wayne Swan may no longer be in Parliament, but that hasn’t stopped the former federal treasurer from firing a broadside at the Morrison government on breakfast television earlier this morning.

    Mr Swan was appearing on Nine’s Today show to talk about the Prime Minister’s apology over the vaccine rollout. Here’s what he had to say:

    “Essentially, the performance yesterday was just dreadful. People said that he issued an apology. He
    didn’t. It was a half apology that was forced. It wasn’t sincere, and it didn’t go to the core of the problem.

    “If he was going to go out and say, ‘Let’s wipe the slate clean, let’s look at what’s gone wrong here,’ which is the decisions they [the Government] have taken not to purchase the correct volumes and types of vaccines, then people might take him seriously.

    “But every day he goes out, he’s getting a gold medal for blame shifting.”

    Go Wayne!

  9. From The Guardian Australia:

    Late last night the New South Wales health department announced it had found fragments of Covid-19 in Byron Bay’s wastewater in the far north.

    The sewage treatment plant serves about 19,000 people in Byron Bay, Wategos, Suffolk Park, Sunrise, and Broken Head. There are no known cases in the Byron region, and NSW Health called the finding “of great concern”.

  10. Sulphur-crested cockatoos learn to open wheelie bins in Sydney – video

    Sulphur-crested cockatoos are learning to pry open bins, with researchers finding the new skill has caught on in 44 Sydney suburbs in just two years. With help from the public, Australian and German ecologists have documented cockatoos learning the bin-diving behaviour through social interactions. The research, published in the journal Science, also found differences in the cockatoos’ bin-opening technique between different suburbs, arising from ‘local subcultures’.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2021/jul/23/sulphur-crested-cockatoos-learn-to-open-wheelie-bins-in-sydney-video

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    John Hewson argues that Scott Morrison is fast losing control of the narrative.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7351832/scott-morrison-is-fast-losing-control-of-the-narrative-hewsons-view/?cs=14246
    And Michelle Grattan, in a long discourse, says Morrison is a leader with his back against the wall, lashing out at the wrong place.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-23/scott-morrison-atagi-vaccine-advice-astrazeneca/100316092
    David Crowe looks at the strife Morrison has been getting into with respect to medical advice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-tackles-medical-advice-at-heart-of-vaccine-program-20210722-p58c2k.html
    Phil Coorey reckons Morrison’s salvation is also the nation’s.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-s-salvation-is-tied-to-scott-morrison-s-20210722-p58bv7
    Rob Harris and Nick Bonyhady untangle Morrison’s press conference from yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-sorry-former-cabinet-minister-apologises-for-sluggish-vaccine-rollout-20210722-p58bzu.html
    Gladys Berejiklian insists NSW has not lost control of the virus but Sydney looks likely to be stuck in hard lockdown for months and the federal government will have to find more money to help, says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/sydney-could-be-in-lockdown-for-months-20210722-p58c3u
    David Crowe and Katina Curtis report that health experts say poor communication of scientific advice on COVID-19 vaccines has undermined AstraZeneca while the nation’s peak medical group wants more transparency around decisions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doctors-seek-better-communication-more-transparency-from-expert-vaccine-group-20210722-p58byd.html
    The Australian’s Patrick Commins writes that failure to tame Sydney’s Covid-19 outbreak over the coming week could mean the city’s lockdown remains a “permanent feature” that will end only when the large majority of the population is fully vaccinated later this year.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/covid19-lockdown-could-become-permanent-economist-warns/news-story/1f7841aea0c2c84a726c1332b5592102
    Morrison has finally embraced ‘informed consent’ for AstraZeneca, what took him so long to take Atagi’s advice, asks Paul Karp. He says that, despite that black and white view, the prime minister has finally found there’s more nuance to the question – and it was there in the medical advice all along.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/22/morrison-has-finally-embraced-informed-consent-for-astrazeneca-what-took-him-so-long-to-take-atagis-advice
    Raina McIntyre tells us why the Delta variant makes contact tracing so much harder.
    https://theconversation.com/is-delta-defeating-us-heres-why-the-variant-makes-contact-tracing-so-much-harder-164780
    Gladys Berejiklian has made her strongest plea on COVID-19 vaccination, urging under 40s to consider getting AstraZeneca as Sydney prepares for case numbers to rise despite being in a hard lockdown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/premier-s-plea-consider-astrazeneca-if-you-are-under-40-20210722-p58c3f.html
    Watching New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian and her “gold standard” pandemic management unravel before our eyes is a bittersweet moment for many people — Victorians, in particular, writes Michelle Pini.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/liberal-party-pandemic-management-exemplary–thanks-gladys,15322
    The New South Wales government has taken up just 145,000 of the almost 1 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine allocated to it by the commonwealth, leaving vaccinations to either stockpile or be directed overseas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/22/nsw-government-has-only-used-15-of-its-allocation-of-the-astrazeneca-vaccine
    We’re losing the vaccination race because of bungling, not bad luck, declares economics professor, Richard Holden.
    https://theconversation.com/were-losing-the-vaccination-race-because-of-bungling-not-bad-luck-164853
    The immediate benefit of a single AZ dose is well understood in the current wave of the delta variant. What is not well understood is a way to reduce the risk in all age groups, further tipping the benefit/risk ratio towards justified, rapid use of every available AZ dose, explains clinical immunologist, Graeme Stewart.
    https://johnmenadue.com/graeme-stewart-we-can-help-to-restore-confidence-in-the-az-vaccine/
    Michael Pascoe describes a quick test for how genuine employers are about staff and confidence.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/07/23/michael-pascoe-employers-test-staff-confidence/
    Andrew Charlton explains how Australians are adapting to the isolation economy – and spending up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/living-la-vida-lockdown-how-australians-are-adapting-to-the-isolation-economy-and-spending-up-20210722-p58bvr.html
    Workers and students who have lost paid work in NSW due to the lockdown are missing out on COVID disaster payments because they already receive payments like youth allowance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-people-missing-out-on-covid-19-disaster-recovery-payments-20210722-p58c1r.html
    Greg Baum justifiably piles into John Coates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-people-missing-out-on-covid-19-disaster-recovery-payments-20210722-p58c1r.html
    Peter Hannam tells us that scientists who once studied climate change as a future threat are now grappling with the immediacy of violently altered weather patterns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-the-dynamics-of-a-heating-planet-are-driving-extreme-weather-20210722-p58c1c.html
    Despite being deemed an unacceptable “flight risk”, the recently convicted former Labor ministers Ian Macdonald and Eddie Obeid, along with Obeid’s son, Moses, have effectively been given home detention until their sentencing in September, writes Kate McClymont. They will be subject to spot checks between 10pm and 5am to make sure they are in their respective homes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/eddie-obeid-son-moses-and-ian-macdonald-get-bail-despite-flight-risk-concerns-20210722-p58c0t.html
    The Chairman of AGL Energy has admitted that the company is failing to meet emissions targets as share value continues to plummet, writes David Ritter.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/agl-keeps-coal-burning-as-business-suffers,15324
    The sudden, global move to tax carbon puts billions of Australian coal and gas exports at risk, indeed this country’s largest sources of income. Hard on the heels of the EU’s carbon border tax declaration, the US declared a carbon border scheme. Others are poised to follow. Callum Foote and Michael West report on the immense risk to Australia’s largest source of income.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/spread-of-carbon-borders-leaves-aus-government-nowhere-to-hide/
    While the Law Council of Australia strongly supports the intent of the Family Law Amendment (Federal Family Violence Orders) Bill 2021, there are several issues within the legislation that need clarification, explains the AIMN.
    https://theaimn.com/law-council-calls-for-more-clarity-about-proposed-family-violence-regimes/
    Colin Kruger writes that finance house Greensill Capital’s Australian arm traded while insolvent, according to a report by the company’s liquidators. It means directors, including company founder Lex Greensill, may be liable for debts incurred during this period. What a clusterf**k!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/greensill-traded-while-insolvent-say-liquidators-20210722-p58c4n.html
    The Home Affairs Department will be forced to listen to staff concerns when introducing new policies after losing its second battle against the workplace umpire over a sleeveless top ban it introduced earlier this year.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7352645/home-affairs-loses-appeal-over-sleeveless-top-ban/?cs=14264
    The US military’s top officer has offered a glum assessment of the security situation in Afghanistan, saying the Taliban had seized “strategic momentum” over Afghan military forces who were falling back to protect important cities, including the capital Kabul.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/top-us-general-admits-complete-taliban-takeover-looms-in-afghanistan-20210722-p58c2q.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Simon Letch

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding




    Mark David

    Andrew Dyson

    Glen Le Lievre

    John Shakespeare


    Johannes Leak

    From the US








  15. A huge overhaul to Sydney’s coronavirus restrictions could see the city’s south-west plunged into an even harder lockdown, while areas with few new cases may see rules relaxed.

    The plan threatens to tear the city apart, after mask-less walkers were seen enjoying winter sunshine on the eastern beaches while those in the Covid-ravaged south-west are under tight police surveillance.

    Some locals in the hotspot areas, Fairfield, Liverpool and Canterbury-Bankstown, have been accused by government sources of lying about their whereabouts when called by contact tracers and continuing to work by doing cash-in-hand jobs.

    Of the 124 new cases on Thursday, 54 lived in the south-west while 40 were from western Sydney. with 18 from the city and eight from the south-east.

    The huge discrepancy in local infections has lead some officials to consider placing the three south-west LGAs into a heightened lockdown, sources say, which could see more police patrols or the further tightening of travel rules.

  17. Thanks BK. That’s a good summary by Grattan; the constant flip-flopping by Morrison on ATAGI is just eroding public confidence in the independent body and colouring it with a political lens of the govt of the day. Not good.

  18. Morning all

    Thank you BK

    And from previous thread
    Sorry Gareth about your friend
    The AZ vaccine hesitancy concerns for those under 50 in particular are not unfounded.

  21. Jaeger @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 7:31 am

    Sulphur-crested cockatoos learn to open wheelie bins in Sydney – video

    Sulphur-crested cockatoos are learning to pry open bins, with researchers finding the new skill has caught on in 44 Sydney suburbs in just two years. With help from the public, Australian and German ecologists have documented cockatoos learning the bin-diving behaviour through social interactions. The research, published in the journal Science, also found differences in the cockatoos’ bin-opening technique between different suburbs, arising from ‘local subcultures’.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2021/jul/23/sulphur-crested-cockatoos-learn-to-open-wheelie-bins-in-sydney-video

    They do it up here as well. Though some of them are too well fed to bother. 😉

  24. Victoria @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 7:53 am

    Morning all

    Thank you BK

    And from previous thread
    Sorry Gareth about your friend
    The AZ vaccine hesitancy concerns for those under 50 in particular are not unfounded.

    +1

    Politicians pushing people into things just don’t get that the ones that are affected are real and many, in the prime of their lives.

  25. …I’ll add that Susan Benedyka, a local businesswoman, has expressed her intention to run for the Senate as a ‘Voices’ candidate (although, given their non-party status, she’ll be ungrouped).

  26. The NFL, which has already taken steps to strongly encourage its players to get vaccinated against Covid-19, is ramping up the pressure at the team level.

    The league has sent a memo to its 32 clubs that if games are forced to be postponed due to a positive Covid test, they will go down as forfeits if they can’t be rescheduled. That will not only hit teams’ win-loss record, but also wipe out a paycheck and deny the home team’s ability to derive revenue from hosting the game.

    NFL Network reporter Tom Pelissero obtained the memo and tweeted it in full. He said the league was going to convene a call with team owners this evening.

    “These operating principles are designed to allow us to play a full season in a safe and responsible way,” Commissioner Roger Goodell wrote, “and address possible competitive or financial issues fairly. While there is no question that health conditions have improved from last year, we cannot be complacent or simply assume that we will be able to play without interruption.”

  27. Sarah Martin
    @msmarto
    ·
    55m
    Disappointing that the fed Govt would “drop” the news that TGA set to approve Pfizer for kids to the Herald Sun.
    Surely this sort of information should be democratised in the middle of a pandemic

  28. Russia Averts Possible Disaster as New Space Station Module Finally Reaches Proper Orbit

    Russia’s new space station module, dubbed Nauka, is currently en route to the ISS, but the spacecraft initially failed to complete its first orbit-raising burn, leading to concerns that it might not complete the trip. Thankfully, the Nauka team on Earth was able to perform a course correction, and the module is now in the proper orbit to continue its journey.

    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/07/russia-averts-possible-disaster-as-new-space-station-module-finally-reaches-proper-orbit/

  29. The ABC has officially left the reservation, the front page piece of the young woman who had a stroke after taking AstraZeneca vaccine shows that they have no idea of the problem facing Australia. People talk of Murdoch having an agenda but the ABC certainly has as well and they are willing to risk lives to do it. This story would have been debated with editorial staff being splashed across its internet front page and they decided to go with it. Every thinking person in Australia already knows the risks probably even knows the statistics yet the ABC said lets scare Australians some more. Oh and a opinion piece as well. We are doomed if this gets out of hand people will die instead of taking
    AstraZeneca. Shameful.

  31. This is very good news for people who send their children to expensive private schools. They will know how to get their hands on the rare as hens’ teeth supplies of Pfizer.

    National News Live (SMH)
    TGA has approved Pfizer for 12 to 15-year-olds, Health Minister says
    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has just confirmed that the Therapeutic Goods Administration has approved the Pfizer vaccine for 12 to 15-year-olds overnight.

  32. He is the go to guy for info on covid numbers.

    Rafael Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein
    ·
    1h
    Hearing Victoria’s Covid number today is in the low teens. All linked.

  33. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:19 am

    Sulpher crested cockatoos are the wombats of the sky’
    __________________________________
    Classic deflection.
    The core truth here is that wombats are the wombats of the earth.

  34. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 7:48 am
    Thanks BK. That’s a good summary by Grattan; the constant flip-flopping by Morrison on ATAGI is just eroding public confidence in the independent body and colouring it with a political lens of the govt of the day. Not good.
    ”

    Like what Trump did to CDC.

  35. ATAGI.
    There is nothing or nobody that Morrison will not attempt to bend to his insatiable lust for power.
    EVERY.

  36. Steelydan,

    You’ve got a hide. One person and one person specifically has been politicising the pandemic and he resides in the Lodge.

    Get off you high horse.

  37. Morrison was not ‘flip flopping’ on Atagi. He was busily cultivating an impression that somehow they were one of the causes of his vaccination FAIL. It was those pesky unreasonable Atagi people wot held back the “Father of the Nation” otherwise …………..

  38. Meteorologist Eric Holthaus shared a radar image of an incoming typhoon to the south, which he warned could hit the Japanese capital by the end of the weekend.

    The storm is yet to be fully formed, making trajectory predictions extremely difficult for storm trackers. Any potential impact to the Tokyo Olympics is still five days away, with the full impact on the proceedings almost impossible to predict for meteorologists.

  40. ”
    lizziesays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:14 am
    Sarah Martin
    @msmarto
    ·
    55m
    Disappointing that the fed Govt would “drop” the news that TGA set to approve Pfizer for kids to the Herald Sun.
    Surely this sort of information should be democratised in the middle of a pandemic
    ”
    Ghunt “declined” to be interviewed on public broadcaster ABC Breakfast as per Michael Rowland and Morrison was yesterday unavailable for 7:30 report. And it appears Bridget McKenzie is sent instead.
    So you can see the pattern there.

  41. Good Morning

    @annabelcrabbe tweets

    If you need to conduct a round of briefings on Day 2 to explain why the press conference you did on Day 1 was such a work of genius, you are… how can I put this?
    Not a genius.

  42. Jaeger, poroti,

    Some future dystopian Qld government will use that map as their equivalent of China’s 5-dash line!

  43. I know I’m repeating myself, but I’m constantly annoyed by “these are record numbers” said by politicians who want to pretend they’ve achieved something. Pollbludgers will all understand what an empty statement it is.

  44. ”
    Steelydansays:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:17 am
    The ABC has officially left the reservation,
    ”

    That is a racist comment.

  45. So Morrison and the Sick Hunt have approved Pfizer for high school kids so they won’t be embarrassed anymore when Private School students jump the queue?

  46. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:36 am

    Jaeger, poroti,

    Some future dystopian Qld government will use that map as their equivalent of China’s 5-dash line!’
    ________________________________________________
    ACT = Taiwan?

  47. lizzie @ #NaN Friday, July 23rd, 2021 – 8:37 am

    I know I’m repeating myself, but I’m constantly annoyed by “these are record numbers” said by politicians who want to pretend they’ve achieved something. Pollbludgers will all understand what an empty statement it is.

    Lies, Liberal lies and damned numbers.

  48. Boerwar

    Morrison’s strategy from the start was obvious.

    He was more than happy for the states to manage quarantine in their own states.

    Cos any outbreaks was their responsibility.
    Then he could have swipes at Labor states if they didnt do so well.

    If it were to occur in liberal states, he would give reassuring words and support that they are doing the best they can under difficult circumstances.

    Whenever Labor states asked for purpose built quarantine, Morrison referred back to how well NSW managed it and therefore not needed.

    And it served him well until now.

    He and his govt thought they were too clever by half re the vaccine procurement.

    And NSW who believed in their own bullshit about gold standard and all that , which was promulgated by Morrison and co., has come to bite them hard in the arse.

  50. ‘Steve777 says:
    Friday, July 23, 2021 at 8:35 am

    Isn’t The Informed Medical Options Party, the Anti Vaxxers?’
    _______________________________________
    The Kami Kaze Party.

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