Resolve Strategic: Coalition 43, Labor 28, Greens 12 in NSW

A new poll brings an encouraging set of numbers for the Berejiklian government, all things considered.

The Sydney Morning Herald today brings us the bi-monthly reading of state voting intention in New South Wales from Resolve Strategic, which combines results for the state from its two monthly national surveys to produce a sample of 1100. Keeping in mind that this means half the poll was conducted before the recent COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown, the results suggest support for the Berejiklian government is holding up: its primary vote is down only one point to 43%, while Labor and the Greens are both unchanged on 28% and 12% respectively. The poll has Shooters Fishers and Farmers down from 4% and 1%, with most of the slack taken up by independents and others, although this may not be all that meaningful.

Despite the fact that Labor has traded in Jodi McKay for Chris Minns since the last poll, Gladys Berejiklian’s lead as preferred premier is all but unchanged at 55-16, compared with 57-17 against McKay two months ago. The 550 respondents of last week’s survey were asked various questions of the rollout, which found 56% believed Sydney had been too slow to go into lockdown, but that 46% nonetheless agreed or strongly agreed that the outbreak had been well handled.

The two survey periods for the poll were June 8 to 12 and July 13 to 17, i.e. last Tuesday to Saturday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

28 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 43, Labor 28, Greens 12 in NSW”

  1. Victor Dominello the Liberal Party leader in waiting will be keeping his powder dry , until next year before he strikes against Gladys

  2. Grim numbers for Labor, especially with optional preferential voting. Maybe a long lockdown will take some shine off Gladys, but the polls suggest NSW voters blame Morrison for their problems rather than Gladys. In my demographic of middle-aged to elderly people in Labor’s former heartland of the western suburbs, she is regarded as a saint. Her scandalous conduct with her corrupt secret lover Daryl Maguire hasn’t hurt her one little bit, nor has blatant rorting of government spending to favour Liberal electorates or cock-ups of projects like the eastern suburbs light rail. Her media performances package her as a moderate, likeable, competent person, rather like the Qld. premier. I’m wondering if there is any way to quantify the likeability of a politician, and if a high likeability rating correlates with electoral success, regardless of other factors? I think that’s what we are seeing here with Gladys.

  3. From Murdoch’s DT – seems he has taken his cue from Morrison in blaming the medical professionals.

    For those like me who don’t know about Ayres – he is NSW Minister for Jobs, Investment, Tourism and Western Sydney

    MP’s tirade at Australia’s vaccine advisory body

    Stuart Ayres has criticised the nation’s peak vaccine advisory body, accusing them of trying “fit an airbag after a car crash”.

  4. citizensays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 8:20 am
    From Murdoch’s DT – seems he has taken his cue from Morrison in blaming the medical professionals.

    For those like me who don’t know about Ayres – he is NSW Minister for Jobs, Investment, Tourism and Western Sydney

    MP’s tirade at Australia’s vaccine advisory body

    Stuart Ayres has criticised the nation’s peak vaccine advisory body, accusing them of trying “fit an airbag after a car crash”.

    Stuart Ayres is also the MP of Penrith and husband of Marise Payne, our Foreign Affairs minister. Penrith is one of the 3 bellweather seats that NSW Labor need to win to win NSW elections.


  5. Watson Watchsays:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 8:24 am
    Parrmatta Lib,
    You sound like Gladys the incompetent’s PR man. Is your name Chris Minns?

    I do not disagree with Paramatta Moderate analysis. And the elections are 2 years away.
    Also look at the time period of polling “The two survey periods for the poll were June 8 to 12 and July 13 to 17, i.e. last Tuesday to Saturday.”
    So the frustration of people of Sydney are not reflected yet

  6. NSW Labor is, quite rightly, paying for allowing itself to become extremely corrupt. It is easier to become corrupt than to dig yourself out of corruption.

  7. Ven,
    The incompetence and corruption has been going on for 10 years!
    The people of NSW (excluding Liberal Party members) are well past frustrated!

  8. Hello Watson. I certainly wouldn’t aspire to be Chris Minns, he’s got a tough job. He seems to be much less inclined to criticise Gladys at every opportunity relative to his predecessor, and has even praised the government for some measures, so it looks like he’s trying different tactics to Jodi. Not that he’s getting any airtime during the current crisis.

    I think the LNP have a couple of other assets in NSW. One is the lingering stench of Eddie Obied and company. The other is that they have built a lot of highly visible infrastructure. There are legitimate criticisms of a lot of this infrastructure-using tollways to move around the city is outrageously expensive, and a lot of the light rail projects have just replaced heavy rail, but people can see they are getting things built. But I suspect a big liability for them could be Barilaro, the state level version of Barnaby. It would be fascinating to see a split of state voting intention between city and rural NSW.

    Btw, I’m no Liberal, they are always last on my ballot paper. But I believe it’s wishful thinking to believe the LNP are in trouble in NSW.

  9. Its all fine – Earlwood and C@t are in the war room strategising the ALP comeback under Minns. Earlwood still hasn’t got his head around then ’19 outcome, but its all good under Minns. Nothing to see here move on. I’m sure 28% of the primary on optional pref will yield terrific results.
    Maybe he’s helping Eddie, Macca and Moses with their appeal?

    Or Kalia with her online Aldi shopping?

    The stench of NSW ALP remains like a bag of prawns left outside on a hot sticky day.

  10. Since the Eddie Obeid days it has been a case of hold your nose and look the other way before voting ALP in NSW. For old diehards like me it has been a very, very trying time.

    Now they’ve pulled out that sod from Newcastle again for airing. Fortunately for us in the North Coast we have some options with the Greens. It must be truly challenging for left leaning voters in other parts of the state

  11. Parramatta Lib,
    Thanks for the laugh.

    Sounds like your man, Eddie Obeid, is still held in high regard in the NSW Liberal Party.
    Eddie’s business partner at Australian Water Holdings Pty Ltd, is now Ambassador to the United States.
    A Scott Morrison appointment?

    The lingering stench sounds like Eau de NSW Liberal.

  12. Hey Watson

    Eddies in the big house.
    Arthur’s in Washington.
    I’d reckon that kinda spells out the fundamental difference between them. But don’t worry Earliwood’s running Eddies appeal. What could go wrong!!

  13. Maybe a few more NSW voters will wake up to the NSW Coalition`s poor handling of the current COVID outbreak when Victoria comes out of their lockdown much sooner, while their lockdown drags on and on.

  14. mod lib,
    I agree with you. Eddie strayed from the Liberal Party and was punished.
    That’s the way organised crime works. Those that stray from the crime family are punished, while those that stay are looked after by ‘the family’.

  15. I blame Scott Morrison for this mess, He put all his eggs in one basket with the AstraZeneca, The problem is its only about 65% effective, and Pfizer is about 90%

  16. watto – good to know that’s the view of around 28% of the population as per the poll. welcome to the minority – but you’ll find just about all of them on the echo chamber.

  17. I just heard a public health expert on RN. He is of the opinion that we have reached a situation in NSW where the Covid-19 outbreak is just about out of control. Yet here we are, with the government that has led us down this path registering a huge lead in this opinion poll.

  18. mod lib,
    Most people take little interest in politics. To have 28% of the population telling pollsters that the state government is corrupt must be some kind of record.
    I wonder if there was any corruption polling Joh’s Queensland. If there was, I doubt that Joh would have achieved 28% until the Fitzgerald Royal Commission.

  19. This poll pretty much sums up how useless NSW Labor is. The Libs are presiding over a rolling disaster yet they still can’t lay a glove on them. They can’t even crack 30%!

    How long is it going to take before Labor and their supporters get the message that their NSW branch is utterly toxic and needs a complete clean out? How long will they continue to blindly march over the edge of the cliff to the beat of the Right Faction? There doesn’t seem to be an end in sight, as here they are lining up to attempt to put a positive spin on fruits of their ineptitude.

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