By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad

’Tis the night before a Queensland state by-election; we may not have seen the last of Nick Xenophon; Labor picks candidates for key Melbourne seats; plus further matters for those with a professional interest in our nation’s electoral affairs.

Election news:

• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.

• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.

• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.

From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):

• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.

• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.

Psephological arcana:

• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.

• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.

• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,674 comments on “By-elections of the XXXIV Olympiad”

Comments Page 28 of 34
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  1. In a page where someone hoped that a person in Sydney should suffer from Long Covid, you find our jesting about Shortens’ ambitions the more offensive?

  2. Can we talk about something serious, like where is Wally Wallpaper today with record cases in Sydney, National Cabinet in tatters and thousands on the streets in Sydney breaking the ghetto-isation of their communities.

    Not showing any national leadership, that’s for sure

  3. Recon
    I loved the movie. Perhaps Americans were reluctant to watch it as it was uncomfortably close to what they saw happening in real life. More doco than fantasy 🙂

  5. Good response by my local member.

    @tanya_plibersek tweets

    No one likes lockdowns, but thanks to all the people who DIDN’T go to the rallies today. Freedom? To get Covid-19? To give it to your grandma?

  7. poroti says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 3:57 pm

    Recon
    I loved the movie. Perhaps Americans were reluctant to watch it as it was uncomfortably close to what they saw happening in real life. More doco than fantasy
    __________
    Very true! Perhaps too close to home. Particularly Trump becoming President. Personally, I preferred the movie President, Macho Man Comancho, at least he had a good heart! Even if he did put Gatorade on the crops.

  9. And the truth is?

    Bill Shorten can’t even get his chosen candidates up in the Victorian pre-selections for federal seats in order to increase his numbers should he challenge again in 2023 (and what’s so important about 2023 in the scheme of things? It’s only a year after the next federal election). So to fantasise some Lazarus like resurrection for the guy is just laughable.

    Which is no wonder why the PB Clown Crew have latched onto it like a drowning man to a piece of flotsam bobbing in the water.

  10. Having some insight into the feelings of 2nd and 3rd generation people of migrant background in Western Sydney, they are incensed – someone mentioned white hot anger earlier – at the Gladys Ghettoes.

    Will have more to say later on this.

  11. sprocket_
    Also sfa ‘State leadership’ , a bit of a shit hits the fans day and Gladys decides to follow Scotty’s ‘leadership’ example.

  14. If those maskless protesters are travelling home via train I wonder if they’ll have the balls to go maskless on the train? Police have been pretty full on policing mask wearing on the trains from what people have told me.

  15. cat,

    They could make an earnest contribution about the politics of Covid.

    I wonder why they aren’t doing that?

  17. 1m extra vaccinations in the last week. We are now well ahead of NZ and just behind South Korea. Vaccinations will be done by Christmas. It will be easily north of 30m vaccinations by Christmas at this rate.

    If only the election were held in 2021?

  19. The old chestnut of leadership aspirations of the opposition party isnt going to work.
    We are in a bona fide crisis at present, and Morrison and Gladys are scrambling to get out of it.

  20. @zalisteggall tweets

    Please do not return to Warringah. You are putting our businesses and health at risk. So many are doing the right thing at great personal and financial cost and you are showing your truly selfish character. @ManlyObserver @ManlyDaily @MosmanDaily @nswpolice #auspol

  22. Victoria @ #1366 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 4:05 pm

    The old chestnut of leadership aspirations of the opposition party isnt going to work.
    We are in a bona fide crisis at present, and Morrison and Gladys are scrambling to get out of it.

    And all the Liberals have got in their cupboard is ‘Bill Shorten ooga booga boo!’
    Pa-thetic.

  24. Victoria @ #1371 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 4:05 pm

    The old chestnut of leadership aspirations of the opposition party isnt going to work.
    We are in a bona fide crisis at present, and Morrison and Gladys are scrambling to get out of it.

    It’s only the baiters on PB who are talking about the Labor leadership and that’s only because they don’t understand what’s actually going on.

  25. Vic,

    The only political issue du jour is Covid and certain posters are group masturbating about something else.

    Why is that?

  26. Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 4:07 pm

    At least President Camacho listened to the experts.
    ________
    The director was also responsible for Office Space, one of my favorite movies. A classic 🙂

  27. Oh dear remember tik tok guy who released the case numbers night before….

    There is video linked.

    Eden Gillespie
    @edengillespie
    ·
    9m
    The video of TikTok guy telling a crowd at the anti-lockdown rally in Sydney, “all we want is freedom”.
    Quote Tweet
    Nathan Ruser
    @Nrg8000
    · 27m
    Jon-Bernard Kairouz aka the TikTok Guy making a speech at today’s anti-lockdown protest in Sydney saying “All we want is freedom”. The speaker immediately after him says “… a fake virus that does not exist. There is no virus people, it’s a lie!”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1418808897536761857

  28. @JoshButler tweets
    These anti-lockdown protests didn’t just surprise spring up from nowhere. They’ve been promoting them in conspiracy social groups for weeks, part of a global organised thing. *Katie Hopkins* has posted about them

    I imagine such protests will be seen worldwide in coming hours

  31. guytaur says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 4:15 pm
    NSW Police Minister forming a strike force to identify the protestors. Presser now.
    ______________________
    Imagine if it had been the Vic coppers – they’d be doing a casualty report now!

  32. Lars:

    1m extra vaccinations in the last week. We are now well ahead of NZ and just behind South Korea. Vaccinations will be done by Christmas. It will be easily north of 30m vaccinations by Christmas at this rate.

    Sure, and then everything will be totally back to normal, right? No unemployment, no ruined businesses, no drained savings accounts, no lingering anger over extended lockdowns, no memories whatsoever of this completely avoidable clusterfuck?

    While it is true that the electorate can be notoriously inconsistent when it comes to what they choose to remember and what they forget, I have a suspicion that this will be one that gets remembered

  33. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 4:04 pm
    1m extra vaccinations in the last week. We are now well ahead of NZ and just behind South Korea. Vaccinations will be done by Christmas. It will be easily north of 30m vaccinations by Christmas at this rate.

    If only the election were held in 2021?
    ——————-

    Is Lars Von Trier condemning Morrison and his cronies for not calling the election in 2021

  34. certain posters are group masturbating about something else.

    Why is that?

    Got to get that Liberal preselection somehow.

  40. Recon:

    In a page where someone hoped that a person in Sydney should suffer from Long Covid, you find our jesting about Shortens’ ambitions the more offensive?

    While it’s certainly true that some people can be a bit too precious about their preferred political party, I think a simpler explanation for why people have chosen to single you two out over the whoever made the long-Covid remark is that you and Lars have posted something like 10 posts in the past fifteen minutes on your favourite federal MP, whereas many (myself included) probably totally missed the latter comment among the noise while scrolling through.

  41. In anti-vaccination march, there are Lib/Nats propaganda media unit hacks supporting and joining the protest

    Surely this is a cause for some of these lib/nats propaganda media units to lose their licenses to broadcast

  42. Where is the evidence that the current restrictions (10km or within LGA) are less effective?

    You can’t be serious. New South Wales. Like literally right now New South Wales. The restrictions have failed where other states have succeeded, because they were both too late and too lax.

    If you want 10km, provide evidence that a lockdown with a 10km travel limit can work against delta.

  43. The ultra right wing chap upon whom I wished Long Covid was the idiot who was holding a sign saying that Covid was cost free. He was doing this while engaging what is possibly the Mother of All Super Spreader Events.

    Nothing else has worked in terms of his education. Maybe Long Covid would.

  44. The very high number of tests in the Sydney region shows that people are taking the threat very seriously, in spite of the myth that they don’t care.

  45. Scott,

    If true and revealed conclusively means they have put a shot gun up their arse and pulled the trigger.

  48. Asha I posted 5 times on the issue. Perhaps a little excessive. But part of it was an exchange. I also note that you have posted 2 times on our posts.

  50. Another point on the rollout being completed before the next election: Covid no longer being an issue* means that the benefits of being an incumbent during the pandemic also dissipate.

    * Of course, what we’re seeing overseas suggests that isn’t the most realistic of predictions.

Comments Page 28 of 34
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