Election news:
• The Palaszczuk government faces what it may now think a fortuitously timed by-election tomorrow in the southern Brisbane seat of Stretton. The seat was vacated by the late Duncan Pegg, who retained it for Labor by a margin of 14.8% at the state election last October. The intimidating margin has not stopped Liberal National Party taking the field, together with the Greens, Animal Justice and the Informed Medical Options Party. My guide to the by-election can be found here; tune in tomorrow for live results, my page for which awaits the numbers here.
• Jack Morphet of the Sunday Mail reports Nick Xenophon is “seriously considering another tilt at federal politics”, ostensibly because the federal government has failed to protect the rights of Australian producers to market sheepskin boots as ugg boots, the name of which is trademarked by an American company.
• The Herald Sun reports Labor’s Victorian preselection process, which has been commandeered by the party’s national executive after a branch-stacking scandal, has confirmed candidates in four marginal Liberal seats. Gladys Liu will defend her negligible margin in Chisholm against Carina Garland, former assistant secretary at Victorian Trades Hall Council, who was chosen ahead of Monash mayor Rebecca Paterson. In Higgins, the once safe Liberal seat that is developing into a three-cornered contest between Liberal, Labor and the Greens, Katie Allen will face Michelle Ananda-Rajah, consultant physician in general medicine and infectious diseases at Alfred Health. In Casey, where the Liberals will defend a 4.6% margin in the absence of retiring incumbent Tony Smith, Labor has again chosen its candidate from 2019, engineer and small business owner Bill Brindle. In Deakin, which Michael Sukkar holds for the Liberals by 4.7%, the Labor candidate is Matthew Gregg, a teacher.
From the world of academia (Queensland chapter):
• In the Australian Journal of Politics and History, Paul Williams of Griffith University offers Queensland’s role in the 2019 Australian federal election: a case study of regional difference (paywalled, naturally). Williams argues the Coalition’s strong federal performance in Queensland can be understood in terms of its six diverse regions and five elements of its political culture. The former reflect the state’s decentralisation and reliance on primary industries, which show up demographically in low educational attainment, high religious observance and a paucity of migrants. The political culture elements are “a predilection for strong, masculine political leadership; a zealotry for state development; a disproportionate focus on regional and rural districts in budgetary allocations; a pragmatically flexible approach to policy-making” (the Humphrey Appleby-esque note struck by the latter would seem to be deliberate) and “a parochial chauvinism celebrating a Queensland difference, and drawing a moral superiority from it”.
• In the Australian Journal of Political Science, Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland and Tracey Arklay of Griffith University are rethinking voter identification: its rationale and impact. This includes an analysis of Queensland’s one-off experiment with a soft voter identification regime in 2015, which reaches the unsurprising conclusion that migrant and especially indigenous areas had the greatest number of voters needing to lodge provisional votes for want of acceptable identification on the day. For this reason, and despite the measure’s clearly modest impact on the voting returns, the paper concludes “there is no real case for voter ID in Australia”, which it deems “a solution in search of a problem”.
Psephological arcana:
• In keeping with its code of conduct obligations as a member of the recently launched Australian Polling Council, YouGov has published methodology statements for the last four Newspoll surveys. Among other things, these fully detail the questionnaires that were presented to the respondents.
• David Barry has developed a tool for exploring Senate preference flows at the 2019 election using the ballot paper data files, which is immensely nifty if you can work out how to use it.
• A Tasmanian Electoral Commission report into the recent state election, which unusually coupled a statewide lower house election with one of the state’s periodic upper house elections for two of the chamber’s 15 seats, finds over 6% of those who ought to have lodged an upper house vote did not do so because they attended a booth in the wrong part of the electorate, and a further 1% were not issued with a ballot due to staff error. It argues against the contention that this should invalidate the election, since the errors in the former case were committed by the voters rather than the commission, and the latter were too few in number to affect the results.
Oh, look, SA has defeated Delta too.
@timsout tweets
Our national unity is shot when people are more interested in seeing others punished because of partisan or state tribalism. That’s where we are right now. If your parochialism trumps your concern for your fellow citizens, shame on you
@DocAvvers tweets
Yes. We saw it begin last year, when Morrison, Frydenberg, Hunt and Berejiklian started politicising the virus by condemning Victoria’s second lockdown rather than supporting Victoria. It’s sad to watch some people respond this year by doing the same thing to NSW in return.
C@tmomma 11:31 am
It’s 1.8-2.0 times more infectious than the vanilla wuflu. The 1000x relates to……………
.
.
What’s This About Delta Being 1,000 Times More Infectious?
— Here’s where that frightening figure comes from
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/93717
Zoomster
VIC will follow SA too, sooner than later
lizzie @ #1095 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 11:50 am
It was almost a throw away line in that press conference, and who knows what it means or doesn’t, if anything. As to your question, it would be all about his image wouldn’t it? And I mean seriously. He came back from Hawaii in the bush fire emergency when he started to look bad. Not one minute earlier.
Steven Marshall – “Look, I’m so grateful that we put these restrictions in when we did. If we had have waited another 12 or 24 hours, we know this particular strain would have got away from us.”
_____
The difference is reaction time measured in hours, not weeks, brought sharply into focus.
Victoria hasn’t quite defeated delta yet. We are due out of lockdown Tuesday night.
If we had not done so when we did, we would be heading in the same direction as NSW,
And of course, more leakages will likely occur.
NSW need to do the hard yards Victoria did, and continues to do.
C@t
On Biden, I think you listen to this already ..
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/pod-save-america/id1192761536
The next couple of weeks will be telling..
Asha Leu
“Hey, now, the Brigadier only became useless comic relief in the latter seasons of the Pertwee era, he played the “only sane man” role originally.”
I believe it was this same Dr (Pertwee) who said: “military intelligence is a contradiction in terms.”
Lizzie
The Professor is correct. Basically NSW is asking other states to pick up their frickin slack.
They need to do the hard work right now. Today.
That is NOT a guy with declining mental faculties.
Too right!
Thanks zoomster.
Prof Marc Tennant
@MarcTennant
·
3m
Ok – lets disregard the news conference in NSW. What would be next steps based on oother places?
1. Ring of Steel SYDNEY- protect the nation
2. Curfews – 8pm to 5am. No movement
3. Sydney wide – do NOT leave 2km.
4. Cut down exclusion list for movements
5. Increase payments.
Sceptic
Yep. Sounds like a plan.
Love Brad Hazzard : Give us all your Pfizer or poor brown people in south-west Sydney are gunna die”.
Professor Marc Tennant is broadly correct. We need a kitchen sink approach as we do NOT know the impact of individual restrictions.
We should still add increased vaccination as every little bit reduces healthcare consumption and potentially decreases transmissibility.
We should also add outdoor masks. Less for the risk, more for the nudge i.e. increasing the perception of mask use as a social norm.
Lastly, we should increase restrictions in regional NSW as it is out there now.
Another day, another illustration of Berejiklian’s mockdown failure.
Sceptic @ #1112 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 12:04 pm
The premier has promised construction work will resume on 31 July. That’s a whole lot more people moving around the city.
Fess
The Vic team would advise Gladys that she should never promise dates in advance.
There is a police helicopter hovering above the CBD not moving….
We all know the failures.
Just accept advice you continually give the Greens or forever shutup.
It’s practical politics to get solutions out of the people that have the power
tweet quoted by guytaur earlier:
I am in a similar boat. About 3 weeks ago I booked, via the NSW Health vaccination portal, two Pfizer doses in August. I assume that it is likely that the 2nd dose is now likely to be delayed/cancelled, but I also assume NSW health will inform me of that when it happens.
While I had appointments locked in to be all done by the end of August I didn’t think considering AZ had any point what with the longer delay between jabs and lower efficacy etc.
Now there are these, effectively, “patriotic” urgings to people under 60 to basically volunteer to get AZ for the good of … well, the NSW and Federal governments really, but “all of us”.
So, yeah, of course I would prefer to stick with the original offered appointments. And I am hesitant about going to AZ – not so much because of clots but because it’s just not as good. Thinking about this I think I would be ok with giving up my Pfizer appointments altogether now and going to get AZ shots if a few things were guaranteed:
1) that doing so would actually go towards, in a planned sensible way, vaccinating younger people who actually need to go in to work and risk exposure during this lockdown, and that this focus was guided solely by practical health advice not political considerations, and not just whoever thinks their business is essential, and
2) that I would be scheduled for a guaranteed booster shot in 6 months time or so with one of the mRNA vaccines
That booster guarantee actually feels kind of important to my acceptance of the process because I don’t want to think that I’m going to be left with fairly substantially lower protection. Presumably boosters are going to have to happen, but no one in officialdom seems to be talking about it. Maybe because it’s beyond their short term horizon of fighting the current crisis, but … if I’m not the only one with this kind of hesitancy I think it’s an important thing to be talking about.
For now, with so little confidence in the planning of either the NSW or Federal governments, I’ll stick with getting Pfizer when I can; if the 2nd dose gets pushed out a few weeks that’s ok I’ll just ride it out.
lizzie:
I’ve lost count of the number of times she’s said there were greenshoots in the numbers, only to be proven wrong by the next day’s figures. She should just stop trying to hope and wish this away.
Sydney’s Freedom March. “Must be 5000 here. Great atmosphere,” says John Ruddick.
Jackol
Yes. Some guarantees would help immensely.
Unfortunately Morrison is all spin and his vaccination failure makes you doubt his guarantees.
Newsltd and the other lib/nats propaganda media units are guilty of incompetence as Morrison/Gladys and their cronies are, they all wanted no borders to close or lockdowns and wanted people to live with the virus, Economy over health
Is there any evidence that increased restrictions on outdoor exercise – over and above the ones currently in place – make a difference?
Does contract tracing indicate that outdoor exercising is a source of transmission?
From what I can tell the answer to both of those questions is a resounding no.
But I’m happy to be presented with data that contradicts that (I’m not looking for opinions from various experts or commentators, I’m wondering if there is data out there that demonstrates a ‘yes’ answer to the above).
Port Adelaide chairman David Koch has backed a ‘no jab, no entry’ stance to see the return of AFL crowds.
The Age reported on Friday that the AFL has been looking overseas to the likes of USA, Europe and the United Kingdom at models where fans attending matches need to include proof of vaccinations or negative Covid tests.
Just 11.5 per cent of the Australian population is fully vaccinated amid a slow vaccine rollout by the federal government. It’s a figure dwarfed by 54.4 per cent of the UK population and 49.2 per cent of the US who are fully vaccinated.
Speaking to 3AW, Koch said that he believes vaccinations are the only pathway for the league’s return to normality.
C@t,
My thoughts exactly.
There is a well-known seasonal component to COVID19, NSW has had the coldest winter I remember in a long time. Cold and long.
However, by the 2nd week of August, we will be warming up significantly, and the humidity will be rising – this damps down droplet / aerosol spread (let me tell you some time about the arguments about what are “dust” and what are “molecules” in space ).
Melbourne has a lot longer of cold weather / low pwv (precipitable water vapour a.k.a. low humidity) until their peak COVID season passes.
Unless Hazzard is lacking in intellect, or is getting very poor advice, he will know this.
Anyway, off to take my mum to former well known COVID hotspot East Village for her weekly shop.
I have told her that she can explain to the nice police person why I am only competent to push the trolley, and why I can be trusted with a list. And why click and collect is no good. Do not worry. I drive her crazy about physical distancing and hand sanitising.
Also, just heard a snippet on my dog walk in Redfern park- apparently 4 young guys in Judo gear exercising together were told they were breaking the law. Not sure if it was in Redfern park or elsewhere. And pol-air is doing a raster scan of our area.
@joshburnsmp tweets
It’s not the other states responsibility to organise vaccines for lockdown states, it’s Scott Morrison’s responsibility.
Get back on the phone to Pfizer, call Moderna and show some leadership.
#auspoI
According to Norman Swan, there is a truckload of money going into pathology labs as it costs around $100 per test. Rapid antigen testing cost about $10 a unit. Huge difference.
lizzie @ #1124 Saturday, July 24th, 2021 – 12:17 pm
That would explain the helicopter.
Fess
Perhaps the helicopter could blow the aerosols away.
(Sorry, overcome with humour, there.)
Jodi MacKay has got this right
Jodi McKay
@JodiMcKayMP
.
@GladysB
has relentlessly dumped on Victoria and Queensland – now we’re upset they won’t help us?
Can I apologise to Victorians and Queenslanders for the hubris shown by our Government, which is now coming home to roost.
—————
VicGov provides numbers of people isolating (over 20,000). Does NSW give their numbers?
steve davis:
Saturday, July 24, 2021 at 11:26 am
[‘Where has that Shiny medals bloke disappeared to?’]
He’ll be mustering the troops to patrol Sydney.
Andrew_Earlwood,
Like the earlier days of the pandemic, mask use did not have strong evidence. Certain experts abandoned the precautionary principle when considering mask use. Thankfully the situation has changed with respect to the recommendation for mask use.
The second issue is to appreciate human behaviour and to nudge people to do the right thing when it counts. One strategy of benefit is to encourage that behaviour even when the risk is lower, as it further normalises the behaviour and thereby facilities the desired behaviour being the default behaviour. There is a tradeoff of course, as there may be undesired consequences i.e. mental and physical health as result of decreased exercise.
The only thing I am truly certain of, is that I am glad that I am not making the decisions.
At this rate – the numbers will hit in the two hundreds by end of next week I would think – if NSW government stop being and acting like a spoiled children.
A 2km distance limit is not a restriction on outdoor exercise.
It is a restriction on social contact.
Re SFM ‘bringing in the army’ and NSW. My mind sees…….
Scott
Yes it’s good acknowledgment of NSW government failure.
The aim now is keeping human interactions down.
People alone and/or socially distanced are not going to spread the virus.
10 or 5km travel in a car is not going to make a difference as long as people are isolated and not interacting.
The problem comes back to essential workers having to interact with people and those who wilfully breach health orders.
Telephoto lens photos of people moving about to make it look like they are not doing isolation, and vaccination hunger games don’t help.
Afternoon all. Like others here I am stunned by the parallel universe that Brad Hazzard’s thoughts seem to be originating in. He talks about emergency vaccinations like they are a short term solution for an immediate crisis. They are not. The short term solution is a proper lock down, which he refuses to order.
Lets do the maths. Australia has been getting one million doses of AZ a week and will start getting one million doses of Pfizer per week from next week. Even if all of it went to Sydney, it would be five weeks before everyone in Sydney was vaccinated, assuming there were no refusals. The rest of the state would take another three weeks.
So two months! They can’t just keep letting Covid spread in the meantime. Plus, that strategy would leave the rest of the States totally exposed.
Hazzard is nothing more than an impotent blame-shifter, like his premier and PM.
Socrates
It is lol though watching attempts from NSW and Feds each trying to blame the other. With luck they’ll each successfully throw the other ‘under the bus’.
lizzie:
I’m stunned at the stupidity of people! Who on earth would think during a pandemic where there is high community transmission that a public gathering to protest against lockdowns (the measure that has proven effective in stopping the spread) would be a good idea.
NSW aside, all other states have worked their arses off and invested their time and efforts into keeping the virus at bay while they wait for sufficient vaccines. That is why they are reticent to give up what meagre vaccine supplies they have.
As others see us. From CBC National TV news.
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1925536835739
Rising COVID-19 cases in Australia lead to lockdowns, tightened travel restrictions
As COVID-19 cases rise, Australia has tightened travel restrictions and put half its population back into lockdown. For one Canadian woman in Australia, it means she can’t go see her family in Canada. For an Australian family in Vancouver, it’s resulted in uncertainty over when they can go home.
Jackol, good well thought through.
The College of GPs, and Dr Chant, have both spoken about the people varying their vaccine regime, decreasing personal efficacy for the greater good, as being some sort of priority for boosters. Personally, faced with the sheer incompetence of the Federal sourcing and distribution of vaccines, and that it’s mRNA vaccines you want for boosters, and there’s no word on Moderna still, I think sticking with Plan A sounds like a good idea.
Fess
It seems to be led by the Liberal Democrats, our “new” party. Not a good start but I suppose they’re hoping to attract all the freedom nutcases.