First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
And now here’s Golden Glad!
110/43
I notice spray hasn’t been posting for a while
——————
Someone wishing his wife die probably had something to do with that.
Other people playing the man not the opinion didn’t help.
PB can be an unhealthy place. It has the ability to attract trolls and repel genuine contributors. It isn’t alone in that in the modern media.
@BernardKeane tweets
Morrison is entering the Billy McMahon free-fire mockery zone. And not before time. Can’t recall a more incompetent, deceitful, do-nothing PM.
________________
43 infectious in community NSW
94k tests – awesome response
110 cases
The NSW gold standard was always a fallacy. And I’m awaiting the wise words of oakeshott country to tell me otherwise,
She ascribes the large number of positive results to the high number of tests. Now, where have we heard that line before?
Barry Whitwam of Herman’s Hermits fame is pleased to note he shares his birthday with Mrs BK. Happy birthday to both.
.
.
‘I was the first exploding drummer’
https://www.shropshirestar.com/entertainment/music/2018/01/19/hermans-hermits-barry-whitwam-speaks-ahead-of-60s-shows-in-wolverhampton-and-birmingham—including-hilarious-tales-of-touring-with-the-who-meeting-elvis-and-his-mate-don-powell/
Re Sprocket @10:48.
… or all of the above.
BK
The cases have to be there!
110 new cases NSW – 43 in the community!
BK
Is Gladys channeling Dotard?
Sprocket
Were the tests in one day or results of backlog. Cos if it is results of backlog it means contact tracers have lost control of the movement of the virus.
She ascribes the large number of positive results to the high number of tests. Now, where have we heard that line before?
———————
Ha! Very good! Gold star.
The NSW hospitalisation numbers will soon be pointing to a choke point.
Sorry NSW but comical Ali comes to mind. It really does.
BK
Ooooooooooooh: ‘choke point’
I want for Berejiklian to get her key messages across but they are far too verbose. They are a turn off.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:32 am
………
Plus the people who live in the big houses out West, NW and SW, have never cleaned their houses and wouldn’t know how
”
That is not true
Do we have the numbers for; ‘partially in the community’ and
‘mostly kinda in isolation but not’
Based on that Victoria had 60,000 tests for return of 22 cases.
If Victoria had 94,000 tests, could we assume another 11 cases?
GladysB needs to focus on the amount infectious in community.
They are not driving down the virus. Simple as that.
There is sure to be a great ‘management speak’ term for ‘choke point’ . Anyone know it ?
“scooping up” is an interesting turn of phrase.
110+22 = 132
7 minute opening ramble from Gladys
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:06 am
There is sure to be a great ‘management speak’ term for ‘choke point’ . Anyone know it ?’
__________________________________________
Executive promotion?
Dandy Murray @ #137 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:46 am
You know it. And employers gaming the system.
Gladys drops SfM in it, once again.
“Our vaccination rates are so low…”
Someone has obviously told her that spending 15 minutes saying “Thank you, thank you, thank you…” on repeat, makes the mug punters feel good about themselves, and her.
Well I just learned a lesson the hard way.
My kitchen was bare so I had to stock up on groceries (doing one big run to cover at least a week of course) and I couldn’t find the normal comfy masks I have put aside for lockdown, so I resorted to the (untested) pack of disposable ones I have as backup. I seem to have an allergy to something in them (one of the sanitising agents, no doubt.) After really struggling to breathe and getting a bit light-headed while I was out, I made it home safe and in one piece, peeled off the mask to discover it’s left a big rash on my face. I won’t be wearing any of those ones again (and just to clarify: they aren’t cheap knockoffs or something; I got them from the pharmacy last year.)
Anyway, how are all of you?
Ven @ #170 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 11:06 am
Sorry, some of them. 🙂
110
37 in isolation
only 54 linked
Oh Dear! We are in major doo-doos. Scratch current modelling. It has broken containment lines. We need lock down across Greater Sydney at the same extent as the 3 LGAs.
GladysB. Has been drinking her own bath water for too long,
She isn’t able to lead effectively at present. Sorry to say.
boerwar
Here are the up to date hospitalisation numbers.
https://covidlive.com.au/report/hospitalised
Hunt has been made a fool again, claiming the infections in the community has been stabilise in NSW , since Hunt has claimed that
NSW jumped from 27 – 43 in less than a week
Wat
Well thank you, and good on you for persisting with the masks in the face of personal difficulties.
Wat Tyler
Quite a few of us bludgers are all once again sharing a lived experience of lockdown. So all good. Lol!
Choke point – always used to justify the extra lane being built on a freeway, which only succeeds in moving the choke point to a different location, usually about 500m further up the road…
Interesting, Gladys Berejiklian has stopped comparing the NSW response to other state’s in Australia (remember “the gold standard”) and has started comparing responses to other, much harder hit countries around the world. Not a brilliant sign.
______
Time for an apt Deming quotation. “Nothing can do more harm than a lousy competitor”.
https://forbiddenstories.org/censored-stories-on-covid-19-a-worldwide-media-blackout-threat/
‘BK says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:10 am
boerwar
Here are the up to date hospitalisation numbers.
https://covidlive.com.au/report/hospitalised‘
___________________________
Thank you. I was referring to ‘choke point’. Cough Cough.
BK
Spot on.
GladysB has the opportunity to follow the lead of others. But so far she has taken a path that is incomprehensible under the circumstances.
Who’s this weirdo faking about NSW going in ‘hard and fast’? What a wackaloon.
boerwar
It was an unintended pun
Griff
“Oh Dear! We are in major doo-doos.”
Gladys is doing a lot of scooping up.
Every time Gladys talks about green shoots, the numbers increase the next day. I heard her mention green shoots on last night’s news, and today…
Alpha zero,
The key difference is that there is an efficient level of congestion on a freeway (or a power network).
Not so much in ICUs.
Berejiklian has generously decided to share the shitstorm with her colleagues.
Wat Tyler,
Maybe you may want to order in a nice cloth mask? May I recommend these artists who do good work?
https://www.redbubble.com/shop/deviantart+masks
It was actually 60 cases that were in the community whilst being infections for all or part of their infection periods.
‘BK says:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 11:12 am
boerwar
It was an unintended pun’
____________________
Often the best, IMO. BTW, happy birthday to Mrs BK and I trust that this time next year the tribe can gather for a truly joyous freedom birthday party.