Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 3 of 36
1 2 3 4 36
  1. Morrison doing the rounds of radio this morning.

    (from Guardian updates)

    Benita Kolovos
    @benitakolov·
    2h
    Jase tells the PM the vaccine rollout has been a “nightmare”. “Can you honestly say to me that the government has taken accountability? I’ve never heard the word sorry,” he says.

    The PM replies: “We’re fixing the problems and getting on with it”.

    Benita Kolovos
    @benitakolovos
    2h
    “I’m accountable for the vaccination program and everything that’s happened in it and I’m also accountable for fixing it and that’s what I’m doing,” the PM says.

    Benita Kolovos
    @benitakolovos
    2h
    The PM is now joining Fox FM with Fifi, Fev and Byron. He says every month the vaccine rollout is improving. “It’s on the right track … I suspect we’re two months max behind where we would hope to have been because of the problems we’ve had,” the PM says.

  2. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:13 am
    Why the change of tact at fox channel. Even the morning crew have gone on a please get vaccinated if you can and of course check with your doctor etc etc

    Sean Hannity hits the panic button

    Sean has been informed by his lawyers that he will be liable for people following his previous.. “it’s a hoax” advice.

    Alan Jones et al take NOTE

  3. Simon Katich @ #92 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:10 am

    I remember woy woy as being a permanent ghost town. Famous for two things – being the last station before the tunnel (and almost as dark and dingy) and Spike.

    It’s gentrifying, man, like you wouldn’t believe! All of the waterfront areas of Woy Woy, Ettalong Beach and Umina Beach, are having stonking great glass and chrome mansions built on them. There are trendy Interior Decorators setting up shop. Ugh! All of it is being transplanted from further down the coast to our neck of the woods.

  4. @Ro__Sheen
    ·
    1m
    Well this arrived at a good time… #MorrisonLockdown Smiling face with hornsSmiling face with horns
    #COVID19nsw #GladysSuperSpreader

  5. Sceptic @ #102 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:18 am

    Victoria says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:13 am
    Why the change of tact at fox channel. Even the morning crew have gone on a please get vaccinated if you can and of course check with your doctor etc etc

    Sean Hannity hits the panic button

    Sean has been informed by his lawyers that he will be liable for people following his previous.. “it’s a hoax” advice.

    Alan Jones et al take NOTE

    I’ll believe it when Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham quit it.

  6. I’m thinking it is not a good business plan allowing your most ardent viewers to get COVID.
    In the long run it is a false economy.

  7. @DougCameron tweets

    If Morrison was a worker he would be sacked.
    Disappears without explanation, incapable of doing the job.
    Lies and bullshits to cover his incompetence.
    Uses company money to advance personal interest.
    Puts others health in jeopardy.
    Wouldn’t last 2 minutes in the real world !
    ____________________

    14 hours ago @SwannyQLD tweets

    “Morrison treats Australians as if they are stupid when he tells them there was never any chance they could have been vaccinated enough ..to avoid lockdowns .it’s obvious to anyone that even just one more vaccinated limo driver could have avoided all this”@THEMONTHLY

  8. facebook also needs to be held to account for all the deaths and disease its allowing misinformation on its platform has caused.

  9. There are a few here (mainly LNP apologists) who are lauding the progress of the vaccine roll out.
    My take is that if you put a garden hose in a swimming pool to fill it, eventually – given a lot of time – the swimming pool will fill….Doesn’t matter in normal life, but as the British found out, and may find out again, people die in the interim.

  10. Shorter Hunt: It doesn’t matter if under 40s are ending up in hospital and intensive care, we don’t have any vaccines. Tough luck.

    Australians under 40 will not be eligible for Pfizer coronavirus jabs ahead of schedule despite increasing hospitalisations of younger people, reports Matt Coughlan, from AAP.

    A teenager is included in NSW’s 27 intensive care patients in NSW, with the majority under 60 and 24 unvaccinated.

    Health minister Greg Hunt pointed to Pfizer supplies as the main reason the vaccine rollout could not be immediately extended to under 40s.

    What we’re doing at the moment is following the advice because there are a finite number of vaccines.

    At this point in time we’re working through the 40 to 59 age group.

    (Guardian at 10:09)

  11. One journo seems pretty sure Scrott said it was a race.’.
    .
    .
    The Morrison government’s ‘vaccine rollout is not a race’ nonsense tells us a lot about what’s gone wrong
    Katharine Murphy

    ……….Scott Morrison (recently back from New Zealand) was asked whether it remained his view that vaccinating Australians was “not a race”.Morrison faced this question because the reason half the government is out saying Australia’s coronavirus vaccination program “isn’t a race” is because the prime minister made this observation several times. So if ministers said something different, then they would be contradicting him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/01/the-morrison-governments-vaccine-rollout-is-not-a-race-nonsense-tells-us-a-lot-about-whats-gone-wrong

  12. Poroti

    Millions of people heard what Morrison said several times in different settings.

    The fact that he is gaslighting the people he was sworn to serve tells you everything you need to know about him

    He needs to be kicked out on his frickin backside.

  13. I think the jury should be ready for a verdict by now.
    ..
    .
    video: Prime Minister defends saying the vaccine rollout is “not a race”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-01/prime-minister-defends-saying-vaccine-rollout-not-a-race/13368694

    With hindsight, it’s unlikely that the Morrison brains trust would have used the phrase “it’s not a race” about the rollout — a phrase first used by the Coalition’s hand-picked health secretary Brendan Murphy on March 10 and by Morrison himself, twice, in interviews the following day, in what was clearly a deliberately chosen talking point. “It’s not a race. It’s not a competition,” Morrison would say repeatedly.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/05/31/scott-morrison-covid-19-vaccine-race/

  14. Tricot @ #112 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:23 am

    There are a few here (mainly LNP apologists) who are lauding the progress of the vaccine roll out.
    My take is that if you put a garden hose in a swimming pool to fill it, eventually – given a lot of time – the swimming pool will fill….Doesn’t matter in normal life, but as the British found out, and may find out again, people die in the interim.

    Yes, but hey, Aus compared to New Zealand!

    Which is highly irrelevant but the Liberal apologists have to have something to hang their misdirection hat on. 🙄

  15. Sprocket

    I will repeat myself. Apologies,

    The NSW public have to be explained a clear plan of what it is going to take to overcome this wave.

    I don’t watch the pressers generally, but the messaging from the start has been muddled.

    There needs to be a clear plan showing the modelling and what behaviours and actions need to happen each week to drive down the virus.

    Once people see clearly what it will require, they will adjust their behaviour accordingly.

    GladysB. Needs to be honest and tell the public how long this is going to take.

  16. And as I also said. It should be easy enough for her to do this as the NSW opposition and media are supportive of her and the govt.

    When Andrews did it here, there was daily pushback from all quarters.

    No support. He had to front up every day to direct the public on the journey.

  17. sprocket_ @ #117 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:25 am

    Drop of NSW numbers to ChNein… bad news

    100+ with no drop in infectious in the community measure

    It’s people who keep working while waiting for their results for 4-5 days. And I bet a lot of it is black market, cash-in-hand work too. Like people who clean the McMansions and do the gardening, pool cleaning etc. They will keep sneaking around the place because they need the money. Plus the people who live in the big houses out West, NW and SW, have never cleaned their houses and wouldn’t know how to.

  18. At 11 Gladys will be all. Please please please …sorry sorry sorry .

    Later Dan will be all… we don’t want to be like NSW.. but we feel for them

  19. @jamesmassola tweets

    Interesting the Prime Minister did interviews this morning on ABC radio and FiveAA in SA, morning after lockdown began in SA. He has done several with Sydney media outlets over the last month too. As far as I can tell, his last interview w/ a Melbourne outlet was 3AW on May 20.

    of course, the PM has done press conferences and interviews in that time with national media which appears in Victoria. But state-specific stuff has been in Qld, WA and Qld in the two months back to May 20 (also worth nothing PMO doesn’t always alert *every* single interview).

    back in 2013, @murpharoo wrote a terrific piece just after Tony Abbott was elected about how he wanted to slow the media cycle down/dictate its pace. It didn’t work for him (piece here bit.ly/3xUColf). I reckon Scott Morrison is attempting similar and having more success

    ____________________

    I disagree about the more success if the polls are any guide. At least it’s a logical argument

  20. C@tmommas at 10:21 am

    Alpha Zero,
    So. Many. Cliches! Does Morrison really think people will swallow it?

    Given ‘people’ put his arse on the PM’s chair then he has good reason to believe yes, yes they will.

  21. For countries like Australia and New Zealand the vaccine roll out race has two finishing lines.

    1. The vaccination programme has been completed.

    and

    2. The next major outbreak.

    Ideally you want the second one further away than the first.

    Unfortunately we went off track and have finish line number 2.

  22. Sprocket

    Didn’t take long for Streisand effect to kick in..

    Josh Butler
    (@JoshButler)
    Scott Morrison on ABC Adelaide today claims his “not a race” comments were taken out of context, that he was specifically talking about approval process of vaccines

    but he was still giving such responses in March & April, *after* approvals, on questions about pace of the rollout pic.twitter.com/tmncfFyxOh

  23. Morrison doing Adelaide radio because he knows this lockdown has the potential to finish Mayo and even Boothby for the Libs. And possibly bring Sturt into play. He can’t afford that. So he is on the front foot early.

    Let’s hope the state alp get some good candidates going soon.

  24. “They will keep sneaking around the place because they need the money.”

    Ahuh. There is a systemic issue at play here: casualisation and insecure work.

  25. NSW residents are being warned to brace themselves for a shock increase in infections, with the Premier expected to announce more than 100 new cases.

    “Numbers will be a shock today,” 9 News reporter Chris O’Keefe wrote on Twitter. “More than 100 new cases, and a big number of infections in the community. Feels like we are going backwards. Good news is no further cases in Orange/Central West.”

  26. “TransGrid’s Victoria-NSW Interconnector (VNI) upgrade is now at 55 per cent completion, with the majority of civil work done.

    “When completed, the project will increase transfer capacity into NSW from Victoria by 170MW in peak periods.”

    https://www.energymagazine.com.au/vic-nsw-interconnector-upgrade-passes-halfway-mark/?mc_cid=e81f501288

    “The VNI upgrade will help reduce electricity bills through more efficient sharing of generation resources between the states. It will also enable more energy from renewable sources to enter the grid.”

    Just like Labor’s energy policy.

  27. I notice spray hasn’t been posting for a while.

    Spray was none too pleased with my commentary at the time.

    Unfortunately it was easy to see where this outbreak from NSW was heading and that in turn was going to impact Victoria.
    I make no apologies for that.

  28. @murpharoo tweets

    “You know what, can you just say sorry?” .. kiis1011.com.au/lifestyle/jase… #auspol

    _________
    PM appearance not going well.

  29. Sprocket I think your memes need to link Morrison and pfizer better:

    A smirking Morrison saying. ‘I’m fully vaccinated with pfizer. How bout you?’ or perhaps, ‘I smirked my way through pfizer negotiations’

  30. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/07/21/resolve-strategic-essential-research-and-more/#comment-3658470

    Sounds like a challenge for the ratfxyzers?
    KRudd7x7 i/c Copenhagen COP comes to mind (https://apple.news/AQzaAG-JDTWKxBIl-3WPM5g) even Glasgow COP: “We’re already seeing dramatic consequences with 1.2C of warming”.
    Not that the CCP of the PRC are so much worse on the environment (autocrats, theocrazies, fascists don’t seem to give a stuff, you’d think democracies would though), same same, especially not when taking carbon accounting back to Pommy Empire days, and not even the little red book still replaces the soul officially. “ G20 nations collectively cut fossil fuel funding by 10% from 2015 to 2019. However, eight countries, including the US, Canada and Australia increased their financial support for oil, coal and gas in this period.
    Last week, Mr Kerry travelled to Moscow where both sides agreed that the climate issue is one of common interest. President Putin said that Moscow “attaches great importance” to achieving the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
    In May, Mr Kerry was criticised by some scientists for rejecting the idea that Americans would have to change their consumption habits, for example, eating less meat.”
    Oligarchs and party.
    Just more haves, glorious rich and all that, have nots …
    And as usual the chatter turns to who is to blame, and who gets to pay for stranded assets …
    Wuflu in the mean time is a test run in how to cope with more flooding, fires, extreme weather.


  31. Victoriasays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:23 am
    Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingrahm are beyond redemption.

    Because Carlson and Ingraham reportedly are Conspiracy theorists of note on a related topic a lot ‘Oathkeepers’ are giving evidence against their fellow travellers to Jan 6.

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2040980

    As another Oath Keeper turns state’s evidence in Jan. 6 insurrection, conspiracy case mounts

    The conspiracy case that federal prosecutors appear to be building around the behavior of two key groups involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection—namely, the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys—ratcheted another notch tighter this week when one of the men involved in the Oath Keepers’ “stack” formation that day entered a guilty plea as part of a cooperation agreement with prosecutors.

  32. Why is it a shock. The question is why are people not isolating whilst awaiting their test, It doesn’t make sense to me.

    Chris O’Keefe
    @cokeefe9
    ·
    37m
    Numbers will be a shock today. More than 100, and a big number infectious in the community. Feels like we are going backwards. Good news is no further cases so far in Orange/Central West.
    @9NewsAUS

Comments Page 3 of 36
1 2 3 4 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *