Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

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    Tom Barrack, a former adviser to former President Donald Trump, was charged Tuesday with illegal foreign lobbying on behalf of the United Arab Emirates for what federal prosecutors described as an effort to influence the foreign policy positions of both the 2016 Trump presidential campaign and the subsequent incoming administration.

    Barrack is charged in a seven-count indictment with acting as an agent of the UAE between April 2016 and April 2018. He is also charged with obstruction of justice and making false statements to federal law enforcement agents.
    Barrack was the chairman of Trump’s inaugural committee, although the charges appear unrelated to the inauguration.
    According to the indictment, Barrack and two other men charged Tuesday — Matthew Grimes of Aspen, Colorado, and Rashid Sultan Rashid Al Malik Alshahhi, a UAE national — capitalized on Barrack’s status as a senior outside adviser to the Trump campaign to “advance the interests of and provide intelligence to the UAE while simultaneously failing to notify the Attorney General that their actions were taken at the direction of senior UAE officials.”

  2. Cameron @ #1596 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 11:16 pm

    Which stereotype do you think we should all conform to?
    I would say the Anglo way is what should be encouraged…
    Look people are going to do what they want… But my point is the government shouldn’t be promoting division… They shouldn’t be encouraging division… They should be encouraging unity


    What does this even mean?

    White, Christian, meat and three veg?

    Certainly the Government shouldn’t be promoting division, but that doesn’t mean people have to be pretend to be something they are not.

    Your rather confused ideas seem just as divisive as a Government that promotes division.

    Why do you seem to find it so hard to accept people for who and what they are?

  3. I see there was discussion last night about the discussion the night before about Jethro Tull! The witty wordplay of Ian Anderson that reminds one of John Donne, the modern day (oh okay, 20th century) symphonies that was the music he created. And not to forget the flute, floating above it all. 😀

  4. Jaeger,
    You have to wonder whether the smug bastard, Putin, will do anything about it?

    More importantly, whether the smug bastard that we have as a Prime Minister will either? 🙁

  5. Sierra Snowbank Short on Funds

    Mountain snow is like a bank account for water across the western United States. Snow that falls on the Sierra Nevada, the Rocky Mountains, and other ranges becomes a natural reservoir that slowly melts each spring and summer and flows down into the river valleys. The resource managers of western states count on this allowance from nature to fill reservoirs with sufficient water for the typically dry months of summer and autumn. In 2021, those meltwater accounts have been turning up “insufficient funds.”

  6. Thanks William. The coyness of Resolve and Essential about 2PP is kind of funny. I wonder if it will survive the current electoral term, and the fading of memories about the 2019 polling embarrassment? Anybody who is minimally psephologically minded looks at these numbers and does their own backyard 2PP calculation anyway.

  7. max @ #NaN Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 5:00 am

    Thanks William. The coyness of Resolve and Essential about 2PP is kind of funny. I wonder if it will survive the current electoral term, and the fading of memories about the 2019 polling embarrassment? Anybody who is minimally psephologically minded looks at these numbers and does their own backyard 2PP calculation anyway.

    I’d say it’s probably likely to last until the next election, then they will have some actual election results to calibrate against.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Governance experts fear Australia is sliding down the “slippery slope” of corruption, calling on the federal government to overhaul its planned integrity commission in the wake of an auditor-general report into a program funnelling hundreds of millions of dollars into Coalition-held seats.
    Ben Doherty and Christopher Knaus reveal that Canstruct International, the Brisbane company and Liberal party donor running Australia’s offshore processing regime on Nauru, has won another uncontested contract extension – $180m over six months – bringing its total revenue from island contracts over the past five years to more than $1.5bn.
    Conservative Australia is approaching a moment of truth. The pressure on the Morrison government to pledge net-zero carbon emissions at 2050 cannot be delayed or averted and the speed of global politics now makes this goal mainstream, not radical, writes Paul Kelly. Well fancy that!
    Scott Morrison’s attempt to nudge his government in the direction of a net zero commitment by 2050 is expected to face resistance at this weekend’s annual convention of the Liberal National party in Brisbane, says Katherine Murphy.
    “Is the COVID vaccine rollout the greatest public policy failure in recent Australian history?”, wonder these contributors to The Conversation. This is quite a good read and it touches on more that the rollout.
    The number of mystery cases in NSW has ballooned to levels not seen since the peak of the state’s March 2020 lockdown, with figures showing almost one in 10 COVID-19 cases has been transmitted at work.
    A narrow majority of the community wants political leaders to phase out the use of lockdowns and border controls as more people are vaccinated, amid a sharp fall in the number who are reluctant to get a jab, writes David Crowe about a new survey.
    Three weeks after it outlined its much-publicised road map for living with COVID-19, Singapore is returning to a partial lockdown for a month.
    More from Crowe on the survey where Barnaby Joyce was really on the nose with a 29% net unpopularity.
    Matt Wade lays out how the lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne could send the whole economy into reverse.
    The Australian reports that technical failures with the government’s MyGov platform have left people unable to access urgently needed financial relief via the website, causing long queues outside Centrelink offices yesterday.
    The SMH editorial says that mental health is becoming our biggest lockdown concern.
    Despite this being the most scientific of all ages, capable of producing highly effective vaccines a year after the SARS-COV-2 virus was identified ( Russian scientists actually achieved this in six months), poor leadership, ignorance, stubbornness and irresponsible media, (broadcast and social), are making this pandemic much worse than it needs to be, explains Professor John Dwyer.
    Our lives are changing profoundly, but we can’t succumb to cynicism and hopelessness, urges Lenore Taylor.
    Workers who have endured the slowest wage growth on record will never make up for the hit to their weekly pay packets caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with the Reserve Bank warning inertia could hold back incomes for years, reports Shane Wright.
    NSW’s hospitality and entertainment sectors are pleading for certainty about when they can reopen after Premier Gladys Berejiklian assured the construction industry that it would reopen on July 31.
    Michael Pascoe goes to town on the construction industry scoring political mates’ rates. He says that for a tough industry, there seem to be plenty of cry-babies in this industry that is suffering a relative hiccup in the middle of an absolute boom.
    Peter Lewis writes that with NSW’s pandemic strategy in tatters, Australians are piling on the state they love to hate.
    Liam Mannix explains the irrationality of assessing and acting on risk.
    Ross Gittins believes that getting electric cars on the road in Australia could be easier than we think.
    Jack Waterford makes a case to re-imagine Anzac Day and phase out ADF and RSL’s ownership.
    Michaela Whitbourn tells us that Christian Porter and one of his lawyers look like they will have to cough up a cool $500000 to Jo Dyer.
    Hayden O’Connor writes about Josh Frydenberg destroying his ‘nice guy’ image.,15312
    If Crown loses its Victoria licence, the hit for James Packer would be enormous. Most of his wealth is tied up in his 37 per cent stake in Crown and his lifestyle is funded from the hundreds of millions of dollars it generates, explains Elizabeth Knight.
    And Karen Maley tells us how James Packer killed his golden-egg laying goose.
    Peter Martin opines that, when COVID is behind us, Australians are going to have to pay more tax.
    Stephen Alones reckons Tokyo’s Olympic Games could turn into a global horror story.
    Police have arrested a former member of the Defence Force and seized chemicals that could be used to manufacture explosives during a major operation in Picton, south of Sydney. Investigators are looking into whether Michael Brown, 54, who allegedly has extensive training with bombs from his military experience, is a “doomsday prepper” or was preparing for an act of terrorism using the chemicals he had collected.
    The damage to coral reefs from bleaching during marine heatwaves is similar to that wrought on forests during bushfires – animal habitat is destroyed and the diversity of wildlife so highly prized in these ecosystems is lost, explains Mike Foley.
    Meanwhile, Australia’s global lobbying offensive to keep the Great Barrier Reef off the world heritage “in danger” list has secured support from at least nine of the 21-member committee that will make the decision, according to a diplomatic email seen by Guardian Australia.
    One of Australia’s most prominent conservationists and official “Beach Ambassador” for Tourism Australia, Brad Farmer, is urging the Morrison Government to do more in protecting our coastal resources.,15310
    “It’s our waste, it’s our problem”, said Scott Morrison as he announced the nation’s waste export ban culminating in 2024. Not really. It’s a good thing Australia has banned solid waste dumping to the Third World but we have left a gaping, toxic loophole; burning plastics for energy. Luke Stacey investigates.
    The global rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic is set to drive greenhouse gas emissions that stoke climate change to all-time highs, a Paris-based International Energy Agency says.
    Professor Martin Loosemore says that the problem with employment services is that the providers profit more than job seekers. Another triumph of outsourcing!
    Excess deaths in India during the pandemic could be a staggering 10 times the official COVID-19 toll, likely making it modern India’s worst human tragedy, according to new research.
    Multiple “Arsehole of the Week” nominee Harvey Weinstein has been extradited to California to face sexual assault charges.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope is on a roll.

    John Shakespeare

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Peter Broelman

    Mark David

    A Mark Knight catch up

    John Spooner

    Fiona Katauskas

    Simon Letch

    Andrew Dyson

    From the US

  9. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s efforts.

    Today marks Day 1 of a proper lockdown in Sydney, something the govt should’ve implemented from the beginning. Coupled with retail finally being closed on the weekend and the pause on most tradies moving about, I am hopeful that infections should start falling.

  10. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 6:55 am
    Jaeger @ #4 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 6:54 am

    Heavy flooding hits central China, affecting tens of millions

    Torrential rainfall and burst rivers swamp Henan cities, killing at least three in Zhengzhou and trapping province residents

    Cue Zerlo to say either:
    1. It’s Fake News, or
    2. The West’s floods are worse!

    My wager is on point 2. 🙂

  11. Michael Rolland: Don’t you think that people are tiring of lockdowns?
    Expert: They don’t seem to have grasped the alternative, which is rampant infections.
    Rolland: When do you think Sydney will come out of lockdown?
    Expert: End of August at the earliest.

  12. From WB article

    The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%.

    How how how “Labor is down one to 35%” possible?

    Again what has Albanese done wrong to get “Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. “

  13. Ven:

    How how how “Labor is down one to 35%” possible?
    Again what has Albanese done wrong to get “Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. “

    Margin of error fluctuations I’d guess. The 2PP top line has the LNP slowly sinking

  14. Conservative Australia is approaching a moment of truth. The pressure on the Morrison government to pledge net-zero carbon emissions at 2050 cannot be delayed or averted and the speed of global politics now makes this goal mainstream, not radical, writes Paul Kelly. Well fancy that!

    In my opinion “net-zero carbon emissions at 2050 ” will too little too late by that date because the proverbial’ s**t is already in the air and will not wait till 2050 to hit the roof.
    The Insurance industry is fast approaching a stage (probably in less than decade) where they will refuse to insure for natural disasters

  15. I suppose it was on radio shoutback.

    Just heard Morrison on the radio defending his incompetent govt’s failed vaccine roll out etc.

    He’s getting desperate & shouty. Using ridiculous arguments to support his false claim that his govt has done well.

  16. BK thanks for your roundup

    Bruce Haigh tweeted that Scotty had learnt to disappear when there was trouble as a childhood response

  17. For the second year in a row Mrs BK has been denied the opportunity for a family celebration of her birthday. She turned 75 today.

  18. Thank you, BK.

    Record fires in Yakutsk, heavy flooding in central China – with rain reported in cm rather than mm, snowpack trashed in California, and have a look at the red line in the Greenland snow melt graph – see link below.

    But note: warm seas have generated more snowfall on Greenland which this year has GAINED ice mass and has thus contributed to a reduction in the rate of sea level rise.

  19. Does anyone else agree that the “weather crises” have been increasing lately? Floods, fires, landslides coming in groups rather than singly?

  20. Lizzie

    Yes. Most definitely. The earth is experiencing quite a bit of imbalance.

    I’m actually optimistic. This year will be the catalyst for real change for the better.

  21. Victoria: Reported yesterday: 22 new local cases and 1 new case acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
    – 18,099 vaccine doses were administered
    – 59,355 test results were received

    All linked.

  22. Climate outlook overview
    Issued: 15 July 2021

    * August to October rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia. In some areas of western WA there are near-equal chances of a wetter or drier three months. Parts of western Tasmania are likely to see below median rainfall.

    * Maximum temperatures for August to October are likely to be above median for the northern tropics, and western and south-eastern parts of Australia. For south-east Queensland extending into north-east NSW, below median daytime temperatures are more likely.

    * Above median minimum temperatures for August to October are likely Australia-wide.

    * Large parts of the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than average, with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is looking likely. This can favour above average winter–spring rainfall for parts of Australia. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, with three of seven models suggesting La Niña thresholds may be reached during spring. La Niña increases the chances of above average spring rainfall for much of eastern and northern Australia.

  23. Happy birthday Mrs BK.
    I have no doubt that BK will still find a way to make a significant date special and that the family will Zoom, phone, FaceTime with you.
    My son is similarly “caught”, with a birthday on Sunday and living in one of the three particularly restricted Sydney LGAs.

  24. From Guardian blog..

    The vast majority of new Covid cases in Spain in the past five weeks were detected among non-vaccinated people, the health minister Carolina Darias said on Monday, as new infections rose by 27,286.

    Just 5.5% of new cases within the period were detected among people who had been fully vaccinated, Darias said, adding 11.4% were partially vaccinated and 83.1% were unvaccinated.

    “We must keep up the rhythm of vaccination we have reached,” the minister told a news conference. “This will give us an important level of protection to allow us to enjoy the summer.”

    The number of new cases per day in Spain has been steadily rising since late June, with the 14-day incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants rising to 622.4 on Tuesday.

    The country of 46.9 million people has so far reported a total of just under 4.2 million cases and 81,148 deaths.

    It is the third fastest country at vaccinating its population, according to database Our World In Data, lagging behind only Canada and the UK with 51.3% of Spaniards fully vaccinated and 62.1% at least partially vaccinated.

    Has SfM updated Australia’s projected vaccination rate?
    When will we achieve required 80% ?
    Lockdowns till May 2022?

  25. lizzie @ #32 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 6:39 am

    Does anyone else agree that the “weather crises” have been increasing lately? Floods, fires, landslides coming in groups rather than singly?

    I think some of it has to do with the reporting.

    We are more likely to hear about certain events now wherever they occur, where as in the past our media was more focused on only certain locations.

  26. Now things may have got biggerer and worserer due to climate change but having uber crap weather in both hemispheres about now is I reckon fairly sop. The seasons in each hemisphere are gearing up for change.

  27. lizziesays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 8:39 am
    Does anyone else agree that the “weather crises” have been increasing lately? Floods, fires, landslides coming in groups rather than singly?

    Agree. We are having 1 in 100 years, 1 in 50 year weather events at increased frequency and at greater intensity for the last 3-4 years all over the world.
    We may have already reached atleast half of the 1.5 ℃ increase cap, which the Paris Conference wanted to have.

  28. This is in response to Bezos and his foray into space. Agree 1000 percent

    Molly Jong-Fast
    You know what’s cooler than going to space? Paying your employees a living wage.

  29. Ben Potter
    Another experiment in “living with the virus” is aborted … Singapore reimposes restrictions after just two days

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