Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 26 of 36
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  1. I notice that Harvey Norman has incorporated “for your essentials” into their advertising. I’m sure that Gladys appreciates these little definitions.

  5. True poroti. I should not be expecting a decline yet. The modelling suggests a change at about 7-10 days, not 4.

    However, I am expecting it to be levelled off due to the prior restrictions. The growth is concerning me, as is there the growth is occurring as it is breaking containment lines where the highest restrictions of mobility have been put in place.

  7. Griff @ #1254 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 11:31 am

    True poroti. I should not be expecting a decline yet. The modelling suggests a change at about 7-10 days, not 4.

    However, I am expecting it to be levelled off due to the prior restrictions. The growth is concerning me, as is there the growth is occurring as it is breaking containment lines where the highest restrictions of mobility have been put in place.

    I think that could read -“However, I *was* expecting ..”

  14. It seems the only point that Berejiklian has in talking about vaccinations is to divert the focus away from her inaction.

    New vaccinations will have little effect on the current situation while more stringent actions will have a direct impact in the short term.

  15. @ShoebridgeMLC tweets

    “Most people who contact Service NSW are worried about getting in trouble” says Premier as record numbers of Covid cases are announced. Then threatens people “will have the law thrown at them” if they do something wrong. Threats like this scare people into not coming forward.

    This is not the messaging we get in other states like Victoria which focus on positive steps, collective action and information, not threats.

  16. just personally I think WB should institute a limit of say 2 posts per minute per poster. Five and over gets a bit much.

  17. Hazzard basically saying they are running behind the virus because they don’t know what to do. There wasn’t and still isn’t a pandemic plan. As we’ve read, the last national pandemic workshop was in the early years of the Rudd government.

  22. Has the media asked about the green shoots?

    Rafael Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein
    ·
    11m
    124 – highest # for NSW outbreak. Expected to go higher

    @GladysB
    ” .. at least 48 who were infectious during that time. There’s no doubt, again, that we anticipate CASE NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO GO UP BEFORE THEY START TO COME DOWN & we need to brace ourselves for that..”

  23. Griff at 11:31
    With the NZ lock down daily numbers tripled over the first 10 days. The lock down meant infection within a household got a real kick along. With Gladys having meandered her way to some semblance of a ‘lock down’ the time lines may be a wee bit different. 🙂

  24. Bill Shorten
    @billshortenmp
    ·
    7m
    3 people in disability accommodation in Sydney and one of their carers positive for COVID. None are fully vaccinated. Thinking of those people and their families but bloody angry that we have got to this. #COVID19Aus

  25. Confessions ,
    That would be great.

    Or WB could get a pay per post. 1 free post a day, 50 cents a post for the first 3 posts after, then 1$ per addition post per day.

    WB, you’d be rich!

  26. It will be interesting to see if David Speers tries to shut down any criticism of vaccinations, or NSW infections, by Shorten.

  27. “ Well I don’t know why I came here tonight.
    I’ve got the feeling that something ain’t right.
    I’m so scared in case I fall off my chair,
    And I’m wondering how I’ll get down the stairs.
    Clowns to the left of me!
    Jokers to the right!
    Here I am stuck in the middle with you.
    Yes I’m stuck in the middle with you,
    And I’m wondering what it is I should do.
    It’s so hard to keep this smile from my face.
    Losing control and running all over the place.
    Clowns to the left of me!
    Jokers to the right!
    Here I am stuck in the middle with you.”

    _________

    With ‘friends’ like this, Anastasia obviously is in little need of enemies:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/premier-doesn-t-want-to-offend-after-rebuke-over-opening-ceremony-20210722-p58bvs.html

  29. Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 11:36 am

    It seems the only point that Berejiklian has in talking about vaccinations is to divert the focus away from her inaction.

    Yep, she’s doing a classic Morrison. It’s somebody else who is to blame. In this case a lol because it is Morrison’s ‘fault’. If people were vaccinated inn the numbers we were told they would be NSW wouldn’t be in this position.

  30. Gladys train-wreck, ‘we dont know alternative numbers’, ‘we know we have prevented thousands and thousands of people catching the virus’

  32. U.S. COVID update: Biggest one-day increase since April, hospitalizations up 15% in 2 days

    – New cases: 58,826 …………………… – New deaths: 375

    – In hospital: 29,397 (+2,254)
    – In ICU: 7,519 (+473)

    625,808 total deaths now

  33. poroti @ #1269 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:47 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 11:36 am

    It seems the only point that Berejiklian has in talking about vaccinations is to divert the focus away from her inaction.

    Yep, she’s doing a classic Morrison. It’s somebody else who is to blame. In this case a lol because it is Morrison’s ‘fault’. If people were vaccinated inn the numbers we were told they would be NSW wouldn’t be in this position.

    That may hold some truth, but she has to deal with the situation in front of her.

    That’s where her focus should be.

    Like all the origin distractions, they become irrelevant when faced with an outbreak.

  34. A few nights ago, while watching Annabel Crabb’s “Ms Represented” (which was excellent), my US-born wife commented that casual sexism is rampant in Australia. In her view, Australia is way behind the US. This was based on her own personal experience of living and working in Australia.

    I responded that things were changing for the better. My wife disagreed. After seeing Coates’ appalling caveman-like performance in Tokyo, I think she might be right.

  37. “I don’t see much point in calls for Gladys to resign”

    Me either. She needs to own every last second of this self-inflicted lockdown. And the lies! Again today she deliberately understated the number infectious in the community as 48. It was 87 (over two thirds of new cases) who were at least infectious for part of the time. We just have to assume that everything was jake with the additional 39. She probably thanked them.

    Next Saturday, the 31st, she has committed to re-opening construction. She said that two days ago:
    “There definitely will be construction on the 31st,” the premier said.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/20/nsw-covid-update-berejiklian-pledges-to-reopen-construction-industry-by-31-july-as-state-records-78-cases (for the pair of compulsive liars on this site)

    She committed to this without any reference whatsoever to infection trends. One has to assume it is because of the kicking she is getting from the likes of Hadley and the rest of 2GB. The only ones she really listens to.

  39. There were restrictions on Victorian construction sites
    There were testing buses at big worksites and companies had to implement rules of workers not going to different sites
    And based on size of project only 75 percent workforce on any given day

  40. Vic
    Three days ago, some 6% of the daily cases were isolating for the entirety of their infectious period. Yesterday that was 73% and today it is 92%.

    Vs

    @GladysB
    ” .. at least 48 who were infectious during that time. There’s no doubt, again, that we anticipate CASE NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO GO UP BEFORE THEY START TO COME DOWN & we need to brace ourselves for that..”

  43. I see Darren Chesters tongue in cheek apology and I raise him a simple “38 of 38”.

    Australia is last of the 38 OECD. So stuff your excuses and blame shifting you pawn of the conservatives, a party of ‘personal responsibility’ who are so desperate to avoid it themselves. Now, sure, Australia may improve over time in their vaccinations, but as of the time when half the country went into full lockdown, Australia’s vaccine rollout was dead last in the OECD. So, represent your electorate you hack, not your party and demand to know why Morrison didnt contract more Pfizer and Moderna earlier OR, failing that, didnt improve the quarantine system?

    You and your mob stuffed it up, lazily sat on your hands and when the chickens came to roost you avoid accountability with more fervour than you govern with. The party of robodebt, pathetically paltry unemployment benefits and tightening the screws on working conditions dont want to be judged – its everyone elses fault and it is hard. Wah wah wah you whiny hypocrites.

  45. Victoria

    I can understand why residents of NSW don’t know about the support Victoria has been receiving from their Gov, unless they listen to the daily pressers (and why should they). Gladys also continues to pretend that they are better off, better supported.

  46. @bairdjulia
    ·
    2m
    Love how John Coates is explaining here how big and important opening ceremonies are – costing 75-100 million – to a woman who runs a state with a GSP of 360 odd billion.

  47. Lizzie

    In order to get cooperation, Victoria has to implement some incentive.
    Is NSW doing the same.
    If not, they are never going to drive down this outbreak.
    Victoria learned the hard way last year
    NSW do have hindsight

  48. @MJA_Editor tweets

    COVID vaccine rollout a public policy failure? You be the judge. Glacial roll out. Inadequate supplies mRNA vaccine currently despite high demand because of delta outbreaks. Failure of vaccine choice. Confusing messaging. With vaccination only way forward.
    _________________

    @SenatorJordan tweets

    My heart is sinking at the devastating, emerging reports of COVID cases in a NSW disability “group home”. The government MUST get all disabled people and support workers across the country vaccinated NOW.

    Any deaths will be on Morrison’s hands.
    #auspol #covidnsw

  49. Gladys bangs on and on about lack of public compliance while Weimer says that he is really impressed with the way Victorians are complying.

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