First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.
There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.
Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.
The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.
All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.
The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.
The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.
124, only 67 known to others. Up to 87 infectious in the community. Spreading far and wide beyond the 3 LGA’s. Western Sydney is going off and does not have the enhanced restrictions. Also in Central and Southern Sydney and Wollongong.
Major problem 🙁
It is Thursday, we should be starting to see the effect of restrictions. We need increased restrictions across Greater Sydney.
”
Victoriasays:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:38 am
Ven
Do you know how many exposure sites there are in NSW at present?
Some commentary on Twitter is that there are less exposure sites in NSW than Victoria.
I dont know if this is at all accurate.
”
No I don’t know at the moment for your question. They should mention that in press conference. I heard on ABC that there are about 350 exposure sites in VIC.
I don’t see much point in calls for Gladys to resign.
C@tmomma @ #1070 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 7:43 am
John you can GAGF!!!!
ItzaDream,
We did not hear why Dr Chant has been away for the last two days so far as I am aware.
Its out of control.She wont admit thats for sure.
steve davis says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 11:09 am
Scott
Shes still popular according to that Resolve polling.
——–
That means nothing when she can not control the flow of the spread, and has been incompetent since the ruby princess debacle
Andrews is popular as well , it doesnt stop the media calling for him to resign
Scott
I have a feeling it will come at some point.Will take longer under a compliant media.
Big A
Yes. That’s why I think using same same against the LNP is good.
However that can only be by the NSW Labor party. It’s the party that has reformed and cleaned up its act. (so we hear. I still think there needs to be public theatre to show the public this is the case)
Then just point to the state LNP before ICAC.
Federally Labor is right on message with a good anti corruption policy.
I don’t understand why Gladys is so reluctant to restrict movement in larger parts of NSW. Who is guiding her decisions?
‘poroti says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 11:08 am
boerwar
The cat in that gif is a portrait of an actual cat in Canberra last night or this morning. brrrrrrrrrrrr.’
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Yep. We were there. IMO it is why god invented electric blankets.
Gladys should say ‘sorry’. Now.
This updated chart for NSW is very concerning when looking at the sum of the lower two bars.
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/aus/2020/yacht-charter-v16/index.html?key=1XTkaLcD41h0ihEc3FDZTuaFks3GTSUdUyXl4ZStxIjs&location=docsdata
Gladys also has a problem in that she praises the great numbers who are coming forward for tests, but it seems the system can’t cope with the results.
Griff
It took 10 days for the effect of NZ’s ‘proper’ lock down to show up and it showed up dramatically. With the Delta it may mean a ‘proper’ not ‘mock’ lock down would take a little longer.
lizzie @ #1203 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 11:15 am
Private for-profit enterprise?
Gladys ‘Should see the impact of the stricter restrictions in the next couple of days/next week.’
I had expected to see the restrictions reflected by now.
“Unfortunately,” has replaced “please” as Gladys’s high use word.
NSW, I presume?
The more she emphasises how infectious and “cruel” the Delta strain is, which was well known, the more she highlights how recklessly slow she was to shut it down tight. Unfortunately.
“Why would you be disappointed if we didn’t increase? You wish for disease, illness and potentially death?
Because you perceive it to have some sort of advantage for the ALP?
_______________
Incredible isn’t it? Although, on a par with that Grimace guy who during the bushfires hoped LNP seats to burn. I suppose there might be Coalition fanatics who wish for similar things for Labor seats but I have yet to encounter them. Of course it must have more to do with mental health than politics surely.”
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Um no geniuses. I’m pretty sure his point is that with the increased exposure in the community, there are almost certainly increased number of cases, which we hope to know about. However if these are not being picked up by the testing (ie the daily figures we get), then we are all in even bigger trouble – since it means a) we can no longer get a handle of the actual number of cases and b) testing is not doing its job.
Lose lose for everyone – especially the government.
Berejiklian just deployed ‘With all due respect.’
And a ‘please know’.
These NSW pressers are so lightweight!
guytaur @ #1053 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 10:13 am
That is actually a very good line, guytaur.
Berejiklian is now lying outright about no jurisdiction ‘ever beating’ a Delta outbreak.
Victoria did.
“Up to 87 infectious in the community”
Crikey!
As for Coates: I have a mate in the Tokyo media contingent. There is more coming.
Why do they say that delta has never been eliminated once in the community? I thought Victoria did it just a couple of months ago?
The problem for Berejikilian’s narrative is Victoria did beat Delta.
Still no Credlin or Sales then after over 4 weeks?
So Dan has no trouble saying zero cases.. Gladys always says “as close to zero as possible” a totally meaningless statement..
Berejiklian expects case numbers to get worse before than get better.
Thanks boerwar. Gaslighting then.
boerwar
Gladys has said several times that no one has had such heavy restrictions as NSW.
Guytaur
And if they beat it again, then Gladys will look more of a failure.
Berejiklian flagged a possible partial lifting of restrictions next Friday and hence flagged that some lockdown will remain.
After looking at today’s NSW Resolve Strategic numbers Gladys is probably pretty sure she could get away with reciting ‘Little Bo Peep’ and the sheeple would still love her.
Thanks for nothing, Gladys.
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 11:24 am
boerwar
Gladys has said several times that no one has had such heavy restrictions as NSW.’
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Yes, and no, IMO. Closing down construction industry was heavy, IMO.
Berejiklian hammering vaccinations. Quite rightly.
Just saw the Coates humiliation of AP at the press conference…there are no words….
https://twitter.com/mjrowland68/status/1417962353795026944
Maybe one….pig
@andrewwhiteau tweets
If we want life to return to normal every person needs to get the first vaccine available to them and we must get people above the poverty line and out of precarious work that drives desperate behaviour.
It is an insidious combo that fuels our predicament. It’s why removing JobSeeker hurdles + boosting it with the Covid supplement halted surges previously. #80aDay
‘Can I say that…’ bingo.
Can you imagine the snide remarks from Berejiklian, Morrison and the Murdoch media if this was happening in Victoria?
Steve Davis
Yes. The contrast is going to be stark.
People still holding back because they are “worried about getting into trouble”.
Now where would that idea have come from.
And then she says you will have the “law thrown at you”.
FFS
‘…is working very hard to…’ bingo.
Ooooo, Gladys talking about letting it rip.
She’s saying once everyones vaccinated then we’ll be talking about serious issues only. So that’s a let her rip stategy right there.
Would love some followup and critical thinking form the press here.
‘…we are really grateful for people’s patience…’ bingo