Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 22 of 36
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  1. The next acute national problem in relation to vaccinations is when all the terrible mistrust that Morrison has sown gets harvested at a time when there are more vaccines than there are unvaccinated people willing to take them.

    Would you buy a vaccine off Morrison? His finagling with the truth in that space are legion. His remarkable acknowledgement that he is trying to bully ATAGI shows just how much you can trust him on vaccines.

  2. Don’t forget the other side of the Morrison COVID-19 SNAFU:

    Long delays for COVID-19 test results in parts of NSW are causing some people to miss vaccination appointments and lose work as one of the private clinics processing results continues to be overwhelmed amid record testing rates.

    The Herald has been inundated with dozens of stories from people whose lives are in limbo while they await their test results from Laverty Pathology – one of the labs outsourced to process COVID-19 tests. Many have been waiting since Friday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/no-patience-left-lengthy-delays-plague-covid-testing-regime-amid-record-swabs-20210721-p58box.html

    The Private Sector will always do it better, so they say.

  3. She still has support. It appears that she’s Teflon-coated though if things get much worse the goodwill may wane:

    [‘Despite this, there is still plenty of goodwill for Berejiklian. An exclusive survey for the Herald shows she is still riding high in the popularity stakes. The latest Resolve Political Monitor asked 1100 NSW voters for their preferred premier, and 55 per cent nominated Berejiklian (down from 57 per cent in the previous survey).’] – SMH

  4. There’s a media pile-on on Gladys but they let Morrison off the hook for his failure to accept Pfizer’s offer last year and his failure to still not have purpose built quarantine in operation by now. WTF …??

  5. UK Cartoon time 🙂
    Martin Rowson on the UK’s demand for, and hatred of, passports

    Brian Adcock: Boris is never gonna shake off the Northern Ireland border problem. #BorisHasFailedBritain #northernirelandprotocol #BrexitShambles

    Patrick Blower on #SausageWars #EU #BorisJohnson

    Guy Venables on #Amazon #JeffBezos #BlueOrigin

    Christian Adams on #GavinWilliamson #LevellingUp #Education

    Kal has a gif on the Tokyo Olympics (well worth the clicking on):
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1417770521442328578
    PAUL THOMAS on an idea #Amazon #PrinceHarry #BlueOrigin

  6. lizzie @ #1058 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:25 am

    C@t

    They’re not on together.

    I do know this, lizzie. However, and I shouldn’t have presumed people could read my mind and realised that what I meant was that Bill Shorten will no doubt be listening intently to what James Campbell may say in the first segment of Insiders and will formulate a response to him if needed when he does his interview, with David Speers.

  7. Rex Douglas at 9:22 am

    If only Morrison had the skill to interpret ATAGI’s advice to people that encourages confidence.

    Gosh you are right. It is a real shame that Scotty doesn’t have any expertise in marketing .

  8. RE: Morrison taking credit for the work of Palacszk and QLD…

    Taking credit for soemone elses work (in the workplace) is in the definition of bullying behaviour.

  9. Jaeger@8.45
    “Coates gives the perfect example of an arrogant man who thinks he rules the world and has no respect for women.”
    If Coates is around for the Brisbane Games, his reception in Qld will be underwhelming.
    What a rude arrogant entitled prick.
    I thought the Olympic movement had rid itself of these types.
    Coates, a paid official has hijacked the BG so early in the process.

  10. Anyone else increasingly irritated by demands “How did we do?”, not only from online stores, but from AusPost.
    You delivered. Thanks for doing your job. If you lose my parcel, you’ll hear from me.

  11. Goll @ #1002 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:35 am

    Jaeger@8.45
    “Coates gives the perfect example of an arrogant man who thinks he rules the world and has no respect for women.”
    If Coates is around for the Brisbane Games, his reception in Qld will be underwhelming.
    What a rude arrogant entitled prick.
    I thought the Olympic movement had rid itself if these types.
    Coates, a paid official has hijacked the BG so early in the process.

    He’ll be 82 by then. If there is a ‘by then’.

  12. This was notification from Prahran market Last night.

    PrahranMarket
    @PrahranMarket
    *IMPORTANT UPDATE* DHHS has just advised that a confirmed COVID-positive shopper visited Prahran Market on Saturday 17th July between 9.40 am & 11.15 am. The Market will be closed tomorrow. For more information; COVID-19 Market Update http://bit.ly/2U13ILE

  13. BK
    “David Crowe and Shane Wright report that a former supreme court judge has labelled the federal government’s $660 million car park fund “corruption” amid warnings that ministers may have breached laws that required them to spend taxpayer funds in an efficient and ethical way.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-judge-labels-660-million-car-park-fund-corruption-20210721-p58bo3.html

    When Labor regains office federally some hard questions will need to be asked of who did this. Politicians flouting funding laws is unethical. Senior public servants doing so is highly illegal, if you have ever had to read the federal PS act. There will need to be a serious cleanout of the federal PS hierarchy in any new government.

    As with Trump in office, systems can only be corrupted this badly if many people go along with it.

  14. Lizzie

    Most organisations appreciate feedback of their service.

    It’s one easy way for them to gauge how their are tracking and also implement any things to assist in continuous improvement of their service.

  15. lizzie @ #1004 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:36 am

    Anyone else increasingly irritated by demands “How did we do?”, not only from online stores, but from AusPost.
    You delivered. Thanks for doing your job. If you lose my parcel, you’ll hear from me.

    Yes! And do you know the evil reason they do it? So they can sack an employee that gets bad reviews. A friend of ours who works at Coles told us this. So every time Coles sends one of those emails to us I always write him up for 5 star service. 🙂

  16. Socrates
    Labor should have an election policy of committing to immediately establish a well-defined and effective federal ICAC. That would give them a campaign hook to continually hammer home the egregious behaviour of this government.

  17. What an utter bastard!

    Amid the celebrations of Brisbane winning the right to host the 2032 Olympics, Australian Olympic Committee boss John Coates has ordered Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to attend the Tokyo 2020 opening ceremony in an awkward public exchange.

    The Queensland Premier had come under fire for travelling to Tokyo for the 2032 host announcement after pushing National Cabinet to reduce the number of international arrivals accepted by Australia due to the risk of the Delta variant of COVID-19.

    But Mr Coates, sitting with his arms crossed and directing his comments towards the assembled journalists, issued a stunning rebuke, insisting the Queensland Premier could not “hide” in her room and ordered her to go to understand the “traditional” processes behind the opening ceremony, which can cost upwards of $75 million.

    “You are going to the opening ceremony. I’m still the deputy chair of the candidature leadership group and so far as I understand, there will be an opening and closing ceremony in 2032 and all of you are going to get along there and understand the traditional parts of that, what’s involved in an opening ceremony, so none of you are staying behind and hiding in your rooms, alright?” Mr Coates said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/qld-premier-ordered-to-attend-tokyo-2020-opening-ceremony/100313366

  18. It shouldn’t be forgotten that AP was negative about the Olympic bid for some time and it was the pressure of the mayors obtaining federal support that brought her around.

  19. BK @ #1011 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:43 am

    Socrates
    Labor should have an election policy of committing to immediately establish a well-defined and effective federal ICAC. That would give them a campaign hook to continually hammer home the egregious behaviour of this government.

    They should put it on every Labor corflute in Australia!

  20. Victoria

    A couple of suppliers I use, that give excellent service in every way, don’t ever ask for reviews. They know that return orders are the proof.

  21. C@t

    I doubt very much that sacking people via an online review is even feasible.

    Some people will deliberately give bad reviews for the fun of it.

  22. davidwh @ #1013 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:43 am

    It shouldn’t be forgotten that AP was negative about the Olympic bid for some time and it was the pressure of the mayors obtaining federal support that brought her around.

    You don’t speak to a woman, let alone a woman Premier, the way John Coates did to Premier Palacszjuk though. In public!

  23. Victoria @ #1016 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:44 am

    C@t

    I doubt very much that sacking people via an online review is even feasible.

    Some people will deliberately give bad reviews for the fun of it.

    I’ve been told it by a number of people: ‘Can you please give me a positive review when you get the email?’

    Honestly, do you really think Morrison’s government cares about such things? The reasons an employer can sack an employee are intentionally very broad.

  24. Chris O’Keefe
    @cokeefe9
    ·
    15m
    Hearing NSW case numbers above 120 today. A jump in the number infectious in the community too, another tough day. Testing rates are incredible though.
    @9NewsAUS

  25. C@t

    People of course want a positive review.

    It looks better for them, and they dont get questioned as to why the customer may have been unsatisfied with the service.

  26. Victoria have had 2 infectious in the community which is not ideal.

    If NSW have more than yesterday. I ask what the heck is going on.

  27. Civ down to 2 cases in the community it’s today while nsw was up to it’s highest in the wave at 73 yesterday.

    GB’s polling held up ok because Sydney people define their happiness purely by comparison to people from Melbourne.

    When Victoria eliminates the NSW induced outbreak and opens everything back up, and the Sydney mockdown keeps rolling on, the polling numbers will plummet.

    Also, rich of SM to blame atagi for providing accurate health advice. The reason baby boomers are holding back on AZ is because Scomo promised them that they could get pfizer if they wait. That was a mistake and massively undermined confidence in AZ even amongst the population that az is safe for. They should have been clear that AZ is safe and atagi recommended for over 60s, that pfizer will never be available for over 60s, and that eventually vaccine passports will be required to do anything fun. That gives boomers no excuse to wait and would have massively accelerated the rollout

  28. So Brisbane has won something no one else wanted? A bit like Stephen Bradbury except that the other competitors didn’t show up. Well, a win is a win I suppose.

    Bidding for the Olympics probably seemed like a good idea to the great and good of Tokyo back in 2013.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:44 am
    BK @ #1011 Thursday, July 22nd, 2021 – 9:43 am

    Socrates
    Labor should have an election policy of committing to immediately establish a well-defined and effective federal ICAC. That would give them a campaign hook to continually hammer home the egregious behaviour of this government.
    They should put it on every Labor corflute in Australia!
    ________________________________
    Hilarious! The party of Obeid and ICAC

  30. It was only three days ago that the Home Affairs minister, Karen Andrews, was saying that:

    ● the Games would bring in untold riches to SE Queensland (and indeed the nation) but,

    ● Annastacia Palaszczuk was a hypocrite for her attendance at the vital final negotiations in Japan, even though it was virtually compulsory.

    My barber, an unusually slow-witted fellow who usually talks about little else but Rugby League (and can’t cut hair in the normal sense of the word), tried a new tack on Monday by offering that Palaszczuk should be condemned for her trip.

    When I asked him why, his answer was, “Well, you know…”

  31. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 9:54 am
    _________________________
    Good to see you supporting supported workers.

  32. Congratulations to Brisbane. Having said that, no one is particular interested in the actual Olympics taking place in real time.

    Every one I speak to says the same thing, there is a pandemic, why are they still having it.

    Not a great advertisement at this time and place me thinks.

  33. Voice endeavour

    I’m thinking many people in NSW still believe lockdown is ending at end of July.
    Has GladysB indicated in strong terms that lockdown will not end as outlined so far?

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